We have a full update on the twin Invests in the Atlantic and what we know (and more importantly don’t know) about them today. Plus, Gabrielle isn’t done yet, with hurricane impacts coming to the Azores. More below or at theeyewall.com

Hope you’re all surviving the rapture okay! Here’s a Tuesday evening video tropical update.

We’re beginning to look closer at newly minted Invests 93L and 94L in the SW Atlantic. The overall weather pattern is a mess with high uncertainty, but folks on the East Coast, Bahamas, Caribbean islands, and Bermuda should be keeping an eye on things. Details today:

Prefer a video tropical update? Gotcha covered. Gettin’ noisy out there folks.

It’s starting to actually look like September in the Atlantic. We have the latest on Gabrielle’s rapid intensification, as well as the two disturbances we’re watching and what they may do in the coming days. Read for more!

Today we take a look at Gabrielle, its path to a hurricane that goes out to sea, the next tropical wave, as well as a pattern change in the U.S. that will bring wetter weather to drought-plagued parts of the country. Check it out below or at theeyewall.com.

Put together a short video explainer about the differences between AI and traditional weather modeling in the 8-10 day period. What do these differences mean and why?

Gabrielle is beginning to overcome what has inhibited it so far, and intensification in the open Atlantic is likely. We discuss that one, as well as take a closer look at the AI vs. traditional weather model battle brewing in the Caribbean today:

TS Gabrielle in the Atlantic looks like hot garbage this morning, a microcosm of the season to date. We take a look at that forecast, what comes next, and a check on the flooding risk in the Southwest and SoCal today.

TD 7 has formed in the Atlantic. It’s unlikely to be a major land threat. We also look at the Mid-Atlantic coastal storm and debate whether it was subtropical or non-tropical and why it doesn’t really matter. Plus, the latest on California t’storm risks today.

Lots doing out there! We may have our next tropical depression soon, though it doesn’t appear to be a land threat. There’s a significant coastal storm in the Mid-Atlantic right now. There’s also some impactful weather coming to California and the West. Read more below!

While the Atlantic may see some activity, none of it looks like a land threat. What comes next? Meanwhile, the moisture from Pacific TS Mario may engage California thunderstorm chances (and some fire risk) later this week. More below.

The next wave could develop, but it doesn't appear to be a serious land threat at this time. Beyond that, we aren't quite sure where the next thing to watch will be, as it looks pretty benign a bit longer. More on that and flood chances this weekend.

Icymi, we posted late yesterday on the bizarre quiet in the tropics for this time of the season.

What’s the deal with the peak of hurricane season being ABSOLUTELY SILENT? Well, we explain what’s up and when it might maybe change. Or not. open.substack.com/pub/theeyewa...

ICYMI, we have a unique perspective today on this 125th anniversary of the deadliest American hurricane.

Today marks the 125th anniversary of the Great 1900 hurricane that devastated Galveston, the deadliest single weather event in American history. But it wasn’t inevitable. The decisions made before and after the 1900 storm and relevance of it today rings loudly if we’re listening.

With Invest 91L's development window cratering, we turn to some informed speculation of what could happen next in the Atlantic. Plus, how may Kiko impact Hawaii? Details today below or at theeyewall.com.

We have the latest on Invest 91L in the Atlantic, which appears to be losing some support for development for now at least. Also, Hurricane Kiko is expected to make it to Hawaii, likely as a tropical storm next week. Details on what we know today. More below or at theeyewall.com

An Atlantic tropical wave continues to perk up some. Hurricane Lorena will aid in delivering locally heavy rainfall in the Sonoran Desert from California to New Mexico. Hurricane Kiko is one to watch for Hawaii in the coming days. Details on all below or at theeyewall.com.

A lot of interesting little wrinkles at play with this current tropical wave that points to a bit of uncertainty in the next 5 to 7 days. We assess what’s happening based on this morning’s data below or at theeyewall.com:

While it's too early to say anything with a lot of confidence regarding the disturbance in the Atlantic, we explain what we know. Plus, the Desert Southwest may get some beneficial rain courtesy of the latest Pacific tropical depression. Details below or at theeyewall.com.

As quiet a Labor Day as we could ask for today. Good news for sure, but what’s at play over the next week to 10 days? We discuss. Plus, details on some other items of note around the globe. Check it out below or at theeyewall.com.

A somewhat different post today. On the 20th anniversary of Katrina, we ask the question, “Have we learned enough?” The uncomfortable reality is that we probably have not. More here or at theeyewall.com. open.substack.com/pub/theeyewa...

The quiet Atlantic continues, though there is always something to check out. The Pacific is busy, however. And flooding chances will pockmark the Southern U.S. the next few days. Details below or at theeyewall.com

It looks like we can at least point to the next tropical wave to watch in the Atlantic, but whether it does much is a reasonable question. The latest on that, and a look in the West, where monsoon moisture may help cause flooding in Idaho and surrounding states today. More below or at theeyewall.com

Not a lot happening in the tropics, so we look at the context around a big Hurricane Erin AI model notch in the belt. We also show how Erin is impacting Europe now, as well as a major haboob that descended on Phoenix yesterday. Details below or at theeyewall.com!

What's up in the tropics? Not a whole lot in the Atlantic. We explain, touch on a Vietnam typhoon, and look at flooding risk again. Details below or at theeyewall.com.

The latest on the tropics today (which isn’t much of note). We also take a look at some of the wildfire issues from California to Atlantic Canada, flooding risks on the way to Oklahoma and Arkansas, and cool weather that will dominate much of the country. More below or at theeyewall.com.

Invest 90L has been upgraded to TS Fernand this evening. First look at its track brings it well east of Bermuda and out to sea by midweek. There is some chance it becomes a hurricane before it dissipates. No threat to land. See our morning update for more: theeyewall.substack.com/p/tropics-st...

Erin’s extratropical, but we may get Fernand near & east of Bermuda next. However, it does appear that the tropics are going to begin to settle down, just as we are approaching the historical peak in activity. We explain what’s happening over the next couple weeks today below or at theeyewall.com

Erin’s exit strategy is underway, but it will deliver a bit of a hiccup to wildfire risks in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI. Meanwhile, we check on Invests 90L and 99L, as well as flooding chances (and beneficial rain!) for the Rockies and Plains next week. Details below or at theeyewall.com.

Hurricane Erin is lashing the Outer Banks this morning with tropical storm conditions. We have the latest on the NC impacts, as well as Atlantic Canada, including wildfire risk semi-related to Erin. Plus, the latest on what is behind Erin & more. Details below or at theeyewall.com

Hurricane Erin is fighting off dry air and shear this morning, which has caused it to lose intensity but maintain a large size. Two tropical features in the Atlantic behind Erin are worth keeping tabs on, but none looks to be a serious land threat at this time. #weather #hurricaneerin

Ignore the silly headlines. Still, Erin will be a significant concern in the Outer Banks. Otherwise, beach erosion, tidal flooding, and rip currents will pester the entire East Coast through the week. Details on all this and the latest on the next wave today below or at theeyewall.com

Erin is doing what major hurricanes do: Growing in size, while fluctuating in intensity. Expect this continue. We have the latest on how it could impact the Outer Banks, East Coast, Bermuda, and Newfoundland. We also check in on the next wave to watch. More below or at theeyewall.com

#Erin is a textbook case of the explosive intensification rates that pose an increasing problem as the planet's oceans and atmosphere heat up. Saving grace this time: Erin is on track to avoid making landfall anywhere. Next time: who knows? yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/08/erin...

A historic rate of intensification has brought Erin to elite, borderline cat 5 intensity this morning. Thankfully, the track forecast has not changed a whole lot. We have the details below or at theeyewall.com.

Erin is now a hurricane, so we’ve got the latest on its future. Invest 98L will be mostly a net positive with beneficial S Texas rain. We’ve also got eyes on what's after Erin, as well as flooding risks the next few days in the Upper Midwest and Arizona. More below or at theeyewall.com!

Our latest on TS Erin, as well as Invest 98L in the Gulf is here. Folks on the East Coast and in Canada should continue monitoring Erin, even if it’s expected to turn out to sea. Some fringe impacts to the NE Caribbean are expected as well. Bermuda should continue watching Erin closely. More:

While #Erin continues to be slow to organize, there is pretty good model agreement on the storm’s future. Still, it will require some vigilance for the NE Caribbean and Bermuda in particular. We detail what we know today in our morning update below or at theEyewall.com.

And since many of you have objections with Substack, we have continued to maintain theeyewall.com as an alternative. We publish there daily with the same content. We understand the objections. Just understand this is still our side project, and this platform works easiest for us. We’ll get there.

The Eyewall is now a top 25 bestseller in climate and environment on Substack. As the hype machine cranks up, if you are interested in getting a low hype, realistic, straightforward take on weather each day, give us a follow or feel free to subscribe! substack.com/@theeyewall?...

Erin is struggling this morning. Thunderstorms have diminished a good bit. While the overall forecast is not severely changed, these subtle changes will play a role going forward. Worth continuing to keep a check on Erin, especially for the northeast Caribbean. More below or at theeyewall.com

Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the eastern Atlantic, but the forecast has not changed a whole heck of a lot. Read our evening update for the latest below or at theeyewall.com.

Invest 97L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin. The first bid from NHC is out and shows no land impact over the next 5 days.

Invest 97L is on the cusp of becoming a depression this morning. Today, we take a look at what's changed since the weekend about this one's future. While the odds still probably heavily favor an out to sea track, there are some pieces of the puzzle to keep tabs on. More below or at theeyewall.com

Invest 97L is the system to watch this week in the Atlantic, and we break down what we know today -- which is more than yesterday but not by a lot. Also, flooding in Milwaukee and flooding risk in Kansas and Missouri. Details below or at theeyewall.com

Our first video update of hurricane season. Gonna try to do more of these where we can. Available on our Instagram page or substack. www.instagram.com/reel/DNI44cU...

The next tropical wave does bear some watching, but it will slowly cross the Atlantic over the next 7 to 10 days. We have a lonnnnng way to go. Meanwhile, flooding risk is back in the cards in Iowa and Wisconsin. All the details on those items and more today below or at theeyewall.com