Oil prices are up ~50% in a month. That's good for exporters like Canada, but tougher for Canadians. In today's Globe and Mail, I argue next-gen geothermal could produce more electricity at home so we can export more energy at global prices. www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...

It's out! New CER Energy Futures report looks at four scenarios to explore a range of possible futures for Canada's energy sector. TLDR: We need moar electricity. www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-anal...

Wind turbines didn't always look like they do now. Engineers tried everything, but only one design could win. And the industry consolidated around it to drive down costs. That's the home court advantage. What does that mean for emerging tech? petermassie.substack.com/p/the-home-c...

You can't control the sun! About 20% of oil and LNG trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. We're seeing the consequences of that today. But over 75% of key phases across the solar supply chain are in one country (guess which one). So no, you can't control the sun. But you don't need to.

The IEA Geothermal TCP released a new report, and there's a few points I think deserve attention. First - excitement around drilling isn't contingent on a silver bullet. There's a broad portfolio of solutions emerging - from incremental to radical.

Why do new technologies look chaotic? Because we don't know what works. So engineers must explore the entire design space. That variety makes it hard to generalize about emerging technologies. Airborne wind energy is a perfect example. New piece: petermassie.substack.com/p/why-new-te...

Next-gen geothermal might be cheaper than you think. Independent modelling based on Fervo suggests capex is just US$5600/kW, with LCOE of US$85/MWh. That's present costs, not projected. Massive implications for the future of energy. softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/Fe...

Emerging technologies often trigger strong reactions: excitement, skepticism, dismissal. But how should we actually evaluate something that looks unconventional, implausible or sensational? New essay in Configurations on airborne wind energy and the role of method in technology assessment:

“Technology X is too expensive.” Compared to what? Which technology exactly? How is it used? Where is it deployed? Most arguments about energy tech gloss over those questions - but they define a technology's value. New essay in Configurations: petermassie.substack.com/p/a-technolo...

RBC Energy Report on Canada' geothermal power opportunity: "If Canada does not act... it risks becoming a technology taker rather than a technology maker in a sector where Canadian subsurface expertise and geological endowment offer natural advantages." www.rbc.com/en/thought-l...

Projections about the future might be contentious. But the data about what's happening today is pretty clear.

Last week, Chamath Palihapitiya wrote a powerful narrative on solar - and I generally agree with it. But the narrative isn't universal. Solar's value depends on context - especially rooftop solar. So I wrote a bit on the nuance of rooftop solar's value petermassie.substack.com/p/wheres-the...

#Geothermal costs due to plummet. pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/02/02/n...

Canada exports raw power. Sounds great, but we're missing out. AI gives Canada a chance to refine crude electrons into high-value services—without raising rates—if we require data centres to bring new clean supply online. My latest in @hilltimes.com 👇 www.hilltimes.com/story/2026/0...

Drilling might be mature - but there's still major opportunities for innovation!

The labs formerly known as NREL just released their 2025 Geothermal Market Report. This chart on EGS costs jumps out immediately. Massive and rapid cost decline in just five years.

If you think Venezuelan oil will compete with Canada - you must also believe there's a business case for a pipeline to Canada's West coast. It's difficult to imagine industry prefers to invest in expanding production in Venezuela > creating value from existing Canadian assets

Will Venezuelan oil compete with Canada's? I'm not so sure. Both are heavy oil, but: Heavy oil is capital intensive and takes years to build out. Canada's oil sands build out was an incredible feat, supported by a historic super cycle where oil prices 3X'd. It's not clear we'll see that again.

Oil demand set to increase just under 1 million barrels per day in 2026 - according to @iea.org's oil market report: www.iea.org/reports/oil-... Interesting to note that growth is increasingly dominated by petrochemical feedstocks. Demand is increasing - but it's profile is changing too.

Wherever you are and whatever you celebrate - wishing you all a wonderful few days of 'great stuff on TV' season. Some years it's LotR, other years it's Jurassic Park marathons, and sometimes football. But it's always a nice way to spend a few days on the couch with the people that matter most.

Amazing how reasonable, informed people can look at a complex system and see two completely different things. Underscores that there's no easy answers, and we need to stay curious.

Chevron's CEO on why they're leveraging their expertise to advance geothermal: it "...can potentially allow access to a widespread baseload, nonintermittent resource that can complement and add capacity to meet the world's growing renewable-power demand". www.wsj.com/articles/che...

China's oil consumption for transport may fall in 2025 almost as much as it did in 2020, during the pandemic. "China’s oil consumption [for transport] is projected to fall for the 2nd consecutive year in 2025, declining by 4.6% year-on-year and by 7.2% compared to 2023."

Canada's energy sector directly employs over 300,000 people - of which two thirds are in petroleum. Geothermal projects use the same expertise and skills as the ~200,000 people working in Canada's conventional energy sector. This is a space where Canada can compete - and win.

Big day for geothermal power: Eavor starts it's first of a kind commercial demonstration of closed loop technology. Zanskar has another major discovery. Can't wait to see what's in store tomorrow.

Baseload power has value - but it isn't absolute. People often focus on technology costs but context matters to (maybe more!). Northern climates face unique challenges that make firm power more valuable - especially as we reduce emissions.

Geothermal exploration is getting better and better: @zanskargeothermal.bsky.social has announced its 3rd geothermal discovery. The discovery confirms a geothermal anomaly (or hotspot)- predicted by an AI model without pre-existing well data. zanskargeothermal.substack.com/p/zanskar-re...

'Hydraulic fracturing is a mature technology.' I hear this all the time - the implication being that costs won't improve. The only problem? Big improvements keep happening. For example: Exxon's new proppant increases oil production up to 18%. jpt.spe.org/from-coke-to...

PSA: New Canadian Energy Fact Book is out! energy-information.canada.ca/sites/defaul...

Flow rates are key to geothermal economics. Higher flow => more energy => more power. So even if capex is fixed, higher flow rates can drive down unit costs. And flow rates are getting better thanks to innovation that improves performance (vs. reducing capex alone)

Friendly reminder: oversupply does not preclude new supply. Your place on the supply curve is what really matters. If you can produce for less than the next person, they become the oversupply. Oversupply makes things difficult for new entrants - but far from impossible

That feeling when you learn a new skill in Excel - even if it's not all that impressive

"It's too small-scale" is not a useful criticism of new technology. The ZEEP reactor - the forerunner to CANDU - produced less than 10 Watts. Two decades later, these designs produced 100s of millions of Watts. Two decades after that, they scaled to nearly a billion Watts.

We're at a unique moment where supply-side innovation in drilling / reservoir creation are lining up with growing demand from electrification and AI. Just as coal and steam engines created a virtuous cycle that spawned the industrial revolution - we could be on the cusp of something historical.

One of the key concerns about fracking is induced seismicity. So I took a look at data from Northeast BC. What I found surprised me: Only a very small share of induced seismicity can be felt at the surface.

This might be the most important chart for understanding geothermal project economics. Power increases nonlinearly with temperature, all else being equal. A ~2.5X increase in temp from 160F to 375F yields ~8X more power.

Much criticism of Canada's LNG plans focuses on potential oversupply. But markets aren't just 'first come first serve'. In the long run, it's your place on the supply curve that matters. Looks like Canada can compete. Any other supply curves out there that see it otherwise?

Deeper can be cheaper. It might seem counter-intuitive that drilling deeper can actually lower costs for geothermal projects. But as you reach higher temperatures, you need fewer wells to generate the same amount of power - and your surface plant gets more productive.

What would geothermal power cost in Canada? Local conditions have a big impact - but high temperature regions in BC and NWT are already competitive at costs of ~US$100 / MWh. With innovation costs could fall to less than half that.

"Geothermal’s environmental credentials are stellar...it can provide reliable electricity around the clock." @economist.com covers the potential of superhot rock #geothermal to meet long-term demands for zero-carbon power, with insight from CATF's Terra Rogers. www.economist.com/interactive/...

Friendly reminder: power prices change dramatically through the day. Alberta's electricity price is ~$25 / MWh overnight - but spikes ~40X to $800 at peak. This happens in most (if not all) markets. This underscores the value of reliable generation and demand-side measures

Why is geothermal power having a moment? We're learning how to drill faster - a lot faster. Drilling is one of the key costs - and rigs are rented by the day. So as drilling speeds accelerate, costs fall. Chart via @cleanaircatf.bsky.social

Not to mention that geothermal costs are falling, it uses the same expertise as the existing energy industry, and provides the reliable power needed for AI and data centres. The time for geothermal is now - and it's well overdue.

Competition between startups including Fervo Energy, Eavo and XGS Energy is hotting up. 2026 looks set to mark the start of the great geothermal renaissance

When it comes to geothermal energy, Canada doesn’t need to start from scratch. 👷‍♂️By repurposing existing industries, Canada can build a cleaner, more sustainable energy future — faster. #GeothermalEnergy #CleanTech #CanadaEnergy #EnergyTransition #RenewableEnergy #OilAndGas

🤡OIL DEMAND WILL KEEP RISING🤡 What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?

The only table you need from the IEA's WEO is from the STEPS Scenario STEPS includes more realistic assumptions about how energy systems are changing - rather than assuming they pause like the Current Policy Scenario IEA hasn't 'changed course' - STEPS and CPS show diverging roles for fossil fuels

The IEA's World Energy Outlook has been released - but is it credible? This year's WEO includes a Current Policies Scenario that projects solar deployments stall at 540 GW per year - despite falling costs. That's a red flag for me. Here's why:

The 2025 Federal Budget signals major investments in Canada’s national power grid and clean electricity technologies — but how ready is geothermal energy to scale? #GeothermalEnergy #CleanTech #CanadaEnergy #EnergyTransition #RenewableEnergy #ClimateAction  #FederalBudget2025

Hopefully now people will stop intentionally ramming my car