67° at Noon on Jan 4th? Yeah, I’ll get the bike out and do a 13 mile ride to get my mind off all the…stuff..going on in the world & U.S. Only snow to be seen is on the higher peaks of the Front Range, nothing down here in the lower elevations 😞

The best forecasts for #Vietnam and HCMC are from ensembles; deterministic outputs are all over the place as shown by Apple Wx vs Rain Viewer vs OpenSnow (ECMWF ens). Day of, nowcasting is definitely the way to go as short-range models are over the place and watching radar reigns supreme.

#vietnam street food, seafood edition. Bourdain was right, you’ve got to risk eating at the places that look seedy, that you normally would not, to get the true experience and flavors of any country.

Northern-style Bún Chả at Quan Nem which is slightly different from the southern #Vietnam style we tried last time. You may know it from when Bourdain and Obama dined in Hanoi in 2016. We may not be in Hanoi but it was REALLY good! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bun_cha

Our office's first "Particularly Dangerous Situation" RFW was issued today, unfortunately. Goal here isn't fear, but widespread awareness and preparedness. Wildfire risk management requires a collective approach across all facets of society. Without it, these types of days are much more dangerous.

Lego X-Wing completed in 2 hours at Click Clack Café, Thao Dien, #HCMC #Vietnam. Cool spot with over 75 sets to choose from ranging from less than 30 minutes to multiple day (i.e. Shuttle Discovery). Also have free build area with bins of Legos for creative types.

Pasteur Street Barrel Aged Stout (13% ABV) and a burger on a nice night in #HCMC #Vietnam . Having family here helps in finding the good spots but I still say Vietnam is an amazing country to visit with a bit of planning and advice. And the food from restaurants to street stalls…chefs kiss. 🤤

Went to historic Saigon Central Post Office. Super polite lady asked multiple times what I was sending. “Post cards” “Is that all?” “Yes, just post cards” “Anything other than cards?” “No, just post cards 🤨” “Many you don’t realize how hard & expensive is sending goods to US now. Cards OK.” 😞😡

I like good club sodas or soda water. This is a bit…spicy…with quite a bit more carbonation than what I’m used to. But, it hits the spot after a night of Tigers, 333s, and grilling with friends and family. #vietnam #imported

Back in one of our favorite places. Fighting a bit of a travel cold but not enough of one to keep us from phờ and finding a bar with local brew Belgium-style beers…

So frustrating when contracted snow plow is supposed to come with 4"+ in the morning. Doesn't show so I shovel off said 4" in the alley just in case I need to get the Jeep out. Plow show up at 3 pm & leave a berm of snow blocking my garage. Oh, and up to 9" of snowfall and 6" depth. #cowx

A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz

Whomever does call signs for the USAF is on point so much of the time. And I think these are very appropriate for B-52s; “takes a lickin’ and keeps on ticking” 🤣 #adsb #avgeek #USAF

Playing with dynamical.org data in zarr format online (which is SUPER fast compared to downloading raw GEFS grib2 and converting locally. Why can't NWS do this???) Anyway, looking like Thanksgiving could be a bit chilly around these parts...all GEFS members 1st plot and quantiles/median second plot

Substorm has died down but for about 20 minutes there, wow. 1st pic is 3 sec iPhone exposure. Second is “regular” auto settings and pretty close to what we could see with MK I Eyeballs. #aurora #cowx

So much for going to bed tonight… #aurora #cowx

And of course as I’m closing the blinds to try and go to sleep…nope! Faint green #aurora arc now showing up. #cowx

#Aurora pretty much gone here from DEN metro. So was this the initial X1 CME hit or did the X5 CME catch up and surprise us all? Guess I’ll have to set an hourly alarm to look out the window to make sure there aren’t any more substorms tonight and swing by SWPC tomorrow morning for insight. #cowx

iPhone 16. 3 second exposure from north side of Denver. #aurora #cowx

Cruddy screenshot from my Cloud AWIPS system but in my 30+ years of meteorology experience, the data coming out of #Melissa is nothing short of incredible, and deeply saddening. Jamaica will be in rough shape after this for a long time to come…

Enderlin, ND tor #1 from 20 June 2025 upgraded to EF-5. A good reminder that 1) post-event analyses take time & 2) external expert opinion is invaluable. Having been on EF-5 surveys, seemingly small details can make big difference (i.e. tree damage) mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...

Winter is coming (but taking a hiatus for the next week according to the ensembles). Snow on the Front Range peaks, but not on the Flatirons. #cowx #snowseason (full disclosure; Apple AI helped remove cars on US 36; stop & go traffic on Davidson Mesa brought you this pic)

First dusting of snow on the Front Range? Or hail from the storms last night? Either way, winter is coming and I’m ready for it! #cowx

Folks around McCook, Nebraska are going to have a free ice cold swimming pool; storm and occasional supercell parked just north of the surface frontal boundary dropping 3” hail and radar estimates pushing 4” of rain… #newx

It’s hard to see but that is an Extreme Forecast Index of 0.5 off the coast of SoCal late week. The black lines are Shift of Tails…of over 8 (contour maxes out at 8). NWS EFI/SoT (firewalled) shows greater than 10 SoT! 😳 Chance for extreme precip is medium but could be extreme w/ high SoT values!

