Manifold Alerts
@manifoldalerts.bsky.social
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Posts interesting Manifold Markets.
Market: Will Trump brag on TV at least three hours after he receives the FIFA peace prize at the World Cup draw?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
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Will Trump brag on TV at least three hours after he receives the FIFA peace prize at the World Cup draw?
59% chance. FIFA has announced it has created a peace prize which it will presumably give to Trump at the draw for the World Cup on December 5th: https://bsky.app/profile/pbsnews.org/post/3m4wb3fc7j3...
https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-trump-brag-on-tv-at-least-thre?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
1 day ago
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Chance of federal shutdown still in effect on the 17th has gone down 45%.
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
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US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17?
45% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...
https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/us-federal-government-shutdown-in-e?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
2 days ago
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Now 72%...
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...
add a skeleton here at some point
6 days ago
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60% chance the government is still shut down on November 17th
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
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US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17?
60% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...
https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/us-federal-government-shutdown-in-e?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
7 days ago
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Market: Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...
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Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?
55% chance. Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targ...
https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/military-conflict-between-the-us-an?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
7 days ago
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Ladies and gentlemen, they got em.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
add a skeleton here at some point
11 days ago
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Market: Will California billionaires have to pay 5% of their wealth because the mob demands it?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
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Will California billionaires have to pay 5% of their wealth because the mob demands it?
16% chance. The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth. https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/ Wil...
https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-california-billionaires-have-t?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
12 days ago
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I may have spoken too soon!
add a skeleton here at some point
12 days ago
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Market: Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
manifold.markets/Soli/will-do...
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Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
27% chance. The market resolves to “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibili...
https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
13 days ago
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Market: Will Trump tear down the white house before the end of his 2nd term?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
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Will Trump tear down the white house before the end of his 2nd term?
5% chance. Resolves YES if Trump tears down 90% or more of the original building as it stood at the end of Joseph Biden's term. Resolves NO otherwise. If Trump rebuilds a lookalike with modern wiring ...
https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-trump-tear-down-the-white-hous?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
13 days ago
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Manifold was really weirdly overconfident about the Louvre thieves getting caught quickly.
14 days ago
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Low participant count but 50/50 on shutdown until November 17 is crazy.
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
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US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17?
51% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...
https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/us-federal-government-shutdown-in-e?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
16 days ago
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The government will probably (78% chance) still be shut down on Halloween according to current Manifold.
16 days ago
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Market: At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?
manifold.markets/Norocvit/at-...
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At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?
46% chance. Resolution Criteria The market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31st, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC, at least one individual officially identified by French authorities as a "main perpetrato...
https://manifold.markets/Norocvit/at-least-one-main-perpetrator-of-oc?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
17 days ago
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Government shutdown markets seem to be moving. 70-something percent chance the shutdown lasts through Halloween now.
17 days ago
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Market: California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025?
manifold.markets/ShankarSivar...
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California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025?
94% chance. In response to Texas Republicans' redistricting efforts, California Governor Gavin Newsom has proposed a special election in November 2025 to allow voters to decide on new congressional ma...
https://manifold.markets/ShankarSivarajan/california-voters-approve-redistric?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
19 days ago
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reposted by
Manifold Alerts
Justin Wolfers
21 days ago
The shutdown keeps dragging on, this line keeps going up, and prediction markets now suggest that it's more likely than not this will be the longest government shutdown in US history (previous record 35 days).
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A surprisingly controversial question!
add a skeleton here at some point
22 days ago
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Market: Will the IRS refer major Democratic donors for criminal prosecution by EoY 2026?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
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Will the IRS refer major Democratic donors for criminal prosecution by EoY 2026?
50% chance. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump wants to use the IRS to pursue criminal charges against major Democratic donors such as George Soros: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-...
https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-the-irs-refer-major-democratic?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
22 days ago
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Market: Will Twitter/X stop all monetization for blue checkmark users by the end of 2025?
manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...
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Will Twitter/X stop all monetization for blue checkmark users by the end of 2025?
