Yes we hear that US tariffs are at record highs daily. But this chart from @FT really brings it home in terms of both quantum and history. 😮

There you have it. Nike lowers margin view on tariffs (despite huge tailwind from lapping discounting) & China (15% of sales) overwhelming upside from 85% of rest of world. BTW China also beat forecast this Q! Sandbagging expectations at its finest. 🙄 $NKE $ADDYY $DKS

Nike Direct -4% vs -14% in prior Q while wholesale had even bigger positive 14 point swing to +5%. Clearly this $NKE recovery will have $DKS etc playing much bigger role. Inventory also ok. Now onto call where management will once again set bar very very low 🙄 $ADDYY

Nike apparel flat vs -12% in prior Q. Sneakers -2% vs -9% in prior Q, including China improvement. Despite tariff hit, US margin up sequentially & steady for past 9 months. In Europe, Asia & China margin improved 300-700bp. In each region $NKE margin c400bp below peak.

$NKE margins not great but still better than forecast & at top end of (ridiculous) range. However, Nike brand sales flat/up everywhere bar China. Despite all their sandbagging hard to argue brand is in as deep a hole as it seemed to be in 12 months ago. $ADDYY $DKS

$NKE following same playbook every Q under Friend. Beat by a mile due to ridiculous guide & then give equally ridiculous guide way below consensus. Ground already laid in comments below despite a return to growth at both Nike brand & US. Not getting rewarded for it. 🙄

Laura Alber predicted this was coming but industry hoped cooler heads would prevail given ground realities & resulting big cost rises that vno player can absorb. Why furniture in his crosshairs given small political crumbs who knows! $WSM $RH $W

For all the headlines, Carnival latest to show how unfazed US (& European) consumers are. Yes they skew older with (appreciating) accumulated wealth but strength isn't limited to them as retail reporting showed. $CCL $XLY $XLF $XRT $WMT $AMZN $WSM $BBY $M $DG $AXP $V

Cartier has just taken prices up 10% on watches & 6% on jewelry in US only. To cover latest 39% tariffs on Switzerland. So much for foreign businesses eating the cost of tariffs. 😆 #luxury $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY $XLF $XLY

This from Darden is a pretty good take. While folks saw big jobs revision down as a disaster, $DRI says those were phantom jobs, so consumer resilience in the real world is not surprising. No change to view. $XLF $XLY $XRT $AMZN $WMT $BBY $WSM $LOW $V $MA

From Fedex Q, in words of both a sell-sider & the company. US consumer & small business volume healthy & best pricing in 2 years. $FDX says no sign of pull forward, that $AMZN Prime Week was good for retail & is confident about peak. $UPS $XLY $XRT $XLF $V $MA

Plus worth remembering luxury had a huge boom cycle post Covid like all goods. Doom mongers should note that indigestion is part of this too & why for example Cartier & Van Cleef continue to shine while leather suffers. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $PPRUY

Self-serving from Coach (as $TPR is direct beneficiary) but kernel of truth on luxury. Aggressive pricing by many, especially where newness is lacking, has cost them. But ton of this is economic. In Asia, European brands have huge legacy which hasn't gone anywhere. $RL $LVMUY $PPRUY $PRDSY

How much trouble US foods are in? Mills calls -5% organic in line & that investments are ‘paying off’. Meanwhile #1 US grocer, Walmart +4.8% organic & #2 Kroger is +3.8%. Massive share loss in the most stable part of retail. $GIS $KR $WMT $KHC $CPB $MDLZ $XLP

And not just the US consumer. $BAC commercial side also strong. US office real estate has been the only segment hitting turbulence & even that has improved this year. $XLF $XLY $XLI $JPM

$BAC CFO stresses US consumer resilience. Spending (accelerating YTD) & credit quality are strong. But $BAC also says checking balances even for lower-end are multiples of pre-Covid level, helped by relatively strong labor market. $XLF $XLY $JPM $WMT $AMZN $V $MA

Main standout in a strong retail sales report is re-acceleration in web spend. Up 10%+ for fist time since Feb & growth is highest since March 24. Not just $AMZN but also $WMT & other brick & mortar web sales. $W $WSM $XLF $XLY $V $MA $AXP

