Best Buy seeing solid, consistent consumer with low price resistance to innovation. But $BBY also confirms how hard it is to differentiate & reliance on electronics majors to deliver (cyclical) growth. A very commoditised business so many years on. $AMZN $WMT $COST $AAPL

Kohls says Sephora is comping at -1%. Disappointing given maturing stores & so much hype around brand. Suspect $ULTA will be better, although Estee/L’Oreal $AMZN push also not helping. $LRLCY $EL $LVMUY

Much higher end customer but $URBN seeing similar strong traffic & strength in November. Though even this consumer responding to promos/events although delivering healthy margin. $KSS $DKS $WMT $WSM $XLF $XLY

Kohls says Back 2 School strong but October was strongest when comp turned positive, led by traffic. Remember these are lower/mid demos. $KSS also seeing improvement in credit card biz, among riskier consumer credit portfolios out there. $WMT $TJX $ROST $XLY $XLF

L'Oreal Luxe CEO updates on premium beauty trends in #1 & #2 markets. China recovery continues - after being down in H1, Oct/Nov +5%. US improving to +3% - $LRLCY believes consumers feeling gradually better, driving fragrance. Encouraging all round $EL $LVMUY $ULTA

Add $URBN to mix. Comp accelerated 300bp+ to 8%. Self help at Urban took comp to 13% but already-strong Anthro also +8%. Watch what consumers do NOT what they say 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $TJX $GAP $BBY $WSM $XLY $XLF $BAC $V $MA $JPM

Amid all recession & consumer confidence on the floor talk, someone clearly forgot to pass on the memo to department store investors 🙂 $M $DDS $KSS $XLY $XRT $XLF

Smucker 'pleased' with what most would call profitless prosperity. Double-digit coffee pricing (mostly tariffs) with profit -20% is what $SJM is praising. Each business bar coffee saw sales at least -5%. US foods sound more delusional by the day. $GIS $MDLZ $CPB $XLP

Usual suspects lowlights in US September retail sales report: sporting goods & department stores. But also home improvement retail, as borne out by recent Q at Depot. $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $NKE $DKS $M $KSS

So this US retail sales report is for September. But for what it's worth, note categories growing healthy 5%+ all discretionary: clothing, electronics, cars, eating out and as usual, web. Not what you usually see when consumer is in funk. $XLY $XLF $AMZN $WMT $BBY $URBN $ANF

Best you can do with Best Buy is use it as broader indicator. Acceleration shows US consumer strength & iPhone upside. But still basically managing in category near-impossible to differentiate. Credit to $BBY that they still sport a decent margin. $AMZN $TGT $WMT $XLY

Dicks has been a retail rockstar despite Nike woes. Q shows despite increased disclosure, outlook murkier post Footlocker . Also expenses in core $DKS biz up 2X accelerating sales, though they did guide to some pressure, why even guide ex Footlocker not up much $NKE

Large retailers reporting today: Kohls, Dicks, Best Buy & even A&F look more like $WMT $WSM & $TJX than $TGT or $HD. All saw Q3 sales acceleration at strong selling margin. And most of these do NOT skew to upper end. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $AXP $MA

This is a particularly illuminating paragraph @financialtimes.com #Budget2026 #UK

Hard truths ahead of UK Budget from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @financialtimes.com. Likely to increase burden on top earners but those 'broad shoulders' already live in a country with most progressive tax system in West & have been squeezed most in recent years. ft.com/content/75ce...

October Swiss watch exports to US plummeted 47%, led by watches priced > $3000. Ex-US, +3% confirming nascent recovery seen at Richemont, led by China. Post new 15% tariff deal, US will pick up once shipments brought in on old tariff rates exhausted $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY #luxury

Note with this almost all the biggest US retailers have reported for Q ended October plus updated on November-to-date so this vantage point is pretty comprehensive. US retail reports scary early! $WMT $TGT $AMZN $HD $LOW $WSM $TJX $ROST $MCD $XLY $XLF $MA $JPM $BAC

On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST

Walmart on tariffs: impact lower than expected. Select price increases & growth in areas like fashion offset it. In food only beef seeing pressure. Welcome recent relief on foodstuffs not grown in US with open arms which was clearly moronic. $WMT $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLI

Walmart CFO echoes outgoing CEO; expects Q4 to be consistent with YTD. Strong start to Holiday & portents from Back-2-School & other events are good. This is America’s #3 discretionary retailer & #1 retailer overall. $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF

McMillon going out on high at Walmart & very upbeat. Points to gains across income cohorts with no US deceleration even with some more weakness at lower end. Consistent through Q & strong in discretionary area, advertising & web driving profit. 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF

Mastercard says US consumer healthy into November. On specific question re lower end, points to consistent trends across board. Data like this won't predict turning points but world a lot steadier than feverish commentator talk. $MA $V $JPM $XLF $XLY $WMT $AMZN $WSM $TJX

Ok so $BBWI has a new CEO so he's setting his scene. But anyone else note the cognitive dissonance or frankly even mendacity here. Blame weakness on macro pressures & then list gazillion retail basics to improve that you're currently screwing up 😉

You can critique Target heavily only because of its better disclosure. But contrast grocery down 1% at $TGT vs +2-3% at $WMT. But discretionary goods at $TGT also fully 500+bp lower, even worse given Walmart sells 2X more discretionary goods by dollars. $AMZN

Walmart US comp steady but web accelerated 200bp to +28% (also seen at $AMZN). Web now 21% of $WMT sales vs just 12% in 2022. Quarterly web sales $s now 25% of $AMZN US. Advertising stellar +53%. Spare a thought for Target, under 5% of $AMZN, up only 2%. Awful. 😣 $TGT $XLY $XRT