Interesting sky this morning heading into work. We’re almost to the right time of year when I’ll be heading out when there will be more colors (you know, to avoid the morning CU BOU student rush hour to get there just in time for their first class). #cowx

Great morning to make the bike ride on Big Dry Creek trail from City Park to Standley Lake. Some spots felt in the 40s along creek drainage which was great until I climbed out the last 1.5 miles up to the lake. That was a bit warm in full sun & out of the cold air drainage. 12.72 mi round trip

Xcel Energy is changing TOU rate structure in October. Gone is Mid-Peak 1-3pm and Peak moves from 3-7pm to 5-9pm. So as a good data scientist does, spent the last 2 hours in Python with my 2024 hourly net metering data & found out that my change in cost would have been...$2.18. For the year.

Post-frontal airmass pushing up against the Flatirons and 68°. So nice… #cowx

Yeah, it’s the 95th Percentile from NBM V5.0 and 10 days out…but it is still a chance for snow! #winteriscoming #wishcasting

Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF IFS) still outperform AI weather models in forecasting record-breaking hot and cold extremes and unseen wind extremes Preprint arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724 with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke

The HRRR smoke forecasts were bad on the 00Z and 12Z runs; smoke settled into Vail Valley so we “cheated” and drove up to the Shrine Pass lot. Made it up to 11.9 kft today and it was worth it; smoke was not bad above the inversion, it was cool, & the last of the wildflowers were in bloom. #colorado

Much needed nature therapy today. Gore Creek Trail… #colorado

Once again, my #ADSB station showing why it's risk flying into DEN on a summer afternoon. Ground stop for departing flights, multiple racetrack hold patterns, & several diverts likely due to fuel or unable to wait to get into DEN. #avgeek #cowx

So many takes (good & bad) on the TX Hill Country flooding. Having spent a large part of my life in the heart of Hill Country, difference of 5 miles or less can mean soaking rain or flash flood. Look at hydromet.lcra.org precip & stream flow; you can see what I mean (basins are shaded in these maps)

"Questioning is the way of learning," Encourage your children to ask questions, not to accept existing answers.

Nice being able to watch a storm from multiple sources while enjoying the cool outflow and almost constant slow rumble of thunder #cowx

A 300x timelapse from my neighbor; “You study clouds, what is this stuff before sunrise? We saw it when we went to let (dog’s name) out…” Sure looks like noctilucent clouds to me! #cowx #noctilucent

Another good case for why Composite Reflectivity is useful out here up against the Front Range. Could hear grit hitting windows & rattling in the frame as microburst from ample virga is taking place. Mesa Lab showing gusts to 30 mph but wouldn’t be surprised if higher gusts possible in other areas.

Once again, right conditions come together to result in catastrophic flash flooding across portions of the wrn Texas Hill Country. I'm 6th gen from down there; the "old timers" would talk about floods that would come out of nowhere uprooting trees along normally dry banks. This is no exception...

Been busy with some things & slacking on food posts from #Vietnam. Today was the best donuts I’ve had here, always delightful Bạc Xỉu coffee, and Bún Chả - bacon, pork patties in a sweet fish sauce with rice noodles and veggies. So stuffed!!

This is how some restaurants make the best phở in Vietnam; broth that has been simmering for months and in one place supposedly years. I'm still around after first having it in 2019 with no ill effects...and it was delicious.

First intense downpour (luckily while under cover) in #Vietnam where it’s 55-60 dBZ. Second pic you can just make outline of a building 2 blocks away. Been dumping for 15 minutes & just now heard 1st rumble of thunder. Meteorology in SE Asia is so fascinating, wish I had a rain gage here!

You know dinner in #Vietnam will be amazing when you turn down a side alley in old town Hoi An and your knees are higher than the table when you sit down in your chair. Lan Thai; yes, we had Thai to see if it was worthy of the 4.9 ⭐️ rating. It is!

TIL that #vietnam is a top 10 producer of avocados in the world (#8 as of 2022). We sampled a Dak Lak variety yesterday right off the tree & it has a hint of sweetness. So good on a toasted bánh mì baguette by itself. Would be interesting to make guac with the sweet component…

Welp, guess I'll have to dust off #typhoon forecasting skills in the W Pacific now that there is an invest & KWAJEX was ages ago. Relying on tropicaltidbits.com , JTWC, & eventually #Tropycal to work on my own scripts in #python. For now looks like no impacts to #Vietnam but will have to watch!

Kinda glad we don’t have our house in #Lubbock any longer. Track of the storm would have put us in the large hail again but I do feel for all my friends. Insurance will only go up again after this. Also glad this one didn’t have the tor come through town…

Vietnamese white coffee; like a coffee milkshake but not as thick and not as sweet but better. Plus fresh watermelon and rambutan; a gift after visiting with the owner of a local mom & pop breakfast spot a couple blocks from our apartment. On our third visit. Yes, it’s that good! #vietnam #AnBang

First “summer” thunderstorm since we’ve been in #Vietnam. Even though the CG was almost 10km away & relatively not all that powerful, thunder was deep enough it shook the couch I’m on & easily lasted 20 seconds. Also interesting because it is a warm rain, only cooled us down to 82°/77°F…

Another great meal in An Bàng this evening courtesy of SERENA restaurant. These (grilled turmeric pork, sautéed morning glory, fried spring rolls), two other main dishes, a bottled water, and two Cokes: 585,000 Vietnamese Đồng. That’s $22.82, it’s all fresh cooked, and the flavors are so amazing.