Durables spend strong with cars, electronics, furniture all healthy with only DIY soft. Folks may call it buying ahead of tariffs but even if that were case, consumers feel their finances are strong enough to do so. $WSM $BBY $AMZN $WMT $COST $TJX $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY

US retail sales ex gas/autos strong +5.4%. Led by online resuming double digit growth but also by discretionary categories like furniture, apparel & eating out all up very healthy 5%+ & generally accelerating. 💪 $XLY $XLF $WSM $AMZN $WMT $NKE $MCD $URBN $SPY

Friedman can't resist taking jealous potshots at $WSM stellar performance. Even high margin furnishings (which the $RH genius got rid off) are awful. Never mind that $RH got rid of truly beautiful (& $$$) decor pieces, flanking businesses that would have helped bigly now. 🤷‍♂️

Friedman now says furniture is never sold full price (BTW $RH discounting is on top of 30% member discount). Far cry from when he used to say (not long ago) he was the Hermes of home. Selling full price is why Hermes & Cartier have the multiples they have, Gary. $HESAY $CFRUY

Not only was shareholder letter full of this BS, Friedman actually regurgitated whole letter verbatim for first 20 minutes of call with zero additional colour. They don't even pretend to give you insights into the business anymore 😂 $RH $WSM $ARHS $W

This is of course Gary the ‘seer’ so many macro prognosticators hailed. Meanwhile the ‘Hermes’ of furniture seems to be more vulnerable to (actually soaring) stock market & tariffs than not just a terrific $WSM but even shock horror, Wayfair! $RH $ARHS $ETD $W

Man this $RH release is peak Gary BS. He barely talks about core. Now goes on & on about doing under $50million in UK & that Paris is the next big thing. Meanwhile cuts revenue guide, delays newness & cuts margin on tariffs 😂 $WSM $ARHS

US consumer strength is broad-based. Even strugglers like Best Buy & Macys near high end of plan & see no price resistance for newness. And both dollar stores say while lower end sentiment is dire, cohort spending is solid. 💪 $BBY $M $DLTR $DG $XLY $XLF

Never good to chase US retail when everyone's bullish but notable how upbeat most retailers are. $BAC says spend accelerated this year & still strong. Variety of retailers (here Dicks, Lowes, Urban) cite strength. $XLY $XLF $DKS $LOW $URBN $AMZN $HD $TJX $WSM

No fashion expert in any sense of the word but what looks like a glorified nightie is prominent at both Zara & at Ralph Lauren. 🤷

Cucinelli posted robust H1 profits and highlights strength in July-August strength as well strong order books, forecasting 10% growth in both '25 /& '26. Top tier luxury pulling further away from rest. $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY $PPRUY $BURBY

Add $ULTA to list. Comp highest in 2 years at +6.7% & vs 2.9% in prior Q. Chunky 90bp spike in gross margin. New CEO had way lowballed targets but strong outlook anyway. Sephora-Kohls hit fading. Another US retailer seeing strength & lifting guide. $EL $LRLCY $XLY $XLF $XRT

Williams Sonoma brand used to rated 'most likely to be $AMZN-ed' by sell side just like 2025's most likely to be snookered by tariffs' talk. Brand going from strength to strength. Another example of how much Alber & $WSM are under-rated by street. 🔥

Wise words from Alber about latest White House tariff noise. There simply isn't enough capacity in US. Upscale players like $WSM & $ARHS are better positioned & brunt of hurt (higher prices) will fall on lower end. She hopes that administration knows this & is pragmatic. 🙄

Sonoma often held to higher standard & some may scoff at held guide. But tariff hit embedded in $WSM guide has doubled. And more uncertainty with Trump now directly targeting furniture. Don't get there without very desirable brands/product $RH $ARHS $W $XLY $XRT

Another stellar Q at Williams Sonoma. Top of Wall Street's 'likely to be crushed by tariffs' lists, yet here we are with accelerating comp, terrific margin with one of best Qs in retail. Street consistently under-rates $WSM & Alber ability to deliver what consumers want. $RH $XLY $XRT

Contrast these statements from Urban & Kohls. Hot brands is part of it but the divide between upscale & lower end is still huge in a two-speed America. Although even $KSS is encouraged by improving trends. $URBN $WSM $HD $AMZN $AXP $XLF $XLY

Retail earnings season is mostly over. Better than expected with many calling out strong finish. We knew upscale is strong but life even at lower end & even laggards like Best Buy & Target improving. Remarkable that so many lifting guide despite uncertain macros & tariffs 💪 $XLY $XLF $XRT

Hate the very short term focus both sell-side & retail managements can have but in July at Kohls & improving discretionary goods sales at Dollar General in Q2, signs of improvement at lower end. We know upscale is robust, of course. $DG $KSS $WMT $XLY $XLF

Some similarities between Dicks & Williams Sonoma. Customer loyalty/brands/product consistently deeply under-rated at both by sell-side. $DKS follows up great results at $WSM with strong performance. That despite woes at Nike, supposed to drag it down. $FL $NKE $ADDYY

Commentators may have been shocked by Trump's 39% Swiss tariffs but watchmakers knew something penal was brewing. Exports to US +45% in July led by watches priced > $3700 (on top of April's surge). Ex-US down modest 1%. $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY #Rolex

Incredibly damning for Target's postion. Q2 web sales only +6%, half of $AMZN quarterly sales growth of +11.5% & vs $WMT +26%. Remember $TGT quarterly web sales are c$4.7 billion, less 5% of $AMZN quarterly sales.

Blemish at Walmart Q reared up margin deleverage. An old, ugly recurrent trait at $WMT where sales remain strong but shareholders (rightfully) fret about falling returns. Still for full year, guiding to just-about flat margins (though that is down from prior view)

Walmart US comp acceleration led entirely by web (also seen at $AMZN). Web sales +26% & now almost 19% of sales, up from 12% just 3 years ago. $WMT quarterly web sales now $25 billion, almost exactly 25% of $AMZN US quarterly sales. Advertising healthy +46%.

Depot, Lowes, $TJX, Walmart, Amazon (largest US retailers by factor of like gazillion) tell you much more about state of consumer than Target. $WMT comp accelerated on 2/3/4 year stacks $HD $LOW $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLF

Remember when folks were lining up to say Depot would eat tariffs to crush smaller competitors? DIY retail has multiples it does because of how rational $HD & $LOW are. Not gonna change. And of late, $WMT, $COST & $AMZN are following same template. reuters.com/business/retai…

Depot results lack va-va-voom of Covid years but believe it or not, meh 1.4% US comp is $HD best in almost 3 years. No surprises but solid traffic, comp, margin & inventory at #1 US discretionary retailer = solid US consumer. $LOW $WMT $AMZN $WSM $XLF $XLY

SRS acquisition dilutes Depot financials but long run of weak comp is also hurting $HD legendary cost management. Expenses +8.7% vs sales +4.9%. Still, $HD remains a free cash machine, having paid down nearly $5 billion or a third of SRS related debt in 12 months. $LOW

A department store with positive comps!! And it's the one every analyst thinks is most likely to die🙃. Another sign US consumer still keeps going but note volatility $DDS cites given so much policy uncertainty. $M $KSS $TGT $XLY $XLF

Polo, terrific everywhere. Expect a repeat with Coach as upscale brands are having their day with strength across globe in contrast to price/fashion driven pain at many luxury brands. $RL $TPR $LVMUY $PPRUY #Chanel

McDonalds says US middle-income consumer has returned to growth but low-end still down double digit. $MCD has been citing weakness at US low-end since 2023. Says not just real income but in large part sentiment as they skip occasions &/or trade down. $XLF $XLY

Relative to peers like $TPR & $RL, Capri still very poor but worth noting (even ex low balling & easier compares), Michael Kors in particular is improving. Signal of continued resilience at higher end demos especially at US aspirational names like Coach & Polo. $XLY $XLF

Remember in many international markets McDonalds is a family meal occasion + there is simply less chain competition overseas. So impetus/impact from value messaging is generally lower than in the US. $MCD $YUM $SBUX