A lot of things here for Bluesky-ers to think about… open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...

My comments on Trump’s 50% EU and 25% Apple tariff moment youtu.be/UnHVr66OMoo

The problem here is you’re not comparing like with like. There must be other reasons why such a high % of people are claiming out of work benefits when we have more of less full employment. It’s an anomaly which requires explanation.

Thanks to Deutsche Welle for an extended interview on the US China trade war -> embargo -> de-escalation for now and strategically , what it all means youtube.com/watch?v=-4PO...

Trump says China trade tslks in Switz ‘total reset’. No stranger to hyperbole, him, but total reset is precisely what’s going on in world trade and much related to it, as I explain here: youtube.com/watch?v=7gEk...

Through the looking glass folks, abs ridiculous - Woman wins £30,000 compensation for being compared to Darth Vader

While the U.S. and China jostle, too many politicians and commentators have naively concluded the answer to trade more with the biggest mercantilist that only wants to export more to them. Dumb. Talk of cosying up to China is a dangerous fantasy www.thetimes.com/article/018b...

I think we are learning something rather different. That large structural surplus economies, by imposing -ve welfare consequences on own population, force deficits and welfare losses on other countries. Which is why so many are raising ‘trade defence measures’ against the same surplus country.

Bbg’s Natthew Brooker on the UK Treasury and finance sectir interesrs naivete and weak acumen in setting the Lab Govt’s china policy www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

When you write an article like this, it helps to know something about the political economy of the country you’re writing about, and how it works and what doesn’t. AndrewMarr comes up short here 1/2 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

Good piece. I think Hatzius is right. US$ depreciation is not the same as loss of reserve currency status. It’s a bear market, not a bare market.

Can’t see Trump firing him, myself. Even if he did, Powell is just one vote on the FOMC, and while you’d have been laughed out for saying this when he was appointed, he’s a pretty imp dude in scheme of things now

Interview w/ ‘The Market’s Mark Ditti on the US China trade war, or more like, embargo. many topics but in a nutshell, cajoling one another into talks still seems likely, but nothing can thrn clock back or reset this fractured relationship. themarket.ch/interview/ge...

Technically a serious and content heavy research paper. But there’s also a far simpler political explanation which is rooted in CCP historical narratives, the embrace of unprecedented industrial scale industrial policy after 2005, and Leninist thinking and ambition carried to new levels by Xi.

About time the governors there et al developed a spine. Let’s hope they stand firm against all intimidation

Well….. I’m struggling to think of anything Ed Miliband has done or plotted that didn’t end up toxic or snafu’d….

No question that politicians and markets (now just fear) were not braced for China's escalatory response. But this doesn't mean, despite awful optics now, that there wont be a deal at some point. Interesting q is who, by then, will hold the stronger cards 1/4 www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

Spokecwith @Deutsche Welle about Trump’s tariffs and China’s escalatory riposte youtu.be/bC3jZWm4pEI?...

Time to move on from ‘asinine and inept’ which it is, and try to get to grips with implications. Check out the Asian tariff changes eg vs Latam etc. Trump is setting out to break up the China/Asia supply chains laboriously created in the last 20 odd years 1/4

In which I set out the reasons that 65% tariffs would hurt China, even though the exports affected are not that big as % GDP, and what China might do about it, including try for a deal with Trump. How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...

This, as usual, is a well written but it’s not without weaknesses. Here are 3. 1/4

🇨🇳 ‘The government is certainly not planning to change its mercantilist economic model away from the emphasis on industrial policies and exports, despite new measures to appear more consumer-focused,’ writes @george17.bsky.social, in a new #Investigator #ObservingChina

In this piece, I take an in-depth look at the CCP's economic deliberations at the NPC earlier this month. Plenty of rhetoric about the need to boost consumption. A few takeaways here 1/3 China’s National People’s Congress 2025 and the economy: Misdiagnosis open.substack.com/pub/chinaobs...

