My latest, “In a post-Maduro Venezuela, the U.S. project amounts to managed authoritarianism: continuity government, calibrated repression, and transactional compliance, with transition reduced to timetable management rather than any democratization.” warontherocks.com/2026/01/afte...

“Es difícil ver cuándo y cómo llegamos a un gobierno legítimo electo democráticamente”, asegura el profesor @perez1oj.bsky.social de la Universidad del Norte de Texas. ¿Cuál es la situación actual de Venezuela? 🎧 Escucha aquí: elhilo.audio/279

¿Es la captura de Nicolás Maduro el fin de un régimen o la continuación del chavismo sin su principal figura? Esta semana analizamos con @perez1oj.bsky.social, profesor de la Universidad del Norte de Texas, el ataque militar de Estados Unidos a Venezuela y sus implicaciones. 🎧 elhilo.audio/279

I argue, "U.S. messaging right now is going in the wrong direction. Talk of “running” Venezuela is politically toxic across Latin America and strategically counterproductive inside #Venezuela." www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

President Trump shocked the nation and the world early Saturday when he announced that the U.S. had captured the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, and intended to “run the country.” Here’s what we know.

The actions in #Venezuela this morning are clear indications that the #Trump Corollary has made Latin Americans virtual spectators in the geopolitics of their region. The US is again exercising international “police” powers. The signal is clear: Latin America is “our backyard.”

I wrote for The Dallas Morning News: "Put together, the pardon and the interference tell #Hondurans something corrosive: What matters in Washington is not your rule of law, but your loyalty." www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

And Crockett’s ambition & hubris led her to fall for it! 🙄 www.notus.org/senate/jasmi...

Both Republicans & Democrats are working hard to lose the Texas Senate race. Paxton might be the only Republican who can lose the seat, but Crockett might be the only Democrat Paxton can beat! M.A.D! 🙄

1/ Democracy barely figures in the new National Security Strategy. The "#Trump Corollary" formalizes a sphere-of-influence order in the Americas, built on enforcement rather than institutions. What counts is coercive capacity and alignment. whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

Is Trump about to go to war with #Venezuela? I told the @abcnewsaustralia.bsky.social "That gap between rhetoric and reality is where bad decisions get made." Listen to the rest 👇 podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/i...

To understand why #Trump is pardoning @JuanOrlandoH, follow the $: “he turned to friends of Rubio for help … signed a deal with lobbying firm BGR Group to buttress his image as a dedicated ally and an implacable foe of organized crime.” www.vice.com/en/article/a...

So Trump is getting “tough” on drug trafficking by pardoning a convicted drug trafficker, former president of #Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández. Pardon a right-wing trafficker & topple a left-wing one, seems to be the policy! 🙄😓

I write in @dallasmorningnews.bsky.social, “If Washington wants to help #Honduras avoid the fate of its authoritarian neighbors, it must act with clarity, consistency and restraint.” None of which the Trump adminitration is known for. www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

“For all the deadly weapons floating off the coast, it seems increasingly clear that all the Trump administration’s push for regime change in #Venezuela has done so far is create a potentially disastrous political trap.” www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/o...

Regime change in #Venezuela isn’t a “weekend mission.” Any use of force has to reckon with coup-proofed security services, regional politics, and the costs of “the day after,” not just #Maduro. I unpack the military & political realities, @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...

From Nepal to Mexico City, Gen Z keeps emerging as the real opposition: organized, furious, and unwilling to treat corruption and violence as background noise. Parties can try to ride this wave, but they did not create it and may not be able to control it. www.politico.com/news/2025/11...

It seems it’s dawning on some in DC that this #Venezuela adventure is more complex & the politics more difficult than saying: Maduro=bad; Machado=good; Tomahawks=coup->💨 democracy! @POTUS wanted to blow sh*t up, get a quick win & move on.The minute things got complicated he got cold feet. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Thanks @QuincyInst @RStatecraft for publishing my piece on the risks of escalation in #Venezuela. “A wiser approach for Washington is to prioritize intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation with allies — rather than rely on … kinetic strikes.” responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-venezu...

Why Blowing Up Venezuelan Boats Won’t Stop the Flow of Drugs www.nytimes.com/interactive/... I said something similar a few weeks ago! 🤔

I wrote in The Dallas Morning News: “Turning the armed forces toward specific domestic political targets breaches a core norm: an apolitical military. Latin American history is clear. Internal security missions make generals central actors in domestic governance.” www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

Panama in China-US Strategic Competition thediplomat.com/2025/09/pana... "Suppose Panama can show that a sovereignty-first, rules-based posture unlocks U.S. and allied capital without foreclosing commercial ties to China."

Brazil Just Succeeded Where America Failed www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/o... “With all its flaws, Brazilian democracy is healthier today than America’s. Keenly aware of their country’s authoritarian past, Brazil’s judicial and political authorities did not take democracy for granted.”

more than a decade of public scholarship has taught me that the moments when it's most tempting to react strongly and quickly are the ones when it's most useful to step back, seek context, and force yourself to think slowly. i don't always follow it, but those are my guidelines for myself.

Only Trump can make John Bolton seem sympathetic! 🙄

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1/ The @deptofdefense.govmirrors.com is weighing a “Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force.” 600 Guard troops split between Alabama and Arizona, deployable in one hour. 🧵https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/

One thing that didn't make it into today's piece: Washington, DC already has by far the highest number of law enforcement officers per capita of any city of 250k+.

Claims of a DC “crime wave” ignore the facts: violent crime is down ~26% this year, homicides down 12%, robberies down 28%. 2025 is on track for some of the lowest levels in decades. Fear sells—facts don’t! www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/i...

The ghosts of Gaitán (1948), Galán (1989), and Gómez Hurtado (1995) still haunt #Colombia’s democracy. The assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe is a stark reminder that democracy cannot thrive when bullets silence ballots.

#ELSalvador today presents a conceptual paradox: Can a regime with overwhelming popular support still be a democracy in decline? 1⃣ Democracy requires more than just majority support at the ballot box. 🧵

The silence from @StateDept @SecRubio @WHAAsstSecty about @nayibbukele’s move to eliminate any limits on presidential reelection is deafening! The US has now dropped even the pretense of caring about democracy in #ElSalvador. You cannot complain about some authoritarians while enabling others.

The Trump Administration is finding out that if you live by the crazies, you die by the crazies!

“USAID has officially ceased operations.” The decision to dismantle USAID will compromise the country’s national security. This is the very definition of short-sightedness! We will come to realize this decision was unwise as China steps forward to fill the vacuum.

1️⃣ The deployment of active-duty military in a domestic security role is common in Latin America & the rest of the developing world. And is almost always a bad idea. It undermines legitimacy & professionalism of the armed forces and erodes institutional legitimacy. 🧵

How convenient: you spend billions getting Trump elected; your net worth balloons from your gov grift; you destroy good agencies like USAID; BUT, your reputation is shattered & your companies are trashed. So, now you hate Trump & we’re expected to love you again? 🤬 FU!

To all colleagues who are teaching in the summer:

The Dallas Morning News published my op-ed on the upcoming judicial elections in #Mexico. Hint: A very bad idea. The Texas example of judicial elections is a nightmare & results in Mexico promise to be worse! www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

1/ Let's be clear: POTUS & the US government are complicit in #RuthLopez's arrest & violation of human rights. By financing #Bukele's prison state & praising Bukele's harsh policies, #Trump has empowered the #Salvadoran dictator to deepen his authoritarian policies. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/w... 🧵

This is so foolish & counterproductive! These grants are vital to promoting research & cultural competency! I have served as a reviewer and the recipients are among the best students/researchers/scholars this country produces. www.insidehighered.com/news/global/...

Thanks @texasobserver.org for publishing my piece on the consequences of the Trump-Bukele "alliance" to "offshore justice." The consequences for Latin America, the United States, and Texas in particular will be significant and devastating.

Mark Carney truly has the patience of Job…

And to think Waltz left a safe congressional seat in which Republicans underperformed his margin in the special election to replace him by about 25 points—might have lost it if not for the fact Florida Democrats are hapless!

Many of you will probably be motivated to watch #Conclave again. Remember, the plot is less likely than the one for Angels & Demons!

This is premeditated destruction of the country’s foreign policy institutions! The effects will be deep & longstanding! www.nytimes.com/2025/04/20/u...

Our democracy is in the hands of two people: John Roberts & Amy Coney Barrett

This is outrages! Nayib Bukele has turned El Salvador into a giant prison! This is unconstitutional & violates intetnational law! Not to mention immoral! www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

This is devastating! Wilson Center was the leading international public policy think tank in DC. I feel terrible for the many friends who dedicated their careers making Wilson a standard for rigorous and relevant policy work. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

The Average College Student Is Illiterate www.persuasion.community/p/the-averag... Perhaps a bit too pessimistic, but not far from the truth. Btw, there's a connection b/w the phenomenon discussed & our current political situation. Unfortunately, few academic leaders nationwide are fighting back.

The Great Demolition www.persuasion.community/p/the-great-... "Americans are now experiencing the historic first 100 days of the Roosevelt presidency in reverse. That was the New Deal. This is the Great Demolition."