Stefan Wolff
@stefwolff.bsky.social
📤 320
📥 627
📝 78
Orbán's political exit has unlocked €90 billion in EU loans for Ukraine, but deep divergence on membership terms remains -- and the consequences of a compromise could be disastrous for Ukraine and the EU alike:
bit.ly/4d6SU8y
loading . . .
Orbán's election defeat frees €90 billion for Ukraine — but the harder question is EU membership
By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff
https://bit.ly/4d6SU8y
about 1 month ago
0
0
0
Proudly announcing that my article with
@dawnwalsh.bsky.social
on "External Involvement in Peace Agreements" has just been published in Nationalism and Ethnic Politics and is free to read and download here:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
.
loading . . .
External Involvement in Peace Agreements: Providing Physical Security or Facilitating Governance?
Powersharing peace agreements are said to require extensive and prolonged external involvement to facilitate shared governance. However, no comprehensive comparison exists of the roles provided for...
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13537113.2026.2646349
about 1 month ago
0
1
2
Ceasefires tend to collapse as a result of minor incidents that then spiral out of control—my interview with Trevor Phillips on The Times at One:
www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/is-the-ame...
loading . . .
"Is the American strategy working or flailing?" — Iran, the blockade, and China
The Iran–US ceasefire expires 22 April. Stefan Wolff on back-channel talks, the blockade risk, and why China is failing its global leadership test.
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/is-the-american-strategy-working
about 1 month ago
0
0
0
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
Foreign Policy Centre
2 months ago
🇲🇩 🇪🇺 New Op-Ed | Standing up to the Kremlin: Lessons from Moldova for defeating Russian election interference By Philip J. Javens & Prof
@stefwolff.bsky.social
How did Moldova withstand large-scale
#Russian
FIMI in its 2025 elections? 📖 Read ⬇️
fpc.org.uk/op-ed-standi...
loading . . .
Op-ed | Standing up to the Kremlin: Lessons from Moldova for Defeating Russian Election Interference - The Foreign Policy Centre
Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) has been high on the agenda of liberal democracies for years.[1] The European External Action Service has just published its fourth annual repo...
https://fpc.org.uk/op-ed-standing-up-to-the-kremlin-lessons-from-moldova-for-defeating-russian-election-interference/
0
6
3
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
PSA Ethnopolitics Specialist Group
about 2 months ago
In addition to our three panels, Ethnopolitics SG emeritus convenors
@stefwolff.bsky.social
and
@tagarin.bsky.social
took part alongside
@neophytosloizides.bsky.social
as discussants at the launch of John McGarry's (
@queensucsdd.bsky.social
) magisterial new book, The Politics of Domination.
1
2
1
Always a pleasure to cooperate with
@rgwhitman.bsky.social
... and intellectually productive:
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
0
2
1
Russia is a likely winner of the war against Iran, but only in the short term:
bit.ly/4rUzby4
3 months ago
0
0
0
A reconstituted European alliance, with a coalition at its heart that is not just willing but also capable of deterring Russia, is necessary and possible:
bit.ly/40sGX61
loading . . .
After four years of war, an end of the fighting in Ukraine is not in sight
But Kyiv's western allies should no longer be in any doubt about what to do.
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/after-four-years-of-war
3 months ago
0
0
0
We have just published Episode 2 of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition, in which we talk with Tamirace Fakhoury and John Nagle about their work on power sharing and contentious politics in divided societies:
bit.ly/4tI9gea
3 months ago
0
0
1
The OSCE – notwithstanding the organisation’s ongoing crisis – still represents an important forum to articulate and negotiate participating States’ national interests:
bit.ly/46jVdS4
loading . . .
Why it's worth saving the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
And what role the UK can play in restoring the organisation's operational effectiveness
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/why-its-worth-saving-the-osce
3 months ago
0
0
0
The inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace will mostly be remembered for its chairman-for-life threatening Iran with war:
bit.ly/4tUf44z
loading . . .
Pay-as-you-mediate: Iran, Ukraine and Donald Trump's board of peace
Conflict settlements are not real-estate deals.
https://bit.ly/4tUf44z
3 months ago
0
0
0
Putin may think that he has successfully tricked Trump into doing his bidding. But on this occasion, Zelensky may have outsmarted them both, albeit at the price of the war against his country continuing.
navigatingthevortex.substack.com/p/the-five-p...
loading . . .
The five problems with Trump's latest Ukraine peace plan that will only prolong the war
By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff
https://navigatingthevortex.substack.com/p/the-five-problems-with-trumps-latest-ukraine-peace-plan
4 months ago
0
2
2
Proudly announcing my latest co-production which can be pre-ordered here:
academic.oup.com/book/62306
4 months ago
0
2
2
Claims of progress in the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are therefore at best over-optimistic and at worst self-deluding:
bit.ly/3Mfn2E7
loading . . .
Farcical peace talks continue in Abu Dhabi as Russia tries to bomb and freeze Ukraine into submission
Russia, Ukraine and the US have met for a second time in as many weeks to discuss a possible cessation of hostilities.
https://bit.ly/3Mfn2E7
4 months ago
0
0
0
After two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi, it remains unclear whether an actual negotiation process will now get under way between Russia and Ukraine and what its format and direction will be:
bit.ly/4bVyCif
4 months ago
0
0
0
Europe and its few scattered allies elsewhere need to start acting as if they were alone in a hostile world—because they are:
bit.ly/4pVO0hV
loading . . .
Trump's performance at Davos underscored America's diminishing trustworthiness and dependability
The consequences for Britain, the EU, and Ukraine are obvious and unpleasant.
https://bit.ly/4pVO0hV
4 months ago
0
0
0
Current transatlantic de-escalation notwithstanding, has Europe done enough to persuade President Trump to change course permanently over Greenland?
bit.ly/4adJgj5
loading . . .
Europe's push-back over Greenland forced a Trump climb-down — for now.
But the reprieve is likely only temporary.
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/europe-push-back-over-greenland
4 months ago
0
0
1
The war in Ukraine is likely to mark a few more milestones before there is another opportunity to prove again that aggression never pays:
bit.ly/4pCQOAB
loading . . .
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now outlasts the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany
What does history tell us about Kyiv’s prospects?
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/russias-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine
4 months ago
0
2
0
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
The Debate - France 24
5 months ago
🇺🇸🇬🇱 The U.S. still depends on defense cooperation with Europe, warns
@stefwolff.bsky.social
, with any move on
#Greenland
carrying serious security risks.
loading . . .
0
3
2
The law of the jungle is back — and the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price for it:
bit.ly/3YsbbVV
loading . . .
Trump's Venezuela raid foreshadows more turbulence in a new 'great power' carve-up of the world
It signals the return of the law of the jungle for which the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price.
https://bit.ly/3YsbbVV
5 months ago
0
1
0
In light of recent US experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, more instability, not less, will be the likely result of the capture of Maduro:
bit.ly/4qFYMtC
5 months ago
0
2
0
The fighting in Ukraine is likely to continue unabated for the time being as neither of the warring sides, nor their backers, appear exhausted enough for peace:
bit.ly/4azaQrU
loading . . .
The fall of Siversk caps a difficult year for Ukraine
What the end of the war will look like is as unclear as when and how the sides will get there.
https://bit.ly/4azaQrU
5 months ago
0
0
0
Internal divisions over Ukraine funding and Mercosur trade deal expose limitations of EU leadership in a world carved up by Washington, Moscow and Beijing:
bit.ly/3MEtWD1
loading . . .
A fudge on Ukraine and a delay on Mercosur: how the EU procrastinates and fails to prove Trump wrong
By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/a-fudge-on-ukraine-and-a-delay-on
5 months ago
0
0
0
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
Richard G. Whitman
5 months ago
EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions - my analysis with
@stefwolff.bsky.social
theconversation.com/eu-agrees-90...
loading . . .
EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions
To placate pro-Moscow governments in Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, the EU had to include an ‘opt-out’ clause for its support for Ukraine.
https://theconversation.com/eu-agrees-90-billion-loan-to-ukraine-but-squabbles-over-frozen-russian-assets-expose-the-blocs-deep-divisions-272095?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=bylineblueskybutton
0
3
2
For Europe, deterring Russia and appeasing the US have become existential priorities in a bigger game in which Ukraine might end up as yet another bargaining chip:
bit.ly/4abQ8xV
loading . . .
