good news and bad news for Ontario electricity wholesale rates. Some good news is a warmer day with good wind had the rates in the day-ahead market well below they $100+/MWh pricing we've been seeing for weeks. Natural gas pricing at Enbridge's Dawn hub has declined. 1/2

for those dreaming of a nuclear Winter :) With Point Lepreau starting up in New Brunswick and Bruce 2 now returning to production in Ontario, every reactor in Canada that could be generating power now is. A little late for the cold - but that's cuz' the cold was early!

My Ontario Electricity reporting/estimates now updated through ISO week 50 2025. Average day-ahead Ontario zonal price was ~$140/MWh - up nearly $100/MWh over comp wk ly. I have this as an IESO record weekly average rate when weighted to ON demand [treating DA-OZP as HOEP] 1/5

My weekly Ontario electricity reporting/estimates, and commentary. The basic IESO data shows steep declines in output from nuclear (-273 GWh), hydro (-124 GWh) and wind (-83 GWh), all while provincial demand on the IESO grid rose ~ 170 GWh. Gas fueled 363 GWh more supply 1/5

A long-term illustration of annual generation, and demand, statistics for Ontario's electricity system can provide context to frame opinions stated as facts in media both old and new. I've updated this graphic with 2024 data. 1/3

My new article argues that to the extent nuclear contributes to the OEB's extraordinary November rate hike, it is mostly due to the OEB's poor management of regulating rates for OPG's nuclear assets. Rates for nuclear next year are based on far too little production forecast 1/2

Notes from my Ontario electricity reporting/estimates now through week 45. compared to last week supply from nuclear and hydro was down ~190 GWh while demand rose 190 GWh and so supply fueled by natural gas climbed 400 GWh. Market rate a record high for week 45's 1/

the defining trend of the past few years in Ontario electricity exports, and imports, is the nearing 12 TWh/year change with Quebec. Michigan is also notable as it is not pulling as much from Ontario as it did in the past decade and a half.

It wasn't fake. It was edited. But Reagan really did spend a five-minute speech – an April 25, 1987, national radio address that the Reagan Library has published on YouTube – to rail against tariffs. It was a full-throated expression of support for free and fair trade. https://cnn.it/4o5pBGv

Bruce Power to recognize Bruce C ain't happening within the next 15 months. www.ctvnews.ca/london/artic...

Lots of balcony solar discussion these days. Interesting idea but price in US is still much higher than grid scale. At 3% discount rate and 15% cap fac, the 200W system mentioned has LCOE of $0.13 if it last 25 years, $0.22 if it lasts 10 years. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

New piece up in the newsletter this morning on a new Siena poll of New Yorkers. Turns Kathy Hochul's plan for a new nuclear plant is popular. kaufman.substack.com/p/poll-half-...

IESO May global adjustment estimates: $143.7/MWh (class B) $1.155 Billion I did not do estimates as the introduction of market renewal on May 1 blew up my routines. and apparently the IESO's. spectacularly high values not seen since COVID hit. 1/2

My latest: - cutting commentary on Ontario's electricity system going-ons - should into the void - both \_(ツ)_/ coldair.substack.com...

Interesting time-staggered debate-of-sorts on whether or not Ontario's technically public Ontario Power Generation has chosen the correct nuclear reactor technology in undertaking the first new power reactor build in over 3 decades. 1/3

My Ontario electricity reporting now updated through week 16. This is a model for expensive electricity for Ontario households. rate (HOEP) dropping near 3 cents/kWh while exports surge: for every 5 kWh consumed in the province, 1.1 was sent away for little. 1/4

Manitoba's Premier Wab Kinew letting contracts with US end at expiry: willing to set aside some of the recovered capacity to service parts of Nunavut if feds will partner on transmission costs gifting: www.theglobeandmail....

INSANE market action right now. Market exploded higher on a headline attributed to Kevin Hassett. And now nobody can figure out where it came from and the markets are diving again. An 8% surge and then a 3.5% plunge in a matter of seconds

big if true (imo): "Hydro‑Québec’s main transmission line into New England, known as the Phase II line, stopped exporting any meaningful amount of power two days after President Donald Trump’s tariff on Canadian imports went into effect."

"UNAUTHORIZED MOORING OF BOATS IS PROHIBITED MNR" ...and foolish given the dilapidated condition of the [former?] structure.

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

Big SMR News from nuclear Ontario: "The Commission has authorized Ontario Power Generation to construct one BWRX-300 reactor at the Darlington New Nuclear Project site. " www.canada.ca/en/nuc...

