All over the world, governments have taken to branding everything they don't like as 'terrorist' because most of the legal restraints come off in the pursuit of 'counter-terrorism'. It's the sad, long term consequence of US stupidity after 9/11 in 2001 in creating a 'war on terror'. They all do it.

Most Russian refineries produce a range of oil products, including both gasoline and diesel, so in theory the Russians could run short of diesel, BUT the gasoline domestic market is much greater and more complex so is affected first. And even if diesel were short, the military will still get it.

Yes. 30 a month at present, but hoping to move to 200 a month by the end of the year and then many more after that. BUT, they still need more western components, more cash for expansion, and need to disperse the production centres to protect them from Russian attacks.

If only.......

At least one aspect of Russian barbarity - and this is open and shut genocidal policy - seems to be getting through to the US mainstream. Though I doubt it will make any difference to White House thinking.

All discussions about a Ukraine peace deal and western 'reassurance forces' etc are gesture politics ahead of Trump's failure to close a deal. The European intention is to stay close to US while it zig-zags out of the war, because it matters to future fighting who Trump will blame for his failure.

Interesting that this man was a 100% MAGA sceptic about Ukraine a few months ago. But to his credit, he has investigated the reality of the war and had the honesty to change his opinion on it. Whether it influences Trump is, of course, another matter.

Day 261 of #GeorgiaProtests Today, protesters are having a Ukrainian march in support of Ukraine at the Alaska talks. Georgian, Ukrainian, and American flags are seen. "Victory to Ukraine! Victory to Georgia! Down with Russia's rotten Empire!"

Seems like soon the regime will begin jailing CSO representatives. By the way, where's all that financial aid promised to them by the EU?..

That's the general idea. Another Trump 'deadline' passes with his fierce threats replaced yet again by another huge diplomatic win, presented on a plate, to Putin. The Russians can hardly believe their luck having such a massive man-child in the White House just now.

If I were a more cynical person I might have thought that Trump's nonsensical nuclear submarine announcement served to distract attention from something else - like labour statistics, or Epstein files. Here is the non-event explained. www.thetimes.com/article/69bc...

GAZA And if you are also wondering about 'collective punishment' - that is also illegal under Art 33 of the 4th Geneva Convention (1949) and its Additional Protocol I (1977) Art 75(2)(d) & Additional Protocol II (1977) Art 4(2)(b). Also in Hague Regulation (1907), Art 50. Also in ICC Articles 7 & 8.

GAZA In case you were wondering, the legal provision against the forceable transfer of a population is in 4th Geneva Convention (1949) Art. 49. Also in Customary Human Rights Law, Rule 129(A) and 130. Also in International Criminal Court Statutes (1998), Art 7(1)(d) and Art 8(2)(e)(vii). Choose any.

US says the tariffs deal with China guarantees that critical magnets will still be available after rare earths agreement. White House suddenly found that China can coerce them more effectively with rare earths than they can coerce China with tariffs. An interesting lesson for the Trump world view.

The NATO Summit is a Trump-fest; a massive damage limitation exercise aiming to keep him in the room for long enough to hear what they all have to say about meeting (eventually / maybe / sort of) a 5%GDP defence spending pledge. Only item on the agenda, in effect.

Was up on Rustavili Ave yesterday. Congratulation to all of you who are keeping this flame alive amid constant arrests and repression. I know a good proportion of the population support what you are doing, even if they are not on Rustaveli Ave every night - (they have families to protect etc.)

No wonder satire is dying - you just can't make anything up that's more absurd than these chatacters' reality bubbles. (I'm assuming this is not a fake or a manipulated exchange, but then Lutnick IS like this.)

People keep asking me when my 2024 book will be re-issued after first printing. It is available now from Pen & Sword or on Amazon at a discounted £22.63. I am currently writing a follow-up, provisionally titled 'British Women of Command'.

The ridiculous Tulsi Gabbard (Trump's Dir Nat Intell) told Senate this week US intell "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” Like Trump, she lives in her own reality. Amazing.

Gaza. I've been arguing endlessly that 'genocide' charges against the IDF don't meet the necessarily high thresholdld for that charge. Lord Sumption tonight put it exactly right, I think - that since 16 May Israeli tactics and statements are pushing up to that threshold - they're getting close. Yes.

Istanbul summit. The one, pre-agreed, outcome was a big exchange of 1000 PoWs. There have been 'over 50' PoW exchanges so far, but the precise number is not known outside official circles.

Read out from 90 min Istanbul talks: Ru wouldn't allow US rep into the room; then Medinsky resumed his 2022 line - you must withdraw from all 4 oblasts (which Ru not conquered yet), and if you delay, next time it will be 5, then 8 oblasts. No negotiation, just threats. A wonder it lasted 90 mins.

Yep. Looks that way.

I think this is the clearest indication of Trump's direction of travel now. He is preparing to move on, leave it, and blame Ukraine & Europeans for failure. War goes on. Q of when US pulls intell help, then Starlink. Partnership with Ru blossoms, bigger transatlantic parting of the ways during 2025.

