While the gt() website has a fantastic documentation, just a reminder that @albertrapp.bsky.social ebook on gt() is the best collection of tools and trainings to help you master this awesome package gt.albert-rapp.de

- 23 players have played an idol successfully for themselves after merge (changing the outcome of the tribal) - 6 went on to win the game - 4 of those players won at least one IIC after playing the idol - 2 won all IICs after playing the idol (Mike S30, Rachel S47) #Survivor

#Survivor49 predictions Savannah has edged further ahead, followed by Jawan and Sage. If Sage and Jawan manage to send Savannah to the Jury, I think one of them will win. It's hard to see how Steven, Kristina, or Sophie can win from here. #Survivor

#Survivor49 vote network There's a clear standout group here. I expect it's a matter of which Uli duo convinces Hina to vote with them at the next tribal, and how the advantages get used. Could be a big tribal. 1/3

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour Savannah has a difference between obs and exp of +2.3 followed by Sophi (+0.6), Sage (+0.5). All OG Hina are below 0. Rizo has a difference of 0 which suggests he's not going to go all the way. There's a story here, but explained with the predictions.

This guy makes me want to be a professional jazz musician who has never listened to Tool and then listens to Tool for the first time #tool www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYoT...

Here's a short history of the Bank Your Vote advantage, some stats, and a controversial idea. The Bank Your Vote advantage has only appeared 3 times - S35, S44, and most recently S49. 🧵 1/ #Survivor #Survivor49

I've made a change to the challenge_results table to make it easier to handle challenges with multiple win criteria. There's now a column for each challenge and outcome type. The column 'won' is 1 if any of the win criteria are met. Now on Git 👍 #survivor #Rstats

Thanks Josh and Bryan for inviting me on, it was a fun chat! Happy to answer any clarifying questions about these predictions if anyone is interested. #Survivor

#Survivor49 Predictions Ep 8 was very good for Savannah—winning immunity, bagging an advantage, and getting a lot of screen time put her at the top of the leaderboard with a 1-in-5 chance of winning.

Jawan is actually in a pretty good position. The total number of votes with other players is a good indicator of making it deep in the game. Total votes with others: 1. Jawan 20 2. Sophi 20 3. Rizo 15 4. Alex 14 5. Savannah 12 6. Sage 11 7. Sophie 9 8. Steven 8 9. Kristina 6 #Survivor49

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour Top 10 at ep 8: 1. Yam Yam 2.4x 🏆 2. Savannah 1.9x 4️⃣9️⃣ 3. Carolyn 1.8x 🥈 4. Q 1.7x 5. Charlie 1.6x 🥈 6. Kenzie 1.5x 🏆 7. Carson 1.5x 8. Katurah 1.4x 9. Emily 1.4x 10. Evvie 1.4x The number means X times more than expected. Only Savannah is in the top 10.

#Survivor49 Chances of winning Here are the estimated chances of winning for each player in the F10. Sage is in the top spot, followed by Alex and Jawan. It's early days, and anything can happen, so watch this space. #Survivor

With Nate gone the oldest players in the game are Kristina and Steven (35) and the average age has dropped below 30. Not the youngest group at this stage of the game. That goes to: 1. S16 (27.3) 2. S36 (27.8) 3. S15 (27.9) 4. S6 (29.6) 5. S49 (29.7) #Survivor49

TIL you can turn off the `summarise()` has grouped output by... message when using dplyr::summarise by running options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE) 👍 #Rstats

Did Alex and Sophi split their vote, or just not vote together? I wasn't paying attention. Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo were all on the wrong side of the vote. Historically, this means their chances of winning tank - about 75% lower than players on the right side. They have work to do. #Survivor49

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour Top 10: 1. Yam Yam - 7 🏆 2. Carolyn - 6.4 🥈 3. Shan - 6.3 4. Savannah - 6.2 4️⃣9️⃣ 5. Alex - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣ 6. Sophi - 5.6 4️⃣9️⃣ 7. Cody - 5.1 8. Emily - 5.1 9. Kenzie - 5 🏆 10. Sam - 5 🥈 There's a good chance one of those win and another makes the final. #Survivor

If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it. #Survivor49

I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened. #Survivor49 (quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))

MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal. #Survivor49

Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record. Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record. It's an interesting pattern though. #Survivor49 #dataviz

The illustrious Rio Teixeira — artist behind many of your favorite #Survivor projects (including #FUPASU) — joined us to chat Sage v Shannon, galaxy brain knowledge is power ideas, & more! 🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com 🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK... 🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f... #survivor49

I hate to break it to Jeff, but 3 tribes increases the places to hide and suppresses gameplay. A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once. #Survivor

#Survivor49 who has voted with who This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week

#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour Top 10 at e6: 1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆 2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐ 3. Savannah 2.1x 4. Emily 1.8x 5. Kaleb 1.7x 6. Carson 1.7x 7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆 8. Q 1.6x 9. Jesse 1.6x 10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐ Key: 🏆 Winner ⭐ Finalist Nx more CPH than expected

How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge? Turns out, massively important! I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵 #Survivor #Survivor49

In case anyone was wondering, if Kele farm the chicken eggs, bring the chickens to merge and agree to eat them at f5, then a Kele member in the f5 will consume 778 more calories than simply eating one chicken per day and sharing with the tribe from the time they were won 🥚🥚🥚 #Survivor49

