John M. Drake
@jdrakephd.bsky.social
📤 1173
đź“Ą 81
đź“ť 90
Professor of Ecology at the University of Georgia. Views are my own.
http://jdrakephd.substack.com
pinned post!
Hi folks - I've mostly migrated to substack. Would love to see my friends here follow me over there, too. It's the main place I'll be posting about ecology, environment, health, epidemiology, academia, and related topics.
jdrakephd.substack.com
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Drake's Dispatches | John Drake | Substack
Occasional essays and reflections on science, health, environment, and the policies that shape them. Click to read Drake's Dispatches, by John Drake, a Substack publication.
https://jdrakephd.substack.com/
3 months ago
0
2
0
reposted by
John M. Drake
New AAM-AGU report on climate change and infectious diseases, from attribution science to public health preparedness. I was part of the colloquium behind it. A good roadmap for where this field goes next.
asm.org/reports/role-of-climate-change-on-emerging-and-reemerging
2 days ago
3
5
2
New AAM-AGU report on climate change and infectious diseases, from attribution science to public health preparedness. I was part of the colloquium behind it. A good roadmap for where this field goes next.
asm.org/reports/role-of-climate-change-on-emerging-and-reemerging
2 days ago
3
5
2
The test-negative design has real statistical limitations. It also recovers the right answer when checked against randomized trials.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Acting CDC Director Jay Bhattacharya Called A Vaccine Study Design 'Crap.' What The Test-Negative Design Is And How We Know Whether Vaccines Measured With It Are Effective
Jay Bhattacharya dismissed the test-negative design as 'crap.' The biostatistics literature tells a different story.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/05/11/acting-cdc-director-jay-bhattacharya-called-a-vaccine-study-design-crap-what-the-test-negative-design-is-and-how-we-know-whether-vaccines-measured-with-it-are-effective/
6 days ago
1
40
17
COVID infected 17% of the Diamond Princess in a month. Hantavirus: 5% of the Hondius in five weeks. The biology explains why this outbreak won't scale.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Why Hantavirus Will Not Be The Next Pandemic
An ecologist explains why the hantavirus cruise ship outbreak, while serious, will not become the next pandemic. The biology of Andes virus limits large-scale spread.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/05/07/why-hantavirus-will-not-be-the-next-pandemic/
10 days ago
2
32
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What if the biggest predictor of zoonotic disease isn't which species carries it, but how much we trade it? New Science paper quantifies pathogen sharing in traded species.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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"No Trade Is Safe." New Evidence Links Wildlife Trade To Human Disease
A new study in Science finds that the longer a mammal species is traded, the more pathogens it shares with humans. An ant ecologist's data reframe zoonotic risk.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/05/06/no-trade-is-safe-new-evidence-links-wildlife-trade-to-human-disease/
11 days ago
1
3
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Marine parasites are increasing but still vastly understudied. New book from Jeb Byers,
@johnwares.bsky.social
, and
@blakeslee-lab.bsky.social
covers coral disease to parasite evolution across 18 chapters. Out June 5 from Oxford UP in the EEID series.
11 days ago
1
2
1
How does a rodent-borne virus end up on a cruise ship? Three dead, six suspected cases of hantavirus aboard the MV Hondius. The ship left from Andes virus territory.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Three Dead From Hantavirus On An Antarctic Cruise Ship. How Did They Get It?
Three dead from hantavirus on Antarctic cruise ship MV Hondius. An ecologist explains the three scenarios for how passengers contracted this rare rodent-borne disease.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/05/04/three-dead-from-hantavirus-on-an-antarctic-cruise-ship-how-did-they-get-it/
13 days ago
0
3
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What happens when publish-or-perish meets AI? A journal's editorial team measured it. Submissions up 42%, writing worse, and the editors had to double their staff to cope.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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AI Slop Is Flooding Academic Journals. A Top Journal Measured It
A top management journal measured AI’s impact on submissions and reviews. Submissions rose 42%, writing quality declined and AI reviews proved uninformative to editors.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/04/30/ai-slop-is-flooding-academic-journals-a-top-journal-measured-it/
17 days ago
0
19
12
New
#Flu
#Biotech
. Airway organoids from ten wildlife species, two flu strains. All produced infectious virus — in one primate it acquired mutations shifting toward avian receptors.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Miniature Airways Grown In A Lab Reveal Which Animals Flu Can Infect
Lab-grown miniature airways from wildlife reveal which species influenza can infect and how the virus adapts to new hosts.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/04/28/miniature-airways-grown-in-a-lab-reveal-which-animals-flu-can-infect/
19 days ago
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Rich Sutton's much-cited essay "The Bitter Lesson" is usually read as a verdict on human cleverness: scale wins, our theories of thinking lose. Read it again. The corollary is that minds are richer than our models of them. That's not bitter at all.
jdrakephd.substack.com/p/the-bitter...