21% chance.
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-twitterx-stop-all-monetization?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
22 days ago
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Market: Trump tries to serve a third term?
manifold.markets/Tiger/trump-...
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Trump tries to serve a third term?
29% chance. Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms. This inc...
https://manifold.markets/Tiger/trump-tries-to-serve-a-third-term?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
22 days ago
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Market: Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first?
manifold.markets/Sketchy/will...
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Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first?
28% chance. Resolves according to the estimate for total turnout on Wikipedia, according to whatever count is cited the most prominently (this includes the organizer estimate, if most prominent). For...
https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/will-the-2nd-no-kings-protest-outnu?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
23 days ago
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Market: Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
add a skeleton here at some point
23 days ago
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84% chance the shutdown exceeds 25 days according to Manifold
manifold.markets/Panfilo/will...
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Will the current US Government Shutdown exceed 25 days?
84% chance. This market resolves Yes when the shutdown exceeds 25 days, and No if it resolves sooner. In the event of a close call, it will resolve based on whether a new budget of any duration had be...
https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-the-current-us-government-shut?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
23 days ago
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Newsome has signed AB 82, SB 59, SB 497, and AB 1084. But he declined to sign SB 418 by veto.
manifold.markets/Marnix/gavin...
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Gavin Newsom signs these 5 trans rights bills?
Resolved NO. All five of these bills have passed the California State Legislature, and have been sent to Newsom to sign. This market resolves NO if he vetoes any of them. It resolves YES if he signs a...
https://manifold.markets/Marnix/gavin-newsom-signs-these-5-trans-ri?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
23 days ago
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Hamas has released the hostages known to Israeli intelligence.
manifold.markets/CarmelHadar/...
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Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
Resolved NO. Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip. This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, sa...
https://manifold.markets/CarmelHadar/will-there-still-be-israeli-hostage?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
23 days ago
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Market: Government shutdown ends by December?
manifold.markets/hahahahh/gov...
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Government shutdown ends by December?
91% chance. Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the government shutdown ends at any time within December (not just by the beginning or end of the mo...
https://manifold.markets/hahahahh/government-shutdown-ends-by-decembe?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
24 days ago
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Market: Government shutdown exceeds 35-day record?
manifold.markets/antani/gover...
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Government shutdown exceeds 35-day record?
44% chance. This market resolves YES if the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 continues for more than 35 days, surpassing the 2018-2019 shutdown which lasted 35 days (December 22,...
https://manifold.markets/antani/government-shutdown-exceeds-35day-r?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
25 days ago
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PolyMarket giving 95% probability Hamas releases all hostages by the end of the month.
polymarket.com/event/will-h...
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Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by...?
Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases all living Israeli hostages held in Gaza by October 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this m...
https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-release-all-israeli-hostages-by-october-31?tid=1760325552137
25 days ago
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63% chance the government is still shut down on Halloween.
manifold.markets/10thOfficial...
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Will the government still be shutdown on Halloween?
63% chance. Us government, status as is today, 2025
https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-government-still-be-shutdo?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
25 days ago
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Market: Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?
manifold.markets/jade/will-tr...
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Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?
93% chance. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/ Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ### Update from...
https://manifold.markets/jade/will-trumps-birthright-citizenship?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
27 days ago
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This market has moved to 50%
add a skeleton here at some point
27 days ago
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Market: Trump retaliates against Norway if denied Nobel Peace Prize?
manifold.markets/Balasar/trum...
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Trump retaliates against Norway if denied Nobel Peace Prize?
21% chance. Resolution criteria This resolves Yes if, within 45 days after the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement (scheduled for Friday, October 10, 2025, 11:00 CEST in Oslo), the Trump administrati...
https://manifold.markets/Balasar/trump-retaliates-against-norway-if?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
28 days ago
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Market: Will Donald Trump retaliate against Norway for not winning the Nobel Peace Prize?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
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Will Donald Trump retaliate against Norway for not winning the Nobel Peace Prize?
