As communities continue to feel the awful repercussions of Bondi, governments will be asking themselves what they can do to keep people safer... A wider interpretation of extremism may help flag dangerous individuals in future. My piece for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social tinyurl.com/332ec4fb

Similar to the New Orleans attack in January, IS has obliquely taken credit for inspiring the #bondiattack in #Sydney - but not for being operationally involved. Fits an emerging pattern of IS claims since summer last year in which IS blurs the line of what constitutes an IS attack

I shared some thoughts for BBC News on the trip made by the #bondibeach attack gunmen to the Philippines, allegedly for "military style training". IS operational capacity in the #Philippines has been low-level following a peak of activity around 2017-2019

Mali's Timbuktu region has been the focus of multiple pieces of #JNIM propaganda in recent weeks, where the group seems to be making extra efforts to win hearts and minds. This includes two statements condemning Africa Corps "executions" of civilians - a rarity since Wagner left in June

IS #Syria has officially claimed yesterday's attack in Aleppo which reportedly killed two Syrian govt customs officers. This comes on the heels of a rare attack - the first since 2018 - in Idlib province, traditionally a stronghold of HTS, and also rare #Islamicstate attacks in Homs and Hama

I spoke to @bellingcat.com about #JNIM's communication strategy in #Mali and how the group is articulating its ambitions at a critical point in the long-running jihadist insurgency Great immersive investigative piece from Sebastian Vandermeersch, and insights from Héni Nsaibia tinyurl.com/ys3exbh5

#JNIM claims killing 139+ people in its latest infographic poster rounding up attacks from November. Claimed fatalities fell from last month (187) but remain significantly higher than September (96) when resources began being poured into the #Mali fuel blockade

X's decision to display the geolocalisation of accounts has exposed dozens of prominent #Sahel pro-junta and pro-Russia influencers/trolls as based in the West, according to this article by LSI Africa. Many of them appear to be operating out of #France www.lsi-africa.com/fr/actualite...

The latest #JNIM preaching photoset from #Mali shows unusually large crowds (seemingly around 100 in one photo), and almost a dozen individual locations Most previous examples of such propaganda typically focused on one or two locations and showed smaller gatherings

Sept-Nov have seen a return of heavy clashes between #JNIM and #IS Sahel, according to IS claims. Clashes on this scale have been unprecedented since late 2022, during territory disputes in eastern #Mali's Menaka region in the context of French troop withdrawal

The Catholic Bishops of Mali have cancelled a pilgrimage to the Marian shrine of Kita in the western Kayes Region (scheduled for 29-30 November), citing the fuel crisis caused by #JNIM's blockade, according to Malijet malijet.com/a_la_une_du_...

Local Malian daily newspaper Le Soir de Bamako reports on the public execution of prominent TikToker by suspected jihadists. Shocking news like this couldn't come at a worse time for #Bamako, where tensions are already high after more than two months of #JNIM's blockade in southern #Mali

On 31 October, UN Comtrade finally published 2024 gold import data from the UAE. The data showed undeniable increases in imports of gold linked to conflict, and known smuggling hubs of conflict (or "blood") gold. They are highlighted green, namely... (cont. below)

Further signs of tension in Bamako caused by #JNIM's fuel blockade. Local media in #Mali are reporting misconduct by police officers at gas stations in Bamako, accusing security forces of exacerbating the crisis through hoarding and resale bamada.net/crise-de-car...

There is good reason to be sceptical about JNIM's alleged link to the Kaiama attack in Nigeria's Kwara state - one that many have touted as "JNIM's first attack in Nigeria"

The moment that some forty fuel tankers reportedly arrived in Bamako on 29/30 Oct, after the govt struck a prisoner release deal with #JNIM. The group apparently immediately reimposed the blockade again after the convoy arrived, amidst a school shutdown in #Mali

Yesterday's major ambush on the fuel convoy accompanied by the Malian army near the Kayes/Koulikoro border, seen in clips circulated in local groups

The second time #JNIM has claimed attacking fuel convoys in #Mali through its official al-Zallaqa media outlet. This attack allegedly took place today near Bamako, on the RN24, a key road going West to Kayes and then to Senegal, Mali's main source of fuel imports

After initially trying to play down #JNIM's fuel blockade, the #Malian government's decision to suspend schools until 9 November is an admission of how serious the situation is becoming

In recent weeks it has been unusual for #JNIM to broadcast its attacks on fuel tankers in #Mali through its centralised al-Zallaqa media outlet. Claims for these attacks have largely come informally through locally circulated videos, often with the new "al-Fath" branding

