The West is losing because we allow China (and Russia) to define the terms of the competition.

We just witnessed Russian MiG-31 fighters in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Just before, we had drones in Poland and Romania. European NATO members have to choose now between whether they are letting Russia’s inching work or showing that NATO's border holds.

What does Beijing’s declared interest in 🇺🇦 mean for 🇬🇧 - 🇨🇳 relations? We asked four experts for their take in today’s #Tangram ✍️ Charles Parton OBE, @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, Leon Sinfield and Danielle Reader #ObservingChina

‘The explicit nature of Wang’s comment makes it even harder to manage the gap and continuing to bet on the PRC as the economic lifeline for the UK,’ states @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, @rusi.bsky.social #Tangram

We should not forget about #Georgia and allow it to become another #Belarus‼️ My friend from Tbilisi just flagged how 📌 As of now, every remaining opposition party leader is in prison. 📌 Eight NGOs have received court orders that will soon lead to their closure. 1/2

“Europe has a problem that it doesn't quite want to see how close the relationship between China and Russia is and how it also benefits China.” My interview in the Finnish Verkkouutiset by @kaisapaastela.bsky.social @rusi.bsky.social 1/2

Wang Yi to his 🇮🇩 colleague Sugiono in Beijing: “With the US launching a global trade war..” “We must..jointly defend international fairness and justice, send a signal of unity and openness to the outside world..” 🇨🇳 uses powerful speaking points (+tangible perks) to lure countries to its side.

Kenya’s President William Ruto, who begins a state visit in China today, has reaffirmed Kenya’s aspiration to join BRICS (as per People’s Daily); simultaneously Trump eyes gutting US diplomacy in Africa, with closing all non-essential embassies and consulates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Critical mineral dependence on China is now trending since 🇨🇳 weaponised the most vital rare earths using export controls to hit back in the trade war. Politicians and companies dependent on these supplies have long been aware of this vulnerability. 🇨🇳’s actions could not have come as a surprise.

Ursula von der Leyen spoke to Chinese Premier Li Qiang this week, wanting to “set up a mechanism for tracking possible trade diversion” after the US tariffs on China. 1/3

Interesting comments coming out (even from some in the critically leaning China watching community) as if somehow China is now better and more responsible global power only because these same voices are disappointed with the United States.

Rearm but keep buying American: Washington is upset about the EU plans to buy European and exclude the US from the EU ReArm Europe fund. Perhaps, in return, the US should clarify whether Article 5 applies to the US (or only to its allies) and whether annexing land from allies is appropriate. 1/

“As Japan, China and South Korea are tied together through bilateral trade, free trade is an issue they can rally around amid Trump's tariff war.” 1/

It is incredible how, in Europe, some politicians still believe that China would - or could - rein in Russia. 1/4

Putin won't let Xi wait.

Apparently the art of the deal is to give me everything I want and then to impose no consequences when I still want more.

Xi may court foreign heavyweights to invest in China all he wants, but “🇨🇳’s opening up” is still only empty words. The push for self-reliance (combined w barriers to market access, deflation, competition fr domestic rivals that are eating away margins) has killed confidence. 1/2

If VP Vance indeed downplays the relevance of countries that have not fought a war in 30 or 40 years, then the US should not worry about China.

It looks like China and Russia are winning. Accelerated by America. The partnership for a new era.

While Zelenskyy meets Trump in Washington today, Xi Jinping met with Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, in Beijing on the same day.

China and Russia affirmed their close ties in the video conversation between Xi and Putin (as per their readouts): 1/

In the circumstances, well done President Macron.

Not surprised that Yalta II would be in Beijing’s interests. According to Nikkei’s Katsuji Nakazawa, China eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role as a stepping stone toward a new world order: 1/3

The Finnish President Stubb told reporters in Munich: “I see a lot of people here who are upset and who are not happy with the situation. But my question is, OK, what are you going to do about it?” After Starmer’s move, we will find out who is who in Europe.

Why was multi-polarization the major theme of the #MSC2025? Bipolarisation is happening in front of our eyes. Denying this reality is strategically dangerous.

Admittedly, the EU hasn't demonstrated that it matters much, but if the EU really wants to stand by Ukraine, it could start by inviting Ukraine to become a member of the European Union now.