37% chance. Unusual Whales writes: BREAKING: Norway is bracing for Trump's reaction if he does not win Nobel peace prize, stating that "US president may impose tariffs, demand higher Nato contributio...
https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-donald-trump-retaliate-against?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
28 days ago
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Donald Trump did not win the Nobel Peace Prize and this market has resolved NO.
add a skeleton here at some point
28 days ago
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This market has moved up to 58%.
add a skeleton here at some point
28 days ago
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Market: Will the Comey indictment be thrown out before the end of December?
manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...
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Will the Comey indictment be thrown out before the end of December?
27% chance.
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-comey-indictment-be-thrown-92UAIdISn9?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
29 days ago
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This market has moved down to a 21% chance.
add a skeleton here at some point
30 days ago
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Market: In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
manifold.markets/ScottAlexand...
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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
37% chance. EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as ...
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?
manifold.markets/256/will-the...
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Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?
7% chance. This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "popped". This could manifest in many different ways: - a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes - a hal...
https://manifold.markets/256/will-the-ai-bubble-pop-in-2025?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Fire at judge Diane Goodstein's house was arson
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...
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Fire at judge Diane Goodstein's house was arson
35% chance. Context: https://www.counton2.com/news/local-news/colleton-county-news/3-injured-in-edisto-beach-fire-sled-investigating/ The judge had previously blocked release of voter files to DOJ: h...
https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/fire-at-judge-diane-goodsteins-hous?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Trump pardons Maxwell in 2025?
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
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Trump pardons Maxwell in 2025?
17% chance. To mark the market as YES in 2025, these events must occur: A formal pardon or commutation of Ghislaine Maxwell’s federal sentence must be signed by President Trumpin 2025. For clarity: ...
https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/trump-pardons-maxwell-in-2025?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026?
manifold.markets/JennaBarnaby...
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Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026?
27% chance. I will resolve this question as "yes," if the New York Times publishes a story stating that a U.S. citizen, involved in a protest situation, was killed by a U.S. military service member in...
https://manifold.markets/JennaBarnaby/will-a-us-military-service-member-k?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?
manifold.markets/AlyssaVance/...
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Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?
54% chance. In November 2023, the Washington Post reported: "Donald Trump and his allies have begun mapping out specific plans for using the federal government to punish critics and opponents should ...
https://manifold.markets/AlyssaVance/will-donald-trump-order-the-us-mili?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in his second term, will the military be directed against protestors?
manifold.markets/WalterMartin...
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If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in his second term, will the military be directed against protestors?
89% chance. I ask because the two main priorities that have been previously mentioned for Insurrection Act invocation (by the Trump team) have been border security and civil unrest. I specifically wan...
https://manifold.markets/WalterMartin/if-trump-invokes-the-insurrection-a?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?
manifold.markets/FranklinBald...
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Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?
48% chance. Background The Insurrection Act of 1807 allows the U.S. president to deploy military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States to suppress civil disorder, insurrectio...
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-trump-invoke-the-insurrection?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Will the government still be shutdown on Halloween?
manifold.markets/10thOfficial...
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Will the government still be shutdown on Halloween?
30% chance. Us government, status as is today, 2025
https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-government-still-be-shutdo?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Market: Will the current US Government Shutdown exceed 25 days?
manifold.markets/Panfilo/will...
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Will the current US Government Shutdown exceed 25 days?
39% chance. This market resolves Yes when the shutdown exceeds 25 days, and No if it resolves sooner. In the event of a close call, it will resolve based on whether a new budget of any duration had be...
https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-the-current-us-government-shut?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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Hamas accepts Trump's proposed peace deal moved from 40% to 29%.
about 1 month ago
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Market: Hamas accepts Trump's proposed peace deal?
manifold.markets/ae/hamas-acc...
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Hamas accepts Trump's proposed peace deal?
30% chance. Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves YES if Hamas and Israel both publicly agree simultaneously, in apparent good faith, to some version of Trump's plan. Im...
https://manifold.markets/ae/hamas-accepts-trumps-proposed-peace?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4
about 1 month ago
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