We Gen X have failed.

Some ABS talk and an interesting long-term portfolio idea. No paywall. And people think I only do bearish stuff... SMH. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/where-is-t... This year, a sampling of bullish calls $UBER -> 60 to 90 $TOST -> 30 to 40 $RDDT -> 95 to 256 Bearish home runs? $DUOL, $WING, more

Was talking to a few fellow publishers. They said, "People have started to intentionally put in typos and errors in their articles to mess up the AI training." One tech guy said, "They do clean up the data, you know." I said, "That requires more compute, no?"

When a company uses adjusted EBITDA, that in itself is beyond BS, after all, the great Charlie Munger used to call EBITDA BS earnings. Now imagine a company using adjusted FCF all the time, along with everything adjusted. An example of that, my friends, is $AN.

So nice of them. A stake and oversight, too.

Ere thou goest read this which I have beneth the lid of my token box. It applies to the borrower and the lender: Better a little caution than a great regret. - From the book, The Richest Man in Babylon.

Laughing my arse off here seeing $CVNA getting dumped, albeit a little, due to the whole ABS thingy, and $AN up for the day, albeit having lost the highs of the day. Efficient Market Hypothesis is bunkum because knowledge and ability are asymmetric. Reflexivity drives markets.

Psst ... long $INDA. Why? Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalization goes into effect on the 22nd. A massive consumption boost is expected. Trump and Modi are expected to talk soon. Trade deal and GOD CANDLE. Take it for what it is worth.

My banger long call for the year: $RDDT. It was not a medium term call but a buy and hold call. Up 174% since April 3. (Article in reply. It is free... now imagine how good the paid ones are.)

$WING might soon ban me from their restaurants. Here we go again... LOLz. (Article from August in the replies. It is free.)

The EU just gave Trump the middle finger.

Here is another reason why Trump wants some of the Russian oil off the market. Say it slowly: Caught between a rock and a hard place.

If only Buffett had bought $ORCL in 2020 instead of mucking around with $SNOW in 2020 and dumping it in August 2024, what could have been. Before any smart arse kid asks, here is the screenshot of what I said in September 2024 on my blog.

If only Buffett had bought $ORCL in 2020 instead of mucking around with $SNOW in 2020 and dumping it in August 2024, what could have been. Before any smart arse kid asks, here is the screenshot of what I said in September 2024 on my blog.

Prediction markets rate it close to a coin flip as to whether the Supreme Court will rule most of Trump's tariffs as (un)constitutional. My $0.02: Don't take legal advice from an economist, but can't see a credible reading that says they're legal. polymarket.com/event/will-t...

When the CEOs, who were recently at the roundtable with Trump, tell him, "Mr. President, we can create millions of more jobs at home if you remove the Section 232 tariffs, watch how fast those tariffs get dropped." Now, the art of it all will be timing it right.

Oh, man, look what I found in one of my articles on my blog. Pay attention to the date: August 9, 2024. In the context of the BLS's revision, I chuckled at my rant.

Oh, I understand there will be a fight here between the bulls and the bears. The bulls got short-term support; those who know the whole story are sitting back and watching the fun. The support will eventually fail to hold. When will it fail? I have no idea.

Here is something to think about. Bush imposed tariffs on steel imports in 2002 to protect the US steel industry, but lifted them in December 2003 after just 18 months. The whole metal space went crazy. China was gobbling everything up; who or who all could it be this time? 🤔

Most people with any grey matter knew the employment situation was bad. Why bother with the indices? Just go short the consumer discretionary stuff. Easiest ones? Restaurants, Specialty Retail, ... You could have made 50%+ shorting those. You don't believe me? Just read my blog.

Now that everybody is talking about gold, it is time for me to start talking about the Baltic Dry Index.

Small thread on WPM. You know why they will have a blowout quarter? Look at their cost basis for gold, and it hasn't changed much. (Charts and tables are from the end of January when WPM was trading at ~63, now ~106). No, they are not a miner, but a streamer. 1/3

Silver bulls, please send a thank note to the White House. As there are growing fears of tariffs on silver, NY silver futures are trading at $0.70 premium to London. This is pushing people to ship to the US to capture the premium and also increasing borrowing costs in London.