Walmart US supercenter comp accelerated on 4-year stack on traffic acceleration. Unlike margin deleverage last Q, EBIT grew faster. $WMT saw strength across store in positive sign on consumer. Also notes as at $TGT & $TJX, non-food prices rising on tariffs. $XLY $XLF

Walmart knocks it out of park. Reassures on consumer, up across staples & discretionary. Margin up, inventory down 1 to 45 days. Web, advertising both accelerated. Stock is up there but lot to like on $WMT & consumer. $HD, $MCD not signals they looked. $WSM $MA $XLY $XLF

$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY

$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY

Old habits die hard. Despite all the turmoil & under-performance, Target executives droned on with their prepared script for most of the call as usual leaving relatively little time for questions. 🤷‍♂️ $TGT

Cornell runs a long victory lap in his only real contribution to Target call. And ends with what has to be one of the greatest under-statements of the year… $TGT 🤣

Sensing some street angst on $WSM (what's new 🤷‍♂️) on Sonoma suggesting big reset in '26 on tariffs. Note for all Q3 'benefit' talk, merch margin only +50bp. Yes tariff hit gets bigger. But coupled with continued lower promos & usual Holiday caution, feels overblown.

Here Sonoma lays out what makes $WSM brands special. Contrast to Depot/Lowes, furniture moving DESPITE housing. Several years into lower promos, selling margin still up big, not just tariff timing but price rises & crucially product resonating with consumers $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF

If you had to pick a blemish, inventory at 132 days, up 2 on last year but offsetting that, Sonoma full-price sell-thru excellent. And $WSM has still added nearly $60million to net cash over past year despite inventory outflows & buying back stock worth $830million. 🔥

For ages street & plenty here said $WSM is going to $AMZN-ed, will crater after Covid boost blah blah. Now despite being hard-hit by tariffs, big ticket better at Pottery Barn, newness driving West Elm & Q4-heavy Williams Sonoma accelerating to 7%. Something special here folks.

Step back from regular thrashing that Sonoma gets whatever earnings release says & again, head & shoulders above almost anyone in retail. Strong sales. Check. Strong margin check. Continuing to take itself slowly private. Check. Alber & $WSM are a machine. 💪

London's prime housing may be in a tail spin but it is still the go-to destination for luxury store flagships. $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $BURBY $PPRUY $RL www.ft.com/content/5731...

$TJX rocks in all economic seasons, strong or weak. Comp accelerated 100bp in Q3, on 300bp acceleration in US Marmaxx stores to +6%, while US home stores strong +5%. Treasure hunt, share gains help but also pointer consumer not down & out. $TGT $HD $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF

Target inventory on face of it at 72 days (flat y/y) doesn't look too bad. But not great in context of mix moving rapidly towards faster-moving food & gross margin still 300bp below peak despite more high-margin advertising. $TGT $WMT $AMZN $XRT

Target comp -2.7% vs -0.9% in Q2, decelerating on 4-year stack. Traffic main issue & $TGT seeing modest ticket growth (tariff-led inflation?). But most damning: web only +2.4% despite tiny base vs +11% at $AMZN & what is likely to be 20%+ at Walmart. $WMT $XLY $XLF

Target stock/expectations already on floor but clearly deep market share losses to Walmart, Amazon etc. Despite inflation, food sales barely up while household essentials (detergent etc) are DOWN. Beauty just about up but $ULTA glow about to fade. 🤮 $TGT $WMT $AMZN $DG $XLY $XLF

Not just relative comp strength, Lowe's also (unusually) managing inventory and expenses better than Depot. Inventory days down 3 to 111 despite FBM acquisition. And expenses up faster than sales but not as much as $HD. No wonder some spring in $LOW step. 💪

Expectations lower post Depot, but Lowes reassuring. Relatively rare but $LOW out-comped $HD by 30bp & points to positive November comp despite storm hit. While guide lowered modestly, this seems largely expectations management/deal related $XLY $XLF

In similar vein, here’s Depot CEO saying ‘ex-storms’ Q3 demand was identical to Q2. And that storm compares will be just as tough in Q4, so this isn’t a downgrade of $HD demand view. Hello Mr Weatherman 💁 $LOW $XLY $XLF

Here Depot tries to explain very weak Q4 guide. Modest deleverage from a point of weaker comp but largely down to much worse outlook for SRS & dilution from GMS. Not entirely convincing but $HD basically saying don’t base 2026 forecasts on this Q4. $LOW $XLY $XLF

Interestingly $HD Q2 finished on a strong note so August continued that & sales then tailed off. But also, this maps almost exactly to compares from last year - August & September were very weak last year while October 2024 was only positive comp in Q3 last year.

Sales missed but Depot woes magnified by both expenses (up 2X sales) & inventory pushing 86 days. Harder to read given SRS & GMS deals but slippage through past few Qs out-of-character for $HD which is usually scary good on most retail metrics. $LOW $XLF $XLY

Housing-related (& not exactly on fire before this Q) but Depot first major US retailer to point to demand chinks. Blames Q3 shortfall on 'storms' but also cites weaker demand. Implied Q4 guide $2.49 vs street at $2.92 🫢 $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $AMZN $WMT

Richemont this am guided to €250m tariff hit in H2 after €50m in H1. With 15% EU-wide tariffs, hit will be much lower. After 39% tariffs on Switzerland, at end-September, Cartier took US-only price rises of 10% on watches & 6% on jewellery. Doubt price cuts coming 😉 $CFRUY

In latest evidence of luxury uptick, Richemont Watch & Other divisions (not in Cartier league) grew in Q3. Always take periodic calls of 'death of bling' with pinch of salt. Luxury huge up-cycle during Covid needed to be digested. Back to normalised growth. $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY