An emboldened Gulf and an internally fractured, preoccupied United States makes a clearly defined defense treaty more urgent, starting bilaterally and then extending collectively to the GCC membership. – Bader Al-Saif

Federalism or any other sort of power decentralization, shaped by the realities on the ground, may be a path toward peace, representation, and accountability. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social

Should the pipeline come online, the Russia-China axis would reshape the map of gas competition, making adaptation the key determinant of which Gulf producers endure. – John Calabrese

Gulf leaders are aware that the United States does not necessarily respond to one-off attacks unless they are part of a clear cycle or threat – though such attacks appear increasingly more common in the Gulf. – Bader Al-Saif

The Kurdistan region has shown that decentralized governance can coexist with broader national frameworks and even thrive, given the opportunity and international support. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social

For Oman and the UAE, the next decade could decide whether they remain meaningful players in the LNG trade or are relegated to the margins by an unforgiving price environment. – John Calabrese

Critics of the system in northeast Syria note that actual governance inside the northeast, tends to be top-down, centralized, and deficient in transparency. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social

Iran has moved quickly to try to capitalize on cracks in U.S.-Gulf relations after Israel’s unprecedented attack on Hamas officials in Qatar. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

For Gulf exporters, the challenge is to adapt to a new era of intensified competition and shifting demand or risk being sidelined. – John Calabrese

The Gulf Arab states have been the Trump administration’s preferred regional partner as evidenced by his affinity for forceful leadership and first major trips abroad to the Gulf in both presidential terms. – Bader Al-Saif agsi.org/analysis/wha...

Iran’s Messaging After Israel’s Qatar Strike @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Gulf states need to prioritize enhanced regional defense cooperation with an expanded group of potential partners, consider using the financial leverage of sovereign wealth funds’ action, and ramp up diplomatic pressure to deter such attacks in the future. – Bader Al-Saif

Anyone in Israel or the United States who expected the history of tension between Qatar and other Gulf countries to prevent the states from coming together misread Gulf strategic thinking entirely. @ibishblog.bsky.social

The experiences of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and the Kurdistan region of Iraq illustrate that autonomous governance structures can function as stabilizing mechanisms. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social

Authoritarian structures and lack of inclusive governance fostered environments ripe for radicalization and terrorism, directly threatening Western security through both regional and transnational violence. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social

What Can the Gulf Do After the Attack on Qatar? – Bader Al-Saif agsi.org/analysis/wha...

Doha will likely look beyond Europe to South and Southeast Asia as the next frontier of demand growth. – John Calabrese

The GCC states now consider an attack on one to be an attack on all, and Saudi Arabia may be covered by a Pakistani rather than U.S. military umbrella. @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/isr...

Federalism and decentralization, though imperfect, have proved effective frameworks for governing diverse societies. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/cen...

While Qatar’s ultralow costs ensure competitiveness even in weak markets, competitiveness alone does not guarantee profitability at the massive scale envisioned. – John Calabrese

At UNGA Palestinian statehood is at the forefront. For background, read Kristin Smith Diwan's analysis on Saudi Arabia's campaign for Palestinian statehood. agsi.org/analysis/sau...

No Gulf producer is as directly affected by the Russia-China alignment as Qatar. – John Calabrese

Israel’s Attack on Qatar Forces a Gulf Strategic Realignment @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/isr...

In today's edition of the #IranMediaReview @alfoneh.bsky.social evaluates a speech by the supreme leader dismissing the possibility of negotiations with the United States. agsi.org/analysis/kha...

Khamenei Nixes Negotiations With Washington #IranMediaReview @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/kha...

For the better part of the last century, Syria and Iraq were ruled by highly centralized regimes that prioritized ethnic nationalism, militarization, and authoritarianism over pluralism, accountability, and power sharing. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social

For decades, Gulf producers preferred oil-linked long-term contracts. Yet China’s ability to secure ultracheap pipeline gas will strengthen its insistence on more flexible terms, potentially forcing Gulf exporters to adjust their models. – John Calabrese

Decentralized governance efforts in the region, while offering promise to societies fractured by years of dictatorship and war, will be messy, inconsistent, and vulnerable to reversal and external manipulation. @yerevansaeed.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/cen...