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The Bitter Lesson, Reconsidered
I find myself in conversation almost daily about how AI—especially large language models and agentic systems—is changing our lives.
https://jdrakephd.substack.com/p/the-bitter-lesson-reconsidered
19 days ago
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The National Science Board has had staggered six-year terms since 1950, by design. On Friday all 24 members were fired by email. The next board meeting is May 5.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Trump Fired The Entire National Science Board. Here's Why That Matters
Trump fired all 24 members of the National Science Board, the body that oversees NSF. The institutional design that built American science is at stake.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/04/25/trump-fired-the-entire-national-science-board-heres-why-that-matters/
22 days ago
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Add enough environmental noise to a mosquito-borne disease model and epidemics that R0 says should happen simply don't. But at intermediate noise, you get the biggest outbreaks. New paper in PLOS Comp Biol with Kyle Dahlin, Karin Ebey, and John Vinson.
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
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Nonlinear effects of noise on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases
Author summary Climate change is expected to cause drastic changes in the spread of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks, both in where they occur and in their size. A key aspect of climate change is an i...
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013466
24 days ago
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How does a shrimp virus end up in human eyes? A new study in Nature Microbiology traces the path.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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A Virus From Farmed Seafood Is Causing A New Eye Disease In People
A shrimp virus called CMNV has jumped into humans, causing a new eye disease linked to handling and eating raw seafood. The virus is already global.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/04/22/a-virus-from-farmed-seafood-is-causing-a-new-eye-disease-in-people/
25 days ago
1
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Complex epidemic models are hard to interpret. We used conditional SHAP + a neural network surrogate to identify what drives multi-strain dynamics and how those drivers interact. New paper in Scientific Reports.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Explaining complex dynamical systems using conditional SHAP analysis with application to multi-variant epidemic dynamics - Scientific Reports
Understanding and explaining the dynamics of complex systems is a critical yet challenging task. Such a challenge often arises from high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and randomness, which together ma...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-46167-9
25 days ago
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An AI agent replicated a landmark economics paper live for the Federal Reserve for $11. Then the economist behind the demo asked whether the same tool was quietly de-skilling him. My conversation with him:
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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An Economist Lectures The Fed On AI And The Future Of Knowledge Work
Economist Scott Cunningham showed the Fed how AI agents can replicate studies for $11—and why the same tools could erode the expertise that makes research worth reading.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/04/21/an-economist-lectures-the-fed-on-ai-and-the-future-of-knowledge-work/
26 days ago
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We tested 30 models for forecasting flu hospitalizations across 48 states. One auto-tuned model with a single covariate beat ensembles of 64. The key: forecast growth rates, not counts, and use national trends to predict state-level dynamics.
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A single autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable outperforms ensembles of autoregressive models for forecasting influenza hospitalizations in the contiguous United States
Abstract. Infectious disease forecasting is important to public health decision-making, particularly for mitigating the burden of seasonal influenza. We pr
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2025.0813
27 days ago
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An AI system ran a full scientific study end-to-end, and one of its papers beat the median human submission at a major ML workshop. The economics are the real story — a draft paper for a few dollars in compute, landing on institutions that were not built for it.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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An AI System Passed Peer Review. The Scientific Community Isn’t Ready
An AI system automated the full arc of scientific research and passed peer review. Its creators say it could fix science's worst habits — but the risks are just as real.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/04/13/an-ai-system-passed-peer-review-the-scientific-community-isnt-ready/
about 1 month ago
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Remote islands protect plants from disease. But isolation also favors large-leaved species — and big leaves are easy targets. Two forces, working against each other. New piece in Forbes.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Why Plants On Remote Islands Are Healthier
Plants on remote islands get less disease — but isolation reshapes which species dominate, and those species are the most vulnerable to infection.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2026/03/31/plants-on-remote-islands-are-healthier---but-not-as-much-as-scientists-predicted/
about 2 months ago
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(Potentially) unpopular opinion. Too long for BlueSky so please read on Substack.
jdrakephd.substack.com/p/in-praise-...