New US national security strategy adds to Ukraine’s woes and exacerbates Europe’s dilemmas
By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff
https://bit.ly/4abQ8xV
6 months ago
0
1
1
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
Zentrum für Osteuropa- und internationale Studien (ZOiS)
6 months ago
Russian repression against Crimean #Tatars in occupied Ukraine follows a pattern. Using a new geo-coded event dataset, researchers Elmira Muratova &
@felixschulte.bsky.social
#Tatars
map human rights violations & explain why repression is often carried out on Thursdays. More on the
#KonKoop
DataLab blog ⤵️
loading . . .
Thursdays are for Searches: The Russian Repression Calendar in Occupied Crimea - KonKoop
Authoritarian control follows a grim calculus. The literature on state repression shows that coercion is not random but operates under a highly strategic logic. Russia’s repressive campaign in its occupied territories in Ukraine is no exception. Shortly after the illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea in February and March 2014,…
https://konkoop.de/index.php/datalab/thursdays-are-for-searches-the-russian-repression-calendar-in-occupied-crimea/
1
13
14
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
Foreign Policy Centre
6 months ago
🔎🇬🇪 New Expert Briefing | Georgia’s Political Landscape in Focus: A critical point for
#democracy
On 11 Nov, FPC convened a parliamentary roundtable chaired by
@joepowell.bsky.social
MP featuring: Eka Gigauri Nino Evgenidze Prof
@stefwolff.bsky.social
📖 Read key insights:
fpc.org.uk/wp-content/u...
1
3
2
Available now: The first episode of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition featuring an interview with
@georgekyris.bsky.social
on the recognition of Palestine:
bit.ly/4rp2ZTq
loading . . .
Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition | Episode 1
George Kyris, The Recognition of a Right to Statehood and Palestine
https://bit.ly/4rp2ZTq
6 months ago
0
3
2
The amateurish nature of a process that produced Trump’s 28-point plan should be the real worry for Ukraine and its partners:
bit.ly/483wTFp
loading . . .
Trump’s 28-point plan was the result of a well-timed Russian move.
For now, however, it is unlikely to work out the way the Kremlin had planned.
https://bit.ly/483wTFp
6 months ago
0
1
0
Talk of Ukraine’s political and military collapse may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy playing into Putin's hands:
bit.ly/4rf5bwV
loading . . .
As US and Russia negotiate again behind Kyiv’s back, Ukrainian and European weakness is exposed
By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff
https://bit.ly/4rf5bwV
6 months ago
0
0
0
The continuation of Russia’s war against Ukraine serves Chinese interests in several important ways:
bit.ly/4p66agW
6 months ago
1
3
1
Tolerating corruption is a luxury that Ukraine can no longer afford if it wants to survive as an independent country — the latest from Tetyana Malyarenko and me:
bit.ly/3WXZJk5
loading . . .
Ukraine's latest corruption scandal not only threatens to derail Zelensky’s government. It also undermines Kyiv's war effort.
By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff
https://bit.ly/3WXZJk5
7 months ago
0
2
1
The EU needs to decide how to balance holding the line on its membership standards while enabling Ukraine to hold the line against Russia:
bit.ly/47FcYeq
loading . . .
The EU's assessment of Ukraine's progress toward membership is decidedly mixed. The report caps a bad month for Kyiv.
By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff
https://bit.ly/47FcYeq
7 months ago
0
1
0
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
Council on Geostrategy
7 months ago
🇬🇧 should ‘think beyond the current geographic extent of the coalition, and consider how links with nations in the South Caucasus and Central Asia can be consolidated and expanded to strengthen it,’ says @stefwolff.bsky.social, @unibirmingham.bsky.social
#BigAsk
#BritainsWorld
loading . . .
How should Britain cultivate the Coalition of the Willing?
The Big Ask | No. 44.2025
https://www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-ask-44-2025
0
2
1
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
Jonty Este
7 months ago
Great piece from
@stefwolff.bsky.social
on @ConversationUK. Thanks to
@alastaircampbell2.bsky.social
and
@rory-stewart.bsky.social
for the mention. As ever, Stefan's analysis of thie complex and fast-moving issue is spot on.
theconversation.com/trumps-heate...
loading . . .
Trump’s heated White House meeting with Zelensky shows how well Putin is playing the US president
It looked as if the US might supply Ukraine with game-changing new weapons. Then the Russian president phoned Donald Trump.
https://theconversation.com/trumps-heated-white-house-meeting-with-zelensky-shows-how-well-putin-is-playing-the-us-president-267760?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=bylineblueskybutton
24
201
74
As Trump flip-flops and the coalition of the willing is unlikely to go beyond securing Ukraine’s immediate survival, a credible pathway to ending the war with a just and stable peace is still lacking -- my latest analysis with
@rgwhitman.bsky.social
for
@navvortex.bsky.social
:
bit.ly/43IOKP9
loading . . .
