“Up” Earnings vs. “Down” for 1st mo. of Q1 reports fell from Q4's 1-mo. figure. The level is still robust relative to LT avg, but today’s expansion is maturing. Given history, it seems greedy to think the string of advances can extend much further. Lookbacks will get tougher in coming quarters.

Starting on the first day of a major oil spike, S&P 500 forward returns at 3-, 6-, and 12-months were surprisingly strong. 3- and 6-month stretches averaged ~1%/month; the 12-month return was a striking +17.6%. #Oil $XLE $XOM $CVX $CL_F $SPY

It has been rough sledding for our “4% Club” contingent over the last 4 months. Microsoft lost 24%—a $930 billion plunge in mkt cap (roughly one Berkshire Hathaway or three Coca-Colas). $MSFT ended Feb. w/ an $SPY weight of < 5% for the first time since Jan-2020. $BRK $KO

$SPY ended Feb w/ its 4th sharp decline in concentration since the mega-cap Tech run began, but the largest 5 names still comprise 28% of the index vs. the 13% combined weight of the bottom 300. Historically, pre-2020, the smallest 60% typically dwarfed the sway of the top 1%. #Mag7

Leuthold's Greg Swenson cited by @lamonicabuzz.bsky.social @barronsonline “While Transports are often discussed as a single industry, dispersion beneath the surface is elevated.” Dow Transport Index Is Sizzling. Stick With Planes, Not Trucks and Trains. shorturl.at/AnUKF #paywall (may apply) #DJT

Based on figures from both the 1926-to-date and 1957-to-date periods, S&P 500 Normalized Earnings sit in the 10th decile (most expensive) of historical valuations. Is this a "new Era" or unsustainable? #StockTrends $SPY #Valuations

Equal-Wgt $SPY had best month vs S&P 500 Top-10 Index since March 2025. The avg $SPY stock has outdone the Top 10 for 3 mos running (by 8.5%). If this is the start of a fortune reversal for smalls, there is ample runway. Since 12/21/22: S&P 500 Top 10 +186%; EW SPY +48%

A January small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly, but in the last decade, it’s mostly flopped. This year, it was in full force—until late January, when smalls gave back some gains. Still, $RUT +4% advantage over $SPY was its best January since 2023. #SmallCaps

After collapsing since 2023, the DJ Transports is suddenly on a tear, breaking to new highs and well-off R/S lows. This newfound vigor could signal broadening of stock leadership and more upside for equities overall. $DJT #StockTrends

Of the S&P 500 Growth Index’s Top 10 stocks, only two deviate from the obvious theme: Berkshire Hathaway and Lilly. An allocation to this index is an explicit bet that mega-cap Tech, AI/cloud-computing will continue to dominate in 2026. #Mag7 #GrowthStocks

S&P 500 Growth Index: Annual style-index rebalancing has further exacerbated its top-heavy concentration. Tech and Communications Services account for 65% of the total weight. If one counts "Mag 7" from Discretionary, Tech Titans account for 71% of the index. #GrowthStocks

January’s small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly. But it ain't what it used to be. In recent decades, small caps have tended to post the best relative returns in Nov. and Dec. as managers perhaps front-run the "January Effect." $RUT $SPY

After missing a Santa Claus Rally (by a whisker) a few weeks ago, another calendar anomaly is firing on all cylinders. Through last Friday, the $RUT had outperformed the S&P 500 in every trading session of 2026, leading to the largest “January Effect” (+6.5%) in recent history. $SPY #SmallCap

No "Santa Claus Rally”: The last 5 trading days of 2025 plus first 2 of ‘26 were a lump of coal. Since ‘72, $SPY returned +1.15% in this period vs. a 7-day avg of +0.19%. The results are spotty, but historically, if Santa doesn’t show up, the next year has been underwhelming. #Stocks

Relative to a barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude, $SPX has ranked among the most expensive for nearly 75% of quarters since 2020. The last time the index was this costly versus oil prices was over 25 years ago (1998 and 1999). #WTI #Oil $SPY

GS High Retail Sentiment (meme stocks) is another "exuberance group," like Unprofitable Tech and Highly Shorted indexes (but a much shorter history). It peaked sharply in 2021, quickly gave up all the gain, then drifted until this year, when it again melted up to a fresh high. #Meme #Sentiment

Most shorted R3K names plunged during pandemic, surged 219% in ‘21 euphoria, then fully retreated, ceding all gains, moving sideways for yrs. In 2025, they again joined the melt-up (+126%) into the Nov. peak, just like Unprofitable Tech index. Overall, buying speculative stocks is a losing tactic.