Throwing Ukraine under the bus does not constitute a durable peace. It will, however, strengthen China’s iron-clad ally, which has pledged to stand by China in the Indo-Pacific. Interesting strategy.

Zelenskyy knows that Europe’s security guarantees alone are useless against Russia. Europe has had three years, and here we are—enough evidence of its paralysis.

Many European countries will be reluctant to put their skin in the game to defend Ukraine — even if the US would have been a party. Instead, these same suspects stand ready to restart buying energy from Russia. Play your bingo to guess which EU member states will go first.

WSJ reports that China is pushing to play a role in hosting a summit be Trump and Putin. With its own peace plan for Ukraine fr Feb 2023, 🇨🇳 wanted to secure a seat in the future table. Seems like that table has arrived but China faces a cold shoulder. Will Beijing push Moscow instead of Washington?

Trump wants to follow Kissinger’s advice and break the Russia-China alliance. However, Putin will not throw Beijing under the bus - no matter how appealing that thought might sound as a rationale for abandoning Ukraine.

Judging from the shares of the population that view China as either a rival or adversary, Germany comes out as the most hawkish among EU countries polled by @ecfr.eu. A sign perhaps that the population is ahead of the politicians. H/T @fbermingham.bsky.social

BYD has released a new self-driving assistance system called “God’s Eye”, which it plans to enable in almost all its new cars. I'm just curious: which God’s eye are we talking about?

We’re proud to have @sariarhohavren.bsky.social in #WiCH as our co-chair for Finland! A Senior Geopolitical Advisor at Business Finland & Associate Fellow at RUSI, she brings deep expertise on China’s global order & China-Russia relations. With 15+ years in China & HK, she’s shaping key debates! 🌏✨

As much as Lu Shaye’s nomination to manage China’s diplomatic relationship with Europe signals Beijing’s hard stance over the EU, I cannot but wonder if Beijing is truly reading the situation in Europe so badly. 1/2

And there it is: Doors are open for kleptocracy in America

“The Republican attorneys general of more than a dozen states are probing some of the US’s largest asset managers and financial institutions for what they characterize as their misrepresentations about the risks of investing in China.” 1/

Trump said on Monday that he expected a call with Xi Jinping “probably over the next 24 hours”, and then soon after that, he is “in no rush to talk to Xi.” Sounds to me that Xi is in no rush to talk to Trump.

Meanwhile, a robot delivers food home during a heavy snowfall in Finland.

“An international investigation by Follow the Money has found that at least 230 ships – one-third of Russia’s shadow fleet – were sold by Western shipping companies. They were sold for exorbitant prices, netting their owners over $6 billion for vessels that would otherwise have been scrapped.”

Xi Jinping is a greater risk-taker than his predecessors, Hu and Jiang. However, Xi seeks stability and predictability in China and internationally, and Trump certainly does not deliver. Vis a vis Beijing, his mad-man theory works.

One wonders why Trump’s first foreign policy ask was not to strengthen its alliances to counter China. Instead, he finished what China couldn't: weakened the trans-Atlantic tie.

In my piece written bf Trump's inauguration, I argued that🇨🇳is not only ready to meet the Trump administration for the 2nd time but has systematically built a position of strength. The Western allies overlook some signs of this preparedness, particularly the China-Russia’partnership for a new era’.1/

Finnish Prime Minister Orpo just said in an interview that it is entirely possible that Russia may test the validity and functionality of Article 5 with an attack. This is the first time the Finnish government has made such a statement.

While the world hyperventilates about Trump’s inauguration, Putin and Xi just spoke via video meeting.

During his inauguration, Trump seated the tech oligarchs behind him. He has granted them significant influence even within his administration, whereas Xi and Putin have historically distrusted their own oligarchs and have kept them in check (w harsh means) to prevent them fr becoming too powerful.

TikTok, Xiaomi, Shein, Ali Express, WeChat and Temu — all transfer Europeans’ personal data to China. noyb.eu/en/tiktok-al...

US national security adviser fears Trump might push some nations toward China: “I do worry that questions about America’s reliability and staying power with our allies and partners will lead countries to say, ‘maybe we need to hedge with China’.” www.scmp.com/news/china/a...

“Chinese-language patent applications shows that engineers in China invented devices to sever such cables quickly and cheaply”. 1/2