I recognize that significant impacts from #Imelda are still possible without a direct landfall, but it's curious that the @accuweather.com track makes landfall while the NHC forecast keeps the storm offshore. Your annual reminder to trust the experts at NHC & NWS.

Fun with data: In the last 24 hours, the NYS Mesonet's Schaghticoke station has had 3.51" (so far, most in NY). That's just .1" shy of a 24-hour record at that site. In the 90 days *before* this period, they were the driest station in the whole state, with 4.1" (in east-central NY). #nywx

With #Humberto and future-#Imelda in such close proximity, their future track and strength should be considered more uncertain than normal. There's a million crazy options (some below - don't take them literally!), but of them, basically none of them give NY any rain. 😥

It's been very dry since June, with all but one @nysmesonet.org stations being below-average for precipitation in the last 90 days - and some almost 8" below expectations. Column soil moisture values are near the 1st percentile for most stations, with frequent recent dry soil station records. #nywx

The Kimmel news isn't surprising. Near the start of his presidency, Trump functionally solicited a bribe from ABC under the auspices of inaccurate reporting. ABC gave him $15M. Check out the below, and then consider the above in concert with today's news. Bullies don't take your lunch money once.

The worst thing about this (to me) is the oxygen this takes up, at the expense of more tragic events like school shootings (today even!) and other innocent children/victims. I thought this Yankees tweet was fake, but it isn't. The extra embarrassing thing is that Kirk clearly hated the Yankees.

It’s not simply important to denounce political violence because it looks bad not to. It’s the right thing to do on the merits. Even more specifically to this moment it’s important because the forces of fascism are inherently better at political violence than the forces of civic democracy.

Remarkable how far our once-most trusted news outlets have fallen. The implication is what? That someone forged Trump's signature (while doing a great job), for reasons unknown? The thing where journalists continue to pretend to believe the world's foremost liar is literally killing this country.

Once Donald Trump gets the citizens of this nation comfortable with the current atrocities committed under the color of law – what comes next?

This is a hilarious article title. Sure, Jan.

Is it dusty in here? 🥹 While many are going back to school, our center's first "microcredential" course ended today with 14 graduates. Over the course of four Wednesdays, these emergency managers learned about the weather as well as weather communication strategies. They grow up so fast!

Milwaukee Brewers appreciation post: They've won 13 in a row, to go along with prior 12 and 8 game win streaks. In this win, they came back from down 8-1 against a good Cincy team. They're 6.5 games up on the next best MLB team while also playing in the toughest division. Hell yeah.

Forecast: verified! ✅ It's noon and right on cue there's a pseudo-stationary cell in east-central Albany county out ahead of the main line of storms. Meteorology is cool. (Though I didn't use the HRRR's forecast time verbatim - historical knowledge let me know the HRRR would be late to initiation)

There's a very clear signal in models like the HRRR for some Mohawk-Hudson Convergence induced thunderstorm development. In this animation of five consecutive HRRR forecasts valid at 1PM, notice how a theoretical storm is "stuck" in eastern Albany county, where winds converge. 🌩️ around noon! #nywx

Beautiful day at Governors Island today, with a nice view of Manhattan.

A cybertruck spotted in its native ecosystem.

This has been a *long* time in the making. What started as an idea for teaching utilities how to make weather forecasts morphed into teaching state EMs about meteorology. Thankfully, @albany.edu provides a credentialing system for non-students once a course is approved.

Firing the messenger on jobs numbers when they are unfavorable is classic authoritarian stuff. This was the official confirmed by the *Republican* senate this January. There's no reason to believe further jobs reports from this administration. www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/b...

Nick Bassill moves to repeal scientific finding that says a diet of chicken wings, pizza, and ice cream is bad for my health. Whew, glad I solved that problem!

Fun with numbers: Over the last 30 days, the Albany area is well below average in terms of precipitation: over 3" below normal (left). But over the last 90 days (including the above), the Albany area is over 3" *above* normal. If that's all you knew, you might wonder why the grass is brown. #nywx

Well that's certainly not a good sign. Two high-ranking NOAA personnel were placed on leave in advance of Neil Jacobs' vote in the senate to head NOAA. These two led the investigation into sharpiegate, which involved Neil. Read: www.cnn.com/2025/07/25/w...

The #Brewers just swept the season series with the #Dodgers (6-0), have a 10 game win streak, and are tied for the best record in baseball. The Dodgers had more salary on their injured list than the Brewers had in total salary.

The lone storms that developed in Albany County were likely aided by "summer" Mohawk-Hudson convergence, where wind gets channeled northward in the Hudson Valley and eastward in the Mohawk Valley, converging near Albany - seen via the persistent green/blue blob in the animation. #nywx

Heavy rain can be *extremely* localized. There's a tiny stationary storm this morning in southern Queens (left). A @nysmesonet.org operated station sitting under it has received .78" in about 30 minutes, while places just a mile away have had virtually no rain (right). #nywx #nycwx

The @nysmesonet.org's Brewster station (in southeast NY, very close to the CT border) recently reported over 2" of rain in just 30 minutes. Previously, its record *one hour* rainfall total was 1.72". With additional storms to the west, it's easy to see why there is a flood risk in southeast NY.

