In 2002, most ambitious Democratic politicians supported a Middle Eastern war. In 2026, most oppose it. I wrote about the slow, then sudden, death of the hawkish Democrat, and the many reasons behind the party's anti-war turn (gift link):

You will never see a stronger argument against nominative determinism

Trump telegraphed his intent to wage a war with Iran for decades, and his decision to do so was entirely predictable—and *was* predicted, including by MSNBC's Katy Tur, back in 2017. The only people surprised are those who misled themselves (and others) about who Trump was.

Trump's continued stranglehold on his base, in two images

ALL ABOARD THE FISH AND CHIP SOUVENIR FERRY HONK HONK

I'm very late to this because of … everything … but this podcast on the life of Roald Dahl has so much I knew nothing about, and also deals forthrightly and thoughtfully with questions of his bigotry. I'm in episode 7, talking antisemitism, but much more to it than that:

"Trump's approval with MAGA GOP is literally 100%." "MAGA makes up the same share of voters as it did when Trump won in 2024." Remember this next time you see a story quoting Tucker, Bannon, Greene (and probably next Joe Kent) saying MAGA is mad at Trump and splitting. It's not.

Kent claims Israel tricked Trump into war with Iran. Trump has called to invade Iran for 46 years. Kent claims Israel tricked America into war with Iraq. In reality, Israel opposed it. Kent claims his wife was killed in a war "manufactured by Israel." She was killed by ISIS in Syria.

Believing, as Kent claims, that Trump was an anti-war president opposed to Middle East interventions who was somehow tricked into it by Israel, requires ignoring everything Trump said about Iran before he became president, and everything he did afterward. www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

I wrote about the cautionary tale of Joe Kent, a conspiratorial activist who enabled a president who then launched a war that he ardently opposed, because he completely misunderstood the man and movement he backed. Gift link:

I wrote about the cautionary tale of Joe Kent, a conspiratorial activist who enabled a president who then launched a war that he ardently opposed, because he completely misunderstood the man and movement he backed. Gift link:

I don't think many people realize that Trump has been talking about Iran like this since 1980: www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

It started with gamblers harassing athletes for messing up their bets. It was never going to end there. Grateful to the author for telling this story publicly. I suspect we'll see more of this.

No religion or political ideology will protect you from bigotry. The only thing that protects you from bigotry is your own vigilance. "I can't be prejudiced against X because I believe Y" is not a real thing.

excited to announce my new personalized poll writing advice feature, where if you type the words "a 1-point shift," a digital avatar of me grabs hold of your cursor and refuses to let go until you delete it

Netanyahu is trying to use the Iran war for his own domestic political advantage, whether as an excuse to call of his corruption trial or to pass an unpopular budget. But there are good reasons to think it's not going to work, and that the war might even end up being his undoing. Gift link:

"There’s nothing wrong with being a little crunchy, but we’re well beyond the recommended dosage here." Read @adamserwer.bsky.social on the toxic mix of gullibility and conspiracism that has overtaken the country, and why it should be resisted:

"Believing that Trump was somehow a 'peace president' devoted to American restraint, as some credulous commentators claimed, required ignoring everything he’d said before he was president and everything he’d done after he became president."

"You will never stop meeting your child. That is one reason to become a parent: To have a child is to fall in love with a thousand beautiful strangers." - @dkthomp.bsky.social, "On Being a Dad"

"Believing that Trump was somehow a 'peace president' devoted to American restraint, as some credulous commentators claimed, required ignoring everything he’d said before he was president and everything he’d done after he became president."

ME IN JANUARY: Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon are not pro-Trump, do not represent him or his base, and are in fact seeking to supplant him and reshape the party in their own image. TRUMP TODAY: "Tucker Carlson has lost his way" and "he's not MAGA." Maybe now the rest of the discourse can catch up!

@joshuaholland.bsky.social It's a thread! bsky.app/profile/yair...

