BIG NEWS: My book, The Land Trap, is coming out on Nov 4! I've been fascinated by this topic for years. The book tells the story of why land still occupies such a huge role in finance, economics and politics globally, and why that's a source of huge risk. You can preorder NOW!

Fun story this week. I interviewed Jamie Dimon and the each of the heads of the bank's major businesses (his potential successors) about JP Morgan's astonishing expansion, what could threaten the biggest bank in American history, and what's coming next. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

My piece this week: for a long time, private markets firms have dreamed of "democratising" their asset class. They're not dreaming anymore - the moment of truth has arrived www.economist.com/finance-and-....

Transpacific trade is already seizing up because of the tariffs. Three weeks ago, about 60,000 TEU (a measure of container volume) were scheduled to be "blanked" from April 16-May 10 (cancelled voyages/stops at a port). Now the figure is *367,800* www.sea-intelligence.com/press-room/3...

The media monoculture breaking down is so fun. This guy is visiting China, I had never previously heard of him, but as far as I can tell it's perhaps the third biggest global news story happening in the last week.

Actually can take it back further: only 3 occasions since 1964 with larger 2-day sellouts in S&P 500

It's important to remember that for younger investors, a selloff can represent a great entry opportunity! Unless it represents a change in the value of discounted future cash flows.

Fact check true

There are now only two occasions in recent financial history where the S&P 500 sold off more sharply in two days than it has since the US tariff announcements - the peak of Covid panic in March 2020, and a cluster of occasions during the very worst moments of the global financial crisis in 2008

My piece today: Trump's tariff bazooka is the biggest threat yet to 15yrs of US equity exceptionalism. It's not just the mindless economic hit. Amateurish execution undermines the widespread belief in pro-market US governance www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Some of the US stocks with the biggest international trade/production exposures have just been absolutely battered since mid-February. Best Buy, Dell and Nike down between 26% and 36%.

Capital Economics: if today's announcements are implemented, the effective US tariff rate will shoot straight past the Smoot-Hawley levels of the 1930s. "The effective tariff rate on all imports will rise from 2.3% last year to around 26%, leaving it at a 131-year high"

What's a historical example of an economic policy as significant as the tariffs being discussed, where we knew similarly little about the scale of the announcement right beforehand? The Covid + 2008 crisis responses seem different because they were triggered by exogenous events.

There's something darkly funny in looking at these trends and remembering the RW mockery of the shifting "current thing" and NPCs who can't think for themselves

Bit embarrassing to admit they missed this one

It is fascinating that the entirety of the recent US stock selloff is accounted for by valuation re-rating. For all the reduced confidence, tariff threats etc, earnings estimates are still at an all-time-high.

Even if the Chinese economy rebounds (a big if), and its tech crackdown comes to a clear end, politics now makes it hard for Wall Street to turn really bullish. Investors in Dubai, Singapore and Zurich will not feel the same compunctions. My column this week. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

I think when you already have slightly cartoonish facial furniture, these things work even better

To put the recent rally in Chinese tech stocks in context, they're still much cheaper by forward PE (red line) than US tech stocks (green line), but also cheaper than *the US market overall*. The drop from a PE of 70 at the peak of the 2020-early '21 mania is insane.

"(Two other users subsequently added prayer emoji.)"

A happy reminder from Google Photos of my first of three trips into various forms of quarantine in Hong Kong, five years ago today! How the time flies eh

Henry VIII's 1527 suit of armour next to his 1544 suit of armour in the "Track Your Calories" exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Art

Trump is so powerful that he may even manage to break the overwhelming anti-incumbent trend in global politics, by propelling the Canadian Liberals back into office.

After 15yrs of roaring returns, US investors have never been so exposed to a selloff. Stock wealth ran to 170% of disposable income last year, twice the long-term average. But the way they interpret a selloff is now being warped by the country's divisive politics www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Bank of America records the biggest single drop in allocations to US stocks on record (data goes back to 2001) in its monthly fund manager survey. An astonishing shift - investors went from overweighting US equities in Feb (net +17%) to underweighting heavily in March (net -23%).

I hadn't realised just how comic the partisan division in consumer expectations data is over time. It's actually slightly amazing that this can average out to something useful. (University of Michigan index, Red = GOP, Blue = Dems)

This is really completely insane

One thing I find interesting about Tesla is how weird the stock has been relative to other companies in a similar weight class - most megacaps grind upwards, constantly beating expectations, but Tesla basically has two huge jumps that account for almost all the net growth (log scales)

Presumably the people who think asset prices should be included in measures of inflation must be really happy right now

Today was the worst day for US stocks, relative to global stocks (ex-US) in nearly two and a half years

Huge job here for someone - Anthropic is hiring an econ-focused writer to work on @stuartjritchie.bsky.social's team boards.greenhouse.io/anthropic/jo...

This week, I wrote about the worrying rise in American credit card delinquences, now at a 13yr high. Delinquencies are high but extremely concentrated - among young people, in poor locations, and with bad credit ratings www.economist.com/finance-and-...

This week, I wrote about the financial disclosures of the Trump II cabinet. Beyond enormous differences in wealth (Scott Bessent's art + antiques are worth at least 5x Marco Rubio's assets), the extent of crypto investment among the new MAGA crowd is eye-opening www.economist.com/finance-and-...

This week, I wrote about the financial disclosures of the Trump II cabinet. Beyond enormous differences in wealth (Scott Bessent's art + antiques are worth at least 5x Marco Rubio's assets), the extent of crypto investment among the new MAGA crowd is eye-opening www.economist.com/finance-and-...

We're nearly there guys, we are so so close

Pretty astounding to look at the German election forecasts from our polling gurus. In the central scenario (across 100 simulations), the AfD doubles its share of seats, Social Democrats slip into third place for the first time in postwar German electoral history. www.economist.com/interactive/...

Probably the best chart for illustrating what's going on right now in markets. Nvidia down by ~18% over three days, dragging tech overall down by ~6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the People's Index, soldiers on, up ~1%.

A few weeks ago I wrote about the potential upsides of a financial bubble, which I've been thinking about a bunch today. Feels like the market today is actually not a bad example of the typology identified in it - there seems to be almost no spillover. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

In total market cap, the Nvidia selloff today is a little bit bigger than if the entire listed market of Mexico went to zero.

If it seems like everyone is suddenly talking about a rapid catch-up by Chiness AI companies, and you're not sure how we got here, this week's brilliantly-timed briefing on the subject is a very good place to start. www.economist.com/briefing/202...

My latest: the new administration in Washington is often described as "pro-crypto," a massive understatement of the digital asset boosterism which is now beginning. The crypto takeover of American public life and high finance is underway. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

My latest: the new administration in Washington is often described as "pro-crypto," a massive understatement of the digital asset boosterism which is now beginning. The crypto takeover of American public life and high finance is underway. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Leaving the Asia finance beat just in time for a BOJ rate hike

Too cold for this joke to make sense now

Think it's safe to say that my social media advertising has worked out that I'm not in Singapore any more

Yesterday, I experienced something surprising, perhaps even outrageously so. I opened an American bank account, deposited a cheque, and saw the money had entered the new account. It took forty minutes from scratch and was the easiest experience doing so I've had anywhere in the world.

As a recent arrival, this seems very interesting and hopeful. A lot of the broad "crime" conversation about New York and a handful of other cities is often really a conversation about the boom in untreated and often very disruptive mental illness in public spaces. www.politico.com/news/2025/01...

I am dining out on this joke in a frankly repulsive way