Here are some frames from the animation. The first is at 1% resolution of the original, the last is 100%. Kinda cool. #Rstats #dataviz

Having some fun recreating images in ggplot with the help of magick. This was made with geom_ribbon and stitched together with magick::image_animate. #Rstats #dataviz

I may regret asking this question, but should I watch #TheTraitorsUS, and is it worthwhile collating the data?

Here are all the prior connections between the #Survivor50 players based on the number of votes with another player. The strongest - Mike and Angelina Only Coach, Devens, and Jenna have not voted with someone else.

{survivoR} has been updated on CRAN with complete Season 49 data and updated Season 50 cast. Any issues, let me know. Otherwise, it's a good time for pre-S50 analysis. #Survivor #Rstats gradientdescending.com/survivor-49-...

The game is working, but my opponent could use a few more hours of training! #Rstats

#Survivor 50 cast timeline. No new information here, just that I find it wild that there are 3 winners from the New Era and none from the Classic Era. I also just like this chart.

#Survivor 50 has the most experienced cast out of the 6 all returnee seasons based on total rounds survived, but the second most experienced based on avg rounds survived, behind WaW and close to HvV. A round is the time until a player leaves the game i.e. voted out, etc.

Genevieve has the highest average episode rating out of the season 50 cast. This is more intersting that informative! #Survivor

Honestly, I resisted doing this at the start of the season. I thought anyone who refers to themself as 'Riz God' is going to have to earn it. Consider it earned! #Survivor

#Survivor49 data is now up on Git and ready to download. 🔗 github.com/doehm/surviv... There are just a few minor things I'm waiting on and will officially release the new version in a few days. But still good to use now 👍

The good news for #Survivor 50 is that mostly returnee seasons (including fan v favs) tend to rate more highly than mostly newbie seasons. IMDb ratings: • Mostly returnee: 7.9 • Mostly newbie: 7.5 A statistically significant amount

Where does #Survivor49 rank according to IMDb ratings? Err, not high. New Era seasons are highlighted with a ⭐. 0𝟷. 𝚂𝟹𝟷 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟺𝟸 0𝟸. 𝚂𝟺0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟹𝟺 0𝟹. 𝚂0𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟼 0𝟺. 𝚂𝟸0 | 🟩 𝟾.𝟸𝟹 0𝟻. 𝚂𝟸𝟾 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟽 0𝟼. 𝚂𝟹𝟽 | 🟩 𝟾.0𝟺 0𝟽. 𝚂𝟺𝟽 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟿 ⭐ 0𝟾. 𝚂𝟷0 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽 0𝟿. 𝚂𝟹𝟺 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿𝟽 𝟷0. 𝚂𝟹𝟹 | 🟨 𝟽.𝟿0 1/

#Survivor49 final jury votes What's interesting about this season is 6/8 jurors didn't vote for the person they voted with the most. Typically, we expect 2-3. Most of them away from Sage to Savannah or Sophi. It's a credit to Savannah's game. I'm glad Sage still got Jawan's vote though.

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour Savannah has the 2nd highest CPH for a winner in the New Era! 1. Yam Yam 7.2 2. Savannah 5.4 👈 3. Rachel 5.3 4. Kyle 5.2 5. Kenzie 4.7 6. Dee 4.5 7. Gabler 3.8 8. Maryanne 3.8 9. Erika 3.4

Last charts before the finale. The estimated probability of winning at the final 5 and the final 3. Read this as: • Savannah is the overall favourite • Savannah has a better chance than Sage of making the FTC • If Sage does make the FTC, she has the edge #Survivor * based on the data only

Yes, Savannah is very good at endurance based challenges. But all New Era seasons have had a puzzle in the final 5 immunity challenge. Levels the playing field a little. So, if Savannah doesn't win, who does, and what happens at tribal council? #Survivor

𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has now won 4 individual challenges: - Only 8 women have won 4 or more ICs. Kelly (S1), Kim (S24), Chrissy (S35) have won 5. - However, 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 has won 3 endurance challenges, matching the women's record with Parv (S20) and Kim (S24) #Survivor #Survivor49

#Survivor49 vote network Final vote network for this season. Sophi and Rizo have voted with each other 7 times, which would have included Savannah if her vote wasn't blocked. This is the most out of any alliance in the new era at the final 5.

