Thoughtful piece by my current favourite podcaster @dwarkesh.bsky.social on where we're at with AI progress and reflections around intelligence itself: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Yann LeCun being let go by Meta might have some unexpected benefits 🍿

This may be very old man of me, but I feel like there is something about the bluesky algorithm/my feed that is not sucking me in enough. I know, I know, it's sort of the point but still, I need to have some pull to check out the content and it isn't quite itching that scratch.

With the AWS outage, now‘s as good a time as any to post this old strip.

Happy to share my first piece of analysis work with the Discovery team at @nestauk.bsky.social on 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗿! The Mission Radar is a briefing series on innovation signals and emerging trends in Nesta’s missions. We use AI to scan for innovation across business, academia and policy. (1/7)

What a really interesting conversation between two of my favourite people in AI in the form of @karpathy.bsky.social and @dwarkesh.bsky.social. I wish more ppl in this space took the same approach in terms of being open to debate, challenge and overall being humble. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXUZ...

So theoretically LLMs can be deterministic if we set their temperature to zero, but in practice they aren't. This comes down to how we do calculations such as matrix multiplication at inference time. It turns out the order you do these calculations in does matter. (1/6)

Does anyone have cool (or boring) agentic use-cases that they've read about or used? Doing some horizon scanning work to see what's out there but thought my bluesky network might have ideas!

What if there was an AI-powered tool that allowed policymakers to rapidly identify the most effective policies to tackle any given social challenge, based on the latest evidence? (1/2)

This was a fun ML problem to tackle, underlined some of the data quality issues with EPCs (92% of the storey count field was missing) 😅. Think the conclusion around the distinct heating strategies needed for areas with different rise types is definitely a salient one!

Favourite feature from the GPT-5 release is being able to quickly spin out different UIs (which can be previewed), make easy edits without needing to manually edit JS code myself. It's pretty good at instruction following now too!

Some Friday evening listening a l'italiano 🇮🇹: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rL1s...

OpenAIs graphs against humanity for their release of GPT-5 is just *chefs kiss*. We've achieved PhD level intelligence but watch us make graphs where 50 < 47

What a ridiculous state of affairs. Terence Tao one of the greatest mathematicians of his generation getting his grants suspended 💩

Brilliant news and about time!

Listened to the "build a career in data science" whilst making the transition from academia to data science. Found it an extremely useful resource and would recommend to anyone starting out on their journey. Even now I've been relistening and still v relevant: open.spotify.com/show/78Nft51...

Love this plot of ASHP vs GSHP in terms of their COPs. Really nice illustration of the outdoor temperature dependency of ASHPs vs that of GSHPs (or lack thereof). Observed performance has been interpolated, but based off 2 years of sensor data for a sample size of 883 ASHPs and 124 GHSPs resp. (1/2)

So...many scenarios in which top tech people are predicting AGI within 5 years. Demis Hassabis thinking it'll be just after 2030, and I just can't help but think about how crazy the next 5 years are going to be if these predictions are anywhere close to the mark..

What's on your radar? 📡 Excited to share our first Mission Radar – a quarterly look at innovation signals spotted in our foresight work at @nestauk.bsky.social We explored innovations around reducing home carbon emissions, linked to our sustainable future mission. www.nesta.org.uk/feature/miss...

Really cool work done by my colleagues at @nestauk.bsky.social where they use AI to scan for innovation trends/signals. This first edition of Mission radar is on low carbon heating! Check it out.

The cover of Andrej Karpathy's youtube channel got me rofling 🤣

I've had a first stab at making a list of GenAI ppl on here but it's proving harder than anticipated! X is still the place to be for that content. Let me know if you're interested in being added or know anyone who would be a good addition😎 bsky.app/profile/did:...

OpenAI have released a few new models (gpt-4.1, gpt-4.1-mini and gpt-4.1-nano) for their api. I was watching their live release as we've got an application which uses their previous model and wondering about the jump in performance. I'm still guessing based on this plot, where are the values??? 😅

Does anyone find it annoying that Google are force feeding us Gemini in every search. I used to quote that a ChatGPT query was worth 5 google searches in terms of energy. It's now much more accurate to say it's worth 5/6ths of a search. Same goes for Meta's AI feature in WhatsApp. Very in your face.

One of my favourite AI image outputs so far. Farage does love his foscii fuels!

OpenAI's new gpt-4o image generator/editor is very good. I put in my bluesky profile pic and asked for a Dragonball Z version of it and here's the output!