Based on the Manufacturing Sector's average hourly wage, one would need to work 204.4 hours to purchase a single S&P 500 unit (data through Q3-25). This lands in the 10th decile of the distribution (stocks most expensive), 1947 to date. $SPX #Wages

Buying speculative names is a poor tactic and is apt to lag badly over a market cycle. Ex: Unprofitable Tech stagnated till 2020, soared 350% in the frothy '21 market, then sank to zero and stagnated for several yrs. In 2025, amid AI hype, it surged again (+143%) only to drop on the adverse AI news

Last decade's perennial bearishness toward U.S. Treasuries has continued in the 2020s. In fact, bond bears have grown even more emboldened the last few years, pushing net short positions to new extremes. #Treasuries #BondBears

Cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron

During the 2010s, the Copper/Gold ratio served as an effective gauge for economic trends and a dependable predictor of bond yield movements. However, since 2020, this relationship has broken down, as interest rates have become less correlated with business cycles. $GLD #MarketTrends

Last week's slight edge of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 over the Cap-Weighted index revived the short-term trend since November lows, boosting optimism among active managers. Yet, 2025 is set to be another tough year for the EW $SPX. #StockMarket #Investing

2010s vs 2020s: Term Premium usually tracks inflation outlooks; since 2020 it has repriced a new reality. Added to a worsened U.S. fiscal state & less foreign appetite, it appears the secular bond bull likely ended in 2020; probably one of the defining features of this decade. #Inflation

Inflation 2010s vs. 2020s: Last decade, U.S. CPI > Fed’s 2% target ~40% of the time; Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index was higher than thought ~12% of the time. Since 2020, CPI >2% a stunning 83% of the time and ISI has been higher 59% of the time. #Inflation

Last week $RUT and DJ Composite each rang a new high. Excellent action in Dow Transports (still 1-yr removed from its own all-time high) boosted the DJ Comp. A few more highs across these bellwethers soon, would go a long way alleviate our Technical anxiety. (Four of which are <1% away.)

Vastly superior performance of U.S. assets in the 2010s might have seemed impossible to repeat, but U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well this decade. 2020 to date, U.S. stocks +15.9% annl vs DM (+9.5%) and EM (+7.8%). U.S. bonds also ahead of global peers by 120 bps annually #InvestingTrends

YTD composite earnings suggest widespread prosperity, lifting $SPX T12-mo EPS by 13.8%. But this growth has been as concentrated as the market's mega-cap leadership: Tech/Comm posted combined +29% avg growth vs. other 9 sectors’ collective +5% (barely matching gain in nominal GDP).

Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA

A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity

In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall

Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter @Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing

On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing

Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy

"The stock market’s long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession," Doug Ramsey Leuthold CIO via @BW "What should we do with our money these days? These financial experts have a few ideas" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Leuthold research cited by @Investopedia: Your S&P 500 index fund might lack diversity, with Nvidia being a key factor. www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p...

Recent stock market leadership has been piloted by lower-quality and more speculative stocks. Illustrating this is the Russell 2000: Its September upsurge to a new cycle high was propelled by its UNprofitable components. $RUT #Mag7 #Stocks

We've observed some broader disagreement among long-term leaders, including the Magnificent Seven—only two have made new 52-week highs over the last month. #Mag7 #Stocks $QQQ

The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing

Notwithstanding the headlines, Margin Debt surpassing $1T is irrelevant. The real Red Flag is #MarginDebt climbing faster than $SPX. Its YoY growth in Aug was 33% vs $SPX’s 14%. The tops of Y2K, 2007 & 2021/2022 were all preceded by similar breakouts in the growth-rate gap of these two measures.

Join the chat on "Making Money with Charles Payne" as Doug Ramsey, Leuthold's CIO, delves into the economic climate. @cvpayne.bsky.social Watch at www.foxbusiness.com/video/638011... [timestamp 02:00] #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #Employment

Leuthold's Doug Ramsey thinks $SPX should be a part of the “inflation-forecasting tool kit”—in both directions. Article by @mdbaccardax.bsky.social shorturl.at/4wtXt barrons.com #InflationRisk #FederalReserve #paywall

Although this is the third up-leg in a nearly 3-yr-old bull market, outperformance of Cyclical equities vs Defensives since the April low has been markedly stronger than that of the first upswing following a recessionary bear market bottom #StockMarket #Investing

Despite not suffering the pain of a recessionary bear market, stock action since the April low looks like a post-recession acceleration. We’re in the 3rd up-leg of a cyclical bull that began at full employment, yet the rally tracks the 1st upsurge after a recessionary bear. #StockMarket #BullRun

The stock market isn't pricier than in February and appears healthier. Back then, 7 of 8 key indicators showed warnings, while only four do today. Importantly, both the NYSE Daily A/D Line and Equal Weighted S&P 500 support $SPX's movements. #StockMarket #Investing #Breadth

Next week's rate cut parallels pre-GFC actions. Like 2007, despite rising inflation, the Fed cites a housing slump and weakening labor market as reasons for the move. In '07, the cut didn't boost growth, and inflation increased. Today, economic indicators already appear bleak.

Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) shorturl.at/tIVIE is overweight Comm. Srvs. and Financials, with group concentrations from each. These sectors have held the top ranks in our work since May 2024 and complement each other well: growth, cyclical, and defensive industries are scattered across both.

Given the fundamental backdrop, we'd be stunned if a recession doesn’t break out before the end of Trump’s term. There’s also political history working against Trump. Only one #Republican term ended without the economy falling into recession (Reagan’s 2nd). tinyurl.com/4z5xp65f #Recession

With consecutive gains from May thru Aug, $SPX has defied the "Sell In May" adage this year. When this occurred in the past (albeit a small sample of 14), the index's average return was +5.3% from Sep-Dec vs. +1.9% in all other years. #MarketTrends #S&P500

Phil. Fed Bus. Outlook Survey offers an early peek at the ISM Mfg Survey. Latest data is unfavorable: New Orders fell into contraction, and Prices Paid hit levels not seen since June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1%. Current inflation pressures exceed those before the GFC.