Populism and the rule of law: The importance of institutional legacies by Andreas Kyriacou and Pedro Trivin is now available in Early View. @andreaspkyriacou.bsky.social @pedrotrivin.bsky.social ajps.org/2025/01/21/p...

Let’s stop it at the first stage

Bottom line: Populists are most dangerous to the rule of law in societies where legal institutions are already fragile. In countries like the U.S., with stronger traditions, institutions can limit the damage—but the impact remains non-negligible. 7/7

While we don’t directly test how populists dismantle institutions, we do not observe that populists are more likely to reform the constitutions, but they are more likely to replace it in contexts with weak rule of law. 6/7

iii) Populists attack the rule of law broadly: - Judicial independence weakens. - Access to justice erodes. - Corruption increases. 5/7

Empirically, we use Synthetic Control Methods to analyze a cross-country sample including 51 populist events, we find that: i) Populist governments cause a substantial and persistent decline in the rule of law—an 11.4 percentage-point drop after 15 years. 3/7

Core Idea: Populists’ ability to undermine the rule of law depends on a country’s institutional legacies and societal norms. When respect for the law is ingrained as expected behavior, populists face stronger resistance—and institutions hold up better. 2/7

Thrilled to kick off my Bluesky account by sharing that our paper, "Populism and the Rule of Law: The Importance of Institutional Legacies" (with @andreaspkyriacou.bsky.social ), is now published in the AJPS (@ajpseditor.bsky.social)! Here’s what we found. 👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....