👇

Still working to make out whether this is the tip of a new iceberg, or just individual mercenary activity - (doesn't look like it so far )

Sure. I agree with your interpretation. Dictatorships and autocracies get away with dreadful things perpetrated on their own people, but the final straw is often a lesser something, eg. a particular scandal, or govt incompetence in one case, and the ball of widespread public anger starts rolling.

Greenland. Trump's strategic reasoning on Greenland is all essentially sound. And the US can have what it wants as things stand, at little extra cost, in a win, win, win for all sides. But if his reasoning is strategic, his current demands on Greenland are just imperial grandeur, pure and simple.

I count about 10 brave men strongarming 3 defenceless young women, one of whom has committed the crime of carrying a banner.... More or less exemplifies the moral and physical courage of the Putinesque GD government.

Georgian opposition movement looking like another casualty of the spreading wave of dictatorship / authoritarianism moving across south eastern Europe. GD, like Erdogan, Orban and FICO all tough it out with more violent repression.. till it eventually blows up, often on a comparatively minor issue.

As analysts, most of us held off on US negotiations with Ru over Ukraine so as not to dismiss them out of hand. So we watched, sceptically, hopefully. It's clear now they are being made to look like complete fools by the Russians, as we always feared they would. Just hopeless...so easily suckered.

Irony apart, my assumption is that these evidently able property gurus are actually out of their depth when they are pitched into global politics, no preps, especially with the Russians. There are generations of European diplomats who've spent their lives dealing with Russians. It's never simple.

Maybe he should read a book - almost any book, really - on Russian history. Then get someone to give him extracts from Putin's writings and speeches over the last 15 years.

Just as a matter of technical interest, it would be possible for UK Trident missiles to deliver a pretty small nuclear explosive of 2 or 3 kts using an unboosted primary warhead (tnough other downsides to that) or not so hard to go back to 1998 status, delivering tactical nuclear bombs by aircraft.

Most analysts accept that once any nuclear device is used, by anyone, then all bets are off for what might happen next. We can theorise all we like but the fact is, as Freedman says, 'nuclear deterrence works better in practice than theory'.

This Union flag is upside down. That is a distress signal. Is the image trying to convey a deeper message? Who created this image?

Putin's in no position to say 'no' to the US truce plan, but he will certainly be saying 'yes, but' to string out the opening discussions and enter a 'conditions contest' with Kyiv to put pressure back on them. A lot will hinge on US patience/skill in handling Russia's standard negotiating tactic.

Russian nuclear use against Eur countries is still a very low probability, not least because British and French nuclear forces still exist and consideration is being revived of technical ways tp extend those two forces to cover other Eur allies. Shouldn't be complacent, but no need for alarm.

A piece for the Sunday Times on where Hamas and the IDF now stand in relation to each other. www.thetimes.com/article/3774...

Some 19,000 Ukrainian children are recorded as being taken from their families by the Russians. Amid a plethora of daily war crimes, this is the one that got Putin personally indicted for war crimes by the ICC, as it could be pinned directly on him - his orders.

DAY 100 of continuous protests in Georgia! The crisis will only get worse without new, free and fair elections, and the release of the regime prisoners. I came rather late, regretfully, and many were already leaving. #GeorgiaProtests

The Georgian Dream has been trying to make Georgia more dependent on Iran and China, in addition to Russia, because when they would inevitably turn away from the West and crack down on any dissent, they needed as little economic blow as possible. Here's more details on Iran.

Have said it lots of times, but worth repeating the latest figures. And the US Commerce Dept has just published the official US trade figures for 2024 which show that his claims of trade deficits with China, Canada, Mexico and the EU are comically wrong - mostly 2x, 3x and 4x greater than the facts.

The consequences of the US stopping intelligence sharing with Ukraine, as one Russian newspaper sees them: “Now we have a higher chance of finding the enemy’s weak spot and striking when they’re not expecting it.” #ReadingRussiahttps

The girls fought back and now the regime police tells them to revoke their report because "the violence happened from both sides," indicating that they will be the ones jailed. #terrorinGeorgia

Interesting findings from a reputable source. Having the White House parrot the Kremlin's version of the origins of the war doesn't seem to have impressed most of the US public, so far, at least.

Logistically, this shouldn't be much of a problem. Whatever comes through Alexandroupoli can always be sent by one of several land routes as well, though its more expensive and troublesome.

I was looking at these 3 ship attacks - all probably with mines and all after they'd been at Russian ports. I can't get a fix on whether they were 'dark fleet' ships, as some vessels seem to go in and out of the dark fleet. But I've wondered whether Western Sp Forces might try this sort of thing.

Some headline thoughts on the state of play in the war on Ukraine - the implications go a long way beyond Ukraine. news.sky.com/story/a-gift...

Justin Trudeau's speech in Kyiv included an interesting detail - to give Ukraine the $5 billion in frozen Russian assets sitting in Canada. There's a big legal and banking argument about giving Kyiv the $210 billion frozen in European banks. This small move might help break the logjam.