Government Shutdown? If a shutdown results from this political impasse, who benefits? Who suffers? Let’s talk. The president meets with key congressional leaders this afternoon. Unless a last-minute resolution results, this shutdown will be different. youtube.com/shorts/BdxSn...

My Chat with Martin Mezei: Life and Business Lessons dkotok.substack.com/p/my-chat-wi... “My origins were in a grocery store in Vineland, New Jersey, where I learned in the grocery store some business applications from my father and from my grandfather – And they were my teachers.” – David Kotok

My Chat with Martin Mezei: Life & Business Lessons kotokreport.com/my-chat-with... Our conversation was a great distraction from the disruption and uncertainty spreading around the world. It was an opportunity to reflect on half a century’s experience in finance and business principles I learned.

"William C. Dudley, known to everyone as Bill, came to the NYABE’s event honoring him for lifetime achievement in business economics in high spirits. It’s clearly an honor to be the 48th annual recipient of the William F. Butler Award..." substack.com/home/post/p-...

Reader's Favorite Review Excerpt [The Fed and the Flu] is a crucial resource for policymakers, economists, and anyone interested in public health and economic policy intersections. The book is a significant contribution to the economic literature on pandemics... www.thefedandtheflu.com/general-7

Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, September 26, 2025 Week in Review is out with Matt C. McAleer, President & Director of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau, Chief Investment Officer. www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDD9...

REVIEWS | The Fed and the Flu www.thefedandtheflu.com/general-7 Before Covid-19 few economic commentators who thought about big economic risks pointed to a pandemic. Yet, we are now living with the profound impacts of both the pandemic and the policy responses to it. Continued.

"Today, Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc announces its intention to acquire the legendary fixed income wealth shop Cumberland Advisors of Sarasota, FL. This is going to complement the rest of our company very well." www.linkedin.com/posts/rory-r...

Kotok cites data over millennia to show that pandemics typically cause natural real interest rates to decline, and productivity and inequality to rise. Kotok argues that we must prepare for the next pandemic and shares his view on the origin of the COVID virus. www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F0E...

Mike Green has demonstrated in his commentary how policy lurched from one extreme under Biden to the other extreme under Trump. He proposed the creation of a thoughtful middle approach w/ a market-oriented pricing mechanism & segmentation to allow critical needs. dkotok.substack.com/p/h-1b-visa-...

H-1B Visa Fees – A Thoughtful Approach kotokreport.com/h-1b-visa-fe... Mike Green's piece on Pres Trump’s $100k visa fee is well worth a serious read. His proposal for a Dutch auction system is one I support, & his criticism of the Biden-era cheapening of visas is fair game for serious discussion.

Details about the 22 South Korean-US projects put at risk because of the Hyundai ICE raid in Georgia: dkotok.substack.com/p/the-hyunda...

In an executive order on Sept 19, Trump complicated the challenges faced by corporations attempting to invest in US operations, by announcing an annual fee for H-1B visas of $100k per year. Question: Does this move help economics in the US, hurt, or no change? dkotok.substack.com/p/the-hyunda...

The Hyundai Affair – Part 2 dkotok.substack.com/p/the-hyunda... Pres Trump responded after the Hyundai raid, demonstrating awareness of problems. In my view, no one believes POTUS because his own Homeland Security and ICE team are demonstrably inept and make his comments appear disingenuous.

"The Rick Report" by Rick Newman on Substack ricknewmanreport.substack.com In Sept 2025, Rick went independent as the author of "The Rick Report," a newsletter that is an ongoing analysis of what matters and what doesn't matter in the Trump economy w/o fomenting outrage like some news outfits.

Did you know I've authored or co-authored five books, including The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (Feb 2025, www.thefedandtheflu.com)? This book examines how pandemic economic shocks have played out across history and how the Fed Reserve responded to the COVID-19 pandemic shock.

Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, September 19, 2025 "Week in Review" is out with Matt C. McAleer, President & Director of Private Wealth, and Shaun Burgess, PM Strategist. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yqkx... #Markets #Investing #FixedIncome #Equities

President Trump launched the firing squad at Cook based on Pulte’s allegation, about which there is now doubt. Two courts have ruled against Trump. The SCOTUS is still a question, but the Supreme Court's inaction allowed Cook to vote at the Fed meeting. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-fed-an...

My speculation is that Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is going to be a political casualty because of the embarrassing way he launched the Lisa Cook Affair. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-fed-an...

Former Atlanta Fed President says more than two rate cuts in Fed's Dot Plot would put FOMC's commitment to 2% inflation target in peril. #TheFed #Inflation #Economy kathleenhays.substack.com/p/lockhart-s...

Fox News reports that “on Truth Social, Trump urged foreign companies investing in the US to respect immigration laws while pledging to make it ‘quickly and legally possible’ for them to bring in skilled workers.” dkotok.substack.com/p/the-hyunda...

"This conversation is packed with old school wisdom that still works today, including why David asks job candidates to solve 17+18 on the spot and makes them proofread their own handwriting." www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7dA...

"If companies that are accelerating factory construction under pressure to invest are treated like criminal organizations, who would be willing to invest?" dkotok.substack.com/p/the-hyunda... #Immigration #ICE #Economy

Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, September 12, 2025 "Week in Review" update on market conditions, equities & bonds is now available. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ox-...

I had the opportunity to reflect with others last night about the attacks of 9/11/2001 and shared my own fortunate escape from the World Trade Center that day. dkotok.substack.com/p/kotok-quic...

