Buying speculative names is a poor tactic and is apt to lag badly over a market cycle. Ex: Unprofitable Tech stagnated till 2020, soared 350% in the frothy '21 market, then sank to zero and stagnated for several yrs. In 2025, amid AI hype, it surged again (+143%) only to drop on the adverse AI news

Last decade's perennial bearishness toward U.S. Treasuries has continued in the 2020s. In fact, bond bears have grown even more emboldened the last few years, pushing net short positions to new extremes. #Treasuries #BondBears

Cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron

During the 2010s, the Copper/Gold ratio served as an effective gauge for economic trends and a dependable predictor of bond yield movements. However, since 2020, this relationship has broken down, as interest rates have become less correlated with business cycles. $GLD #MarketTrends

Last week's slight edge of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 over the Cap-Weighted index revived the short-term trend since November lows, boosting optimism among active managers. Yet, 2025 is set to be another tough year for the EW $SPX. #StockMarket #Investing

2010s vs 2020s: Term Premium usually tracks inflation outlooks; since 2020 it has repriced a new reality. Added to a worsened U.S. fiscal state & less foreign appetite, it appears the secular bond bull likely ended in 2020; probably one of the defining features of this decade. #Inflation

Inflation 2010s vs. 2020s: Last decade, U.S. CPI > Fed’s 2% target ~40% of the time; Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index was higher than thought ~12% of the time. Since 2020, CPI >2% a stunning 83% of the time and ISI has been higher 59% of the time. #Inflation

Last week $RUT and DJ Composite each rang a new high. Excellent action in Dow Transports (still 1-yr removed from its own all-time high) boosted the DJ Comp. A few more highs across these bellwethers soon, would go a long way alleviate our Technical anxiety. (Four of which are <1% away.)

Vastly superior performance of U.S. assets in the 2010s might have seemed impossible to repeat, but U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well this decade. 2020 to date, U.S. stocks +15.9% annl vs DM (+9.5%) and EM (+7.8%). U.S. bonds also ahead of global peers by 120 bps annually #InvestingTrends

YTD composite earnings suggest widespread prosperity, lifting $SPX T12-mo EPS by 13.8%. But this growth has been as concentrated as the market's mega-cap leadership: Tech/Comm posted combined +29% avg growth vs. other 9 sectors’ collective +5% (barely matching gain in nominal GDP).

Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA

A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity

In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall

Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter @Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing

On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing

Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy

"The stock market’s long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession," Doug Ramsey Leuthold CIO via @BW "What should we do with our money these days? These financial experts have a few ideas" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Leuthold research cited by @Investopedia: Your S&P 500 index fund might lack diversity, with Nvidia being a key factor. www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p...

Recent stock market leadership has been piloted by lower-quality and more speculative stocks. Illustrating this is the Russell 2000: Its September upsurge to a new cycle high was propelled by its UNprofitable components. $RUT #Mag7 #Stocks

We've observed some broader disagreement among long-term leaders, including the Magnificent Seven—only two have made new 52-week highs over the last month. #Mag7 #Stocks $QQQ

The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing

Notwithstanding the headlines, Margin Debt surpassing $1T is irrelevant. The real Red Flag is #MarginDebt climbing faster than $SPX. Its YoY growth in Aug was 33% vs $SPX’s 14%. The tops of Y2K, 2007 & 2021/2022 were all preceded by similar breakouts in the growth-rate gap of these two measures.

Join the chat on "Making Money with Charles Payne" as Doug Ramsey, Leuthold's CIO, delves into the economic climate. @cvpayne.bsky.social Watch at www.foxbusiness.com/video/638011... [timestamp 02:00] #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #Employment

Leuthold's Doug Ramsey thinks $SPX should be a part of the “inflation-forecasting tool kit”—in both directions. Article by @mdbaccardax.bsky.social shorturl.at/4wtXt barrons.com #InflationRisk #FederalReserve #paywall

Although this is the third up-leg in a nearly 3-yr-old bull market, outperformance of Cyclical equities vs Defensives since the April low has been markedly stronger than that of the first upswing following a recessionary bear market bottom #StockMarket #Investing

Despite not suffering the pain of a recessionary bear market, stock action since the April low looks like a post-recession acceleration. We’re in the 3rd up-leg of a cyclical bull that began at full employment, yet the rally tracks the 1st upsurge after a recessionary bear. #StockMarket #BullRun

The stock market isn't pricier than in February and appears healthier. Back then, 7 of 8 key indicators showed warnings, while only four do today. Importantly, both the NYSE Daily A/D Line and Equal Weighted S&P 500 support $SPX's movements. #StockMarket #Investing #Breadth

Next week's rate cut parallels pre-GFC actions. Like 2007, despite rising inflation, the Fed cites a housing slump and weakening labor market as reasons for the move. In '07, the cut didn't boost growth, and inflation increased. Today, economic indicators already appear bleak.

Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) shorturl.at/tIVIE is overweight Comm. Srvs. and Financials, with group concentrations from each. These sectors have held the top ranks in our work since May 2024 and complement each other well: growth, cyclical, and defensive industries are scattered across both.

Given the fundamental backdrop, we'd be stunned if a recession doesn’t break out before the end of Trump’s term. There’s also political history working against Trump. Only one #Republican term ended without the economy falling into recession (Reagan’s 2nd). tinyurl.com/4z5xp65f #Recession

With consecutive gains from May thru Aug, $SPX has defied the "Sell In May" adage this year. When this occurred in the past (albeit a small sample of 14), the index's average return was +5.3% from Sep-Dec vs. +1.9% in all other years. #MarketTrends #S&P500

Phil. Fed Bus. Outlook Survey offers an early peek at the ISM Mfg Survey. Latest data is unfavorable: New Orders fell into contraction, and Prices Paid hit levels not seen since June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1%. Current inflation pressures exceed those before the GFC.

Between April 1st and July 31st, the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 surged by +13.4%, notably exceeding the Equal-Weighted $SPX's +6.5%. This marks the third-best four-month period for Cap-Weighted upside relative to the EW index since the #Y2K tech boom. #MarketTrends #Equities

Lately, we noted a spike in the CRB Raw Ind $RIND & other commodity indices. Those seeking to hedge escalating input costs can find solid options among diversified commodity ETFs. Since the May '20 inflation trough, such ETFs have excelled over other options. Avoid TIPS; they provide little defense.

CRB Raw Ind Index ($RIND) tracks manufacturing input costs and can foretell inflation trends. By July, RIND's notable +7.3% YTD rise is mirrored by two other commodity price measures, contrasting with CPI & PPI. This is concerning, as rising input costs could hinder CPI's progress to 2% #CPI #CRB

Most bellwether indexes verified $SPX Jul-28th high but there are divergences: DJ Transports still 12% below its peak and Trucking nearly 36% lower. Vs $SPX, Baa bond spreads look as bad as the Truckers. Action of Baa's & Truckers is worse than the lead-up to the '07 pre-GFC high.

Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) employs an uncommon approach of investing through industry concentrations and equity themes using a broad multi-cap universe of stocks. LST has a 25-year track record of solid results. More at lnkd.in/gQXf58cc Leuthold distribution partner @XtolloInv

The stock market appears more promising in late summer than it did at its Feb. 19th peak. Although not cheap, it's no pricier than it was back then. S&P 500 Forward EPS, Normalized EPS, and Cash Flow have climbed alongside prices.Technically speaking, $SPX's late-July highs were broader than in Feb

NVIDIA's 13% July surge accounted for ~1/2 of S&P 500’s 2.2% rise. The semiconductor giant ended the month with an 8.1% index weight. Since 1990, no other single firm has reached a month-end wgt of that magnitude. Together, $NVDA and $MSFT match the combined weight of $SPX’s smallest 332 firms.

"With debt and deficits at current levels and going higher, the Fed will 'have to' cut rates and let inflation run hot." Leuthold's Chun Wang cited by @NickLazzaro shorturl.at/T9Ale for @SPGMarketIntel

$SPX is up 25% from Apr 8 thru Jun 30. Our earnings & cash-flow estimates keep getting better, but can’t keep pace with the swelling numerators in their ratios. The New Era’s potential downside is two ticks away from its near-term extreme (-33%) of last Nov. #MarketTrends #Stocks

With a steadily rising standard of living since 1947, U.S. workers have enjoyed improved buying power. Still, soaring equity valuations have drastically slashed stock market purchasing power. One needs to work over 218 hours to buy a single unit in $SPX. #Valuations #Wages #Investing

In June, S&P 1500's normalized P/E ratio fell below its median, implying performance near the +10% LT norm is possible for the average stock. The P/CF ratio hit the bottom decile relative to $SPX, which usually triggers a rebound in the average stock. #Investing

Just 3 out of 8 leading indicators have confirmed the new $SPX bull market peak. Uneven recoveries are not unusual, though, especially following a 19% drop. We're choosing to wait a bit before viewing the stragglers as yellow flags. $RUT #Stocks #Investing

Both the S&P 500 and NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line reached 52-week highs this month, suggesting a promising outlook for continued gains as the year wraps up. #StockMarket #Investing

June’s action again provided the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 a decent YTD lead over Equal-Weighted $SPX, but not quite to the extent of 2023 & 2024 (thus far). Equal-Wgt vs Cap-Wgt relative strength also hit a fresh 22-year low. #investing #Mag7

Pre-2020, when @ConferenceBoard Index of #LEI was in recession mode, $SPX posted -0.3% TR annlzd; the rest of the time, SPX was up 11.6%. Post-2020, LEI has become a contrary signal: Since 2020 when LEI has been in recession mode (45% of time) SPX gained 18% annlzd. #Economy