What low carbon heating is best suited for your area? We've just published our updated heat pump (HP) suitability map for Britain. We calculate a suitability score for different low carbon options such as air source HPs, heat networks and shared ground loops. heatpumpsuitability.dap-tools.uk

What type of heat pump is your area suited to? We've launched our new and improved heat pump suitability map for small areas in Britain today. It estimates suitability for different types of clean heat - including air source HPs, heat networks, shared ground loops heatpumpsuitability.dap-tools.uk

Recently heard a funny anecdote on LLM training on the Fridman podcast. Essentially they saw a huge loss spike when training over a subreddit called microwavegang. On this forum they just post long sequences of the letter m. Turns out that a model that is trained to produce normal text isn't a fan.

We've written up the main findings from HeatpumpMonitor.org so far here docs.openenergymonitor.org/heatpumpmoni..., presenting this tomorrow at the DESNZ/IEA heatpump research seminar 🤓

Love this plot. CCC now don't think that the governments target set by Johnson is feasible given where we are on numerous fronts (e.g. supply chain capacity). Also depicts how we'll have to rapidly accelerate the installation rate and hit a higher peak compared to the previous Carbon Budget.

Fresh out the CCC oven – the Seventh Carbon Budget sets out a new trajectory for heat pumps. The new Balanced Pathway pushes back heat pump installations into the 30s – more realistic given current progress, but still ambitious.

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A couple of things struck me whilst reading this blog. One was around how few ground source heat pumps are in the CCC's pathway and the other was the steep increase in heat pump installation rate. It quadruples from ~300k installs per year in 2029 to 1.2 million installs per year in 2033.

I've got a new Nesta blog up: What does the Seventh Carbon Budget tell us about decarbonising home heating? I've made* a load of charts for it too... (*ok, actually mainly stolen them from the CCC) www.nesta.org.uk/blog/the-sev...

OK, time to pull out some of the key seventh carbon budget charts, with a focus on heat... www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...

this is a really fascinating and thoughtful piece about how to counter misinformation. @sheencr.bsky.social and @martinmckee.bsky.social might be interested!

Fantastic educational video by @karpathy.bsky.social on LLMs which brings you right up to the cutting edge around RL and the emergent properties. Would recommend to anyone who is interested in getting a high level overview of an LLMs pipeline. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xTG...

Basically what Altman is saying here with "the last non chain of thought model" means scaling performance on training data has not produced the fruits that they were expecting and has hit a plateau. It is notable that they aren't calling Orion GPT-5. (1/2)

Fantastic "Deep Dive into LLMs" video by @karpathy.bsky.social, a high-level but detailed explainer of how LLMs are trained and fine-tuned, and what they subsequently are good and bad at. Highly recommended for technical and not-super-technical audiences alike. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xTG...

Really curious to try Deep Research out on a good use case, this suggests that it can produce content akin to a first year PhD student which would already be really impressive.

Very interesting article on Mistral and its' place within the global AI ecosystem. I really do hope that we have a frontier LLM company in Europe, with big tech in US going full MAGA and the inevitable influence of CCP on their companies I think it is almost a necessity. www.ft.com/content/fa8b...

Encouraging heat pump adoption needs data-crunching, research and policy analysis - but listening, experiencing and taking part has an important role too. We spent time with engineers to get to grips with the reality of the clean heat transition: www.nesta.org.uk/blog/we-went...

What questions do you have about heat pumps? My wonderful data scientist colleagues @nestauk.bsky.social have been analysing data from online forums to find the most frequently asked questions, and have tried to answer them here www.nesta.org.uk/report/what-...

🚨 Publication alert 🚨 We collected heat pump related forum posts from homeowners on Money Saving Expert and analysed this data to identify frequently asked question. www.nesta.org.uk/report/what-... (1/5)

As it's a quiet Friday for many and you might have some time to spare, I recently wrote a piece covering the topic of evaluating LLM applications and the different methodologies used! medium.com/data-analyti...

At Nesta, we’ve been exploring how generative AI could improve installers confidence and save them time whilst on the job. The problem is that often Installers run into long waiting times whilst waiting for a manufacturers technical helpline or a colleague to answer. (1/7)

💡 Last autumn, @helloaidank.bsky.social had a spark of an idea: a gen AI chatbot to support heat pump installations. Fast forward, and it’s amazing to see how that idea has grown into an actual feature on a real-world platform. Excited to see what's next! 🚀 www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...

Fascinating idea, this project is in an early stage, but I think it's got lots of potential to be very useful

How could generative AI change the heat pump skills sector? One challenge installers face is accessing quick, reliable support. Enter Installer Pal—a generative AI chatbot that instantly answers questions by drawing from over 30 heat pump resources. Try it out here www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...