Cuba: US establishes a small scale (initially?) humanitarian relief mechanism with aid delivered via two flights and a maritime shipment, and distributed by the Catholic Church. www.state.gov/releases/off...

"For the second-largest economy in the world [China] to rely on other countries to prop up its growth will only accelerate the breakdown of the rules-based system." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/o...

Having some doubts about the methodology used to decide which countries would be subject to suspension of US visa processing based on those admitted eventually being "on welfare" ... when Kuwait is on the list.

China: "Exports to the U.S. dropped 20% in 2025. Meanwhile, exports to a bloc of Southeast Asian countries jumped 13%, while those to the European Union rose 8.4%, to Latin America grew 7.4% and to Africa surged 26%." www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Important paper. Climate economics debate can get into the weeds on whether measured productivity or GDP effects of climate are "large" or "small." This paper shows how welfare modeling perspective can incorporate interaction of climate with other distortions, especially tax. @roberton.bsky.social

Bloomberg News: "It’s [heat record] more evidence that “human-caused warming is now really overwhelming inter-annual natural variability” in weather, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist in the University of California’s Agriculture & Natural Resources division." www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Iran: "Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economist at Virginia Tech, estimated Iran’s total capital flight last year at between $10 billion and $20 billion, creating what he called “a bad situation that does not seem tenable.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Perhaps an implicit Washington Consensus nod from the World Bank Chief Economist ... Indermit Gill blog post in context of the latest Global Economic Prospects (GEP): "As this report [GEP] makes clear, these [developing] economies were better prepared to cope with the 2009 [GFC] ..."

DR Congo / IMF ECF 2nd review staff report. Interesting to read this paragraph in light of recent developments in central bank independence, er, elsewhere. www.imf.org/en/publicati...

Bolivia: "In the first year, the [Inter-American Development Bank] IDB Group expects to deploy about $2 billion to support a stabilization program that protects the most vulnerable segment of the population and helps restore macroeconomic stability ..."

Malawi / new type of Presidential transition dispute just dropped: "After [new President] Mutharika failed to get the dogs back in November, the Lilongwe Magistrate Court temporarily barred police from further attempts to seize them. The decision turned on a technicality: ..."

Angola / JP Morgan total return swap (via Reuters): "Angola has extended a one-year $1 billion debt facility with JPMorgan for three years and secured an extra $500 million in financing, its finance ministry said on Tuesday." www.msn.com/en-us/money/...

Munich Re natural disaster cost statistical summary of 2025: "The big picture was alarming with regard to floods, severe convective storms and wildfires in 2025. An increasing long-term impact is attributed to such non-peak perils, ..."

Sudan: "The currency has also collapsed, going from trading before the war at 570 Sudanese pounds against the dollar, to 3500 in 2026, according to the black market rate." sg.news.yahoo.com/sudan-lost-s...

Argentina: Bloomberg News report that unnamed multilateral institution provided $2.5 billion in financing to pay off swap with US Treasury (posting the Spanish language link because it appears not to need subscription unlike English language version). www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoameric...

“Stablecoin adoption has gone so far into Venezuela that even without having regulated venues where you can buy and sell them, people still choose to go for stablecoins as opposed to using the local banks.” www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Somalia / annulment of all agreements with UAE: "This decision applies to all agreements and partnerships relating to the ports of Berbera, Bosaso, and Kismayo ... (and) bilateral security and defence cooperation agreements," the [CoM] statement added." www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

The Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) has disclosed some documentation for the November Eurobond issuance, which was tapped again (for $260 million) in December. Note the issue price statement at the top. Click "download documentation" to see the offer doc. www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/YK35/t...

Letter from academics to European Parliament on digital euro: "The digital euro creates a direct link between European citizens and the European Central Bank (ECB), ..." sustainablefinancelab.nl/the-digital-...

Saudi Arabia / giga-projects: "Kristin Smith Diwan, senior resident scholar at the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute -- “Still, an amusement park is one thing. A futuristic city is another. Six Flags’ opening is unlikely to allay global scepticism towards Neom” www.ft.com/content/4975...

This is a major move relating to sovereign debt restructuring options for #Venezuela; one wonders how it could impact the protracted sale of Citgo (PDVSA owned) & potential precedents for other countries where unresolved claims are an overhang. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

From the FT article: "Many creditors expect an eventual restructuring of bonds and bilateral loans to link payouts to a rebound in oil production. Some predict that oil companies will convert arbitration claims into concessions."

Iran (NYT): “In order to organize a protest, you need to be networked, & you need to be able to afford to partake in protests,” [Esfandyar Batmanghelidj] said ... "

Venezuela (via FT): "In supermarkets in the capital this week, a kilogramme of beef cost $12, while 30 eggs were sold at $6.30. The minimum wage is just 130 bolívars per month — about 18 cents at Friday’s black market rate — ..." www.instagram.com/monitordolar...

Argentina / FT: "The US intervention “fulfilled its objective” by stabilising the exchange rate before the elections, said Gabriel Caamaño, an economist at Outlier, a financial consultancy in Buenos Aires. “In that sense it was successful.” But he added: ..."

WB Policy Research Working Paper on spatial mismatches between residential locations & businesses in big cities in South Africa. Huge data work underpinning the analysis. Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town among most mismatched in the cities in the world. documents.worldbank.org/en/publicati...

Venezuela Creditor Committee (investor group): "In that regard, the VCC believes that a comprehensive and fair resolution of the public debt restructuring, achieved through a negotiated process, ..."

Good that the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) is providing updates on its arrangements with the US Treasury Department. www.bcra.gob.ar/noticia/el-b...

Saudi Arabia / update to Eurobond prospectus with lots of useful additions to the tables in last year's document. Context is $11.5 billion in new issuance across 2029, 2031, 2036, 2056 maturities. Pricing supplement also at the link. www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article...

Senegal (Reuters): "All the work we have done allows us to see a possibility of getting out of this situation without the need for restructuring," Sonko [PM] told a joint press conference with Mauritania's prime minister on Thursday ..."

"Iran was plunged into a nationwide internet blackout on Thursday, internet monitoring groups said, amid widespread protests over dire economic conditions and anger at the Islamic Republic." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/w...

Somalia / dispute with USA over food aid: "A Mogadishu Port Authority shipment handover note, seen by Reuters and dated Wednesday, says WFP took over the food that had been "earlier shifted from the blue warehouse" to another warehouse." www.msn.com/en-gb/news/w...

Venezuela remittance channels: "Because both sides of the transaction have access to U.S. accounts, they can settle payments through fee-free peer-to-peer services such as Zelle." www.wsj.com/finance/bank...

Venezuela / From the article: "[Elizabeth] Eljuri added that she was also unsure how easy it would be for entrepreneurs to sell assets to larger companies at a later stage. “If I am a company, do I buy into a project that does not have a solid contract and solid legal foundation?” she asked. "

" ... the U.S. Department of the Treasury has notified the Green Climate Fund (GCF) that the United States is withdrawing from the Fund and stepping down from its seat on the GCF Board, effective immediately." home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

"The combined result of mass emigration and decreased female fertility is that live births in Cuba plunged to levels below those of 1899, when Cuba emerged from a bloody three-year war of independence that decimated its population, said [Juan Carlos] Albizu-Campos." www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Zambia: "While the authorities initially requested a one-year extension of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, they have since informed the IMF team that they will not pursue this option," an IMF spokesperson said." www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

US Dept of Energy statement on Venezuela: "All proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan crude oil and oil products will first settle in U.S. controlled accounts at globally recognized banks to guarantee the legitimacy and integrity of the ultimate distribution of proceeds ..."

From the article: "Jay Newman ... added: “What we’re seeing is that the [Trump] administration has a big interest in making sure that things go well in Venezuela for Venezuelans. And that desire is antithetical to giving creditors a good deal.”

New version of Dornbusch's Law, but for longer-term growth, just dropped (by Gita Gopinath): "The lesson is simple: structural damage reveals itself slowly, and always too late to be reversed."

"The free trade port experiment will allow China to try out new approaches to such things as finance, education & taxes, said Lauren Johnson, founder of New South Economics, a consultancy in Melbourne [] “while concurrently protecting the status quo on the mainland.” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/b...

From the article: "Venezuela’s current laws may need to be changed to permit foreign private participation, and its fiscal regime may also need to change before oil companies are willing to take the plunge."

"The announced influx of barrels would be good news for Gulf Coast refineries that are configured to run heavy crude including from Venezuela—and by extension for U.S. consumers of diesel and gasoline and other refined products, analysts said." www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

"The Iranian rial weakened Tuesday to 1.47 million to the dollar, a new low. The government has acknowledged the economic complaints of the protesters but has also used its security forces in hopes of keeping the demonstrations under control." www.wsj.com/world/middle...

"Oil exports collapsed to 350,000 barrels per day in the summer of 2020, during Mr. Trump’s previous effort to oust Mr. Maduro. And in 2002, oil workers allied with the Venezuelan opposition shut down the country’s oil industry for two months in a national strike." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/w...

"Elliott sees Citgo’s refineries as good investments that it wants to hold for a while, the people said. It sees itself as a well-capitalized investor that is going to increase production of gasoline and help with the White House’s goals to keep fuel prices down." www.wsj.com/business/ene...

Venezuela: "We get down to the issue of whether Trump is going to try to favour, encourage U.S.-based financial service (companies) rather than the hedge funds that are in London," said senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Christopher Sabatini." www.reuters.com/business/fin...

“When the Marines invaded Iraq, oil production was 1 million barrels a day, and now it’s closer to 5 million,” said Robert Koenigsberger, chief investment officer at Gramercy. “I think some estimates that people have for the long-run GDP of Venezuela miss the mark.” www.wsj.com/finance/vene...

"When unpaid interest is included, analysts estimate that the bonds of Venezuela & PDVSA could make up $100bn out of an estimated $150bn to $170bn in total external debt, which includes bilateral loans from China, Russia, Iran & others as well as international arbitration claims on the government."