🗳️ COUNCIL CONTROL PREDICTION MODEL (Bombe/Daily Mail) ❌ NO OVERALL CONTROL - 62 (+24) ➡️ REFORM: 17 (+17) 🟥 LAB: 16 (-49) 🟧 LIB DEM: 14 (+2) 🟩 GREEN: 9 (+9) 🟦 CON: 9 (-1) 🟪 IND/OTHER: 1 (-2)

🗳️ UK LOCAL ELECTION PREDICTION MODEL (Bombe/Daily Mail) ➡️ REFORM: 1,570 (+1,508) 🟦 CON: 828 (-56) 🟩 GREEN: 740 (+586) 🟧 LIB DEM: 593 (-10) 🟥 LAB: 512 (-1,740) 🟪 IND/OTHER: 144 (-288)

🚨 BREAKING | Ruth O’Dea selected as Labour’s candidate for the Dublin Central by-election.

🗳️ POLL IF REPLICATED IN ELECTION 🗳️ (Holborn and St. Pancras) INCUMBENT: 🟥 Keir Starmer (LAB) 🟩 GREEN: 33.6% (+23.1) 🟥 LAB: 30.5% (-18.4) 🟪 MIN: 10.6% (-8.3) ➡️ REFORM: 10.0% (+3.9) 🟧 LIB DEM: 8.8% (+3.0) 🟦 CON: 4.7% (-2.5) 🟪 OTHER: 1.8% (-0.8)

🗳️ SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON POLL 🗳️ ➡️ REFORM: 262 (+257) 🟩 GREEN: 126 (+122) 🟧 LIB DEM: 86 (+14) 🟦 CON: 51 (-70) 🟨 SNP: 46 (+37) 🟥 LAB: 45 (-366) 🟪 IND/OTHER: 9 (+4) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID: 5 (+1) 🟫 WORKERS: 1 (+1)

🗳️ UK POLLING 🗳️ ➡️ REFORM: 23% (-1 from last YouGov poll) 🟩 GREEN: 21% (+4) 🟥 LAB: 16% (-2) 🟦 CON: 16% (-2) 🟧 LIB DEM: 14% (N/C) 🟨 SNP: 3% (-1) 🟪 IND/OTHER: 7% (+2) Conducted by YouGov (1-2 March 2026)

🗳️ SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON POLL 🗳️ SF: 46 (+7) FF: 42 (-6) FG: 32 (-6) SD: 25 (+14) IND/OTHER: 7 (-10) LAB: 7 (-4) IND IRE: 6 (+2) GREEN: 4 (+3) AONTÚ: 4 (+2) PBP/S: 1 (-2)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks) SF: 22% FF: 18% FG: 17% SD: 11% IND/OTHER: 11% AONTÚ: 6% IND IRE: 5% GREEN: 4% LAB: 4% PBP/S: 3%

🗳️ SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON POLL 🗳️ SF: 49 (+10) FF: 42 (-6) FG: 36 (-2) SD: 22 (+11) IND/OTHER: 8 (-9) LAB: 8 (-3) IND IRE: 5 (+1) AONTÚ: 3 (+1) GREEN: 1 (N/C) PBP/S: 0 (-3)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Business Post/Red C) SF: 23% FG: 18% FF: 17% IND/OTHER: 13% SD: 9% LAB: 5% AONTÚ: 5% IND IRE: 4% PBP/S: 3% GREEN: 3%

🚨 BREAKING | Morgan McSweeney has resigned as Chief of Staff to Keir Starmer.

🚨 NEW | Taoiseach Micheál Martin has vowed that he will lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election. He also insisted he won’t be stepping down as leader when Simon Harris becomes Taoiseach next year.

🗳️ SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON POLL 🗳️ ➡️ REF - 336 (+331) 🟧 LIB DEM - 76 (+4) 🟦 CON - 72 (-49) 🟥 LAB - 67 (-344) 🟨 SNP - 42 (+33) 🟩 GREEN - 25 (+21) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID CYMRU - 8 (+4) 🟪 IND - 5 (N/C) 🟫 NI TOTAL SEATS - 18 (N/C) ⬛️ SPEAKER - 1 (N/C)

🚨 NEW | Fine Gael has opened the nomination process to select its candidate for the Galway West by-election. Nominations will remain open until next Thursday, Feb 12th, and the selection convention will take place in Salthill on Sunday Feb 22nd.

I highly doubt a by-election would be held on a Monday, but it would be funny.

🚨 BREAKING | The Irish Sun reports that the Galway West by-election looks set to be held on Monday 11th May.

