I look forward to the return of civility, kindness, and some form of unity to the U.S.

One bullish argument for SaaS is: when it's easier to write code, you can derive more value per employee, while adding more features/revenue opportunities to your products.

My favorite A stocks: AFRM APP (though I still can’t believe it myself; but it has helped as $TTD languishes) ABNB (mostly for option income the past year+, but the stock has LT promise) Of course, AXP and AMZN as long-term holds. My favorite F stock: FIGR.

Recent IPOs are all well below their IPO prices, including StubHub, Klarna, Fermi, Navan and Gemini Space Station. STUB has been halved; KLAR is down 33%. CRCL is also far below highs. Of the 20 largest IPOs the last six months, only two are up, including FIGR.

It's rare to see an IPO that's as profitable as Figure (FIGR) is so early in its march to grow revenue -- and on a GAAP basis.

Visa (V) just increased its dividend by 13.5%, to $2.68 per share. Since its 2008 IPO, Visa's dividend has increased every year, at a CAGR of ~17.5%. If you bought shares during 2008, the dividend now pays about a 15% annual return on your starting capital, while the stock is up 2,000%+.

NVDA since Jan. 1, 2020: +3,317%. CLS, even better: +3,838%. While ADBE is up 9%.

Following Ferrari's largest one-day decline since coming public in 2014, RACE still trades at 50 times forward free cash flow estimates. An index-beating buy? You tell me. I was hoping to find it below 30 times.

Credo’s Q1 of 2026 points to strong growth this year as the need for data center connections grows quickly and its tech takes center stage. Strong results, and pricey stock now, having doubled this summer. Still holding, though.

With its strong Hoka and Ugg brands, DECK remains a growing shoe company with strong free cash flow, steady share buybacks, and a forward P/FCF of 15. I'm looking to own some for the long haul soon -- planning to buy some shares, write some puts. Tariff concerns hit it early.

I look forward to David Gardner's new book, "Rule Breaker Investing." To learn how to spot the most promising, fast-growing companies early (as it did with Amazon, Nvidia, Netflix, etc), along with a strategy that helps you buy and *keep* the stocks, the book publishes on Sept. 16. Check it out!

Here's a look at Affirm (AFRM) turning GAAP profitable last quarter, while annual free cash flow and margins grow. Obviously, consumer spending drives this business, but it'll be interesting to see if more people rely on it for delayed payments during recessions. That vs. less spending.

I tend to own stocks for years, decades even, and use options along side on some of the stocks for just as long, even some for more than a decade now.

Here's an updated look at price/free cash flow multiples, and one-year estimates, on several companies mentioned here.

With the stock slipping to $870, $NOW is trading at 39 times expected free cash flow (the green line). FCF has grown at a nearly 30% CAGR. The company is monetizing AI well, and seems likely to keep growing well despite its size. I'm glad to own it for the long term.

Affirm (AFRM) is nearing positive net income a few years after reaching positive free cash flow, with a 59% revenue CAGR since 2019.

As the S&P 500 reaches a new high today, here are some of the big winners over the years that I didn't buy or didn't keep that are likely to keep on winning (that I should still consider): BRK, MSFT, TDG, ORLY, ODFL, TT, IBP, NDAQ, CSL, CBOE, FTNT, CSL, BKNG, APH, ZS, RACE...

Visa (V) since its 2008 IPO: Steady revenue growth (2020 is the only down year), leaping FCF, and FCF multiples mostly in the 20s. As explained in its filings when it went public, cash flow was muted in part due to an ownership structure that it was shedding in going public.

Nike (NKE) has sported choppy free cash flow, and in the last 15 years, FCF has only grown 4.5% annualized (in-line with revenue growth). At $72, the stock is at 35 times forward FCF, aligned with the mid-30s multiple where it has often traded. But can it reignite better growth ahead?

Fear for the future of UBER today reminds me of fear for the future of ORLY many years ago (which I fell prey to). “ORLY will be crushed by Amazon and electric cars.” “UBER will be crushed by Tesla and autonomous cars.”

So often, free cash flow directs the share price, and value multiples and price appreciation reflect the FCF growth rate. AVGO is priced at 34 times FCF, with a FCF CAGR of 33%, driving a share price CAGR of 35%.

PINS, with key metrics trending in the right direction, fetches a reasonable 20 times NTM free cash flow and 18 times estimated earnings.

A lot is trending well at UBER while it trades at 16.7 times NTM free cash flow estimates, or a forward FCF yield of 6%.

Here are some long-term stock holdings I’m still optimistic to hold: V, MA, AXP, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, PAYC, TTD, ORCL (surprisingly), MELI, META, NOW, GOOG, VRSN, ADBE, VRSK, CME…

If you have a 1,000% gain on a stock, and it gains another 100%, many would think that’s a 1,100% gain. But it’s up 2,000% at that point. It went from 10x your original investment to 20x.