Every single time: 1. Trump does something hawkish on foreign affairs 2. Breathless stories are written about MAGA being mad and schisming, quoting the same three people (Tucker, Bannon, Greene) 3. Polls show that MAGA Republicans support Trump's move 160%-3%

The Trump administration's shifting justifications for war are a smoke screen that obscures the obvious. "The real impetus for such action was Trump’s imperial approach to American power, which was decades in the making." Gift link:

Other points of note: - Analysis of a phenomenon ≠ approval - People and political actors who are extreme or radical can become more extreme or radical (see: American politics over the last decade, Trump I vs Trump II) - There is a difference between covert and overt conflict in geopolitics

Was away for a bit, see that some on here decided to outrage farm about a tweet I didn't write for an article of mine they didn't read or link. Since that seems to be the preferred mode of consumption, here are a few other headlines! Always do the reading; don't let the engagement farmers con you.

“Believing that Trump was somehow a ‘peace president’ devoted to American restraint, as some credulous commentators claimed, required ignoring everything he’d said before he was president and everything he’d done after he became president.” www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

The Trump administration's shifting justifications for war are a smoke screen that obscures the obvious. "The real impetus for such action was Trump’s imperial approach to American power, which was decades in the making." Gift link:

Was away for a bit, see that some on here decided to outrage farm about a tweet I didn't write for an article of mine they didn't read or link. Since that seems to be the preferred mode of consumption, here are a few other headlines! Always do the reading; don't let the engagement farmers con you.

The Eternal Life of Goldman is one of the most beautiful games of 2026. It's also nice to finally see some video-game representation for people like me: aging Jews with back problems. For this week's column, I spoke to the director of this stunning platformer: www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

In 1862, General Ulysses Grant expelled Jews from his military district during the Civil War, a move reversed by President Lincoln. In 2026, Candace Owens praised Grant’s expulsion. And this week, a now ex-member of Trump’s Religious Liberty Commission wouldn’t tell me whether that was antisemitic.

I talked to Carrie Prejean Boller about the attempts to remove her from Trump's Religious Liberty Commission, why she rejects charges of anti-Semitism, her views on Zionism, and why she insists Candace Owens has never said anything anti-Semitic. I recommend reading to the end. It takes a turn.

This is endemic to social media and makes having thoughtful, effective conversations on here very difficult. You should follow people who respect you enough to tell you the truth, rather than those who think truth is unimportant and pursue other personal and political agendas.

As long as you never expose yourself to someone’s antisemitism you can just pretend it’s not real!

Current state of things, cont'd bsky.app/profile/yair...

In 1862, General Ulysses Grant expelled Jews from his military district during the Civil War, a move reversed by President Lincoln. In 2026, Candace Owens praised Grant’s expulsion. And this week, a now ex-member of Trump’s Religious Liberty Commission wouldn’t tell me whether that was antisemitic.

I talked to Carrie Prejean Boller about the attempts to remove her from Trump's Religious Liberty Commission, why she rejects charges of anti-Semitism, her views on Zionism, and why she insists Candace Owens has never said anything anti-Semitic. I recommend reading to the end. It takes a turn.

"Charlie Kirk’s assassin didn’t kill just one man; he destabilized the entire Trump coalition by removing a pivotal person who had been holding it together. In doing so, the killer helped unshackle dark forces—chief among them anti-Semitism—that now threaten to overtake the conservative movement."

A great piece from @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social on how Charlie Kirk’s assassination unleashed infighting among maga elites www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

I've been working on this one for a while. It's about how we got here, and where we're going. I hope you'll read it to the end. Gift link: www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

This is extremely informative and brilliantly written. And, it's free.

Absolutely great piece that absolutely should be read to the end.

I've been working on this one for a while. It's about how we got here, and where we're going. I hope you'll read it to the end. Gift link: www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

X gives blue checkmark and engagement dollars to white nationalist fabricating racist quotes and falsely attributing them to real rabbis. Then X's bot tells white nationalists that the quote isn't true. Causing a disease, then selling the cure -- the tech story of our time.

Trump’s base isn’t abandoning him—but several groups have an interest in pushing the claim that they are, @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social argues. theatln.tc/zjU2SoNz

Great to join @pantsuitpolitics.skystack.xyz again, this time to discuss the forces driving the age divide on antisemitism, how prejudice imposes a no-win dynamic, and how to cover Israel as an actual country, rather than a positively or negatively charged symbol. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

@yair-rosenberg.bsky.social: “Trumpism is not neo-isolationist or neoconservative, pro-restraint or pro-intervention. It is not pro-worker or pro-billionaire. It is whatever Trump says it is.“

It was a very interesting piece