Very excited to be a panelist at the NYU/Cardozo Robotaxi Symposium on Thursday. Strong lineup of speakers - go register if you're in NYC. www.law.nyu.edu/events/nyu-c...

If you have to put this disclaimer in a prediction market, maybe don't have the market.

This is interesting only to me, but one of the Tesla crashes had a dog running into the road, and the Tesla positioned itself to the left side of the lane to try and avoid striking it. Which combines two examples I used to give for why risk management in an AV is so much harder than "just brake"!

Tesla reports ADS crashes to NHTSA via the Standing General Order. For the Austin robotaxis, they just today unredacted the crash narratives. Most surprising are two instances where the in-vehicle safety monitor asked for a virtual driver, who promptly crashed.

Nothing will ever top politicians' meme coins, but as a bribe, Duffy's road trip is pretty blatant. slate.com/life/2026/05...

Reminder that CFTC couldn't catch a politician betting on his own market using his real name and bank account. They don't need AI, they need a spreadsheet with an IF/THEN statement.

"most prestigious" ... "dimentia"

Reminder that federal agencies are not "overwhelmed" with FOIA requests. NHTSA gets 2 per work day. 2! Their budget is $1.6B. I've had one with NHTSA since January for a single document whose existence was all over the news. They stall and ghost and hope you forget. www.reuters.com/business/aut...

I co-authored Stop Predatory Gambling's response to CFTC on prediction market regulations. The full response is here: comments.cftc.gov/Handlers/Pdf... My favorite sections.

If you think prediction markets are out of control, please let CFTC know by submitting a comment by Thursday. Citizen input is especially important, as politicians don't have a good sense of public perception. Background: www.cftc.gov/LawRegulatio... Submissions: comments.cftc.gov/PublicCommen...

An analogy would be the SEC only looking at insider trading of Apple when Tim Cook personally does it in his own account. But that doesn't even hold, because CFTC isn't doing the investigating. It's more like Nasdaq or Fidelity. Unreal.

*former* federal workers. Like a steel plant closing, laying off 30% of the workforce has political implications.

"Bettor legally required to tell us his name and address, which matched the candidate. Then we Googled him to confirm." This is literally how all 5 of their cases went down. Kalshi is so lazy.

Kalshi bragging about catching a candidate betting $50 on himself to win a primary. But they have know-your-customer rules! The algo is literally IF bettor_name = candidate_name THEN flag. They seem unable to catch staff, family, friends who are surely trading. "Over a dozen" not even 20, please.

This is a pretty comprehensive answer as to why ped deaths are increasing IMO. The smartphone / vehicle-screen issue is probably the easiest to address, and we REALLY need more data on this. The big NHTSA naturalistic driving study ended in 2016; phones have gotten much more distracting since then!

NTSB's research division hasn't published anything in 3.5 years. Are they still active? I'm not being flippant - this is a dream job. www.ntsb.gov/safety/safet...

VDOT is hiring an Assistant Division Administrator for Planning and Performance in VDOT’s Traffic Operations Division. This role is directly above the CAV Program Manager in the org chart, and is heavily involved on automated driving systems. etgi.fa.us8.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

All these are going to age so badly once we realize prediction markets are the cigarettes of the 2020s.

NHTSA's 2025 fatal crash data shows another big drop. Great news, but the continuing story is that we hit that per-mile rate back in 2011. 15 years of tech and we're flat, while every other developed country is stacking gains.

Big robot outage today in Wuhan. Talk of system/fleetwide hard failure, ie system crash, many robots stopped in place/lane, some got crashed into, many ppl stranded. Prob fewer robots but harder failures w worse MRC than Waymo's in SF last Dec. Steep gradient decent to road hazard. Video & news 🧵

As we approach tax time, reminder that the Cato Institute AND the Urban Institute say the Trump Accounts are only good for the free money and that people shouldn't contribute due to the 18-year lockup and bizarre tax treatment. It's a way for the wealthy to give $90,000 to their kids' retirement.

Lmao the reason this leaked was because he wanted to buy IDEF, a totally illiquid BlackRock fund that trades ~$100k a day, instead of ITA which trades hundred of millions, so he had his brokers call up BlackRock and ask for a direct creation under his name. There’s so many layers of stupidity here.

Between 6am and 2pm, about 1 out of 10 fatal crashes have a driver with BAC > 0.08 (legally impaired in every state). At 1am on a weeknight, it's 1 out of 2. On weekend nights, it's almost 2 out of 3.

