Heads up Eugene, Oregon: I was just down on Amazon Creek near west 11th and it's getting fairly close to topping its banks. I have never seen it so high since about 2012. This image was near west 11th and City View. Moderate rain is expected to continue for the next 4-6 hours or so.

The Willamette Valley in Oregon may be on the verge of a significant flood event as the atmospheric river has stalled over northwest Oregon. Salem already has 2.10" today and is likely to challenge its top 10 daily precipitation total all time.

Already 61F in Eugene Oregon at noon. This is tied for 40th warmest Dec day since 1938. Today's record is 64F and the all-time December record is 68F. This follows from November being the warmest Nov on record for Oregon since records began in 1895.

The Emigrant Fire in the central Oregon Cascades has burned over 6000 acres at this point in an area that has received record or near-record low precipitation since April 1st this year (based on 45 years of data), as shown by nearby SNOTEL stations.

The Emigrant Fire in the central Oregon Cascades is unfortunately growing rapidly and is now sprouting a broad pyrocumulus cloud, as seen from the Univ of Oregon Wildfire camera placed on Peak 2 of Willamette Pass ski resort.

Just had a helicopter with a water bucket fly over my house in south Eugene (Oregon), very likely out to the new fire just east of Oakridge.

New report finds @oregonstate.edu has $3.5 billion in economic impact on Oregon's economy: beav.es/Nrm

The 2024 Pacific Northwest Water Year Impacts Assessment is now available. Learn about variation in temperature, precipitation, and snowpack; and their effects on agriculture and other sectors; across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho during the past water year. www.drought.gov/documents/20...

I launched a sonde earlier today from Corvallis, Oregon just before noon. The sounding indicated pretty good CAPE and a lot of shear. But it also showed the strong low-level cap that ended up limiting the convective potential.

Oregon's bipartisan Legislative Water Caucus asked that members of the Natural Resources Conservation Service whose positions were terminated be rehired. The positions are essential to production of reliable, timely water supply forecasts. www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/p...

One of the agencies hit hard by the federal cuts was Oregon's NRCS — which measures snowpack and water supply across the PNW. Now a group of OR lawmakers, including rural Republicans, are asking Dept of Ag secretary Brooke Rollins to rehire them: tinyurl.com/9udyup7k

Thanks to KEZI for the opportunity to discuss how staff reductions at the National Weather Service may affect emergency preparedness and response in Oregon and beyond. @larryoneill.bsky.social explains how and why. www.kezi.com/news/local-c...

In addition, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, which is based in Portland and measures snowpack and water supply across the Pacific Northwest, saw its staffing slashed 58% this month, from 12 to five employees.

“This will be really detrimental, and dangerous,” said Larry O’Neill, the Oregon State Climatologist, who works closely with both agencies. “This is a critical public service. It plays a huge role in public safety and the economy, and it’s incredibly cheap for the benefit we get.”

National Weather Service offices that forecast in Oregon are now short-staffed by 30-40%, following Thursday’s cuts, job freezes and buyouts. Those who've lost jobs, or positions that won't be rehired, include meteorologists, hydrologists and technicians. www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/l...

Good news -- Larry the chicken at NWS Portland has not yet been relieved of their duties.

The effects of climate change are expected to bring more freezing rain and severe ice storms to the Willamette Valley.

This weekend’s king tides have packed a punch! 🌊 @koin6.bsky.social #PNW #ORwx #WAwx

Just learned where the name "Argo" is from and its relation with "Jason" in an article by Prof. Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli link.springer.com/article/10.1... A nice short reading for physical oceanographers.

It has been incredible learning about this beautifully complicated place the past two years. Rewilding the Klamath: Inside the world’s largest dam removal and salmon restoration project. beav.es/GAz

The Willamette Valley had a nice wave come through evident in the low stratus cloud field. It behaved a bit like a seiche would in a body of water, except in this case it acted on the cold air pooled into the valley! #orwx

As a denizen of the Willamette Valley in Oregon, I wholeheartedly oppose this movement.

I have a new story out on the American West's declining ability to recover from drought. The story reviews a fantastic study by @climate-guy.bsky.social and others and includes comments from @larryoneill.bsky.social. Thank you both for the interviews. #climatechange #drought

While access to historical weather and climate observations from the US may eventually be in danger, the most immediate and pressing issue by far is the dismantling of public US contributions to the global weather and climate observing system.

Something else unusual about this PacNW storm that is emerging is the amount of lightning associated with it. This is not remotely typical of November weather in the Pacific Northwest.

Just a heads up for those that want to be informed here, there are some weather-adjacent accounts that are claiming the PacNW storm to be equivalent to a cat 3 hurricane. They are mis-reporting wind speed in km/h as mph.

Some perspective on this PacNW storm. The analog is that of the Columbus Day storm of 1962. During that storm, the surface pressure reached an estimated 948mb, while today's storm reached 945mb. The impact difference: today's storm stalled 200 miles off the coast, while the 1962 storm breached it.

Some updates on the PacNW cyclone here. Note that western Washington especially are getting hit hard right now with wind. Adverse impacts from excessive wind and mountain snow are starting to be felt. apnews.com/article/cali...

I live on a little hilltop in SW Eugene, OR. Just had a ferocious wind gust. I saw it gusted to 52 at the Eugene airport a few minutes ago, which is about 7 miles away from me. I'd say it gusted to 70 up here.

For the PacNW, the latest satellite imagery is in on the cyclone from ASCAT-B, which measures surface wind speed and direction over the ocean. It indicates >60 knot sustained winds wrapping around the south and eastern part of the low, which is still well offshore. Forecast looks well on track.

Satellite surface wind estimates from AMSR2 indicate 30 m/s (60 knot) sustained winds wrapping west and south of the low as of about 6am PST.

Satellite surface wind estimates from AMSR2 indicate 30 m/s (60 knot) sustained winds wrapping west and south of the low as of about 6am PST.

Buoy 46005 is probably the closest to the bomb cyclone this morning and its surface pressure is dropping fast -- 1013mb to 978mb in about the last 24 hours. The main low is still about 100-200 miles south of this buoy, so the central pressure of the system is likely somewhat lower than this.

Current forecasts show rapid development of an extremely strong cyclone off the Pacific Northwest coast by late Tuesday afternoon. Its projected strength, as measured by sea level pressure, is <950mb, which could set records. Here are the record low pressures in this part of the world since 1979.

The incipient low for the cyclone forecast to impact the Pacific NW tomorrow looked completely unremarkable late this morning (circled, left). In 36 hours, it is forecast to deepen from 1016mb to 947mb. It is a marvel of modern weather forecasting that these features can be skillfully forecast.

We did a podcast on this being a snowy winter before the season started with Oregon State climatologist @larryoneill.bsky.social . So far, so good. www.statesmanjournal.com/story/travel...

Forecast confidence is increasing that an historically strong low pressure system will approach the Pacific Northwest Tuesday evening. One forecast has the low at about 950mb. If it occurs at that strength, it will be the strongest low in this area since at least 1979.

Exactly! And here is a study exploring the predictability of peak snowpack to the early season: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

❄️ The mountain snowpack in Oregon is off to a great start so far. During the winter of 2017-2018, the Cascades got off to a similarly great start, but ended up being well below average. A great start to snow season does not guarantee it will end well! #orwx

Already hearing the thunder from this storm heading into Eugene OR within the next 30 minutes. It is already a relatively prolific lightning producer by PacNW standards. Wet season thunderstorms originating over the ocean usually fall apart over the coastal mtns, but not this one! #orwx

The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute is now on Bluesky.