Under Vision 2030, the camel straddles the line between continuity and change, tribal identity and statecraft, and cultural revival and geopolitical strategy. @raphaelmago.bsky.social

Centralized Rule Is Not a Panacea for Failed States in the Middle East @yerevansaeed.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/cen...

The asymmetry in the Russia-China relationship is striking. In every major dimension of negotiation – from price to contract flexibility, from financing to timing – Beijing holds the upper hand. – John Calabrese agsi.org/analysis/the...

Beijing is ready to secure cheap long-term gas, exercise leverage over Russia, and assert a role as a decisive force in shaping the global gas market. – John Calabrese

In today's edition of the #IranMediaReview @Alfoneh.bsky.social analyzes Iranian commentary on the possibility of U.S.-Iranian negotiations during the U.N. General Assembly.

The camel, is emerging as a core symbol in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to reinvent its national narrative, project cultural power, and align economic development with environmental sustainability. @raphaelmago.bsky.social

Will Pezeshkian Meet Trump at the U.N. General Assembly? #IranMediaReview @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/wil...

This state-driven cultural renaissance seeks to recast Saudi Arabia as a center of regional creativity, heritage, and innovation. @raphaelmago.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/the...

VIDEO – Book Talk: Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China’s Middle East Math with Jonathan Fulton and Robert Mogielnicki. agsi.org/events/book-...

Narratives built around human-animal relationships, particularly those central to traditional life, are becoming tools for cultural diplomacy and identity reconstruction. @raphaelmago.bsky.social

Cheap Russian pipeline flows could weaken Asian LNG demand, depress global prices, and force Gulf exporters to rethink the foundations of their growth strategies. – John Calabrese agsi.org/analysis/the...

China and Kuwait have expanded their cooperation into sectors such as construction, logistics, and renewable energy, suggesting a growing appetite to broaden ties beyond oil.– Said Bakr

The Russia-China Gas Axis and the Gulf – John Calabrese agsi.org/analysis/the...

The coming days will determine whether the Presidential Leadership Council emerges as a functional governing body or dissolves into a symbol of Yemen’s enduring divisions. @bashareport.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/yem...

Development projects, covering renewable energy, infrastructure, logistics, and free economic zones are part of Kuwait and China’s effort to deepen economic ties under the Belt and Road Initiative and Kuwait Vision 2035. – Said Bakr

The camel is being deliberately repositioned by the Saudi leadership under MBS as a strategic instrument to recalibrate national identity, state legitimacy, and international soft power within the framework of Vision 2030. @raphaelmago.bsky.social

The Crown Prince Camel Festival symbolizes a unique facet of the political transformation ushered in by Crown Prince MBS, with the camel serving as a powerful emblem of strength and legitimacy for many communities across the Arabian Peninsula. @raphaelmago.bsky.social

A failed dialogue could trigger fragmentation within the anti-Houthi coalition, risking open conflict among rival factions and accelerating the collapse of the government. @bashareport.bsky.social

While hydrocarbons will likely continue to dominate Kuwait-China economic ties, recent momentum in various sectors signals an increasing willingness to expand cooperation beyond oil to meet both countries’ long-term strategic interests. – Said Bakr

As Saudi Arabia seeks to reposition itself as a leading regional and global actor, its embrace of camel diplomacy reflects a sophisticated recalibration of tradition for modern ends. @raphaelmago.bsky.social

Appointing an entirely new president from outside the current members of the council would dramatically reshape Yemen’s political landscape. @bashareport.bsky.social

As Saudi Arabia seeks to reposition itself as a leading regional and global actor, its embrace of camel diplomacy reflects a sophisticated recalibration of tradition for modern ends. @raphaelmago.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/the...