@evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com can you run a query for me real quick? What is the largest gap in GSAx between teams in one game on record. Where does tonight's NJD-NYI match land?

Apologies for everyone who is not on the other site, but I'm not rewriting the whole thread. Here are my thoughts on the state of the public NHL xG models. threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...

Decided to look more at this and these graphs are using @evolving-hockey.com's xG (because they have an excellent query tool that makes it easy). So, while new shot designations are relevant, I think this graph screams that the true culprit was the warped xG fabric of the chip tracking.

Most pbp derived rush timing is several seconds longer than actual rush timing, more evidence some kind of continuous variable stretching 10 seconds or so might be a better proxy for rush chances. Not sure how to deal with the relatively large number of rush chances that are 21+ seconds by pbp

Gonna promote my own thing here: open.substack.com/pub/puckover...

Posted on the other site, but since I think these folks are more active here, probably worth cross-posting. A lot of xG models are kinda busted rn. Almost every team is shooting under expected. This is @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com, @moneypuck.bsky.social, and @topdownhockey.bsky.social

F*** it 13F/5D F1: Noesen-Hischier-Tatar F2: Sprong-Glass-Bratt F3: Tatar-Mercer-Meier F4: Cotter-Dowling-Haula FO: Meier-Hischier-Bratt FD: Haula-Lazar-Bastian D1: Hughes-Pesce D2: Kovacevic-Dumoulin DD: Dillon-Pesce DO: Hughes-Kovacevic

Keefe is giving Markstrom a big vote of confidence here. He's saying "You're our guy, and we know you'll come through" because if he doesn't Keefe is gonna deservedly face questions about why he went consecutive games with a goalie performing dramatically worse than his backup.

Luke. Brett. Guys.

NJ finishes with 1 point out of a possible 6 in a homestand against teams below us in the standings.

Hockey sucks.

Jesper with some FILTHY mits.

Bright side: Keefe finally can't put Jack Hughes in the shootout

JFC

Keep Mercer off the ice for the rest of this overtime.

"Not much Markstrom can do"? PK. He was on top of the puck.

Over the past two months, Noesen has the 6th worst goals scored above expected in the NHL (1 goal on 6.8 xGs) Insanely, Auston Matthews (7 goals on 14 xGs) is 3rd worst.

ERIK HAULA IS HEATING UP

Devils have been insanely lucky tonight tbh. Canucks have hit two posts, broke two sticks on one powerplay, Devils have gotten a couple lucky bounces. You replay this exact game, they may lose 4-1. But hockey gonna hockey -- we've had plenty of these go the other way the last two seasons.

Devils deserved that. They've been leaving the slot wide open all night long.

Timo think's March is an instruction.

Timo absolutely BRINGING it tonight.

The Glass-Bratt duo having their first rough xG% game. I don't think they've been conspicuously bad -- Bratt's had a few good moments too. Raty-Sherwood-O'Connor should not be giving them the business like they have been. If they can bring it in the 3rd, that'll help tremendously.

Oooo that was pretty!

I want Justin Dowling to be better. I feel like he does all the right things, but just doesn't have the horsepower he needs to make the impact he should.

If the Devils lose the this game, then they REALLY need to take care of business against Chicago. Otherwise you're on a 4-game skid and really need to go .500 the rest of the way. It can fall apart real fast.

I get playing Timo and Nico together in order to have a true top line talent on our top line, but it still feels like Timo's skills fit most naturally along Mercer who has simply never found out how to contribute without a driver.

Strong start. Best they've looked in 4-5 periods.

Idk. I feel like Markstrom shows up tonight.

Devils are cheeks

I don't know that you can continue to alternate these goalies. At least not until we get a playoff spot secured. Jake Allen is playing like one of the best goalies in the NHL, and Markstrom is very clearly still working his way back into game shape. He's costing us games while Allen is stealing them

Probably my least favorite thing about the Keefe Devils is how much they turtle when leading. This team was 3rd in possession when leading (7th in other score states) the past two seasons, and has fallen to 17th (8th other states) this year.

Can't wait for the stat cards to this game to show Nico. Dudes been an absolute horse tonight. NJ won 20 faceoffs, he won 13 of them alone. Made Cotter's chance out of nothing. Buried the first goal. Gonna log 20+. Leads NJ in xG. Vintage Nico 200-ft game night.

According to @evolving-hockey.com's numbers, among skaters with 200+ minutes played this season, Simon Nemec is the least valuable NHLer in BOTH GAR and xGAR. A frankly unfathomable Sophomore slump for one of the best young players in the NHL last season.

Kovacevic was just so solid. Bratt went beast move. And the Cody Glass Experience ™️ lives for another day!

A lot of guys played well tonight, but I think we all know who the true MVP of this game was.

Just try to survive the Luke Hughes shifts so that true offensive juggernauts Brian Dumoulin and Jonathan Kovacevic can get to work

Paul Cotter got a taste of the bench and liked it, it seems. Speaking at someone who also would prefer to get paid not to work.... I get it.

Nobody almost scores like Timo Meier

15% net swing in playoff probability on the line tonight. No pressure.

Yeah so Twitter sucks and I haven't posted here in a minute so here's a runthrough of my misadventures over there: 1) It is clear that the Devils ceiling has been massively lowered by injuries, and that they should "go for it" any anyway at the TDL x.com/CJTDevil/sta...

Glanced at @evolving-hockey.com's RAPM statistics for Forwards and Defensemen to examine their year-over-year predictivity of one another via correlation and via t-value in multiple linear regression model by year just to see if there have been any notable changes. There haven't, really.

The 4 Nations Faceoff is quickly approaching! ... In the meantime, I thought we'd share our current picks for the 24-25 end of year awards (as always, based on @evolving-hockey.com GAR & xGAR metrics): Hart: Draisaitl Q. Hughes / Hellebuyck McDavid / Harley / T. Wilson / J. Hughes / Hischier

When Jack Hughes is a +1 or greater, the Devils are 20-2-2. When Jack Hughes is even (+0), the Devils are 9-9-1. When Jack Hughes is a minus, the Devils are 1-9-3.

Copied from my post at The Bad Place We'll start with @hockeyviz.com Interestingly, Necas/Rantanen are minus play-drivers while Hall/Drury are positive. The value gap is all from production (finishing/setting) and penalty±. In all. It's two back-end top-liners and two middle-6ers. Even trade.

This trade is gonna take forever to analyze. Except for Chicago's side. What the hell are those guys doing lol

During this time, the Capitals are 27th in the NHL with a 5v5 xG% of 44.7% (adjusted for score and venue). Nearly ALL of the overachievement is coming from Logan Thompson who has allowed just 9 5v5 goals on 21 xGs during the 8-0-3 run.

Devils pretty much in the dead center of the prospect pool rankings which is good for a team with as many good young NHLers as they have. However, the pool is led by 3 stud defencemen and VERY little forward talent. Here is the lukewarm writeup for their top forward prospect.

Devils still top 5 in Cup Probability. Higher than Washington. Edmonton clear favorites.

Keefe really likes what he's seen from Bastian lately, mentioning that he's been on the ice for 3 of the 4 goals we've scored at 5v5 in that time (his overall numbers support that praise, though it gets less impressive if you use any more than 4 games) Regardless I wanted to look at those goals.