Generated examples from described risky choices have "flatter" probabilities

Thanks Dr Deborah Talmi @dtalmi.bsky.social @campsydept.bsky.social for such an interesting talk on Bayesian modelling of subjective pain experiences. Nice to see the integration of basic and clinical science. 🧪

The ability to generate random sequences is useful (e.g., making passwords, playing paper-rock-scissors, escaping predators), but people are not very good at it. @lcastillo.bsky.social led work showing this may reflect the general process of how things come to mind.

My department is moving to a new building. Last day in my soon-to-be -old office, taking a good look at the long windowless corridor, defunct letter boxes, 60s spiral stairwell and the Japanese garden.

Next up, from the behavioural science group, @asanborn.bsky.social presenting his ESRC-funded project investigating the use of Bayesian sequential sampling for modelling human decision making.

📢 We’re hiring! The University of Warwick is recruiting for a full-time, permanent academic position in Psychology, available at either: 🔹 Assistant Professor 🔹 Associate Professor 📅 Application deadline: 5th April 2026

📢 We’re hiring! The University of Warwick is recruiting for a full-time, permanent academic position in Psychology, available at either: 🔹 Assistant Professor 🔹 Associate Professor 📅 Application deadline: 5th April 2026

📢 We’re hiring! The University of Warwick is recruiting for a full-time, permanent academic position in Psychology, available at either: 🔹 Assistant Professor 🔹 Associate Professor 📅 Application deadline: 5th April 2026

Welcome back to Dr Lucas Castillo, who is starting an ESRC-funded postdoc with Prof. Adam Sanborn using statistical sampling algorithms as standard models of human perceptual and cognitive behaviour. Lucas recently gained his PhD in the department exploring why people are not able to act randomly.

🎓 Warwick China Scholarship Council scholarships – up to 30 for Autumn 2026 Entry Explore funding opportunities now! 🔗 warwick.ac.uk/servic... 📅 Deadlines: Course Apps – 8 Dec 2025 Scholarship Apps – 11 Dec 2025 #PhD #Scholarships #WarwickUni #PsychologyResearch #PostgradFunding

🎓 Warwick Pathway Scholarships – Autumn 2026 Entry Interested in research in Psychology? Explore funding opportunities now! 🔗 warwick.ac.uk/servic... 📅 Deadlines: Course Apps – 8 Dec 2025 Scholarship Apps – 11 Dec 2025 #PhD #Scholarships #WarwickUni #PsychologyResearch #PostgradFunding

🎓 Warwick China Scholarship Council scholarships – up to 30 for Autumn 2026 Entry Explore funding opportunities now! 🔗 warwick.ac.uk/servic... 📅 Deadlines: Course Apps – 8 Dec 2025 Scholarship Apps – 11 Dec 2025 #PhD #Scholarships #WarwickUni #PsychologyResearch #PostgradFunding

🎓 Warwick Chancellors Scholarships (international)– Autumn 2026 Entry Interested in research in Psychology? Explore funding opportunities now! 🔗 warwick.ac.uk/servic... 📅 Deadlines: Course Apps – 8 Dec 2025 Scholarship Apps – 11 Dec 2025 #PhD #Scholarships #PsychologyResearch #PostgradFunding

🎓 Warwick Postgrad Scholarships – Autumn 2026 Entry Interested in research in Psychology? Explore funding opportunities now! 🔗 warwick.ac.uk/servic... 📅 Deadlines: Course Apps – 8 Dec 2025 Scholarship Apps – 11 Dec 2025 #PhD #Scholarships #WarwickUni #PsychologyResearch #PostgradFunding

Excited about starting a PhD in Psychology? 🎓 Don't miss out on the opportunity to apply for the ESRC Midlands Graduate School DTP Open competition! The deadline is on 13th January 2026. Apply now to fund your academic journey:

Prof. Adam Sanborn giving a talk on Bayesian Brain without Probabilities at Aalto

On Friday, @ainiputkonen.bsky.social defended her dissertation on modeling decision-making in naturalistic settings with Prof. Adam Sanborn as the opponent. It has been a joy to watch her grow and emerge as a rigorous and original researcher. Congrats Aini! aaltodoc.aalto.fi/items/cf8487...

We've received funding from the ESRC to investigate if sampling models can explain perceptual and cognitive tasks in the same way. One of the postdoc positions is advertised: www.jobs.ac.uk/job/D... 1/2

If you haven't been looking recently at the Open Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science (oecs.mit.edu), here's your reminder that we are a free, open access resource for learning about the science of mind. Today we are launching our new Thematic Collections to organize our growing set of articles!

🚀🚀 Very excited about this new preprint with @yunxiao-li.bsky.social and @asanborn.bsky.social! Months ago we released the samplr package on CRAN (helps you use sampling algorithms + cogn. models for human data). Here we explain the theoretical background and show how to use the pkg osf.io/ax8hm

Our lab has a list of papers that use statistical sampling algorithms like MCMC to explain human behaviour. Thanks to @lcastillo.bsky.social, you can select by behaviour or algorithm. If we've missed any, please let us know! sampling.warwick.ac....

A new approach to intertemporal choice.

Welcome back to Dr. Jake Spicer, who returns to Warwick Psychology to begin his ESRC New Investigator project, "Investigating Sampling Approaches to Decision Making"

We are recruiting for two 1-year teaching-focussed positions. We welcome applicants in a wide range of areas, with a particular focus on social psychology for one of the posts. www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DML866/a...

New paper with Tong Liu and Arndt Broeder, just accepted in Cognition. We test novel qualitative predictions from sampling-based models of probability estimation in an event ranking task. Results provide evidence for the idea that mental sampling underlies probability judgements.

Here's a network lesson on #creativity @yoedkenett.bsky.social and I came up: How to be more creative? Get noisy! Try lots of things. It's the old exploration-exploitation trade-off, and good practice when you don't know what to do. DM for a copy of the paper. psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-...

⏳Last chance to apply! Don’t miss out.

Very pleased that the special section I've edited with some colleagues (none of them on Bluesky, unfortunately) on Enriching Psychological Research by Exploring the Source and Nature of Noise is now published in PPS! Links to all of the articles in the section below. doi.org/10.1177/1745...

"Noise in Cognition: Bug or Feature?" is now available in Perspectives on Psychological Science doi.org/10.1177/1745... (1/4)

🚀 New paper out in Psychological Review! How does learning change across the lifespan? We propose that resource rationality—adapting belief updating to cognitive limitations—can explain age-related differences in learning. 📖 doi.org/10.1037/rev0... 👇 A short thread:

🚨 A new preprint is out! How does utility influence mental simulations of risky events? 🤔🎲 We tested this across 4 experiments & found that most people simulate probabilities accurately, but biases emerge in key conditions! If you want to learn more, keep reading! doi.org/10.31234/osf...

New Preprint Out! 🚀🚀 Can people generate a random sequence if given enough time? Keep reading if - You make cognitive models with randomness in them - You like to explore the world, be creative, choose well - You want protection from clever agents exploiting patterns in your behavior. osf.io/awg9j

A short intro to MCMC in Cognitive Science in the excellent OECS

In our new preprint, my co-authors and I explore how people’s probability judgments sometimes don’t add up the way they should, and how these violations can help us compare different models of how people make these judgments! osf.io/preprints/ps...

🎓 4 PhD Fellowships at Warwick Psychology for 25/26 entry www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DLI727/p... -3 for exciting projects led by Drs Alex Clarke, @gambichiara.bsky.social & @mmrobinson93.bsky.social -1 open to applicants with their own choice of supervisor/ proposal. Closing date: 16 March 2025 at 23:59