Beautiful sunny morning here and I've been fortunate to see all of it the rail company knows as CP was setting a world record for excruciating noise from a train around 1:50 - 2:15 in the dead of night, after causing me long excursions through blocking road twice yesterday 1/6

new biz idea: PedEx💡

Basically, at this point, given Carney could characterized as a Mulroney era Conservative, it would be completely irresponsible for even remotely climate minded Conservatives to vote for Poilievre, who has now pledged to get rid of industrial emissions pricing in Canada.

#CANMNT CNL Finals Roster Update 🚨 Canada Soccer can confirm that Sporting KC's Zorhan Bassong has been called into CANMNT's Concacaf Nations League Finals squad as an injury replacement for Toronto FC's Richie Laryea.

By the mid-2030s, the electrification of heating systems is expected drive annual peak demand higher in winter than in summer, and shift daily peaks from evening to morning. Learn more about ISO-NE's forecasting innovations: buff.ly/F0xDgBE 🔌💡

With Carney pre-emptively killing the consumer carbon tax, I suppose it was inevitable that Poilievre would push further and target large emitter pricing. This is a bad idea for several reasons… [1/4]

Latest wind turbine failure in Ontario could get interesting. Port Burwell is one of the earlier sites from the renewable energy standard, and is therefore approaching it's 20-year contract term, which many saw as project lifecycle. similar models at Amaranth and Prince Farm 1/2

who will egg the United States?

No one ever said they were creative.

"Much ado about Ontario’s new export charge on electricity " I've written on what I see as a relatively insubstantial tariff Ontario has introduced on electricity exports to the USA. coldair.substack.com...

Francois Legault on reaction to US tariffs: - has signed electricity contract with VT; can't change that. - has upcoming contracts with MA and NY. Higher prices on the table - looking at export tax on aluminum. www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...

Epic idea

Tesla is crashing. X has crashed. What a time to be alive.

2 clippings from OPG's 2024 financial reporting that may explain government support of nuclear new build spending. Capital expenditures of ~$2.5 billion on nuclear projects, and... 1/2

BREAKING - Trump team met with Ukraine’s top 2 opposition leaders to try to topple Zelenskyy The plan has FAILED - both opposition leaders have officially said they do NOT support calling an election to replace Zelenskyy while the war is going on

Secondary point but the journey from, "we are going to raise tariffs to eliminate income tax" to "actually, we are going to raise tariffs to create a sovereign wealth fund full of crypto currencies David Sacks happens to be heavily invested in" happened about as fast as I expected it to.

French Senator Claude Malhuret: "Washington has become Nero’s court, with an incendiary emperor, submissive courtiers and a jester high on ketamine... We were at war with a dictator, we are now at war with a dictator backed by a traitor."

long-range shot of some creatures we're seeing a lot more of up here on our river since POSOTUS was sworn in for his last term: bald eagles. what does MAGA nation opine: drones, or expats?

Keir Starmer, how much more obvious does it need to get? These people are not our allies, and should not be trusted. We urgently need to disentangle our military and security systems from the US. www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news...

Being able to drop a quarterly US GDP prediction by 5.1% from +2.3% to -2.8% in a single week is one of the most impressive economic developments in the history of the world.

This. In game theory, a smaller player can win against a bigger adversary, but only if the smaller player is more committed to imposing costs and is willing to bear pain.

My Ontario electricity reporting now updated through week 9. for 2025: demand highest in a decade, with increase over last year met with natural gas fueled generation - which was also use is supporting higher exports 1/2

Brilliant.

💥 Former Stasi agent and close friend of Putin, Matthias Warnig has been engineering a deal with US investors to restart Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe, a once unthinkable move that shows the breadth of Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Moscow. www.ft.com/content/dc9c...

If you worked for 18F and got fired, Group together to start a consulting company. It’s just a matter of time before DOGE needs you to fix the mess they inevitably create. They will have to hire your company as a contractor to fix it. But on your terms. I’m happy to invest and/or help

On "Siren Suit": Churchill said that "Clothes and manners do not make the man, but when he is made, they greatly improve his appearance." Understood the power of image in leadership at war...making his ravishing jumpsuit into a statement without bonne spurs.

first looks at February electricity data in Ontario. Demand up 6+% over the longer Feb. 2024, at the highest level for the month in a decade. The entire demand growth was covered by natural gas - which also pitched in to compensate for lower nuclear. 1/5

Imagine being told a decade ago that this sort of warning would be running in our newspaper - and that you (or I at least) would be nodding along with most of it. www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...