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour No one is going to take Savannah's top spot, but worth noting the steady decline in the difference between observed and expected. #Survivor

#Survivor49 votes with the jury While it was a surprising move, 𝗥𝗶𝘇𝗼 and 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 were blindsided, and 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 owned the move. She also stacked the jury in her favour. Not to mention Sophi fumbling the KIP. Out of the 10 possible jury configurations, 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 wins 5. This could work out for her. 1/

As I understand it, there have only been 4 tribal councils where there have been 3 or more advantages played. Maybe we'll see the 5th tonight. (I'm counting the 3 Amulet play in 47 as 1) #Survivor

The way I read this is, if Steven and Kristina are on the jury, Sage will get their votes. Savannah, Rizo, and Sohpi shouldn't be trying to sit next to each other at the end, but rather get their vote at the FTC. #Survivor49

#Survivor confessionals per hour Despite having a few quieter episodes, Savannah still has the largest difference (+1.5), followed by Steven (+0.7) and Sage (+0.7). Steven picked up heaps due to going on the journey and winning the advantage.

This is how I concentrate 🤘 At the start of the year I wouldn't have thought Cryptopsy would be my most listened to band, but there's something I love about that album. Although, my number 1 song has to be Rivers of Nihil - House of light. So good. #YouTube #heavymetal

#Survivor49 votes with the Jury At this point, 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 is in the most favourable position with the Jury with the highest number of expected votes from the jury (white stars, according to the numbers). If she gets to the FTC with Rizo and Savannah, I think 𝑆𝑎𝑔𝑒 wins. #Survivor

Tree is up. Countdown begins 🎄

I also have a very simple model to predict how many jury votes the finalist will receive based on votes with and votes for the juror. It has been correct for 6 out of 8 New Era seasons. I'll run this just before the S49 finale, simulating all jury configurations. #Survivor

Is it possible Rizo made a fake idol and intended to play it like it was his real one, act surprised when it's called out as fake to try to fool people into thinking he actually doesn't have a real idol? If so, he did a terrible job of it! #survivor

#Survivor49 network That trio definitely looks powerful! I'm looking forward to Sophi playing her KIP, taking Rizo's idol, playing for Sage, and sending Savannah or Rizo to the jury. It's in the trio's best interest not to sit next to each other at the end, so let's see what happens.

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour What's interesting is Sage still has the 2nd highest difference between observed and expected after Savannah, and that's more important the Sophi and Rizo having a slightly higher cph in terms of chances of winning

#Survivor49 votes with the jury This is one of my favourite charts. A juror is 1.6x more likely to vote for the finalist they voted with the most - their main alliance. This shows who has voted with whom and who may get their vote. Another data point to infer the position of the remaining players

#Survivor49 Predictions With Jawan gone, it's really put Sage in a less favourable position. The top 3 are now: 🔴 Savannah 🔵 Sophi and 🔴 Rizo with Savannah increasing her chances to 1-in-3! If Savannah doesn't make it to the end, eyes on Sophi. #Survivor

My favourite part was how Andy remembered that he forgot to reply to my email! I also defended his 6.25%!

The chances of surviving subsequent Tribal Councils decrease after winning back-to-back IICs. This means Savannah has a 75%, 65%, and 44% chance of surviving the next 1, 2, and 3 tribal councils unprotected - ~10% points lower than equal chance, a clear decrease. 1/ #Survivor

While the gt() website has a fantastic documentation, just a reminder that @albertrapp.bsky.social ebook on gt() is the best collection of tools and trainings to help you master this awesome package gt.albert-rapp.de

- 23 players have played an idol successfully for themselves after merge (changing the outcome of the tribal) - 6 went on to win the game - 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol - 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47) #Survivor

#Survivor49 predictions Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win. It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here. #Survivor

#Survivor49 vote network There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal. 1/3

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0. Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.

This guy makes me want to be a professional jazz musician who has never listened to Tool and then listens to Tool for the first time #tool www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYoT...

Here's a short history of the Bank Your Vote advantage, some stats, and a controversial idea. The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49. 🧵 1/ #Survivor #Survivor49

I've made a change to the challenge_results table to make it easier to handle challenges with multiple win criteria. There's now a column for each challenge and outcome type. The column 'won' is 1 if any of the win criteria are met. Now on Git 👍 #survivor #Rstats

Thanks Josh and Bryan for inviting me on, it was a fun chat! Happy to answer any clarifying questions about these predictions if anyone is interested. #Survivor

#Survivor49 Predictions Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.

Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game. Total votes with others: 1. Jawan 20 2. Sophi 20 3. Rizo 15 4. Alex 14 5. Savannah 12 6. Sage 11 7. Sophie 9 8. Steven 8 9. Kristina 6 #Survivor49

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour Top 10 at ep 8: 1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆 2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣ 3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈 4. Q 1.7x 5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈 6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆 7. Carson 1.5x 8. Katurah 1.4x 9. Emily 1.4x 10. Evvie 1.4x The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.

#Survivor49 Chances of winning Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan. It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space. #Survivor

With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30. Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to: 1. S16 (27.3) 2. S36 (27.8) 3. S15 (27.9) 4. S6 (29.6) 5. S49 (29.7) #Survivor49

TIL you can turn off the `summarise()` has grouped output by... message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍 #Rstats