Gold’s dramatic outperformance poses a dilemma for asset allocators. Do we take profits and rebalance — treating gold like any other asset that’s run ahead? Or is this time different, with gold’s surge acting as a warning sign of a much bigger fiat currency crisis?

European small caps look attractive on valuations vs. U.S. small caps. The discount is even larger when compared with U.S. large caps. #Stocks

S&P 500’s Price-to-Sales ratio is now more than double its long-term average. Strong margins justify part of the premium. But if profitability normalizes, investors may find they’ve overpaid for growth. Chart: Charlie Biello #Stocks

US equities trade at record valuations. Historically, such extremes didn’t last and often led to mean reversion. Stimulus may cushion weakness — but the margin of safety is thin. Diversification is key. Chart via @SarnaCapital #Stocks

30 AI stocks make up 43% of S&P 500’s market cap And since Nov ’22, they’ve driven nearly all returns + earnings growth. New era or fragile concentration? Chart: JPM

Since 2008, gold has outperformed equities outside the U.S. Three drivers: easy monetary policy, aggressive fiscal expansion, lack of innovation beyond U.S. tech. For investors, the takeaway is simple: diversification matters. Chart: @johnauthers.bsky.social

I’d argue the inflation surge around Covid will go down in the history books as a classic supply shock. Lockdowns, disrupted supply chains, energy spikes, and labor bottlenecks created inflation dynamics that looked very different from the classic “demand overheating” story.

US markets closed, Europe sleepy—but changes ahead: Deutsche Bank back in Euro Stoxx 50, Rheinmetall replaces Mercedes. Bonds show stress (UK 30y at ’98 highs, Dutch pension reform looms), gold & silver surge, while S&P valuations look stretched. September could get rough. #markets

How much stronger would Apple be today if the billions spent on buybacks in recent years had instead gone into R&D? Siri might not be lagging behind. Apple’s position in the AI race might look very different. #Apple #Stocks

For years, media narratives painted a simple picture: 🇫🇷 Macron as Europe’s political star, leading France into renewal. 🇮🇹 Meloni’s victory as the supposed “end of Western civilization.” Markets, however, tell a different story.

Hopes for lower U.S. interest rates have recently sparked a strong rebound in small-cap stocks. The critical question now: can this momentum truly reverse the long-standing relative downtrend versus large caps — or is it just another short-term rally? Chart: @johnauthers.bsky.social

In 2024, the consensus was deafening: “Chinese equities are uninvestable. The only game in town is the Nasdaq.” But markets love irony. Since that capitulation moment, Chinese stocks have quietly outperformed much of the world.

AI #stocks have reached an unprecedented weight within the S&P 500. While this reflects genuine innovation, it also raises the risk of a sharp correction at some point. The key uncertainty: from what level will it start? Chart: BCA via Oktay Kavrak

Only a small part of US stock market outperformance has come from strong fundamentals. Most of it is driven by a stronger dollar and stretched valuations. Chart: GMO

US banks now trade above pre-GFC valuations 📈 They also sit at a huge premium to book value vs global peers. Would you buy a financial stock well above book? Quality premium… or bubble risk? Chart: @johnauthers.bsky.social

Since April, US stocks have regained leadership, bouncing back strongly after a brief correction earlier this year. What’s your take — was that pullback just a healthy pause, or the start of a broader trend shift in favor of non-US equities?

Since the local low in April 2025, US stocks have outperformed emerging markets again — relative performance is back to late summer 2024 levels. Chart: @johnauthers.bsky.social

2025 remains a momentum-driven market. Looking at factor performance so far, momentum is once again clearly outperforming the other factors—just as it did in 2024.

📉 The S&P 500 is currently trading at a Free Cash Flow Yield of just 2.5% — more than 2 standard deviations below its historical average. Historically, stronger long-term returns came when yields were much higher — during events like the COVID crash or the 2022 bear market. #SP500

📉 A reality check for LPs evaluating venture exposure: The average venture fund from the 2011 vintage has returned just 64% of invested capital to date. Even more concerning: only 42% of those funds have managed to return the original principal.

If the US wants to eliminate its current account deficit, foreign investors would need to dump their US stocks.

Historically, whether it makes sense to add stock market exposure after a correction largely depends on whether the economy enters a recession. Chart: Fred Goodwin

Growth #stocks are no longer outperforming value stocks. Is this the beginning of a new era for value stock dominance? 🤔

📉 Underweighting U.S. equities vs. MSCI ACWI (64% weight). Why? 1️⃣ High valuations → Just 3% annualized return forecast 📊 2️⃣ Better opportunities in EM, Japan & Europe 🌎 3️⃣ Rate hikes & Fed policy = headwinds 🏦 4️⃣ Concentration risk (Magnificent 7 dominance) ⚠️ 5️⃣ Strong USD risks 💲 Diversify.

How much strength in the US dollar will the US tolerate?

In my opinion, Free Cash Flow Yield is one of the most important metrics when analyzing companies. Here’s a list of wide-moat companies with a high Free Cash Flow Yield. Not financial advice.

Japan's Debt-to-GDP ratio is 250%, and interest rates are rising. 📈 Meanwhile, Japan has the worst demographics globally—aging savers holding JGBs will need to sell as they retire. The only buyer left? The Bank of #Japan.

" Gold is Still a Long Way from Its Inflation-Adjusted Peak "

All of the Magnificent 7 stocks are in the red for 2025.

US stocks remain far pricier than the rest of the world, even after recent underperformance. 📉 Still plenty of room for convergence. 🌍📊

German Stocks vs. Magnificent 7: 3 months that reshaped the investment world.

Quite happy with our 100% Long Only Stock Selection. Wide Moat Stocks + Momentum + Strong Fundamentals

German stocks have outperformed other European stocks since Fall 2024.

The European Aerospace & Defense sector has been outperforming its US counterpart since the Munich Security Conference.

Our Wide Moat sub-portfolio uses a Joel Greenblatt Magic Formula screen: strong moats, high ROIC, and solid earnings yield. 📈🔍 #Stocks Not Financial Advice

VERDAD rolls out its tactical portfolio: Overweight international equities & #Gold. 🚀📈

Quick reversal of U.S. outperformance since the start of 2025.

Rising yields and a falling Nasdaq—historically, a signal of major market weakness. According to BofA, this pattern has preceded past downturns. Is something big ahead? Chart: BofA via Andrew Sarna

We buy high-quality #stocks like Berkshire & WalMart when they’re cheap and starting an uptrend. Ride the trend and let your winners run. Simple, but powerful 📈🔥 Not Financial Advice

If a 7% dip already has people panicking, imagine the chaos if the S&P 500 reverts to its long-term averages. On a price-to-sales basis, that would mean a 32% drop. Buckle up. 🚨📉 #SP500

Still holding significant USD short positions but beginning to take profits across various pairs.

German government bonds are plunging as the incoming coalition plans a massive debt increase for military buildup and infrastructure renewal.

Since Election Day, the S&P 500 has been underperforming the rest of the world.

It's becoming increasingly difficult for Nvdia to surprise the markets. #Nvidia

When will small-cap underperformance finally end?

$NVDA continues to maintain exceptionally high profit margins. When can we expect competitors to catch up and drive those margins down?

Adding $NRG and $EQH to the "Buy the Dip Portfolio" today.

Will the dramatic outperformance of European stocks since the beginning of 2025 come to an end now that the U.S. President has imposed 25% tariffs?

While crypto crumbles, a 94-year-old man and his stocks hit all-time highs. Long live Warren Buffett. 🐐 📈 $BRK

The S&P 500’s Free Cash Flow Yield is at its lowest point in two decades. Chart: Goldman Sachs via Andrew Sarna