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In Praise of the AI-Drafted Email
I’m going to risk sounding contrarian: I like receiving AI-written emails.
https://jdrakephd.substack.com/p/in-praise-of-the-ai-drafted-email
2 months ago
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Hi folks - I've mostly migrated to substack. Would love to see my friends here follow me over there, too. It's the main place I'll be posting about ecology, environment, health, epidemiology, academia, and related topics.
jdrakephd.substack.com
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Drake's Dispatches | John Drake | Substack
Occasional essays and reflections on science, health, environment, and the policies that shape them. Click to read Drake's Dispatches, by John Drake, a Substack publication.
https://jdrakephd.substack.com/
3 months ago
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New paper out today 🧵 Flexible methods for species distribution modeling with small samples (Ecography, OA).
nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
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Flexible methods for species distribution modeling with small samples
Species distribution models (SDMs) predict where species live or could potentially live and are a key resource for ecological research and conservation decision-making. However, current SDM methods o....
https://nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecog.08112
4 months ago
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3
reposted by
John M. Drake
Brian Maitner
4 months ago
This
#openaccess
work was a collaborative effort with Robbie Richards, Ben Carlson,
@jdrakephd.bsky.social
, and Cory Merow. All code and data are freely available on Github (
github.com/bmaitner/sma...
) or Dryad (
doi.org/10.5061/drya...
).
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Dryad | Data: Flexible methods for species distribution modeling with small samples
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.0vt4b8hc2
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After experimenting for a few months, I've decided mostly to migrate over to Substack. I hope those who follow me here and previously followed me on Twitter will forgive the disruption and click below to follow me there.
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
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Our new paper in
#HealthSecurity
argues that epidemic intelligence needs a
#systems-of-systems
framework—integrating
#epidemiology
, behavior, supply chains, policy, and ecology—rather than siloed models that talk past one another. Includes an
#H5N1
case study.
www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Leveraging Systems-of-Systems Analysis to Strengthen Epidemic Intelligence for Preparedness and Response | Health Security
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant gaps in the coordination and integration of efforts required to effectively manage large-scale infectious disease outbreaks. A successful response to such cri...
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1177/23265094251396048
5 months ago
0
2
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A challenge in epidemic forecasting is that ML models overfit while mechanistic models miss changing transmission conditions. Our new JR Soc Interface paper tests whether physics-informed neural networks—which embed an epidemiological ODE system inside a neural net—can address this.
6 months ago
1
6
4
reposted by
John M. Drake
Biological modeling is organized inquiry, but how should we think about the process? My new paper in
#EcologyLetters
argues that we should model like experimentalists: define treatments, measure responses, validate, perturb, repeat. 👉
doi.org/10.1111/ele....
Do you agree?
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70251
6 months ago
3
17
10
reposted by
John M. Drake
New essay out in
#Science
: why is the human fatality rate from the current
#H5N1
outbreak so much lower than in past outbreaks? I explore three possible explanations—and what they mean for pandemic risk.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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Understanding avian influenza mortality
Three theories could explain why the North American H5N1 epidemic has not been more deadly
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adx7159
8 months ago
0
2
3
reposted by
John M. Drake
Newly expanded version of my guide to scientific writing -- known as the “15 steps” -- published in PLOS Computational Biology. Special thanks to Éric Marty for creating a fantastic visualization. Check it out:
journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...
#ScientificWriting
#PLOSComputationalBiology
8 months ago
1
43
28
Excited to share that I’m joining
@bigbiology.bsky.social
this season as a recurring guest host. Marty Martin and I teamed up on my first episode with
@jaapderoode.bsky.social
, and it's just dropped. Hope you enjoy it.
#diseaseecology
add a skeleton here at some point
6 months ago
0
4
0
reposted by
John M. Drake
Oxford Martin School
6 months ago
“Globalisation, global change and emerging infectious diseases” with
@jdrakephd.bsky.social
How do globalisation and climate change influence the rise of new pandemics? Join in person or online – open to all. Register:
www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/globa...
