This is such a bad sign for the US. When science and the scientific method is questioned against obvious statistical significance bad things will happen over time…

The junk rally

Trump’s unpredictability makes long-term deal-making and relationships impossible. The EU–Mercosur and Canada-China are signs of this.

I expect the Netherlands to follow. Shipping routes across the North Pole during warmer weather mostly end in Rotterdam so protecting Europe’s trade fleet and ensure security of volume into Rotterdam is of national interest to the Netherlands.

The bigger point is that HSBC and McKinsey have zero skin in the game when making these forecasts. As a result they are useless. Only serves an entertainment purpose.

Weird session

The future. More and more production will in the future be closer to end consumer markets. Robot manufacturing of goods cost more or less the same in China as in Europe. This is just the beginning

Finally. Propose an Arctic Defense Alliance. Greenland, US, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, UK, France, the Netherlands and Germany.

My eldest son (11 years old) wanted new shin pads for his football practice. Size was 10x6cm. I said: “that’s joke right? They are for small 4-year olds” He wants them because more and more professionel football players are using mini-pads. Everyone is obsessed about aesthetics over safety.

I have had the same feeling lately and also much more activity in Danish. I also sense small incremental improvements in the feed algorithm.

Visa and Mastercard run credit card networks but are not the issuing institution. Banks like JPM does the credit scoring and run credit card receivables portfolio on their balance sheet. Many things get mixed up in this debate. And capping interest rates will not stop the flow of credit…

One of our companies paid dividends yesterday. Am I happy? No. Dividends are a tax inefficient way to return capital. It also reflects poor imagination by management. For a company with ROIC > 20% it makes little sense to pay dividends. Give me profitable growth. Otherwise I buy bonds…

“🇩🇰Denmark has reduced its defence of 🇬🇱Greenland and isn’t doing enough” - left hand side 🇺🇸US bases & radar stations on Greenland during the #ColdWar and to the right today. Denmark has increased its defence capacity on Greenland during the last years, while US has done nothing

You were at the pinnacle of your growth trajectory. Rest well and get back to show how great a player you are…

Yesterday they celebrated. In the weeks, months and years to come, it will reveal itself what they missed. “Doubt is an uncomfortable condition, but certainty is a ridiculous one.” Voltaire

UN is de facto dead. Great Power competition era shows its face three days into the new year.

And with EURUSD up almost 13% it was a horrible year for European investors in US equities. On a relative basis European investors gained much more wealth than US investors in 2025. Happy New Year.

I wrote about the new era of geopolitics and what it means for equity investing. It is a guide to avoid pitfalls, but also which vectors to focus on in the decade to come. Happy New Year everyone! open.substack.com/pub/petergar...

Bliver spændende om forspringet betyder noget for Novo. Personligt mener jeg at man skal få det bedste ud af USA, men fokusere hårdere på non-US markeder.

There are two companies that I would love were publicly traded. LEGO and Ferrero Group. Absolute gems of Europe…

I just tried Copilot in PowerPoint for fun. I needed help on a graphical element. Shit it is so bad. Probably the worst software integration I have ever encountered.

Weird session in the US today. In the years to come, if equity concentration deflates, we will many more sessions with the mega caps pulling indices down but a vast sea of other stocks delivering strong gains. Exactly like the 2000-2003 period.

Oracle's FCF chart is still one for the ages. The huge remaining performance obligation figure is all depended on credit available for AI and equity funding for OpenAI. You cannot blame Oracle's management for being risk adverse...

There are two factors that can support this: 1) re-leveraging of the balance sheet, or 2) expected growth is significantly higher post US election. I think neither will be possible…

Waymo is definitely looking like the winner now. Long-term it is close to a winner takes it all market.

Geopolitics and Trump’s desire to control narratives and media are playing a role in the Warner Bros takeover. Netflix and its founder is seen as leaning left/Democratic and thus suddenly the takeover is a size problem. Paramount with Eillison (closer to Trump) is now launching new bid.

