#AFL Round 9 team ratings 📊📈 Similarly to last season, the Dons are banking wins, but the model is not impressed - will they play finals?

#AFL Round 9 model tips 🤖 Pies by 13, with a 63% chance of victory 🥧 Blues by 5, 55% 🔵 Hawks by 23, 74% 🟤 Swans by 1, 50% 🦢 Dogs by 13, 64% 🐶 Crows by 17, 68% 🐦 Tigers by 16, 67% 🐯 Cats by 21, 72% 🐱 Lions by 36, 85% 🦁 Tips: 52 MAE: 28.7 Bits: 13.8

#AFL Round 8 team quadrants 🙏🙂 😭😐 The Suns have some concerns heading into a big matchup this week with the Dogs

#AFL Round 8 team ratings 📊📈 After last week's belting, the Saints & Dockers swap spots in the rankings 🔄

#AFL Round 8 model tips 🤖 Dons by 20, with a 71% chance of victory ✈️ Freo by 3, 51% ⚓ Dogs by 33, 83% 🐶 Crows by 7, 57% 🐦 Pies by 16, 67% 🥧 Dees by 3, 52% 👿 Giants by 2, 50% 🟠 Hawks by 37, 85% 🟤 Lions by 1, 50% 🦁 Tips: 46 MAE: 28.1 Bits: 12.2

#AFL Round 7 team quadrants 🙏🙂 😭😐 Which of the Cats, Hawks, Giants or Swans should have the most concern?

#AFL Round 7 team ratings 📊📈 Similarly to last season, the Dogs make a decisive move up 🐶

#AFL Round 7 model tips 🤖 Dees by 12, with a 63% chance of victory 👿 Pies by 24, 76% 🥧 Freo by 18, 70% ⚓ Lions by 3, 52% 🦁 Power by 41, 88% ⚡ Dogs by 5, 54% 🐶 Suns by 15, 66% ☀️ Cats by 6, 55% 🐱 Hawks by 52, 92% 🟤 Tips: 38 MAE: 29.6 Bits: 8.7

#AFL Round 6 team quadrants 🙏🙂 😭😐 Lots of joy & despair to go around, but very little hope after roughly a quarter of season

#AFL Round 6 team ratings 📊📈 After a promising start, it's been a downward trend for North Melbourne 📉

Noah Balta attacking the contest like it’s an unsuspecting man outside a pub #AFLTigersSuns

#AFL Round 6 model tips 🤖 Lions by 7, with a 57% chance of victory 🦁 Blues by 26, 77% 🔵 Dons by 12, 63% ✈️ Freo by 8, 58% ⚓ Crows by 9, 59% 🐦 Suns by 27, 78% ☀️ Swans by 14, 65% 🦢 Dogs by 7, 56% 🐶 Cats by 2, 50% 🐱

#AFL Round 5 team quadrants 🙏🙂 😭😐 The 2025 season debut for this chart that typically stirs up a lot of debate What feels right or wrong?

#AFL Round 5 team ratings 📊📈 Hawthorn's Sunday night loss to the Power could have been a lot worse, but it still sees them slip from 1st to 4th 📉 It looks like another season of weird ratings - the bottom 3 are so bad there are 13 'above average' teams 🤷‍♂️

Well I guess he didn’t bother with it 🤷🏻‍♂️ #AFLPowerHawks

#AFL Round 5 model tips 🤖 Crows by 10, with a 60% chance of victory 🐦 Pies by 5, 52% 🥧 Suns by 32, 82% ☀️ Blues by 30, 81% 🔵 Lions by 3, 51% 🦁 Dons by 9, 59% ✈️ Freo by 18, 69% ⚓ Saints by 0, 50% 😇 Hawks by 4, 52% 🟤

#AFL Round 4 team ratings 📊📈 ⬆️ Pies ⬇️ Dees

#AFL Round 4 model tips 🤖 Pies by 7, with a 57% chance of victory 🥧 Cats by 36, 85% 🐱 Suns by 15, 66% ☀️ Lions by 25, 77% 🦁 Swans by 9, 59% 🦢 Giants by 39, 87% 🟠 Power by 9, 59% ⚡ Freo by 7, 56% ⚓

#AFL Round 3 team ratings 📊📈 Looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2024 campaign, the Dees have slid into the bottom 4 📉

#AFL Round 3 model tips 🤖 Dons by 3, with a 52% chance of victory ✈️ Dogs by 5, 54% 🐶 Suns by 6, 55% ☀️ Saints by 16, 67% 😇 Lions by 16, 67% 🦁 Hawks by 16, 67% 🟤 Crows by 34, 84% 🐦 Freo by 19, 70% ⚓

New blog post - Visualising how each 2025 AFLM squad was assembled credittodubois.com/blog/homegro...

#AFL Round 2 team ratings 📊📈 The Dockers are 0-2 & ranked 13th - will they play finish in 2025?

#AFL Round 2 model tips 🤖 Hawks by 12, with a 63% chance of victory 🟤 Dogs by 5, 54% 🐶 Dons by 8, 58% ✈️ Power by 30, 80% ⚡ Cats by 10, 60% 🐱 Lions by 56, 94% 🦁 Dees by 16, 67% 👿 Freo by 16, 67% ⚓

Round 1 #AFL team ratings 📊📈 The reigning premiers sit atop the rankings after all teams have played a match in 2025 🦁

AFL Round 1 model tips 🤖 Blues by 15, with a 65% chance of victory 🔵 Hawks by 21, 71% 🟤 Cats by 21, 72% 🐱 Lions by 7, 56% 🦁 Dogs by 41, 87% 🐶 Pies by 5, 54% 🥧 Crows by 12, 62% 🐦 Dees by 5, 54% 👿 Suns by 0, 50% ☀️

Round 0 AFL team ratings 📊📈 Reposting this as I just found a fairly significant bug in my code affecting regressing team ratings to the mean at the end of the season 😬

How good is Crazy Frog after a goal 🐸 #AFLGiantsPies

Opening Drown

IF you're an absolute fuckwit in one way THEN it's probably not just in one way

Analytics is changing how clubs assess individual performance. But what about collective performances? I spoke with "Darcy" about the Monday review, how stats can lie, Champion Data, and whether AI is coming for us all. New on One Percenters: www.onepercenters.net.au/p/the-proces...

The AFL & footy gods are trolling the modellers at this point: - Opening Round introduced - 2 Opening Round games postponed - Suns-Dons now doesn't belong to a round, and will likely get its own round or be squeezed into an existing round somehow 😵‍💫

Here's a sneaky lil season preview with some pretty charts and (I think) good reasonable opinions www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03...

AFL Round 0 model tips 🤖 Hawks by 4, with a 52% chance of victory 🟤 Giants by 6, 55% 🟠 For the postponed games, it would have been: Lions by 14, 64% 🦁 Suns by 17, 67% ☀️

Round -1 AFL team ratings 📊📈 These ratings don't use any preseason data, they're the final 2024 ratings for each team regressed to the mean

Playing around with ways to display how a premiership side comes together over time

Just your gentle, annual reminder that apparent form and results in the AFL pre-season historically have zero predictive value for the competition proper. Enjoy the games, but don't sweat the results.