Globalisation as we knew it may be over says HSBC, which doesn’t blink twice in cozying up to Beijing which is a prime instigator of the breakdown in globalisation as we knew it

So true. Lots of students have been not taken care of well by the university. Appalling governance standards

Interesting Eichengreen essay and even for those of us who think the $ is a reserve asset like no other predecessor, the arguments that it’s mainly the USA that can puncture its own currency’s global role rings true. With a caveat 1/2

Prof Steve Tsang and I podcast on China pst the National People's Congress. Will, could even, China boost consumption finally, as promised? How will China mange Trump's tariffs? Steve also considers Xi, subject of recent book, and Chinese politics. soas-china-institute.buzzsprout.com/1669327/epis...

Author writes here that Beijing is angsty about the 'reverse Kissinger' , ie the US cozying up to Russia to put blue water btw China and Russia. While this is a scenario, it seems unlikely 1/4 China’s partnership with Russia needs to have limits www.ft.com/content/880b...

I actually titled this 'Breaking up is hard to do'. Not impossible, obv, but thinking systemically rather than about individuals, and about the world's major US-China faultline , id say there are Atlantic ties and binds that will ebdure somehow. 1/2 engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...

Pot. Kettle. Black.

I should’ve thought the answer to this was blindingly obvious. The q should be ‘Will Europe …’, not ‘How should…’

Watch this from abt 2.50 to 1240. Riveting interview with ex MI6 head Sir Alex Younger. Calm, considered reasoning about what’s going on, such contrast to so much drivel that ppl spout. www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...

Me and @cliffordcoonan.bsky.social chat about China: youtube.com/watch?v=yBbp...

Absolutely. Meltdown mania with full regalia

Well pitched piece by Matthew Parris on the recent Munich appeasement hyperbole. So much toy throwing ex prams going on alongside genuine concerns abt how to manage awkward but inevitable change www.thetimes.com/article/a3f1...

Varoufakis knows all about quaking. Accomplished practitioner after he’d put his country thru the wringer

🔬 ‘HM Government should pursue…an industrial strategy designed to exploit and scale up the nation’s innovation capacity in science and technology,’ argues @george17.bsky.social, Advisory Board Member, China Observatory #BritainsWorld #BigAsk

Unbelievable clawback

I think this exactly right as explained here. The countermeasures are pretty modest, probably designed to show the flag, but tempt Trump into talks. So far, though, nor worjing 1/3 unherd.com/2025/02/a-tr...

Mmmm… seeing is believing.

China’s innovation paradox | @george17.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/notebook/chi...

In which I look through a Deepseek lens to consider the dichotomous state of China's economy, and, indeed, the curious case of China’s innovation paradox engelsbergideas.com/notebook/chi...

So, with 30 day delays now re both Canada and Mexico tariffs while deals are concluded, all the rabbit holes in the world are full of ppl who aren’t that good at reading Trump but think they can.

Good explainer why it was more a hyperbole than a sputnik moment. engelsbergideas.com/notebook/chi... Also there’s more to ‘innovation’ than just a word to hawk around. Some is efficiency, scale and cost - chinas strength. Some is tech frontiers - America’s.

Indeed. That’s a perfect riposte to the natalists too. We have to develop our coping mechanisms better

Good thoughts laid out here… and probably we are still in the foothills of AI. so no fawning or frowning at Deepseek.

Interesting circumstantials on whether China actually got even close to 5% gdp growth in 2024, ie prob missed by a country mile. The trouble is it’s trying hard to push it up again, so let’s see if China’s carbon intensity has actually turned a corner. Of it’s still functionally about GDP

No q that Deepseek has set cat among pigeons. But between the predictable fawning and the frowning, lie some important points you can read here open.substack.com/pub/chinatal...

Rachel Reeves' trip to China a week ago needed to happen, but the govt's claims that it gels with and will result in growth policies is not the reason. Finance and politics are calling the shots. Why Rachel Reeves will not find much growth in China www.observingchina.org.uk/p/why-rachel...