NHTSA is hiring technical experts in the Office of Automation Safety. This was posted exactly 6 weeks after Sen. Cantwell pointed out NHTSA had only 4 people in this office regulating a $60B industry. www.youtube.com/live/6bm7f95... www.usajobs.gov/job/861513300

A Waymo robot reportedly rearended at: Motel 6, Great Highway, San Francisco It is illegal to stop anywhere on that side of that block. The pole where this appears to have happened has a No Stopping Anytime sign. Waymo's never disclosed an illegal stop in a crash report. OP: reddit.SupergurlKara

They reason for Selig's bizarre argument is that they are pushing for unlimited investments in these markets. If sanely capped at $1000 per person, then they are only useful for information, not as a hedge. So he needs a high dollar example, regardless of plausibility.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on managing risk. They regulate prediction markets.

“Marco, we need you to sell 10 million crude deltas today”

Polymarket's CEO on "value."

The bedroom on the DHS private jet is nicer than the bedrooms in many working Americans' homes. This is an unnecessary, disgusting misuse of our taxpayer dollars. There is no feasible explanation as to why ANY public official would need this level of luxury.

To be clear, Mulvaney's group is laser focused on sports contracts. They seem to be fine with alien invasion, Greenland, Superbowl halftime markets. That means they are probably funded by state-regulated sportsbooks. Which is fine, whatever. But this is not a moral crusade here.

Consumer Action for a Strong Economy is part of Mulvaney's new anti-prediction market coalition Gambling is Not Investing. CASE advocates "free-market" solutions to consumer protection. Their About page lists consumer safety last AND with Lorem Ipsum.

I adore this logo.

Fun fact: Kalshi has to submit detailed proposals for their markets to the CFTC. Here's the one for "Will the Executive Branch confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life?" www.cftc.gov/sites/defaul...

CFTC Chair Selig: "we are actually staffing up" = hiring unpaid students.

TIL that Polymarket sponsors Matt Yglesias’s Substack.

Top of my gratitude list is that I found a career that doesn't require me to be active on LinkedIn.

The Trump Accounts are weird. You're taxed going in and going out, no withdrawals before age 18, not even for emergencies. So you want to be doing pretty well to contribute, e.g. maxed 401k, Roth IRAs, 529s, emergency fund. The $5k no-income-limit contribution helps the wealthy, though.

Can we slow this train down please? h/t gamblingharm.org/polymarket-g...

Bank of America: the top 30 customers could be making up ~35% of total volume on Kalshi so far in 2026 (I get that the 80/20 rule is a thing, but still unsettling to see it be this extreme and apply to zero/negative sum outcome biz)

Waymo admits that some portion of their remote operators are based in the Philippines. The video is illustrative as you can see that Waymo really does not want to answer this question. I would love to know whether they got back to @markey.senate.gov with numbers, and what those were.

Waymo tells the Senate one thing, California regulators another. So do remote operators ever take control of the vehicle? When has this happened? In what circumstances will it happen again? bsky.app/profile/noah...

The claim in this article is not supported by the data. SGO and NHTSA general public data have different reporting thresholds, and the authors also seems to have used raw gen. pub. crash counts, instead of total vehicles INVOLVED in crashes. Better benchmark is around 50-100k miles b/w crashes.

Waymo is telling UK their telops can't do what they told CPUC they can do: “Waymo does not use remote driving or teleoperation where a human takes control of the vehicle....They cannot drive the car,” George Ivanov, Head of International Policy and Government Affairs zagdaily.com/featured/way...

Kalshi loves to talk about how they're a market, not a dirty little sportsbook that sets their own odds. Yet you can only bet "Yes" on NBA player scoring prop bets. There's no "No" option. So who's taking the other side? No one knows! Probably Kalshi or a sportsbook partner. Nice.

It's already been corrected online, but the @newyorker.com print edition has this insane fact. I suspect they got this from the US Sentencing Commission, but that's because sex crimes involving Native Americans and occurring on reservations go to federal court. When including state courts, it's <1%.

@aniccia.bsky.social reminded me that Waymo does teledrive in limited circumstances. This is done by the Event Response Team, who I assume are US-based since they speak directly with 1st responders, as opposed to the remote assist who use pre-recorded messages. www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc...

Ed's correct. Waymos get occasional assistance but I doubt they teledrive ("mechanical turk"). Partly because Waymo has consistently said this AND because there are significant technical limitations - latency would be too high and too variable. But I would love NHTSA to deep dive this.

NHTSA closed their year+ investigation of Waymo. Waymo's 2 recalls re to this investigation were for crashing into a utility pole and roadway barriers. Evidently, robots repeatedly driving on the wrong side of the road into traffic and disobeying traffic control devices is ok in USA. Scale that.

I'm late, but this is the first confirmation I've seen of Waymo using foreign-based remote operators. Prior, there was only a rumored podcast ep, immediately cease-and-desisted. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...