Stream:
youtube.com/live/80kXZlQ...
1
3
3
Biological modeling is organized inquiry, but how should we think about the process? My new paper in
#EcologyLetters
argues that we should model like experimentalists: define treatments, measure responses, validate, perturb, repeat. 👉
doi.org/10.1111/ele....
Do you agree?
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70251
6 months ago
3
17
10
Why are flu vaccination rates stuck? We studied how “medical mindsets” (naturalist/technologist, minimalist/maximalist, doubter/believer) affect vaccine hesitancy. These attitudes matter and could help tailor communication to boost uptake. Read about it in
#Vaccine
👉
doi.org/10.1016/j.va...
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Redirecting
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.127804
8 months ago
0
2
0
What if we take a systems approach to thinking about transboundary animal diseases? Our framework, just out in
#TrendsInParasitology
, suggests common vulnerabilities and opportunities for intervention.
#TADs
authors.elsevier.com/a/1lshW5Eb1x...
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https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1lshW5Eb1xN6nY
8 months ago
0
0
0
New essay out in
#Science
: why is the human fatality rate from the current
#H5N1
outbreak so much lower than in past outbreaks? I explore three possible explanations—and what they mean for pandemic risk.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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Understanding avian influenza mortality
Three theories could explain why the North American H5N1 epidemic has not been more deadly
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adx7159
8 months ago
0
2
3
Newly expanded version of my guide to scientific writing -- known as the “15 steps” -- published in PLOS Computational Biology. Special thanks to Éric Marty for creating a fantastic visualization. Check it out:
journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...
#ScientificWriting
#PLOSComputationalBiology
8 months ago
1
43
28
How do human-wildlife interfaces and seasonality interact during disease emergence? Our team has created a model, inspired by the
#spillover
of
#Ebola
, to better understand the interplay. Read more about our research:
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
8 months ago
0
6
3
Science philanthropy is alive and well. Schmidt Sciences has just announced eight new awards through its Schmidt Polymaths program.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Saad Bhamla Is A Polymath
Philanthropy backs bold science as federal funds shrink. Schmidt Polymaths support Saad Bhamla’s work on biomechanics of everyday organisms from ripple bugs to flamingos.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2025/09/16/saad-bhamla-is-a-polymath/
8 months ago
0
2
0
reposted by
John M. Drake
Juliana Taube
8 months ago
Ever read a paper & think, "wow 🤩 that was well written"? Learn how to write your own *wow* paper with
@midas-network.bsky.social
trainees on Thurs 9/25 @ noon ET. We'll hear from
@jdrakephd.bsky.social
on strategies for crafting & communicating a good story. đź”—
georgetown.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
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Interesting work by Kris Parag and Sandor Beregi using model predictive control for timing NPIs. 👉 Read my Forbes piece:
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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An Algorithm For Controlling Epidemics
Researchers adapt model predictive control from engineering to epidemic response, balancing health and economic costs under noisy, delayed data.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2025/09/09/an-algorithm-for-controlling-epidemics/
8 months ago
0
1
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Universities everywhere are now grappling with policies on the use of AI in research and writing, raising fascinating broader questions about how AI might (or should) figure in scholarly work. What are your thoughts—beyond the usual tropes (“AI isn’t an author,” “the human is responsible,” etc.)?
8 months ago
1
1
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Full details of
#H5N1
infection in a San Francisco child last year—with no known source—were just published in the MMWR. Case report →
www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes...
My take at
forbes.com
→
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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California Child Infected With H5N1 Bird Flu, Source Unknown
CDC reports a San Francisco child infected with H5N1 bird flu in December 2024; source unknown. Case highlights risk to general population.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2025/09/05/california-child-infected-with-h5n1-bird-flu-source-unknown/
8 months ago
0
1
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Trying something new: a Substack. It’s called Drake’s Dispatches. Occasional essays, columns, and notes on science, health, environment, and other stuff. First post is up:
jdrakephd.substack.com
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Drake's Dispatches | John Drake | Substack
I'm John, a professor writes about science, health, environment, and the policies that shape them. Click to read Drake's Dispatches, by John Drake, a Substack publication.
https://jdrakephd.substack.com/
9 months ago
0
1
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What stands out to me is not only the scale of the mobilization, but the silence it has met. When the top 0.1% of scientists, engineers, and physicians are compelled to act collectively, you would expect their message to command attention.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Two Thousand Of America’s Top Scientists Warn Congress: Don’t Gut Research Funding
Open letter from 2,100+ National Academy members warns Congress of dire consequences from FY26 science budget cuts; organizers seek response.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2025/08/30/two-thousand-of-americas-top-scientists-warn-congress-dont-gut-research-funding/
9 months ago
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We finally have a proper breakdown of the 70 human cases of H5N1 in the USA thanks to Melissa Rolfes and other CDC scientists. Great paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
My thoughts here:
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Bird Flu In The US: Seventy Human Cases, Mostly Mild, But With Warning Signs
Seventy U.S. H5N1 cases reveal unusual patterns: fewer deaths than abroad but much higher risk than seasonal flu
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2025/08/27/bird-flu-in-the-us-seventy-human-cases-mostly-mild-but-with-warning-signs/
9 months ago
0
3
1
An ambitious new report, commissioned by
#TheLancet
, seeks to reframe
#OneHealth
to be an even more encompassing framework. I spoke with co-chairs Andrea Winkler and John Amuasi about their process. The report:
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
My interview:
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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The Lancet One Health Commission: harnessing our interconnectedness for equitable, sustainable, and healthy socioecological systems
Industrialisation, urbanisation, and globalisation have substantially improved human life expectancy over the past century. In tandem, an expanding array of interlinked threats to humans, other animal...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00627-0/fulltext
9 months ago
0
22
12
A rare Salmonella strain has reemerged in the US, traced to pet bearded dragons. 27 cases, mostly infants. Same strain as 10 yrs ago. My take in Forbes on what this means for public health—and for the reptile trade.
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Bearded Dragons Linked To Multi-state Outbreak Of Rare Salmonella Serovar In Children
A rare Salmonella outbreak tied to pet bearded dragons sickened children in 14 states, raising questions about reptile trade and public health.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2025/08/22/bearded-dragons-linked-to-multi-state-outbreak-of-rare-salmonella-in-children/
9 months ago
0
1
0
Given the tremendous diversity of microorganisms in the world, why do only a small fraction cause disease? My essay in
#PLOSBiology
argues that the answer is lack of opportunity and that humans encounter only one new bacterial pathogen for every 1.4b years lived.
journals.plos.org/plosbiology/...
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Why are there so few pathogens? Ecology and evolution in pathogen emergence
Why are there so few pathogens, and what determines their emergence? This Perspective argues that ecological and evolutionary forces (host availability, geographic exposure and microbial innovation) w...
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3003329
9 months ago
0
33
14
I spoke with Kari Jordan and Erin Becker of The Carpentries about why they declined a $1.5M NSF grant intended to expand data science training. Their decision highlights the growing intersection of
#science
,
#DEI
, and federal policy. Read the full story on Forbes:
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
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Nonprofit Refuses $1.5M Science Grant Due To New Federal DEI Rules
A coding nonprofit turned down a $1.5M NSF grant after new DEI restrictions, highlighting the clash between federal policy and scientific community values.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2025/08/08/nonprofit-refuses-15m-science-grant-due-to-new-federal-dei-rules/
9 months ago
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27
New in
#EcologyLetters
: How does extinction time scale with habitat size? An experiment with
#Daphnia
found strong support for power law—not exponential—scaling. A rare test of a big theoretical question. Link:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
#Ecology
#Extinction
#Scaling
#Microcosms
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Scaling of Extinction Time With Habitat Size in Experimental Populations
Theory predicts that extinction time scales with carrying capacity as either an exponential or power law. Extinction time in 35 laboratory populations was more consistent with a power law than expone....
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.70178
10 months ago
0
15
4
reposted by
John M. Drake
Chris Wymant
11 months ago
Congrats to
@jdrakephd.bsky.social
on the important achievement of winning our* infectious disease pub quiz. Honorable mentions to Corin Yeats, Luca Ferretti,
@christophraser.bsky.social
and
@aliciagill.bsky.social
* the Pandemic Sciences Institute; Data, Epidemiology and Analytics section
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