#Survivor49 confessionals per hr (CPH) Top 10: 1. Yam Yam 2.7x 🏆 2. Carolyn 2.4x ⭐ 3. Savannah 2.4x 👈👀👈 4. Emily 1.9x 5. Kenzie 1.7x 🏆 6. Charlie 1.7x ⭐ 7. Jesse 1.7x 8. Sam 1.6x ⭐ 9. Sai 1.6x 10. Elie 1.6x Key: 🏆 Winner ⭐ Finalist Nx more CPH than expected

Today's #Survivor rabbit hole After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out: 1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote). 2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵

@robsfactchecker.bsky.social was kind enough to share his polling data with me to test a couple of hypotheses: 1. A player gets more 'Love' with more confessionals and 2. Star is the most loved player, accounting for confessionals But there was one other thing that stood out 🧵 #Survivor

#Survivor49 confessionals per hour Savannah and Sophi are the outliers in the pre-merge game. Probably post-merge as well. #Survivor

survivoR 2.3.8 is now up with a few data fixes. Next release will be once #survivor49 has wrapped up. #Survivor #Rstats github.com/doehm/survivoR

#Survivor49 Confessionals/hr After the merge we'll see who stands out in Hina and Uli (other than Rizo) #Survivor

#Survivor49 confessionals/hr Savannah has 2.2x more than expected, the 7th highest at this point in the new era. Above her is a winner, a runner-up up and two 4th-place finishers 1. Aysha 2.8x 2. Charlie 2.5x 3. Carson 2.3x 4. Yam Yam 2.3x 5. Jesse 2.2x 6. David 2.2x 7. Savannah 2.2x

#Survivor49 Confessionals/hr - why are Rizo and The Kele tribe (almost) all near the top? - Rizo and Alex competed in the fight for supplies challenge - Rizo won and provided for his tribe - Kele lost and went to tribal Also, Rizo has the 5th highest cph after e1 in the new era

The confessional timing app is good to go for #Survivor49. It's borderline impossible for me to do this these days, so if you use it, let me know.

I've pulled together a table of career rounds played - a round is essentially a tribal council. If I've done this right Parvati is killing it. 5 seasons 81 rounds in total 66 rounds survived 2 rounds not survived (voted out) 3 Final tribal councils 10 rounds in limbo (EoE) 🧵 #Survivor

#SurvivorAU v The World was a fantastic season, and according to the mean IMDb rating it is the best out of all AU and US seasons. 🥇 AU S11 Aus v The World (9.0) 🥈 AU S09 Titans v Rebels (8.7) 🥉 AU S10 Brains v Brawn II (8.7) Take IMDb ratings with a grain of salt, though. Few more stats in the 🧵

I only recently heard about the #Survivor Margarita curse - the person who wins the Margarita at the Survivor Auction gets booted that episode. It's happened the last 4 times. 🤯 However, it has never happened in #SurvivorAU. Therefore, the only rational explanation is Probsty curses the Margarita

Good news for those in the incredibly niche intersection of #Rstats users and #Survivor fans - Aus v The World is now complete. Available on Git and CRAN 👍 Also available as xlsx or json. 💾 github.com/doehm/survivoR

Survival curves for #Alone season 12. It's hard to survive in the desert. This is the shortest season by a long way! Nathan won in 34 days. The second shortest season was S1 where Alan Kay won in 56 days. 6 tapped for health reasons, 3 for personal reasons #rstats #dataviz 💾 github.com/doehm/alone

#AlienEarth is very good, and have to give special mention to the episode end credits song choices: 1. Black Sabbath - The Mob Rules 2. Tool - Stinkfist 3. Metallica - Wherever I May Roam 4. Jane's Addiction - Ocean Size 5. Smashing Pumpkins - Cherub Rock So good! youtu.be/_QIm5dwd6ME?...

I've been listening to a lot of the latest Deftones album recently. Inspired to make a colour palette from the album cover. (made with eyedroppeR) #Rstats #dataviz

Finally, the model also says the odds are in Parv's favour. Probability of winning: 53% Parvati 23% Luke 13% Janine 12% Cirie #SurvivorAU

Granted this is not a standard season, but I imagine it's going to be between Luke and Parv, but Parv has the highest favourability with the jury #SurvivorAU

Final confessionals per hour (CPH) for Aus v The World. Parv is the only player above expectation. Luke is about even stevens. Janine is on 1.7. Out of the US and AU seasons, there have only been 3 winners with a lower CPH - Chris (US38), Natalie (US19), Liz (AU08) #survivor #SurvivorAU

Just sayin' #SurvivorAU

Do confessionals matter? As in, do they help us glean insight into who may win the season? The relationship is pretty clear actually - The higher the number of confessionals per hr, the higher the chance of winning. In which case, Parvati is looking good. #Survivor #SurvivorAU

I'd love to see a season where a shoe was a genuine idol. It would be complete chaos from that point on. You wouldn't know what's an idol shoe or fake shoe. There would probably be mass burning of shoes. #SurvivorAU

Crack the Skye is my favourite album of all time. Gave it a few spins today. RIP Brent Hinds.