🗳️ GOVERNMENT - APPROVAL RATING 🗳️ Approve: 28% Disapprove: 61% Don’t Know: 11% Conducted by @independent.ie and Ireland Thinks (January 2026)

🗳️ QUESTION: “Do you think the Government was right or wrong to vote against the EU trade deal with South America (Mercosur)?” Right: 57% Wrong: 25% Not Sure: 18% Conducted by @independent.ie and Ireland Thinks (January 2026)

🗳️ DUBLIN CENTRAL BY-ELECTION 🗳️ (CONFIRMED CANDIDATES SO FAR) Daniel Ennis (SD) Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (PBP) Gerry Hutch (IND) Gillian Sherratt (SF) Ian Noel Smith (AON) Malachy Steenson (IND)

🚨 NEW | Gillian Sherratt, the mother of the late Harvey Morrison, will be Sinn Féin’s candidate for the Dublin Central by-election.

🗳️ SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON POLL 🗳️ SF: 44 (+5) FF: 41 (-7) FG: 35 (-3) SD: 22 (+11) LAB: 9 (-2) IND IRE: 8 (+4) IND/OTHER: 7 (-10) PBP/S: 4 (+1) AONTÚ: 3 (+1) GREEN: 1 (N/C)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks) SF: 20% (-2 from last Indo poll) FG: 18% (+1) FF: 18% (N/C) IND/OTHER: 11% (N/C) SD: 10% (N/C) AONTU: 6% (N/C) IND IRE: 6% (+1) LAB: 4% (N/C) PBP/S: 4% (+1) GREEN: 3% (+1)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Group: Munster) SF: 23% FF: 18% IND/OTHER: 16% FG: 14% SD: 9% AONTÚ: 7% IND IRE: 4% LAB: 3% GREEN: 3% PBP/S: 2% Conducted by @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social (January 2026)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Group: Connacht/Ulster) SF: 27% FG: 19% IND/OTHER: 14% FF: 12% AONTÚ: 7% SD: 6% LAB: 6% IND IRE: 4% PBP/S: 4% GREEN: 1% Conducted by @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social (January 2026)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Group: Dublin) SF: 21% FG: 20% FF: 17% SD: 13% IND/OTHER: 10% LAB: 4% IND IRE: 4% PBP/S: 4% GREEN: 2% Conducted by @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social (January 2026)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Group: Leinster) SF: 27% FG: 18% FF: 13% IND/OTHER: 13% SD: 9% LAB: 6% IND IRE: 4% AONTÚ: 3% PBP/S: 3% GREEN: 3% Conducted by @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social (January 2026)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Age group: 55+) FG: 22% SF: 21% FF: 19% IND/OTHER: 16% SD: 8% AONTÚ: 5% LAB: 3% PBP/S: 2% GREEN: 2% Conducted by @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social (January 2026)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Age group: 35-54) SF: 27% FG: 18% FF: 15% IND/OTHER: 13% SD: 9% AONTÚ: 6% LAB: 4% IND IRE: 4% PBP/S: 3% GREEN: 2% Conducted by @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social (January 2026)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Age group: 18-34) SF: 26% SD: 13% FF: 10% FG: 9% IND/OTHER: 9% LAB: 8% PBP/S: 7% IND IRE: 7% AONTÚ: 5% GREEN: 4% Conducted by @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social (January 2026)

🗳️ SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON POLL 🗳️ SF: 49 (+10) FG: 39 (+1) FF: 36 (-12) SD: 22 (+11) IND/OTHER: 11 (-7) LAB: 9 (-2) IND IRE: 4 (N/C) AONTU: 3 (+1) PBP/S: 1 (-2) GREEN: 0 (-1)

🗳️ DÁIL ÉIREANN - Voting Intention (Red C/Business Post) SF: 24% (+2) FG: 18% (+1) FF: 15% (-3) IND/OTHER: 14% (N/C) SD: 10% (+2) AONTU: 5% (-1) LAB: 5% (+1) IND IRE: 4% (N/C) PBP/S: 3% (N/C) GREEN: 2% (-1)

🚨 BREAKING | Fianna Fáil’s Rules & Procedures Committee will consider Michael Cahill's conviction and his future in the party, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said.

🚨 BREAKING | Kerry Fianna Fáil TD, Michael Cahill, steps down as a member of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Justice, Home Affairs and Migration, following his dangerous driving conviction.

🚨 NEW | Kerry Fianna Fáil TD, Michael Cahill, has been convicted of dangerous driving and has been disqualified from driving for two years.

🗳️ GALWAY WEST BY-ELECTION | Sheila Garrity, former campaign manager for President Catherine Connolly, will stand in the Galway West by-election.