LG Energy has tentatively decided to postpone the start of its EV battery plant with Hyundai in Georgia. Hyundai has banned all US trips for its staff. - Korea Economic Daily.

Seasonally, the best period for Class 8 Truck Orders is September to December. We will now get to know how the freight industry is really doing. (Source for graph: FTR Transportation Intelligence).

If you are bullish gold, you got to have some $WPM. It's not your regular gold miner. It is a precious metal streaming company. Quite the interesting business model. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/precious-m...

Some weekend fun. Read "Quality of Earnings"? Name one stock that you hit a homerun with by applying the teachings of the book. Which learnings did you apply?

$GLD, monthly chart. What do you see?

Glad football season is here. Hopefully, my feed will be more wholesome than a constant barrage of politics.

$AXON some interesting findings. Why should one be careful? orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/tased

Remember, efficient market hypothesis is bunkum; reflexivity drives markets.

$DELL booked $5.6 billion of AI server orders in Q2, down from $12.1 billion in the previous period. The operating margin in Dell’s infrastructure unit, which includes server and networking sales, was 8.8% in the period v/s the estimate of 10.3%. Stuff ain't moving. Period.

My friends (NOT) at $DUOL are having a nice day again today. Stock down 6%. My readers must be having some fun with this one. From 530 to 303 now. More to go... all the way to zero. They insulted teachers, and the downfall started. Karma.

If Finished Goods > (Raw Materials + Work in Progress) by a wide margin => falling demand or simplistically, stuff ain't moving. $NVDA

$AFRM beats. Raises guidance; why not? Should be obvious people are doing great. Stock up 17% premarket.

Brazil's Foreign Ministry ordered government trade body Camex on Thursday evening to start analyzing whether a local reciprocity law could be used against the United States. - Reuters

How to detect accounting gimmicks and fraud in financial statements? Read: Financial Shenanigans by Howard M. Schilit. Has it helped me over the years? Most certainly. Much of what I write is based on learnings from the book.

Caterpillar expects a tariff hit of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion this year. $CAT down 3.4% after hours. Eventually they will have to raise prices.

30.3% fall in imports. Eventually inventories will have to be replenished. Q4 is when it all hits with a major spike in inflation.

50% tariffs on former strategic partner India now in effect.

Someone reminds me of Henry Blodget.

$UNH probe extends beyond Medicare. Why do people have to be heroes? Let the probe get over. If everything is kosher, buy it. Yeah, you will miss the initial pop, so what? You will have a long runway after that. Ah, Buffett bought it. 0.15% of his portfolio. It is just a nibble.

And Trump thinks Modi will talk to him? 😂

Google Translate takes on Duolingo with new language learning tools TechCrunch $DUOL

Curveball? Which class of shares do you own? That is net income attributable to you, not the consolidated net income. Now divide the Market Cap by that Net Income, that is the P/E you are paying. 22 P/E? 😂 $GOOGL is at 46 P/E. Yes, that is how it works. Undervalued anymore? LOL

Over the weekend, I issued an underperform rating on $DPZ. Among other things, I highlighted concerns about its business in India. Now you have the news of Modi not taking Trump's calls. Have fun. orcafin.beehiiv.com/p/domino-eff...

I appreciate the fact that $INTC needed a bailout. The issue is the way it was done and the optics of it. Now INTC is tied to the hip with Trump. 74% of INTC's revenues are international. Trump is mucking around with two of the top 5 economies: China and India. See the risk?

Once you understand this screenshot, you will understand why Google is not undervalued and will never be fully valued to its full potential. Also, read up on what a HoldCo discount is. $GOOG $GOOGL

We are entering peak harvest season. Getting a sticker shock at the grocery store? Oh, you have no idea what is coming. The movie has just started. I am not here to argue about policy, I am just letting you know the impact of the policy being enacted.

Now people will realize what tariffs mean. As postal services are temporarily suspended, you can't buy on Etsy or similar sites. When this gets resolved then there will be no more talk about who pays for tariffs.