Geopolitics in the era of fragmentation: Countries choose their partners based on optionality; the ones that secure your objectives and increase your resilience.

Macron calling it as it is: Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Xi Jinping are all against Europe 🇪🇺. A disunited and weak Europe would be easier to control and exploit.

Middle powers may want to become a balancing global power base, but China is (regretfully) the only one offering a blueprint for what the next order should look like. Without a designed offer, it is impossible to sell anything.

No deal with the war over Iran will likely trigger a continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and further global supply chain shock. 1/5

Many analysts (myself included) predicted a period of Cold War II and a bipolar world. This was short-lived, as it rested on the assumption that the US would maintain its superpower status not only through its military but also 1/3

The Hungarian government has signed an agreement with Russia to expand economic, trade, energy and cultural ties. They also underscored the importance of “developing long-term, mutually beneficial ties between the two countries in areas of mutual interest.” 1/2

Remember the Cheka? The first Soviet secret security organisation, established in 1917 by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin to protect the Bolshevik Revolution. It was designed to eliminate threats to the Soviet regime and, eventually, it was the Cheka that enforced the Red Terror against political opponents.1/

“After Trump, the old America could make a comeback”, Gideon Rachman writes in his latest worth-reading column in FT. “The gathering backlash against Trump is steadily increasing the chance that his presidency will ultimately be seen as a grotesque aberration — rather than a lasting shift.” 1/

Nothing happens in Europe dominates the discussions too often: Investors are pouring billions of euros into European AI and defence tech start-ups, backing companies seen as critical to Europe’s economic competitiveness and security. 1/2

Interesting article on People’s Daily today about Xi Jinping’s attention to grassroots officers. “Chairman Xi is extremely concerned about the life of the officers and soldiers on board; …. 1/4

Those who voted against Russia, Iran, Belarus, etc., are no surprise, but China, India, Indonesia, among many others, abstained. Seemingly a morally challenging decision indeed, whether a war aggressor should return children to their parents whom it has kidnapped as an action of war.

When Russia praises the new US security strategy, you get the idea of the magnitude of the shift that has taken place.

WSJ headline

🗣️ ‘The new embassy poses concrete security risks, and symbolically feeds into the war on narratives, amplifying the idea democracy is weak and has a propensity to sacrifice national security for economic gains,’ says @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, our International Fellow #Tangram #ObservingChina

Even if nobody believes that the G2 order is emerging by agreement, Beijing must be pleased to be seen as an equal peer.

Bessent said that the US would counter China together with allies. Allies understand that countering China starts in Ukraine, not by appeasing Putin.

Chinese lawmakers told members of the European Parliament that NATO shouldn’t exist, and spouted Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine at a rare meeting in Brussels on Thursday. 1/

We are pleased to announce that @sariarhohavren.bsky.social and Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel are joining us as International Fellows! 🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....

It is actually positive news that President Trump will not meet with the Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping.

During President Stubb’s visit to the White House, President Trump answered Finnish media’s questions and said the United States has no plans to withdraw its troops from Europe, but they may be redeployed.

Beijing kills two (or more) birds with one stone with the new export controls. For Europe, this means seriously slowing down Europe’s rearmament by hitting hard at European defence industries. Beijing was never a fan of the 5% GDP defence target.

Inconsistency in foreign affairs is the new normal. Modi just congratulated Putin: “Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3

⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the government documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.

This is fundamentally necessary, and as a European, I am pleased that our policymakers are finally doing the bare minimum. This has been obvious for a decade (if not more, considering the number of industries we would have lost to China). 1/

So, to summarize: EV tariffs aren't working, the EU is now more dependent on China than ever, member states are cooling on a joint response, and the continent's two biggest economies are either paralyzed or lethargic. Everything is going great @noahbarkin.bsky.social. www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...

⬇️ The US moves fast, the EU by design like a 🐌. Yet, the risks and dependencies are the same as in the US. The bloc launched its de-risking two and a half years ago; nothing considerable has happened.

Based on national legislation in most countries, such tankers could be stopped and inspected. The European-wide inertia is staggering.

OTD in 2006 journalist & activist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead. Whoever is responsible for having her killed is still at large. And turns 73 today.

⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the gov documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Blocked from the U.S. market, Chinese self-driving technology firms are accelerating their push into Europe, setting up headquarters, striking data deals, and road-testing - prompting alarm from local rivals over competition concerns.1/2

Build the dependencies and they will kowtow. Beijing’s geoeconomic power on display in the 🇬🇧 — without 🇨🇳 doing anything, simply harvesting the benefits.

In her interview, Mrs Merkel gives the impression that Poland and the Baltic states prevented diplomacy with Moscow, and therefore, after her departure, Russia’s aggression broke out. There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation. It was and is all about HER.

“Although Trump has railed against China over trade, he has shown little appetite for deepening U.S. military engagement in Asia to counter Beijing's military buildup. He has shown no inclination to contest spheres of influence with China by viewing the world as a geopolitical chessboard.” 1/

Sounds like something the PRC does, although 🇨🇳 has - for the most part - automated the surveillance long ago.

On Friday, the Helsinki District Court ruled that it doesn't have jurisdiction over cable damage caused by the Eagle S in the Baltic Sea. The 🇷🇺 shadow fleet oil tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor on the seabed in the Gulf of Finland for hours on Christmas Day. It damaged 5 undersea cables. 1/

A cargo ship linked to a drone attack that disrupted air traffic in Denmark and is linked to a Russian mercenary/military company, RSB Group, arrived at the port of Hamina in Finland at night‼️11/13 of the crew are Russians. 1/3

This is not mere visioning. Western governments, pressured for funding public services, can save money by adopting these already widely used techniques. The rule of law currently protects individuals from those in power, but the rising far right is not known for rigorously defending civil rights.

If the EU’s 19th sanction package against🇷🇺 is adopted as proposed, the measures wld represent one of the EU’s most aggressive rounds, driven by Trump’s demands that allies impose 50–100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian companies buying🇷🇺 oil. Let's break down what this means, esp for 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳: 1/

The Finnish Foreign Minister @elinavaltonen.bsky.social acknowledges the tragic facts: “Unfortunately, dealing with any imperialist power like Russia, diplomacy hardly helps.”

Two theatre simulation preparedness exercises have not been in vain. The scenario of the PRC’s invasion of Taiwan, supported by Russian Indo-Pacific forces, and simultaneous Russian attacks on Ukraine and NATO countries in Europe, is not unthinkable. ⤵️ www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

FT: The battle for US media freedom: “One way to gauge the intentions of would-be authoritarians is to see how far they tolerate the jesters. An early sign of Putin’s quest to bring 🇷🇺 media to heel was the 2001 axing of Kukly (Puppets), a TV show that often satirised the thin-skinned president.”

China’s remarks on Ukraine at the UN Security Council yesterday insisted on calling Russia’s over three-year war of aggression and invasion of Ukraine still a crisis. by Ambassador Geng Shuang at the UN Security Council High-level Briefing 2025-09-23 20:00 1/4

The West is losing because we allow China (and Russia) to define the terms of the competition.

We just witnessed Russian MiG-31 fighters in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Just before, we had drones in Poland and Romania. European NATO members have to choose now between whether they are letting Russia’s inching work or showing that NATO's border holds.

What does Beijing’s declared interest in 🇺🇦 mean for 🇬🇧 - 🇨🇳 relations? We asked four experts for their take in today’s #Tangram ✍️ Charles Parton OBE, @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, Leon Sinfield and Danielle Reader #ObservingChina

‘The explicit nature of Wang’s comment makes it even harder to manage the gap and continuing to bet on the PRC as the economic lifeline for the UK,’ states @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, @rusi.bsky.social #Tangram

We should not forget about #Georgia and allow it to become another #Belarus‼️ My friend from Tbilisi just flagged how 📌 As of now, every remaining opposition party leader is in prison. 📌 Eight NGOs have received court orders that will soon lead to their closure. 1/2

“Europe has a problem that it doesn't quite want to see how close the relationship between China and Russia is and how it also benefits China.” My interview in the Finnish Verkkouutiset by @kaisapaastela.bsky.social @rusi.bsky.social 1/2

Wang Yi to his 🇮🇩 colleague Sugiono in Beijing: “With the US launching a global trade war..” “We must..jointly defend international fairness and justice, send a signal of unity and openness to the outside world..” 🇨🇳 uses powerful speaking points (+tangible perks) to lure countries to its side.