Awful that yet again a potential heavy rainfall event is setting up with such similar conditions: -potential overnight peak -somewhat rapid amplification of threat over preceding 24 hours -occuring on non-standard worknight when fewer people pay attention -approximately same geographic area #txwx

My Center (the @nyswrcc.bsky.social) hosted Governor Hochul and state Emergency Management Commissioner Bray today to discuss how we can better support the state in the wake of the TX floods, with the goal of learning the proper lessons. New experience for me: speaking alongside them at a presser!

Glad I took the opportunity to talk to the NY Post. This is a pretty reasonable article, all things considered. (And Bluesky lacks the sort of crazy replies as Twitter!)

People are asking these obvious questions. My answer would be: these things are hard to predict and likely would have unfolded *without* cuts to NWS. BUT! If we agree we want to do better, you'd make sure NOAA labs that develop our modeling remain funded. Trump proposes huge cuts to those labs.

This is just so embarrassing, and an indictment on the people passing this horrendous bill. Some republican holdouts changed their mind ... because Trump gave them a signed hat. Incredible.

Republicans know this bill is toxic, but don't care. This is performative stuff so that they can say they're conflicted. Such "left-wing" groups like Elon Musk, the Chamber of Commerce, Catholic church, (etc) oppose the bill alongside the vast majority of Americans. It transfers wealth to the rich.

Democrats have had *three* house members die just since the 2024 election. Those votes would really come in handy right about now.

Crazy that NY leaders like @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social @kirstengillibrand.bsky.social, & @schumer.senate.gov are spending literally any energy doing anything but supporting the Dem primary winner of a city with half their state's population while Republicans are advancing a horrendous bill. Gross.

If you're wondering where we are on our journey to full-on authoritarianism, we're at the "highest court says it's not their job to enforce a president's lawbreaking" mile marker. Meanwhile, half of the opposition party is currently concerned about Mamdani winning the NYC primary. We're so boned.

Here's my new favorite one. Former NY Governor Paterson *in an NYT April article about how some people are hypocrites for endorsing Cuomo* compares him to Trump (left). Then, *just 13 days before the election*, Paterson endorses Cuomo. For some politicians, dignity is extremely flammable.

Amazing that Democrats like Bill Clinton & Rep. Clyburn, plus a long string of people & organizations who called Cuomo unfit for office during his sexual harassment scandal, would all have endorsed him for mayor. For what? Tonight they torched their credibility for nothing. That's not leadership.

So weird when interests collide, but it's *extremely* on brand for Yglesias to neither cite the data he's using nor describe what it's depicting. (It's Heat Index from the NYS Mesonet.)

Another way to look at the heat in #NYC is seeing how many hours of the past day have had a heat index >90F. Astute observers will note that there are only 24 hours in a day. 😬 To paraphrase a great orator, it's been one of the hottest nights we've ever seen from the standpoint of heat.

While hot temperatures affected all of NY on Monday, urban areas such as #NYC are feeling the brunt of the heatwave tonight. At midnight, most of NYC feels like its warmer than 90F while some locations even feel like 100F. Do whatever you can to stay cool tonight! Tomorrow will be hot once again.

I have so many questions:

The NYS Mesonet's Ticonderoga site recently had a reading of 93.1/80.7, which worked out to a heat index of 113.7F. This breaks the all-time network record of 111.3F recorded at the Dover Plains site several years ago. There's a *lot* of afternoon ahead of us, so lots of records may fall. #nywx

Never change, NAM 3km.

Today could be a good candidate for summertime Mohawk-Hudson Convergence. Southwesterly winds can get funneled south->north in the Hudson and west->east in the Mohawk, leading to convergence where they meet. Helpfully, that area is also a local max in temp+moisture too. #nywx

Looks like we're getting a head start. In all seriousness, if forecasts are anywhere close to accurate, parts of NY will be in an Extreme Heat Warning for the first time in over a year. (This warning was recently renamed, but it works the same).

I'm calling for an exponential increase in instances of "It's called summer!" replies across social media, beginning this weekend and continuing into next week.

A few notes on the extreme heat forecast next week: 1) In my experience, models *overforecast* temps, BUT 2) Often because they over-mix, so higher dewpoints mean the heat index is about the same 3) There's remarkable ensemble agreement for 1+ week out - four ensemble means for next Tuesday at 2PM:

Father's Day story: my dad worked in construction his whole life, and therefore basically listened only to talk radio. He would call himself an independent, but was really quite conservative. He retired, moved to Arizona, and defied convention by becoming liberal. He even protested yesterday!

Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated last night, was the Speaker of the Minnesota House in the 2023-2024 session, when Democrats ran the state government. That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.

And this makes fiscal sense how? Autocratic leaders scared a Home Depot day laborer might be not paying taxes so we'll spend hundreds of millions on the response? Their principle has always been control and fear in the pursuit of dominance, not fiscal or social health. No part of this is positive.

Yesterday was an active weather day across western and central NY, with numerous active weather warnings and severe weather reports. Here's a summary of the activity from yesterday, though this may change as NWS teams inspect damage or gather additional reports.