Even accounting for the new congressional maps, a swing like Aftyn Behn's (Trump+22 to D-8.6) would net Dems 259 seats in the midterms. Even if the swing is *half* of tonight's, Dems win the House with 229 seats Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

And we’re just about wrapped up in the Tennessee 7 with an 8.8% win for Van Epps. The latter batches from Davidson County weren’t as good as earlier returns. So, about a 13 point swing from Trump 24’. I’m curious as to exactly how many GOP-held House Districts are Trump +13 or less. Anyone know?

Still close in the Tennessee 7. At this point it’s looking unlikely that Aftyn Behn will win but it’s going to be close given how much is still outstanding in Davidson County. I’d guess a 3-4 point win for Van Epps in a Trump +21 district.

Looking at the vote breakdown by county, and doing some rough math, Aftyn Behn (D) looks like she has a shot to win the Tennessee 7 House Special Election. Wild.

Trump just hit 39.9% approval in the G. Elliot Morris poll aggregator. First time under 40% in his second term.

If you’re in the leverage business (like Senate Dems), you’re in the pain business. Imagine being, say, a labor leader and calling off a strike because you think it might be causing pain somewhere in the world. Pain is the point! Pain was the only way a gov’t shutdown could ever pay off.

Trump’s idea to kill the filibuster to reopen the government and gut the ACA seems like strategic insanity. Yes, the GOP would get the marginal benefit of ending the shutdown but then they own the bigger political problem of health care premium spikes heading into midterms.

If a democratic official had accepted a bribe I guarantee you that most voters would have heard about it. The fact that only 36% heard about Tom Homan shows you how tilted the info environment is today. This asymmetry is the main thing shaping political outcomes. Issue tweaks can’t fix this.

Will the dominant military power of the future be the one can master autonomous warfare? Or the one with the generals who can bench press the most and run the fastest 100 meter dash? Which is more relevant to the battlefield of tomorrow?

So Trump is protecting us from: 1. Tylenol 2. Vaccines 3. Bike Paths 4. Late Night Comedy 5. Employed Immigrants 6. International trade 7. Windmills Do I have that about right?

If I was trying to do fascism, I’d keep my mouth shut about the media firings. Your enemies get fired, investigated, fall out of windows, and the message is sent. You shrug. If you take credit and say it’s because your feelings were hurt, it undermines the strongman persona. You can’t be that needy.

The paradox of the current cultural environment is that you might lose your job for criticizing Charlie Kirk but just as easily lose your job for repeating the things he actually said.

andrew is right, but mainstream U.S. media is fundamentally incapable of any introspection that isn't 'we didn't pay enough attention to the right-wing's needs'

Wow. The Baltimore Ravens tried to salt that game way too early. There’s a lesson there about risk-aversion. If you’re on the cusp of winning something, don’t coast too soon. Run through the tape!

In 1500, the “white population” (Europe) was about 12% of the global population. That share rose with European settlement of the Western Hemisphere and technological advances over the next few centuries. As advances spread globally in the last century, the original pop. share was re-established.

Terrible jobs report this morning. Absent health care, jobs were negative in August. Manufacturing was -12,000. June numbers revised to -13,000.

The huge downward revisions (-258,000 jobs) are the big surprise. Trump’s tariff insanity is discouraging hiring. And yet, just three days ago our nation’s newspaper of record said that Trump was “winning” his trade war. Is this what “winning” look like to the Times?

🧵 FWIW, I don’t think Trump was running his own “Lolita Island” out of Mar-a-Lago. For starters, Virginia Giuffre said that her spa job was legitimate. Secondly, I don’t think Trump is competent enough to run a trafficking enterprise. And lastly, I think we would have heard more stories by now.

I’ve seen some really bad NYT headlines but this one might take the cake. Trade is not a zero sum game. You don’t “win” a trade war. The overall, effective tariff on foreign goods keeps going up in America with prices rising along with it. How is that “winning?”

My speculative, grand conspiracy theory of everything is that: - Epstein procured underage girls for Trump and recorded him. - Epstein sold this info to Russian intelligence when he and Trump had a falling out in 2003. - Russian officials made Trump aware that they had this info, as leverage.

Not sure why Maxwell needs to “address questions” in private. My guess is that Maxwell has dirt on Trump and is using it as leverage to get a pardon. Trump’s DOJ is willing to bargain. Maybe Trump will ask that Maxwell go beyond staying quiet and make accusations against Trump’s political opponents.

Cult vs. conspiracy theory. Which is stronger ?

What’s staggering to me is that a party can run on something like ethnic cleansing and - at the same time - get a very respectable share of the vote from the people being targeted.

The picture of the economy keeps getting clearer. It’s contracting and we may only be a few weeks ago from economists declaring that we’re in a recession.

So, to sum up… We had a deal with Iran. We wouldn’t sanction if Iran halted its nuclear program. Trump tore that up. So Iran began to enrich again. A worried Israel attacked Iran. Trump joined. But, the nuclear program has only been delayed by a few months. Now Trump says a deal doesn’t matter. wtf

Can’t believe how many American news outlets wrote something like “Trump brokers ceasefire” last night before going to bed. They’re only gradually realizing that missile exchanges are ongoing and there’s no functional ceasefire. Still many outdated headlines up.

This story In a nutshell: Previous presidents restrained Israel. Trump is unable. Israel scuttled his attempted “deal” with Iran. Now he may bomb Iran because radio talk show host, Mark Levin, told him to and because he wants glory on Fox News.

wow

Massive crowd in SF today. #nokings

I’d love to see: An Iran with a democracy, no nuclear program, and no support for Russia’s imperial war or for Hizballah. An Israel without a far-right government, that stays out of US politics, that doesn’t take billions in US aid, and that allows for a Palestinian state. A boy can dream.

In pre-modern times, immigration rules were few. The corollary was that rulers could eject populations arbitrarily. As immigration became more rule-based, the process of kicking people out also became subject to rules. This Admin wants rules/bureaucracy for entry but arbitrary power for ejection

Trump has undermined public trust in the law through: his own crimes, pardons for criminal friends, and violations of federal law in immigration enforcement. Immigration officers are therefore operating in an environment of intense public distrust. That’s the base ingredient spawning protest.

Musk framing himself as part of the “80% in the center”, doesn’t make it so. He’s reportedly mad at the bill because - It doesn’t call for the FAA to use Starlink. - They nixed his friend for NASA head. - They aren’t willing to break personnel rules to keep him He wants gravy they won’t give

More evidence of a weakening economy. On the merits, Powell & Co. probably ‘should’ lower interest rates, but Trump is putting them in a real bind with his inflationary tariffs. Trump’s not chickening out from throwing sand in our economic gears and making the Fed’s job impossible.

Something everyone needs to understand about this Admin - they believe that national success is driven entirely by whiteness and that freedom, rights, markets, and political liberalism in general are irrelevant. Demography matters; good policy doesn’t. It like replacing John Locke with the KKK.

Pending home sales came in at -6.3% in April vs the expected -0.3%. This contrasts with the strong figures from last week for new home sales. Pending sales are a leading indicator. So much with the economy (recession risk, inflation, interest rates) depends on whether Trump revives the tariffs.

I think about this a lot as it relates to Trump’s antics here in the U.S.

🧵 1) The Biden discourse is about a bored media stoking a phony controversy. Guy had to make a decision in early 2023 about whether to run. Risks either way. If he runs, he could lose the election by being unpopular and/or diminished.

Tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports were embargo-level and threatened to cause massive disruption. But, tariffs of 30% across the board (there were already tariffs on some goods) are still going to be inflationary. Plus, this “deal” (capitulation?) is technically a “pause”, so uncertainty remains.

Many want to believe that Trump is using tariffs as a cudgel to lower duties on American exports. Alternatively, he’s a true believer, has no intention of removing his tariffs, and the “deals” are theatre - a way to keep Wall Street optimistic until they accept his tariffs as a permanent reality.

I wonder how many career officials in the US are “disillusioned by their prospects in government”. If this kind of recruitment tactic works it seems like we’re the vulnerable ones right now.

1st Qtr. GDP was expected to be slightly positive. Instead, the economy shrank by 0.3%. ADP’s employment report for March was 62K vs an expected 120K. Not good. The only positive sign is that consumer spending slightly beat expectations in March. That may have been about getting ahead of tariffs.

News used to be a fairly clean stream. There were few media outlets, and, to be successful, they needed a solid reputation. So they filtered out junk. The many-to-many info landscape has no filter. There are nuggets of gold in that steam now, but also lots of crap. The stream has become a sewer.

Following the George Floyd episode, there were three competing ideas about policing: 1. Defund it. 2. Reform it to minimize racism, abuse, and failure. 3. Let police do whatever they want. #1 was mostly conceptual but dominated news, produced a backlash, and now we’re diving into dark #3.

International tourism is about 3% of U.S. GDP. Its disappearance is enough to make the difference between a slowing economy and a recession.

We could end up with the worst of both worlds in the housing market - weakening demand from slower economic growth AND reduced affordability due to higher mortgage interest rates - all driven by Trump’s tariffs.

The US negotiated a deal with 12 Pacific Rim countries in 2016 to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, called the Trans Pacific Partnership. Took years. Trump pulled the US out in 2017 saying it was too complicated. There’s no way he’s going to negotiate new trade rules with dozens of nations.

Italy’s right-wing coalition includes Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Tajani’s Forza Italia, and Salvini’s Lega. Salvini’s distinction is being pro-Putin and on Putin’s payroll. Musk is not just embracing the Italian far-right, but the Moscow flavored version of it.

Even if “re-shoring” certain manufacturing or agricultural goods were possible, the problem is not just that it would take a very long time. Any industry that emerges because if the tariffs will be a hothouse flower - uncompetitive internationally and requiring indefinite tariffs to survive.