CRDO is a rare case where GAAP net income and FCF arrive right as revenue hits an inflection point and jumps. With three hyperscalers as core customers, including MSFT and AMZN, and two more expected to sign on in FY26 (which just started), Credo looks promising.

Not the best environment to have jobless claims at an 8-month high — and Challenger layoffs running 80% above last year.

$ETSY is an interesting story. The company has not been able to grow gross merchandise sales (GMS) since Q1 2022 (Pandemic bump), but has slowly grown revenue regardless. There are limits to its take rate, though. It has strong FCF, and fetches only 8x FCF.

PAYC has been in price recovery mode, with the stock up 26% YTD, and 78% the past year. Now at 37x trailing and forward FCF, it no longer looks cheap unless growth accelerates. (I own shares.)

Valued on free cash flow, some of the less expensive companies I follow and hold:

Up 2,145% since its 2008 debut, a fairly modest $47,000 invested in Visa $V at IPO has grown to $1M, with relatively few hiccups along the way. Free cash flow was an early tell (as a snarky 2008 comment below reminded).

ServiceNow (NOW) continues to look like an excellent long-term investment, executing and growing like few other software leaders, especially at its size.

Here's a great way to look at returns and drawdowns from 1970 to 2024 based on how much you invested in stocks vs. bonds. This is worth thinking about for those who want less volatility. Historically, you could still get healthy total returns with less drama.

One hundred years ago, on April 10, 1925, "The Great Gatsby" was published. Fitzgerald was 28-years-old. He believed the novel was brilliant, but critics largely panned it, and sales disappointed. The rest of his life until death at age 44, Fitzgerald struggled. He died feeling he was forgotten.

"If you only live once, then this is your one chance to own something for...30 years." @jefffischer.bsky.social on #MoneyUnplugged with @chrishillalx.bsky.social www.moneyunpluggedpodcast.com

Keep in mind: stocks that are relatively strong in this ongoing market sell-off can eventually become a source of funds for those who become anxious to sell something. So, those stocks are vulnerable the longer this goes on.

Focused on P/Free Cash Flow, here are some companies that are starting to look a bit inexpensive, and tariffs should be a small concern for most of these (other than AVGO). That said, travel is likely to stall, affecting ABNB and BKNG, and perhaps AXP a bit. And falling oil prices could hurt ARIS.

I’ve mostly bought stocks at above-average but tolerable multiples to free cash flow or expected FCF growth. In bull markets, they often rise several hundred percent. In bear markets, when they fall 30%, 40%, they’re at attractive multiples you don’t want to sell at. So you don’t.

PSA: A passport proves citizenship. A driver’s license does not. A social security card does not. A Global Entry card does not. To board a mere domestic flight and being asked to prove citizenship (due to Jeff vs Jeffrey), a passport is the proof.

As with the dot-com implosion, the Great Financial Crisis, and the 2022 bear market when many stocks fell 50% or more, this is another case where investors need to outlast the new problems.

Use today to remind yourself that cash is indeed defensive when stocks are falling. YTD with interest, cash has held its buying power, while the Nasdaq is down 15% and the S&P 500 has fallen about 8%. And cash = new opportunities.

These days are the epitome of investing through uncertainty. Invest in yourself as well.

One risk to today’s extreme data center spending is AI could become much more efficient than expected, sooner than estimated, lowering the trajectory for data center needs. Plus, efficiency is the aim.

Microsoft cancelling planned data center leases, and delaying some related projects, is just one (large?) indicator that AI-related spending may cool a bit. Alibaba’s chairman suggests a spending bubble.

A Pro Portfolio position since 2010, Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) has returned 18.2% annualized (excluding a 1.48% dividend) with modest volatility. Dominating the proxy filing business, nearly two-thirds of revenue is recurring; acquisitions and new services add to growth.

VEEV is up 13% YTD in a down market. High margins, high free cash flow, steady growth, and an amusing diversification "bonus": rather than software, it typically gets classified as "health care." At 33 times expected FCF, it's still clawing back from 2020 highs; FCF has doubled since.

Buffett started buying BYD (Ticker: BYDDY) in 2008, and began reducing the stake in 2022 after it jumped. He lately owns nearly 2% of the company as car sales and free cash flow continue to grow. Yesterday, the stock hit new highs as BYD debuted technology that takes 5 minutes to charge a car.

Jeff Green, CEO at The Trade Desk, said in the last conference call, "... in some cases, the slower Kokai rollout was deliberate, a quicker rollout would result in more short-term spend, and we don't always build what the customers want. Instead, we are trying to understand what the customer needs.”