Wild if Nasdaq bends the rules for SpaceX giving the stock a 5x float multiplier. This will effectively make passive technology investors in QQQ exit liquidity for SpaceX employees plus create strong demand for the shares. Catastrophic for market integrity if it goes through.

Governments want limit impact on growth, so they amortise it over the fiscal budget through price caps. Taxes are likely not increased so the absorption is through higher govt debt and thus the cost is effectively paid by future generations and less by the current one. Financial engineering.

Spørgsmål til danskere her på de. Blå sky… Så Novafos opkræver konsekvent aconto ca. 870 kr for meget om året vs opgørelse. Med 74.000 kunder og under antagelse af samme difference pr kunde, så indkræver Novafos 65 mio. kr for meget hvert år. Placeres det til 2,5% i sikre statsobligationer 1/n

Oracle shares jump 9% on earnings. Funny. They increase invested capital almost 100% in the first nine months while operating income increase 15% RPO is almost 10x their revenue.

Software companies are announcing different type of debt deals to fund shares buyback. It adds demand for shares. It buys back shares under fair value. It lowers cost of capital.

A new oil shock has arrived. It havoc will depend on the duration of this crisis. But underneath this new oil shock a peculiar regularity is happening regardless of oil prices and technology. The global economy's oil intensity keeps falling systematically. petergarnry.substack.com/p/oil-shocks...

Listened to Robinhood founder on Odd Lots. It sounds like a colossal battle is coming for neobanks/brokers (Robinhood, Revolut, Scalable, Nubank etc.) They will all end up in many of the same arenas but from different starting places…

Interesting signal.

No, AI is not coming for your developer job, regardless of the nonsense the hype mongers are pushing. (I'm talking just about developer jobs—it obviously impacts other areas.) That's not to say the layoffs aren't real, but rather that the corporations are hiding normal corporate behavior behind 1/11

Software stocks rising 2% today. The physical world was apparently a bit messy and not straight forward after all…

Got the question today of whether I am nervous about the economy. There are risks, I’m not naive, but high-frequency series like WEI is still holding up well… www.dallasfed.org/research/wei

Will be repeated by the other hyperscalers

*ORACLE PLANS THOUSANDS OF JOB CUTS AS DATA CENTER COSTS RISE

My latest piece called "The return machine", which is a simple framework to understand expectations, current income, growth in earnings and future valuation for thinking about expected returns. I round it off with a comparison between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. open.substack.com/pub/petergar...

Which means aggregate buybacks are also suffering in S&P 500

OpenAI raising $110bn just tells you that this AI bet cannot fail. It must fail. We will not allow another dot-com crunch. We will subsidise the whole thing…

Laying off 40-50% of your employees when you are profitable will like putting a dagger into the heart of employee loyalty. It may never recover from such an action...

The interesting thing about the chart is, that the "efficient market" first vote in favour of Duolingo in an AI era, but then decides that it will go the same way as the local newspapers after the Internet was invented.

Finally some sanity on expectations vs priors

I like this… “Europeans ask about SBC all the time. Americans ask about SBC when there is a crisis”

Let’s keep it blue 🙌

I love this thinking

Just looked at their financial statements for the first time ever. Not impressed on their reporting style or profitability (or lack off).

The word "uncertainty" comes up a lot, but is the world really that more uncertain than the 100-year pandemic and the great financial crisis?

Echoes what TradeWeb noted in their recent earnings release, hyperscaler CapEx driven by debt has created a lot of trading activity on the hedging side.

Great first period for Denmark in men’s hockey 🇩🇰 Love the Danish names like True and Storm 😁

You can add Caterpillar in the same category. Never been more expensive yet will it grow fast just because of AI buildout? Re Walmart the narrative being floated on SoMe is that a bright massive margin expansion awaits due to fully autonomous future in its store and logistics.

Very interesting observation

Fun fact. My former boss and I were instructed by the bank to interview her about her investment strategy etc. (someone thought it would be great content for clients) The interview was conducted on the very same day as her fund peaked!

The biggest European share cannibals over the last 10 years.

Now check their revenue. Peaked in 2014 as the company transitioned to a franchise model with lower revenue but higher margin. #$MCD is a quasi real estate company with an IP concept on burgers on the side…

Just staggering. Maybe shareholders wish they could get into a time machine and accept the Adobe offer…

“.. US stocks outperforming the rest of the world has been one of the strongest investing themes for years. It peaked in December 2024, right after Trump's win.” - @weisenthal.bsky.social

A lot of interesting observations from Joe...

Of course the market gets spooked. Their EBIT in 2025 is $80bn, then you add back the $1.4bn in amortization of acquired intangibles and subtract roughly $10bn in operating cash taxes so your NOPAT is ~$71.4bn. Now you are telling me that you want to spend $200bn in CapEx.

Looking at Amazon's earnings release. Their long bullet list of things they have achieved or launched is hilarious. Where is the focus? Where is just reporting the necessary and reduce noise?

How can explain this? Is it retail flow, passive ETFs, regulation risk premium? At face value it looks like the market is less efficient in valuing companies…

So going from asset light to capital intensive business model is not pure fun and games after all…who would have thought

The average maximum drawdown for US stocks during 1985-2024 is 85% according to Michael Mauboussin research. Every company goes through a big reprice - even the Mag7 has been through it…

Says the CEO that lifted the number of employees by 10% in 2025. So if one could lift the same workload as a team with AI it implies 5x productivity gain. I will look forward to a 80% reduction in Meta employees. I hope everyone can see the unnecessary hype www.businessinsider.com/meta-says-ai...

That one of the world’s most top notch commercial research labs feels threatened is a bad sign.

The CapEx vs Opex dance in US technology continues. In order to avoid a repricing of equity valuations as CapEx explodes higher they bring down Opex to preserve margins and free cash flows. It can last in the short-term but also in the long-term? #stocks #$AMZN www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Impressive beat by ASML. Forward-looking indicators suggest demand is still strong... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Doing deep research on electrification for our next investment. Cannot disclose yet what we are looking at, but when we make the investment we will argue our case. Electrification has so many layers and investment opportunities that narrowing it down to one potential long-term winner is hard...

Putting the relative pricing aside the fact that gold and silver have a non-linear price move on log-scale says that the price behaviour is bubble like and unsustainable. We have seen it three times in Bitcoin. It always ends the same way…

My latest Substack article. Essentially a book review of "The Compounders" with my perspectives. petergarnry.substack.com/p/is-there-a...

Listening to the Odd Lots podcast with the CEO of PNC Financial Services. I really don’t understand, and I don’t think Tracy and Joe are pressing on this, but why is a national bank so focused on growing branches. In 2026, surely the mission should be solving the SME problems digitally.

I’m tired of listening to Danish/European tech entrepreneurs complaining about different rules and laws across European countries as a big problem for scaling. US business people also complain about different rules across US states for wages, permits etc. Scaling in the US is also tough.

This is such a bad sign for the US. When science and the scientific method is questioned against obvious statistical significance bad things will happen over time…

The junk rally