Today’s pondering at Gesda Capital… If the depreciation is faster than expected on AI chips and chips sit in inventory due to slow datacenter plugin to the grid, could a lot of capital be incinerated in the short-term?

In the neo mercantilist economy that will not be seen as a big issue. The Great Power competition period 1870-1914 showed an extraordinary willingness to allow companies to become big and build cartels/trusts. The bust of Standard Oil marked the end of that policy…

The WSJ op-ed today on the EU and X reflects that it does not understand the new geopolitical world. Or just blind? It reflects a naivety and clear lack of understanding European culture and the transformation it is undergoing as a result of the actions by the US.

As soon as the tailwinds begin from Germany’s new fiscal policy many will be surprised about the positive ripple effects. Germany has the capacity to make it long lasting amplifying the compounding effects on itself and Europe…

The Trump administration’s $150mn stake in xLight, a competitor and threat to ASML, is an important sign post that the US has moved the most in a mercantile direction over the past 10 years. The free markets of the Chicago School is completely dead. It is important implications for investors.

Oracle and Adobe earnings on Wednesday are going to be super interesting, but for different reasons. Oracle: how are the balance sheet and cash flows developing amid AI datacenter spending spree? Adobe: can they deliver growth and earnings that are better than feared like Salesforce?

But on thing Salesforce should stop immediately is indicating that they have returned $9.9bn to shareholders in the past 9M. A lot of it is just anti-dilutive repurchases of outstanding shares to offset SBC which is a compensation rewarded to employees. I don't hope any investors falls for this...

Salesforce Q3 results shows that enterprise software is still healthy and it looks like the company is delivering results on AI agents. The narrative has been all the opposite throughout 2025… $CRM #stocks

Waymo will likely end up being the category winner based on the information we have today. What is the value of that business to Alphabet?

We always talk about the ressource curse when it comes to commodities. What if high concentration and wealth from technology sector is also a ressource curse?

Interesting observation. Push marketing for Copilot across Microsoft’s productivity suite has increased. Google has also increased its push marketing recently when you engaged on Google Search.

One can spin it both ways but given the state of the lower part of the K economy I find this distressing. Not a good sign.

It is Christmas time so let us talk about snowballs! ⛄️ After more than 22 years investing in equities and thinking about markets I finally got to read the Warren Buffett biography The Snowball. Here are my three main takeaways. Yes, I am a bit critical… open.substack.com/pub/petergar...

It always find it interesting to plot a company’s revenue on a log scale. You clearly see patterns of growth rates changing. In the case of Tesla it is quite remarkable… $TSLA

The glass half empty would say the jobs are never coming back and the biggest companies are getting stronger and more profitable. The glass half full would say that it frees up resources which with the help of AI starts many new businesses faster and better that competes with the big.

Google was never really out. They had the LLM idea before OpenAI, but was slowed down by ethical concerns. Hassabis and his team at DeepMind is in a class of its own. Hassabis is also much hype driven and more scientific in his approach. Google was never of the game…

This highlights the dangers of being exposed in the part of the value chain where the winning position can quickly flip. There are other ways to play AI more conservatively…

To a large extent, this is the reason why Europe has chosen to socialise the costs of childcare. It expands labour participation without penalising the lower 25% of the distribution from adding number two in the household to the labour market. It is a mindset…

I always like to listen to Antti Ilmanen because he is so genuine and humble. On the CAPE ratio I left it intellectually long time ago. It is well established that intangibles changed a lot in equity valuation and accounting. 1/n podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/t...

I think I will print Oracle’s FCF over the past 30 years, frame it, and then put it up on the wall of our office. It really is one for the ages…

Nvidia has four customers that are 65% of their business.

An early Christmas present arrived today. Really looking forward to read the book “The Compounders”.

Congratulations to 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿! One of the most craziest matches I have ever seen with the Danish national team in football. Now we are going through two nerve wrecking playoff matches before hopefully reaching the World Cup 2026. Go 🇩🇰 !

Thanks for sharing @jessefelder.bsky.social - you were faster than I was to get the message out…