as a Canadian dad, I will blame somebody for today's hockey loss: j'accuse [I'll show myself out now]

I wrote some nastiness on X this morning and felt I should explain myself in a longer post. The AI review.. "Overall: this is a strong piece intellectually, but it needs editing discipline to match the quality of the underlying analysis.' so...old blog coldair.luftonline.n...

I've written on article: Ontario’s electricity prices rose materially in 2025, but the impact was highly uneven across consumer groups. Average commodity electricity costs increased by roughly 11–12%, masking extreme divergence 1/7

The IESO has released final January global adjustment numbers - and I'm sure the hope is they will remain legendary. -$494 million, leading to a credit to Class B consumers of $40.62/MWh I'd predicted $300 million and a $26/MWh class B credit. these figures are huge... 1/3

A summary of annual Ontario/IESO electricity demand by industrial sector. It could provide context in analyzing claims of spending to address fast growing sectors - such as mining. OTOH, last year the big growth was in "Other"

An annual summary of IESO demand, and est. supply, by their zones. The big excess supply zone is already Bruce, although less so if viewed in conjunction with the Southwest. Conversations about supply for Toronto could recognize that zone has long been relatively balanced

'merica needs an HR dep't im🇨🇦o

Marco Chown Oved had an article in the National Observor yesterday – sorry, just realized this is in the Globe by a similar person – or maybe just a different pseudonym. Anyway… I think the answer to the title is “yes”, and I don’t wish to defend OPG, but “in depth”… 1/6

I queried Ontario electricity data on costs of supply recovered by sales into the market. through Feb. 4, 2026 has already seen greater revenues than the total in 4 of the previous 10 years. This impacts average pricing, but more so on distribution of costs to classes (A and B)

Ontario’s electricity sector elite have chosen today to celebrate the completion of the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station (DNGS), “months ahead of schedule and $150 million under budget.” I am not celebrating with them. www.opg.com/stories/... 1/10

Ontario electricity in January (IESO-controlled grid): ON demand up 2.3% (315 GWh) down: nuclear (423 GWh), Hydro (220) up: gas (1,031 GWh) Net exports between 1.9 and 2 TWh (as usual) market price up 102.4% (highest since ever) 1/3

My estimates of ON electricity's global adjustment - imo, some very big calls. $-300 million (the hugest credit in history) $-26/MWh Class B (also a record) those would beat 2005 records big prediction: Class B commodity rate will be lower that Class A rate for 1st time

Improvement on Ontario Electricity pricing (DA-OZP), but the IESO forecast would still produce the 6th highest average rate in the market's history - with the top 5 coming in the preceding 5 days.

the good news in Ontario electricity pricing: the average rate dropped 1/3rd from yesterday to today the not-so-good news: today will either be the 4th or the 5th highest rate day in the market's history.

I apologize for joking the yesterday's slight decline in Ontario's electricity rates was good news. It was only a temporary delay of the guillotine for the few exposed to these rates - which have set a new record today.

the good news is that average daily Ontario electricity prices today will be lower than yesterday's record high. Less good is that this today be the second highest (Sunday was the third highest...) Bad is natural gas prices for consumers will be headed higher

good news: Ontario electricity pricing on the day-ahead market are down from yesterday's record high (for a daily average). Today will only be the second-highest rate day! (2 days ago was the third...) ...and your gas bills going to go up too

The good news is that the average daily gas price today will be lower than yesterday's record high. Less good is that today will be the second highest (Sunday the third highest). Bad news for natural gas consumers is your prices will need to head higher soon

Currently in the Northeast…

pretty wild statement re: Republican Chris Madel drop from race for MN governor: "Saying he cannot support the national GOP's 'stated retribution on citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so."

My Ontario electricity reporting/estimates now updating through week 4 - which was a big week in 2025, but a cold expensive weekend pushed demand and pricing past even that. Nuclear was down on the grid - I grudgingly think largely due a Bruce Power choice on outage timing 1/7

Good morning!

Record Ontario daily average electricity pricing yesterday, and to quote another Ontarian, up up up🎶 even huger pricing today [old record was from the polar vortex winter of 2014]

Another first! I noted yesterday that a record was set for generation under the "GAS"* category on the IESO's Ontario electricity grid. I've run queries and find these 2 record hours for GAS were also the first instances of GAS out-producing NUCLEAR on the IESO grid** 1/2

as a rule/bias... when an entity triples spending on a program in 2 short years, and then decrees the performance from its expanding spend as "Exceptional", I assume its conservation/efficiency. and nonsense

Didn't take long for the cold snap to lead to a snap upwards in Ontario electricity pricing. These hourly prices for Jan. 25 look about 5 times higher than prices during the milder days of early January. presumably this is driven by natural gas prices

System operated reports 8,163 MWh of gas from 4-5 pm. that's the 3rd highest hour for electricity from the "gas" category (includes some oil today!) Very near the record from Jan. 22, 2014's Polar vortex (8,478 from 7-8 pm).

In 2025, Ontario’s electricity sector experienced significant changes across demand, pricing, generation mix, and market structure. Electricity demand from the IESO-controlled grid rose by 3.7%, reaching levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. 1/5

Cold morning here in T.O.'s cottage country. We did drop to -30C during the time the IESO grid saw: -industrial wind turbine output drop 3 GW (since noon yesterday) -hourly gen fueled by gas set annual records (10-11pm last night, but sustained high) -still exporting!

