Happy New Year!

I think a fundamental problem Dems have right now is that currently none of their leaders have any agency.

I could very plausibly imagine VA Dems aiming for a map like the below, which puts 9 seats pretty firmly in the Dem column.

I really like this.

This revised map is more secure, and is unambiguously VRA compliant.

It’s clearly better than nothing but still… can’t say I’m not a bit disappointed.

The congressional map I would draw if I were the California Democrats.

I’m a sicko in that I unironically like CA’s vote counting.

It’s everything I ever dreamed of.

It would be hilarious if Joni Ernst somehow put Iowa Senate in play through a series of entirely preventable gaffes. Generically you’d expect that an incumbent in an R+11 state should be safe no matter the national environment but the ingredients are there for the seat to theoretically be in play.

The three Dems dropping dead was bad but not actually pivotal in anything. Under a realistic gerrymander of New York however (see below), Dems would’ve had three more seats, and thus the house majority.

Nope, the GOP could still have done it. The real problem is that that democrats in NY spent all of 2022 and 2024 going "Ooooh but crime tho" and not shoving through a gerrymander.

So Bluesky added emoji reacts?

Matthew!

We are so fucking fucked

I would be more inclined to migrate over to Bluesky if SpecialPuppy were on here.

Two Republican senators told me tonight this vote shows they can execute the same strategy again — cut Democrats out of the negotiations on a gov’t funding bill, pass it thru the House, and expect Senate Dems to back down and not filibuster it. “We liked it over here,” one said.

Schumer must go at this point. It is one of the only ways Senate Dems can possibly regain credibility.

Holy shit Pelosi.

Trump is already underwater and Elon is ridiculously underwater. Important context to keep in mind when considering the CR vote.

Schumer has got to go.

If the CR ends up passing, which is looking increasingly likely, Schumer needs to go.

If the House GOP CR passes, all Dems involved on the senate side, including leadership, should be primaried. Allowing this CR to pass would be so unbelievably bad.

Dems should be willing to force the GOP to nuke the filibuster in order to protect Elon/DOGE. I do not believe they are willing to do this.

T-19

Wow, your reckless decision to drive drunk killed your family in addition to mine? I feel soooooo sorry for you. Do you want a hug?

In tonight’s special election, we see some early evidence of thermostatic backlash to the new Trump Administration.

The reason why I am very pessimistic about Congress providing any kind of check on Trump over the next four years is that unless they can credibly threaten to impose consequences on Trump (they can’t) the best they can do is Susan Collins-style finger wagging. t.co/QQ8bmOGNRu

I am still absolutely fucking pissed off at Hillary for blowing one of the easier elections of my lifetime.

As abhorrent as I find the whole DOGE thing, my suspicion is that voters aren’t really going to care until highly salient and essential systems that voters regularly use start collapsing because of the cuts.

He may be permanently gutting state capacity but at least he’s also enacting policies that will very saliently hurt voters.

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One might get mad at Congressional Dems for a lack of a coherent opposition strategy at this but frankly there is almost nothing they can do to stop Trump, and it isn’t really clear what better messaging would accomplish.

The voters invited the murderer into their house. Once he was in, there was not much they could do to stop him.

It’s fun to note that 2024 was the 4th consecutive cycle in which GA Dems gained in the state house. Even more fun: by my math, the Dem tipping point (HD44) voted Trump +8.8 (R+6.6 vs state; R+7.3 vs nation). In 2020, the analogous seat (HD-46) was Trump +9.9 (R+10.1; R+14.4).

This is so stupid.

This is terrifying.

So North Carolina Republicans are entertaining the possibility of stealing an election? Pretty bleak.

Bob Casey losing to Dave McCormick is going to be a huge pain for Dems for years to come.

Fair VA Senate

Happy New Year!

My downstate held up pretty well.

Oregon if it had a California-style Citizens’ Redistricting Commission.

I am so excited for the eventual Trump-Elon divorce.

It’s very easy to draw a good Colorado map and the Colorado commission drew the worst possible map in just about every way.

Merry Christmas from the uniparty.

POV: you are Bob Casey

If only we had more California Commission-style maps in blue states.

Fair Illinois