With a heavy heart I share some thoughts on this somber 9/11 anniversary. youtu.be/Q-nAQrkapmU

Rick Newman (on Twitter or Bluesky, @rickjnewman) challenges us with this: Pres Trump thinks he can manage the economy better than the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell. Can he? How effective is the Fed, anyway? What does it even do? Take the quiz to find out. www.rickjnewman.com/konomyquiz

Whither FEMA? The longer the road to recovery after a disaster, the greater the economic hit over time. FEMA’s capacity to provide adequate help at the request of the disaster-struck states has been sorely tested. dkotok.substack.com/p/climate-ch...

Renewable energy projects have been one means to help address energy demand and costs, which are rising sharply with the buildout of AI data centers. However, their future looks increasingly bleak in the US. dkotok.substack.com/p/climate-ch... #Climate ##Economy #ClimateAdaptation

Invariably, the economic impact of mass contagious illness is profound & often long-lasting.The striking & remarkable conclusion is that ... large segments of the population carry a disturbingly similar tendency: a burgeoning lack of trust in governing entities.... www.thefedandtheflu.com/general-7

"The slowdown in NFP gains over the past several months suggests that the overall economy is cooling. Some have suggested that early use of AI is reducing job demand without impacting overall economic growth." www.cumber.com/market-comme... www.linkedin.com/posts/david-...

Quick thoughts about the extraordinary week of news we've had that includes China's Xi, Putin, & Kim attending Beijing's massive Military Parade, Federal Reserve Bank Independence under attack, and what's news with employment.

Some of the photos from Russian attacks on our cities look like paintings. Like this one: four kids and their dog, all sitting near their apartment building in Kyiv, ruined by Russian missiles and drones. I l’ve never seen anything as horrifying as war. And yet, here I feel

The Fed is clearly a target — Trump wants to shape interest-rate policy at the expense of Fed independence. The market is responding by repricing the creditworthiness of the United States. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-lisa-c... #TheFed #Markets

Since the Lisa Cook affair broke into the headlines, the pricing of CDS on the US has risen in all tenors from 1yr to 10yrs. (CDS tenors do not extend beyond 10yrs) In addition, the yield curve of US T-debt has steepened when you extend it out to 30yrs. dkotok.substack.com/p/the-lisa-c...

How quickly will the administration’s actions cut into the quality of the BLS’s data, respected around the world as the gold standard, and crucial to our creditors?

Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of TLR Analytics have published an excellent piece on the deep history of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the significance of President Trump’s interference with it. dkotok.substack.com/p/celebratin...

A Summer Reading List for Business Leaders is incomplete without a copy of "The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks." Get your copy at www.thefedandtheflu.com/order

This chart from the August 13, 2025, edition of the Sevens Report offers a depiction worth at least a thousand words. We thank Tom Essaye for permission to share the chart with our readers. For details about Tom’s valuable and substantive newsletter, see sevensreport.com. (1/3)

Fed Governor Cook Says Trump Has No Authority To Fire Her www.barrons.com/news/fed-gov... "The Supreme Court's conservative majority recently allowed Trump to fire members of other independent government boards, but notably created a carveout for the Federal Reserve in its ruling." (1/2)

"What Should the Fed Do? I asked a number of my friends who think and care deeply about Fed policy about what they think the Fed should do at the September meeting. Normally, there is some sort of consensus in the perspectives. Not this time." -John Mauldin talkmarkets.com/content/us-m...

In Memoriam: Pres. Charles Plosser "Charles will be remembered for his dedication to public service & stewardship of the nation’s economy. His leadership & contributions have made a lasting impact on the work of the Philadelphia Fed & Federal Reserve System. www.philadelphiafed.org/about-us/in-...

So why do we expect the US economy to trend down to lower growth? Why do we expect it to produce a stagflationary result? Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession? dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di...

Markets Discussion Series Part 8: Labor Markets — Slowdown or Recession? Deportations and restrictive immigration policy portend economic growth rate declines and maybe a full recession. dkotok.substack.com/p/markets-di... #Markets #Recession #Deportations #Immigration #Economy

Join me in Maine at #CampKotok youtu.be/rFfDRWJhx9I?... We talk about how how Camp Kotok grew after 9/11, the themes shaping this year’s discussions, and the powerful firsthand accounts from Ukrainian combat veterans who brought the realities of Russia's war into sharp focus.

When History Meets Markets: Geopolitics, Civility, and Capital with David Kotok | Treussard Talks (E09) www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_1a...

I invite you to read my latest book, Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks. youtu.be/F2n9vhg8zIAThe

Remember Trump saying "Ukraine-US deal is the best guarantee, russia won't attack American businesses in Ukraine"? I'd say I hope somebody asks him now, but since he ignores questions anyway and states the Crimean Peninsula is as big as Texas and is in the ocean, there's probably no point #UaView

General Walsh has offered a prescription for change if Putin is sufficiently punished so that he comes to the table. A coalition is forming to bring that about, we hope. We know Ukraine has suffered the harshest of punishment from Putin, and we know that Ukraine exhibits the fiercest of... (1/2)

Fast-moving events are unfolding, driven by Pres Trump’s initiative. Outcome still uncertain. "The challenge for Trump, Zelensky, and the Europeans is Putin will use this time to continue his aggression..." -General Robert Walsh dkotok.substack.com/p/ukraine-su... #Russia #Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar