Back from a week’s military exercise with the Swedish Home Guard. As always: good company, lots of learning, and a strong sense of purpose. (Photo not from the exercise area.) A short thread on the Home Guard and other ways to volunteer in Sweden’s total defense. #hemvärnet

På 4-årsdagen av Rysslands förnyade, fullskaliga krig mot Ukraina deltog jag idag i en panel organiserad av Folk och Försvar. Ukrainas ambassadör Svitlana Zalishchuk inledde med ett urstarkt anförande. www.youtube.com/live/oSD9q3l...

Yesterday, I gave a lecture on possible future scenarios — all of them rather bleak — at the Home Guard’s officers' mess. The discussion continued over dinner. A stimulating evening in excellent company.

Just back from a short trip to Mallorca with some of the buddies I did my conscription service with — 36 years ago! Much has changed since then, but friendships remain.

Back from a fabulous mountain trek with my son!

Presenterade den dystra omvärldsutvecklingen, de ökande konfliktnivåerna med data från Uppsala konfliktdataprogram @ucdp.bsky.social , och diskuterade framtidsutsikter med @erikmelander.bsky.social i Almedalen. #Almedalen

Veterans Day in Sweden today. Grateful for peace—and reminded of the need to protect it. Today also marks 85 years since the founding of the Swedish Home Guard. 🇸🇪 #Veterandagen #Hemvärnet Shared a few more photos from Bosnia 1996—album linked below.

Possibly my last public appearance as Director of the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament: honoured to speak on arms control at the Parliament with FOI experts Karl Sörenson and Martin Goliath. Grateful to draw on insights from our new AMCdata—80+ arms control agreements (link in comments)!

Beautiful walk home after the inaugural Peter Wallensteen Lecture delivered by Professor Mary Ellen O’Connell and organized by the Department of Peace and Conflict Research in honor of its founder, Peter Wallensteen. Hard to believe it’s been more than 30 years since Peter became my thesis advisor!

Samtal med Kristian Gerner i P1 Morgon i ljuset av lärdomarna från det andra världskrigets slut: ”Så bygger vi en hållbar fred” Länk nedan, samt länkar till några av mina texter på DN Debatt och SVD Debatt (betalvägg), samt på @larswilderang.cornucopia.se blogg Cornucopia (ej betalvägg)

Tired but happy today as an 8-day exercise with the Home Guard wraps up. As always, it's been a great mix of learning, camaraderie, and purposeful work. I thought I’d share a bit about what the Swedish Home Guard is, and how it fits into the broader concept of Sweden’s Total Defense.

Bra Sebastian! Men tramsigt och fördomsfullt av poddarna att introducera värnplikt med klipp från Full Metal Jacket, som skildrar amerikanska marinkåren för 40 år sedan. För den som funderar på lumpen rekommenderas något nutida från Sverige, t.ex. "Jägarsoldat". www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/organisat...

This important report documents, among many interesting survey findings, how closely aligned the views on the war are among the Swedish and Ukrainian peoples. novus.se/egnaundersok...

Honored to be published in Kvartal ’s annual edition, a concentrate of the best from 2024. My article on security policy—Sweden’s key issue with the U.S.—draws from Heritage Foundation’s 900-page manifesto, now reflected in Trump 2.0. Support Kvartal: order the print via link in comments.

Idag har Dagens Nyheter en artikel om att Danmarks militära underrättelsetjänst varnar för att Ryssland kan komma att hota Sverige med kärnvapen. Jag och flera andra intervjuas. Jag tror vi måste vara mentalt förberedda på mer av denna typ av rysk hotretorik framöver. www.dn.se/sverige/spio...

Idag medverkade jag i panelen "Krig, fred & jämställdhet" på Forum Jämställdhet, med Gabriela Elroy, Olov Kesselmark, Malin Nilsson och Per Nilsson – modererade av Charlotte Isaksson. Fint att se ett brett engagemang som bidrar till ett bättre samhälle och ett starkare försvar!

A new study finds that member state interests are critical when the International Criminal Court (ICC) selects which preliminary examinations it initiates. The article is by our Prof. Lisa Hultman and Herman Wieselgren, with Hasini Ransala Liyanage fron Oslo Uni. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

In a new episode of our podcast Researching Peace, Johan Brosché helps us navigate the complexities and horrors of the civil war currently raging in Sudan. Johan works as associate professor at our department and is one of Sweden’s leading experts on Sudan. 🎧 Listen: www.podbean.com/eas/pb-ntz4m...

Check out the @economist.com 15min video on "How Nationals that Fail Women, Fail" where I am interviewed! www.youtube.com/watch?v=alXI...

I en intervju med Svenska Yle @yle.naamio.social om kärnvapen tar jag upp risken att fler länder utvecklar #kärnvapen framöver. Jag anser att detta är ytterligare skäl till varför stödet till Ukraina är i vårt intresse. Utöver de starka moraliska skälen. yle.fi/a/7-10070631

NATO announces "Baltic Sentry", a "multi-domain activity" (?) in response to cable damage (see below). Also a joint statement by eight Baltic coastal states: "the involved nations are coordinating the employment of different options and assets." www.presidentti.fi/joint-statem...

Här kommer en länk till panelen som jag deltog i på Folk och Försvars Rikskonferens i Sälen, med Anna Wieslander, Göran von Sydow, Inga Näslund, och moderator Karin Hübinette. För mig blev det ett tankeväckande och bra samtal om bl.a. Ukraina, NATO, fred, kärnvapen. www.youtube.com/live/iNPS_-T...

Danish prime minister Mette Fredriksen has called an emergency meeting for party leaders tonight to discuss Trump's Greenland antics. www.nrk.no/norge/trumps...

In the latest poll, Swedish support for the country’s NATO membership has remained very stable, now at 62%. It was also constantly rising during the accession process although Sweden’s internal and external security situation deteriorated quite dramatically during the not so smooth process.

📚 Are you building a dataset? Simplify the coding with your own data collection app! I've written a tutorial on how to build an app in #R #Shiny that allows you to input, save, and edit data in an interactive online environment. ➡️ www.sebastianvanbaalen.se/uploads/tuto... PolSciData Conflictsky

Still looking for people to follow here? Subscribe to my starter pack filled with experts on armed conflict, political violence, and peace processes ⤵️ Conflictsky Polisky go.bsky.app/7o8tZt2

Interesting to cover the two-day Nordic-Baltic-Polish high-level summit at Harpsund this week. Strong political signals sent to the Kremlin from the seven leaders on NATO's Northeastern Flank about increased support to Ukraine 🇺🇦, though the extent and timeline remain unclear. #NordicBalticSummit 1/6

Vi vet att Ryssland för ett utnötningskrig mot såväl det ukrainska försvaret som mot den västerländska sammanhållningen. Därför är det viktigt att det svenska engagemanget i Ukraina uppvisar enighet och envishet, skriver Magnus Karlsson och Lena Wilderäng.

Well said! Many in peace and conflict research share this perspective. Glorifying war is indeed dangerous—we strive for peace, but if war becomes unavoidable, a deeper understanding is crucial. Our goal is to contribute to understanding peace – and war.

🚨 4️⃣ positions to be filled! Join us in Frankfurt/Darmstadt for exciting work in #nuclear arms control, nonproliferation and disarmament at the crossroads of #science and policy! DLs mid-December and later, vary per position. Working language English. And we move into new fancy office spaces! 🚨

From AMC: "With two weeks left to submit proposals for our 12-13 June conference on nuclear disarmament, we want to extend a special invitation to all natural scientists! Are you researching something broadly related to nuclear disarmament or do you know someone who does?" uu.se/en/centre/al...

Now in the American Sociological Review: Building on Mark Twain, Elinor Ostrom, and Mancur Olson, I argue that lynch mobs overcome the collective action problem by drawing on strong community. Open access to The "Dark Side" of Community Ties in Mexico: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Today, I shared a brief comment with Svenska Yle on my interpretation of Russia's revised nuclear doctrine: "Melander sees this as yet another example of Russian signaling policy. – This statement primarily reflects Russian weakness, says Melander." Link to the article (in Swedish) below.

Like many countries, Sweden conducts periodic air raid siren tests. Today was a test day. During the Cold War, Dad would be away for weeks on military refresher training, and we even had a disco in the large shelter beneath our school. Those times are making a return. www.thelocal.se/20160905/wha...

The World May Be Entering a Much Bloodier Era "In 2011, when Pinker published “Better Angels,” there were nearly 40,000 deaths from warfare worldwide, Uppsala estimates. In 2022, they say, the number was above 238,000 — a nearly sixfold increase. It had nearly doubled in a single year."

ICYMI: UPPDATERAS: Ryssland bekräftas använt C-stridsmedel i Avdiivka – massiva ryska förluster fortsätter – Lavrov fast i Brasilien pga sanktioner – risk för rysk terrorbombning 24:e februari: Ryssland har nu bekräftats använt kemiska stridsmedel i anfallen mot Avdiivka. De ryska mssiva…

Intervju i Upsala Nya Tidning idag med anledning av Rysslands invasion av #Ukraina. Betalvägg. "– Det finns en reell risk för ett storkrig i Europa och till med för ett världskrig. Det är inte det mest sannolika, men det är så sannolikt att vi måste ta det på allvar." unt.se/bli-prenumer...

Skriver på DN Debatt idag! Nedan länkar jag några texter som sammanfattar de viktigaste lärdomarna från freds-och konfliktforskningen med tillämpning på Rysslands krig mot Ukraina. DN Debatt och SVD Debatt är betalvägg, men gästkrönikorna på @larswilderang.bsky.social blogg Cornucopia är öppna.

For the first time ever, a realistic assessment of the Transnistrian war. Could have benefitted from expanding a bit on Lebed’s tole in ascertaining a TN victory, though.

Medverkade idag på seminarium Försvarshögskolan om det civila försvaret. Jag presenterade ”Rysslands krig mot Ukraina - möjliga utfall och konsekvenser”, video från ca 1:28:00 - 1:51:00. Drog 3500 års historia och framtiden på 20 min så det blev kanske lite forcerat. www.youtube.com/live/lWIPX5t...

Just returned home after a fantastic week of meetings (and a short mountain trek) in Thailand! Engaging in seminars and meetings and delving into discussions on our research and current issues was inspiring. Here are links to some of our Thailand research w @elinbja.bsky.social and other colleagues.

In Thailand, for a series of meetings with academics, politicians, and civil society. But first - a short but spectacular mountain trek!

30th of December❄️We've been discussing protecting your mental health a lot this year as social media has become more difficult to navigate safely. Here is a guide for researchers in maintaining their mental hygiene whilst covering harrowing subjects. www.bellingcat.com/resources/20...

As expected, a perceived weakening of the will to support Ukraine leads to a hardening of the Russian position. This underlines the importance of continued support to avoid a catastrophic outcome, negotiated or not. More on negotiations @larswilderang.bsky.social blog: cornucopia.se/2023/04/gast...

🕊️ We're the Department of Peace and Conflict research at Uppsala University in Sweden - we're glad to join the Bluesky Social! We look forward to engaging in the exchange of insightful thoughts with all of you. Curious to learn more about us? Visit our YouTube channel 🔗 youtu.be/7RCbMrTWlfs?...

The 19th issue of the UCDP Newsletter @ucdp.bsky.social has just been released. Our focus for this issue is on the organized violence that occurred in October 2023, as well as a fundamental question in our work: Why does collecting conflict data matter? UCDP Newsletter #19 (paloma.se)

Read Prof. @isaksvensson.bsky.social annual chronicle "War and Peace / Krig och fred" in the magazine manskligsakerhet.se. Isak Svensson summarizes the ten most significant events of the past year. 🔗Krig och fred – Isak Svenssons årskrönika 2023 (manskligsakerhet.se)

A podcast conversation with Prof Laurie Nathan and myself, on the our new book on Conflict Mediation in the Arab World

Excited to see @tanishafazal.bsky.social forthcoming book Military Medicine and the Hidden Costs of War available for pre order in the @bridgingthegap.bsky.social book series at Oxford University Press global.oup.com/academic/pro...