Despite another week of diplomatic whiplash, an end to the fighting in Ukraine is not in sight
By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/despite-another-week-of-diplomatic-whiplash-an-end-to-the-fighting-in-ukraine-is-not-in-sight
7 months ago
0
3
1
Three key take-aways from the Trump-Putin-Zelensky diplomatic flurry over the past few weeks:
bit.ly/3KY7HqK
7 months ago
0
0
0
Unsurprisingly, Putin gets Trump to pivot again:
bit.ly/42NC9Kd
7 months ago
0
1
1
reposted by
Stefan Wolff
Political Studies Association
8 months ago
Following the announcement of this year’s
#NobelPeacePrize
winner, María Corina Machado, leader of Venzuela’s opposition movement, PSA Trustee
@stefwolff.bsky.social
reflects on the competition and controversies surrounding the prize
@uk.theconversation.com
loading . . .
Donald Trump would have been an unsuitable choice for the 2025 Nobel peace prize – but he may be a more serious contender in 2026
The peace prize rules made it hard for the US president to win this year. But that doesn’t rule him out for 2026.
https://buff.ly/bEShse1
0
0
2
Recognising a Russian sphere of influence would most likely encourage dreams of further expansion in the Kremlin:
bit.ly/4hfvKgV
7 months ago
0
0
0
I was interviewed yesterday by
@newstalkfm.bsky.social
on Trump's Middle East diplomacy
www.newstalk.com/podcasts/new...
loading . . .
Could Dead Cat Diplomacy Actually Work? | Newstalk
It was an extraordinary day in the Middle East. Hostages returned home to scenes of jubilation an...
https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/newstalk-daily/could-dead-cat-diplomacy-actually-work
8 months ago
0
1
0
If Trump wants to be a serious contender for the 2026 Nobel peace Prize, he needs to double down on his peace-making efforts and prevent his grandiose claims from being proven wrong:
bit.ly/4q1ntkN
8 months ago
0
2
0
BASEES Call for Papers deadline extended to 24 October 2025! Join us at the University of Birmingham, 10-12 April 2026:
basees.org/news-1/2025/...
.
loading . . .
Call for Papers - BASEES 2026 Annual Conference, University of Birmingham, 10-12 April 2026 — Basees
https://basees.org/news-1/2025/7/30/call-for-papers-basees-2026-annual-conference-university-of-birmingham-10-12-april-2026
8 months ago
0
2
1
Despite spending millions on vote buying and disinformation, Russia has not been able to turn Moldova into a country in which a majority of the population would want to jeopardise their European future:
bit.ly/4nzhP7S
8 months ago
0
1
0
Time is running out for Europe to prevent Russia from broadening its war against Ukraine into a full-blown military confrontation with the west: my latest analysis with
@rgwhitman.bsky.social
:
bit.ly/42e0qZB
8 months ago
0
2
2
Increasing Russian provocations and Trump wishing everyone ‘good luck’ mean that muddling through is no longer an option for Europe:
bit.ly/3IDtdQy
loading . . .
Ukraine’s coalition of allies needs to be more than willing — it needs to get ready
Russian provocations and Trump's latest pivot put yet more pressure on Europe.
https://www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/ukraines-coalition-of-allies-needs-to-get-ready
8 months ago
0
3
1
Beyond full-throated condemnation, the western response to the latest Russian escalation has been worryingly underwhelming:
bit.ly/47ANron
loading . . .
Russian drones in Polish airspace (part 2): A provocation – and a test
There is a real danger of the Ukraine war spilling over into NATO territory.
https://bit.ly/47ANron
9 months ago
0
2
0
Putin senses opportunities for Russia to be the dominant power in Europe — and the west’s lacklustre response to his latest provocation is hardly a deterrent:
bit.ly/4gnWICy
9 months ago
0
0
0
If Trump doesn’t recognise the value of his country’s allies in managing the challenge that China clearly poses to the US, China’s sphere of influence may quickly extend far beyond Asia:
bit.ly/4mJoLyt
9 months ago
1
1
0
Load more
feeds!
log in
