NEW PAPER We developed a statistical model to forecast dengue cases for the next season using the history of cases only. We suggest using the posterior predictive to define epidemics bands. For instance, we could see how huge was 2024 dengue season in Brazil. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

📢 NEW PAPER! In response to 2024 dengue epidemic we built Dengue-tracker 🦟📈 to improve nowcasts in Brazil by combining surveillance data + Google Trends 🔗 diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-tracker 📄 doi.org/10.1371/jour... 🙌 With Guilherme Soares,Rafael Izbicki,Yang Xiao&@leosbastos.bsky.social

I usually don't like pictures of myself, but I like this one.

When Thomas Bayes meets John Snow. Presented in Vitória, capital of Espírito Santo state, at the 69th RBRAS meeting and 21st SEAGRO

The #JSM2025 is about to start, the JSM is by far the biggest stats conference I've attended. I went to Miami Beach and Boston, it was a great experience. But nowadays I prefer relatively smaller conferences and outside the US (my visa expired and I am not keen to pass through the application again)

In two weeks, I will be a keynote speaker in a national stats conference. I am quite happy about that but also very nervous. I will talk about Bayesian learning on infectious disease surveillance, so it is time to start preparing my talk (and finish it 10 minutes before the actual conference... 😅)

Can you imagine if last year the Brazilian visa were revoked from the NY judge and the jury members (and their families) after Trump being convicted of crimes? Super weird, isn't it? Well, it seems the opposite is OK for some... www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Trump will soon add new tariffs for all countries to guarantee global security like Italian mafia or Brazilian militia does on their territories (you can name your "favourite" group/organisation/gang/whatever that charges others to guarantee their security)

I am quite surprised and impressed by Chelsea's result at the final against PSG. But the match I am interested in today is from another blue jersey team at the Brasileirão 🦊😅😬 Cruzeiro X Grêmio

Many thanks @leosbastos.bsky.social and everyone at Fiocruz for the warm welcome! I really enjoyed hearing about all the exciting work happening here and visiting the beautiful Rio de Janeiro! 💚💛💙 #rstats #GISchat #diseasesurveillance

It is a bit frustrating knowing that the 2028 ISBA World meeting will be in the US (Milwaukee). Nothing against the venue itself, but to have to pass through the annoying Visa process a Brazilian has to do. It may be convenient for most Bayesians, but it is not for me.

We had a very special visitor today, @paulamoraga.bsky.social gave us a great lecturer on Spatial data science in R. Thanks Paula!

The manuscript "Duration of COVID-19 symptoms in children: a longitudinal study in a Rio de Janeiro favela, Brazil" was recently accepted in the BMJ Open. I am one of the authors and, once published, it will be my 100th peer reviewed paper. A meaningless academic milestone, a cool number though.

Europeans: we don't really care about the FIFA world club... Dude, my team is not even there and I am watching the games even supporting some clubs (the weaker ones which maybe are no longer the Brazilian ones...)

As well as interesting data, nice piece of data viz to have outlier line stretch beyond y axis…

The Fiocruz main campus is at Av. Brasil. I feel sad to see it called "avenue of Death" but it is true... 😥 www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...

Save the dates and come to Rio to talk about Data Science in Public Heath, epidemiological surveillance and the impacts of the climate change. fiocruz.tghn.org/news/e-surve...

Today (25/5) is Fiocruz 125th year anniversary, instead of the iconic castle picture (which turns out I have no one in my phone) I post a picture of the cell from the Life's museum which is part of the Fiocruz campus in Manguinhos and I place I often take my kids to play around there.

Our (@leosbastos.bsky.social‬ and I) comment about dengue risk is highlighted in the cover and the cover itself!!! Link to our comment: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

It is kind of interesting that the new Pope's name in English is Leo. In Portuguese, the Pope's name is "Papa Leão" (which I would firstly translate to Pope Lion, but that sounds very odd and made me Google it).

Dengue in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Compared to last year, this year doesn't look that bad. But...

I love the Fibonacci sequence here.

I find it amazing whenever I see a western person speaking Chinese, Japanese or Korean. It is quite something. It seems less impressive the other way round (it shouldn't though it is huge effort) because I am used to seeing a lot of Japanese descendents speaking Portuguese here in Brazil.

