Super thrilled to say our study "A Mathematical Model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle" is now live in Nature Comms. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59554-z Within days of being identified, cases of H5N1 in cows were popping up all over the US, how was it spreading so quickly? 🧵

Feels like people are putting a lot of faith in the fact that pandemics are rare events, often — though not always — with multiple decades between them. Nature doesn't work on a schedule. We assume it does at our peril. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/h...

🚨 New paper on ArXiv: “Uncertainty quantification and posterior sampling for network reconstruction” TL;DR; We present an efficient method to sample the entire ensemble of possible network reconstructions that are compatible with an indirect observation, e.g. a dynamics. Short thread: 1/N

Especially stoked with this week's episode of #ScienceInContext where the roles were reversed and Ryan O'Hare interviewed me about our work on the policy impact of the @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social #COVID19 Response Team

NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with prof @thomaschurcher.bsky.social about the recent World Malaria report, #malaria control interventions, modelling and bed nets 👇 youtu.be/B0spuTWEF2c

We've been running this short course for around 30 years now, while constantly updating to the cutting edge of techniques. Please do circulate to any and all interested parties, and drop me a message if you have any questions!

I spoke with The I Paper just before Christmas about the continued threat of H5N1 bird flu; how unexpected the jump to cows was; and the many blind spots that exist in our understanding of pathogen "crossover".

Not unexpected given wild bird migrations, but didn't expect this headline!

NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext! This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with Patrick Doohan about Lassa fever: historic outbreaks, mathematical models & disease parameters. Why is a comprehensive overview informing future real-time analysis of Lassa outbreaks so important? youtu.be/dZgtOgDyIUs

Awesome session yesterday at the first ever #London #Infection & #Ecology Network (LIEN) seminar. Met some great people, heard some terrific talks, and got to see this very cool geological map of London.

"Forecasters criticised". As Prof. Ralf Toumi explained in our climate and health #podcast episode - extreme weather due to climate change is incredibly hard to predict. It's not just damaging, but we can't accurately predict it! www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...

this is why the most powerful undergraduate degree you can get is in film. learning how to properly watch a movie about a job means you can convincingly do the job when the time comes

I've been seeing this "risk increases 5-fold this winter" stat a lot. H5N1 obviously a big threat, but this specific stat is very misleading. That is a five-fold increase compared to the summer, and based on a non-peer-reviewed model. Basically just "more flu in winter".

Didn't feel a thing during this year's #flu shot. Asked the doctor why some shots hurt more than others. She explained the trick is about finding "...the juiciest part of the muscle."

A group of us have been working on creating a repository of models and epidemiological parameters ready-to-use in future epidemics, with a focus on high-threat pathogens. Today our Lassa review is out: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti.... More on the overall project here: bit.ly/imperial-PERG

Pennsylvania will now require precautionary bulk testing of milk for bird flu from dairy farms as an added measure to prevent the spread of H5N1 bird flu, according to Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding.

Deeply insightful (and sobering) panel discussion right now in @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social Jameel Institute event on healthcare priorities in conflict settings. Including Rachael Cummings, Save the Children's Humanitarian Director, remotely joining from Gaza. #healthsystems #publichealth

#Winter is here. All #academics get out their matching winter outfits. #Twinning

Want to listen to a great #epidemiology / #PublicHealth #science #podcast ? Might I then recommend JameelCast? Our podcast short series showcasing the work being done within Imperial College's Jameel Institute! Aimed at a general audience, web link here: jameelcast.pinecast.co

Introduction Post: I'm Thom, I'm a mathematician by training, and I work on modelling a variety of infectious diseases within Imperial's @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social 😷🦠 In general, my work is about squeezing sparse datasets for any details they're hiding.