As the NBA tank-a-thon gathers pace, it is interesting to watch how the remedies become increasingly complex, and decreasingly disconnected from the problem. www.nytimes.com/athletic/705... What follows is a long thread, that will try and get at the problem, and suggest a solution.

End of year ratings following the Boxing Day Test. Australia end the year as the number one side, with South Africa the big mover up from 1080 at the beginning of the year

Updated Test Rankings. South Africa surging after the big wins in India. Australia was expected to beat England by 132 runs and did slightly better. Noting injuries England are still closer than the ratings would indicate.

Listening to Bertus is always a good use of your time. Glas to see this podcast back after a little hiatus.

There is something terribly gauche about Cricket Australia telling other countries they can't play Test cricket and might go bankrupt if they try. This wasn't an issue thirty years ago when there was significantly less money in cricket. It is an issue entirely derived from the financial structure

This was a fun but very nerdy wonk chat.

Ratings following the last three tests. Zimbabwe's recent run of matches means they have the highest games played since 2005, but also, their lowest ever rating. Very little change otherwise as they matched their expected margins in the previous test: ENG by 22 (exp: 8), AUS by 176 (exp: 166)

Updating Test ratings following the Australia and England games. Australia still the leading team by a reasonable margin. South Africa and India with strong form indicating potential to close the gap.

🎙️Red Inker Pod How does the ICC operate? podfollow.com/redinker

Today's episode of Cricket Sickos is with Emerging Cricket co-founder @danielbeswick.bsky.social, who talks to me about the origins of the Emerging Cricket network and his role helping to grow cricket with the ICC! open.spotify.com/episode/2o1A...

End of year Test Ratings before we start again. Australia on top. Teams remain very stable. NZ dropping back over the last few years is the only significant change of note, and even then it puts them back where they were in 2019.

You do wonder what the third umpire in a Blind Joel match thinks. Hanging out for the eventual hot mic dismissal of his abilities.

Ashwin's batting waned as his career progressed which meant he wasn't really a genuine all rounder. But half way through it he had a legitimate claim to having the highest wins above replacement per test of any player ever. Phenomenal record

If you want something to listen to at lunch of #NZvENG (or waiting for #AUSvIND), today's Cricket Sickos is with @anththehistorian.bsky.social - we discuss his research into Britain "civilising" its colonies using cricket, and hear about his amazing cricket origins! open.spotify.com/episode/6npC...

One more catch behind the wicket for a complete set. #ausvind

Promo for The Cricket Sickos Podcast now lives here! It's interviews with cricket obsessives, discussing the weird and wonderful ways we love the game. Guests include @linuxlea.bsky.social and @liebcricket.com. Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/5ks7hJt... Youtube: youtube.com/@aditrs7870?...

Adit invited me onto his podcast! It's called The Cricket Sickos Podcast as he interviews people about their cricketing life. We discuss that, associates, cricket structures and writing/commentary Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/3kDGhG… Youtube: youtu.be/89f3ppFpmLA?si=qBFE1ox3QUKglg-I

I also didn't discuss the (mostly) successful staging of the World Cup in the USA, or its prospects for the future. But while doing that other thread I stumbled across what I wrote in 2012, and it is basically exactly the same. web.archive.org/web/20230930...

As we roll into the T20 WC final, I want to reflect on the 20 team WC. A number of teams I was advocating for in 2010 (no really, it has been that long: web.archive.org/web/20230603...), and which in a way finally came to fruition.

One of the nice things about NRR is that if you multiply it by the number of matches played and by 20 you get (more or less) the run differential. So, for group 2: South Africa +25 West Indies +72 England +16 USA -116

Probabilities for each T20 World Cup group to follow. Getting good estimates of win probability is difficult because I haven't done a rating for T20 and am relying on the ICC (which is...ok, maybe) but also because the standard deviation of margin makes a significant difference on the odds of upset.

Canada's bowling is an embarrassment. Completely fell apart from a winnable position.

From an otherwise interesting article on older players. Leaving aside the inset that says BPM is a "replacement level", not "average" measurement, you'd think it would trigger that something was wrong with this when in some years *all groups* were below average. www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/a...

Been a while since I updated the ratings, which have tightened at the top with Australia and India declining relative to England. India still favoured by 69 runs. Sri Lanka by 181 runs over Afghanistan.