The Globe and Mail published an article by Ivey Biz School [Enviro] Economist Brandon Schaufele. Writer aside, there's a lot not to trust in Ivey entities, and the Globe. My worry is that this is not actually unsolicited advice to the Ford gov't, but a campaign by it 1/8

Enbridge's Natural Gas storage levels at its Ontario hubs are back to last year's level for mid-January, with the drawdown slowing significantly during a presumably milder first half of January - which is why electricity market prices softened. but cold winter is now coming...

Ontario electricity week's estimates/reporting (from me) -similar to comp week (ISO week 3) ly. Only notable is imports were down and gas was up - in both cases my analysis is that those sources were driving exports, not servicing Ontario demand. 1/2

Electricity rates in Ontario increased in 2025. With today's release of December's global adjustment figures from the IESO all data is in to compute an average market rate plus average GA rate, by class. Class A (large) saw, on average, a 25% jump in cost/Megawatt-hour 1/2

nice work by AB's system generator to update the annual statistics data file so quickly this month. I assume it will take some time for them to compile their annual paper/.pdf report - but I have some of their table presentations in my #PowerBI reporting 1/2

An Austrian NATO official sent a blunt warning to Washington: Touch Greenland & Europe seizes US bases. Gunther Fehlinger says if the US annexes Greenland, every American base in Europe—from Germany to Italy to Romania—would be confiscated, ending decades of U.S. military power on the continent.

"Ontario Power Generation seeks near-double rate increase for electricity from nuclear plants" is the headline of an article in the Globe and Mail by Matthew McClearn. It's been nice being an advocate for both affordable rates and nuclear, but atm this doesn't seem possible 1/7

Updated AB electricity data through Dec. 2025 - a month which not only showed a new record high Alberta Internal Load (AIL), but saw the pre 2024 record exceeded in 35 hours. Winter Peaking. Likely better data to come yet, but overview is CCGT dominates; wind growing in 2nd 1/3

One of the most lopsided results you'll ever see in a poll, from our weekend Washington Post poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

My ON electricity reporting now updating through ISO week 1 of 2026 Down on the IESO grid: nuclear 153+ GWh hydro 107+ GWh wind 85+ GWh Up: GAS 647+ GWh ON Demand up 234+ GWh average market price up >2X to $75+/MWh diving deeper... 1/3

Evidence of an end, or at least a pause, to Ontario's long-history of dumping electricity exports at an enormous loss burdening Ontario's consumers: revenue of this WEEK's exports through Quebec interties should exceed the ANNUAL total for any year from 2016-2020

another day with Ontario being a heavy exporter of electricity Much of it still goes to Quebec: the "AT" intertie will get reported and it's 1200-1310 MW all the time (B31L is Saunders, and Q4C is Chats Falls). But NY intertie looks maxed at 1900 MW, also involving QC... 1/2

Ontario electricity reporting of IESO-controlled grid (Tx) data now through week 51 (ended Dec. 21, 2025) demand, and market pricing, still higher than since 2008, but moderating along with temps. high wind and increased gas compensated for lower hydro and nuclear

good news and bad news for Ontario electricity wholesale rates. Some good news is a warmer day with good wind had the rates in the day-ahead market well below they $100+/MWh pricing we've been seeing for weeks. Natural gas pricing at Enbridge's Dawn hub has declined. 1/2

for those dreaming of a nuclear Winter :) With Point Lepreau starting up in New Brunswick and Bruce 2 now returning to production in Ontario, every reactor in Canada that could be generating power now is. A little late for the cold - but that's cuz' the cold was early!

My Ontario Electricity reporting/estimates now updated through ISO week 50 2025. Average day-ahead Ontario zonal price was ~$140/MWh - up nearly $100/MWh over comp wk ly. I have this as an IESO record weekly average rate when weighted to ON demand [treating DA-OZP as HOEP] 1/5

My weekly Ontario electricity reporting/estimates, and commentary. The basic IESO data shows steep declines in output from nuclear (-273 GWh), hydro (-124 GWh) and wind (-83 GWh), all while provincial demand on the IESO grid rose ~ 170 GWh. Gas fueled 363 GWh more supply 1/5

A long-term illustration of annual generation, and demand, statistics for Ontario's electricity system can provide context to frame opinions stated as facts in media both old and new. I've updated this graphic with 2024 data. 1/3

My new article argues that to the extent nuclear contributes to the OEB's extraordinary November rate hike, it is mostly due to the OEB's poor management of regulating rates for OPG's nuclear assets. Rates for nuclear next year are based on far too little production forecast 1/2

Notes from my Ontario electricity reporting/estimates now through week 45. compared to last week supply from nuclear and hydro was down ~190 GWh while demand rose 190 GWh and so supply fueled by natural gas climbed 400 GWh. Market rate a record high for week 45's 1/

the defining trend of the past few years in Ontario electricity exports, and imports, is the nearing 12 TWh/year change with Quebec. Michigan is also notable as it is not pulling as much from Ontario as it did in the past decade and a half.