Quick update on notification delay correction (nowcast) of measles cases in the US after the new update from the CDC website. The number of cases are still going up.

I gave this interview (in Portuguese) talking about dengue data in Brazil, nowcasting, infodengue, etc. Thanks for the opportunity and I hope it helps other people willing to play around with dengue data in Brazil.

Since the CDC was updating the time series of number of reported measles cases in their website I decided to try out the delay-correction because the big drop in the time series is just reporting delaying. (It is a well-know problem in epidemiological surveillance)

Rafa is a great collaborator, super clever and funny.

On the verge: outbreak risk after two years of record-breaking dengue epidemics in Brazil - The Lancet Regional Health – Americas www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

1. For the past thirty years I've had the best job in the world. 
I've had the opportunity to follow my curiosity; explore the workings of nature and society; mentor students and junior colleagues in the same process; and teach generations of students about it all.

#Australia🇦🇺: #JapaneseEncephalitis #virus detected in #Brisbane for the first time, triggering health warnings 🦟 www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03...

I am worried about the increase of measles cases in the US and obviously how/when this could spread here in Brazil. An imported case could lead to an outbreak since vaccine hesitation here may have reduced the coverage that used to be very high.

I would love to watch I'm still here, the only "movies" I am able to watch are related to Paw patrol, Pepa and if I am on a very lucky day a Disney movie...😂😅😭

I would like to express my gratitude to Dr @nisiatrindadelima.bsky.social on her great work as the first woman to be the Ministry of Health in Brazil. Unfortunately after two years, she was asked by the president to leave the office.

Great news! www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...

Here in Rio is scorching hot. Yesterday's temperatures hit 44C and today is coller "only" 41C... I wonder how bad it will be living here in 10-20 years from now. 🥵 www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...

While putting the kids to sleep it seems Shakira is testing* the sound in the Stadium for her gig on the 11th. * I can hear her voice but it might be a recording.

If you somehow found my profile, I usually post/complain about: - Statistics (I am Bayesian with a preference for fast methods like INLA) - Epidemiology (Infectious diseases epidemiology, outbreak surveillance, climate-sensitive diseases) - Politics (I consider myself a progressist) - Brazil 🇧🇷

This is quite sad to read. I was born and raised in a poor neighborhood in Belo Horizonte and in most of the families there is someone who illegally migrated to the US. A cousin, a father, a mother who thought they could provide a better life to their family.

We had a small sample of the implications of a Trump-like person on power here in Brazil (data hiding during the pandemic). My guess is that Bolsonaro didn't destroy as much as he could simply because he didn't know what to do... Now his side can copy (and adapt) whatever Trump is doing in the US.

And as COVID, it could easily spread to other countries.

Bayes Comp 2025 will take place at the National University of Singapore June 16-20, 2025. Registration is now open, and you are invited to submit abstracts for posters and contributed talks (dl Feb. 17). Register by March 15 for early bird rates. More details here: #Bayesian #ISBA bayescomp2025.sg

Our @deeplab.bsky.social is leaving X for good. So please help us grow our network here! We are a research lab investigating digital economy and extreme politics

Looking for a position - postdoc, PhD, faculty - in infectious disease dynamics (broadly defined)? Follow @iddjobs.bsky.social and check IDDjobs.org This is a community site started in 2017 for open positions in our wide and varied field. Add your jobs, look for jobs, share opportunities!

A study in blood donors in Rio. We found blood bags infected with HAV and parvovirus B19. Then we estimated the incidence and risk of transmission by blood transfusion. Full paper here: virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

¡Un duro golpe a la salud pública global! El presidente Trump firma un decreto para retirar a EE. UU. de la OMS www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

That is a "great" start (not a surprising one though) - Fascist style salute from an important supporter - withdraw US from the WHO - withdraw US from the Paris agreement on Climate

In Brazil, the main printed journals (Folha de São Paulo and O Globo) also avoid naming the fascist style salute.

The formatting says it all.

This year there is a quite nice conference on infectious disease dynamics, but unfortunately it is in the US. Unfortunately because my US visa has expired and I won't apply for a new one. It is a too annoying process that I prefer waiting for the next conference. www.elsevier.com/events/confe...