It’s that time of year again. BBC Monitoring's jihadist media team just published its data-driven quarterly report on jihadism in sub-Saharan #Africa for Q3 2025 Each quarter we look at the key developments in the five main African conflict zones where jihadist groups operate

This video apparently shows a #JNIM spox warning Malians in Bambara against helping the military, to comply with JNIM as blockade enters 6th week Note unusual media branding: "al-Fath Channel" (Chaine al-Fath), apparently a new - or little known - media outlet carrying messages in local languages

Following its deadly ambush on the main road between Bamako and Segou in #Mali on 1 Oct, #JNIM circulated footage from the scene showing several bodies, apparently Malian soldiers

Last week I spoke to @johnsimpsonnews.bsky.social on BBC2's Unspun World about Ahmed al-Sharaa's appearance at the UN, #Syria's reintegration into the international and MENA regional community, and prospects for the future Syrian social contract

Despite the rise in attacks, #JNIM casualty rates in #Mali tend to be much lower than in Burkina Faso, possibly reflecting the relative vulnerability of VDPs in #Burkina. The average number of casualties in Burkina Faso throughout 2025 was 4.2 per attack. In Mali, it was only 1.5

For the first time in many months, #JNIM claimed more attacks in #Mali than in #BurkinaFaso so far in September, reflecting the group's strategic shift to the country since approximately June

Videos circulating appear to show #JNIM's Sunday attack on fuel tankers in Mali originating from Senegal

Interesting new report from the Timbuktu Institute explaining the importance of #Mali's western Kayes region - important context for understanding why #JNIM has been focusing its attacks on the region and the south in general in recent months timbuktu-institute.org/index.php/to...

Breaking: #JNIM claims "significant" IED attack on a Malian army convoy accompanied by Russian Africa Corps troops near the northern city of Kidal, #Mali. Statement says attack took place on 9 Sept.

New photos from #JNIM's "Commander Mansour Ag al-Qasem training camp" in Mali. The group seems to be really trying to project strength in #Mali by pushing its training facilities there

The Malian army (FAMa) said yesterday that security forces were responding vigorously to "new tactics" by militant groups. This most likely refers to JNIM's weeklong fuel "blockade" in western/southern Mali (see below). Although FAMa spox downplayed the blockade as "propaganda"

Geographical map shows how recent #JNIM attacks in Mali have clustered around vital trade routes neighbouring to Mauritania, Senegal and (further south) Ivory Coast

JNIM's latest training camp photoset showing fighters training in the “Khaled Birinti Camp”, #Mali. One pro-al-Qaeda source suggested the name was in “tribute” to a famous JNIM commander

After almost exactly a month of silence, the #Syria based jihadist group Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah has released a new statement hinting that it had been absent due to unspecified "setbacks"

Today's front page in local #Malian newspaper L'Independent: "#JNIM strikes again near the capital... 40km from Bamako"

#JNIM claimed conducting an attack on a military checkpoint near #Mali's capital #Bamako late on 19 Aug. No casualties claimed, but the location (Kassela) is significant. Attacks near #Bamako are relatively rare

JNIM's coordinated attacks in #Mali's Segou region on 19 August (esp. those on Farabougou and "Tidal") seem to have been more devastating than the army are admitting

Second major joint US-Syria raid on #ISIS took place last night, targeting prominent leader Abu Hafs al-Qarashi according to local reports

and we try to understand its impact on local life and on the region’s complex geopolitics www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w... With #BBCMonitoring's @jboswall.bsky.social , Collins Nabiswa and Barry Marston Presented by @ikrassi.bsky.social Light visualisation, part 1: youtu.be/cgEkF4-d04o?...

Part II of The Global Jigsaw's double episode about al-Qaeda's offshoot in the #Sahel, JNIM, is now out. We discuss the impact of the jihadist insurgency on local life and on the region’s complex geopolitics which increasingly looks like a proxy war www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w...

The General Security Directorate of the Syrian interim government arrested the Uzbek jihadist Ayyub Abu Dajana, leader of the jihadist group Muhojir Tactical. I interviewed him in 2023, you can read it here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/interview-...

The latest #Mozambique-focused IS propaganda video ("The Light of Jihad") also took up considerable space in last week's edition of al-Naba

Another photoset from #IS showing members of its #Syria branch watching the latest African propaganda video from the #Mozambique branch

Amidst coup speculation, economic issues, and constant insecurity, #Mali's military junta has decided to return several important ancient manuscripts to #Timbuktu. The timing appears a deliberate attempt to reassure the public that security is improving www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a....

Jihadist mise en abyme. And a throw back to the earlier days of the "Caliphate", when #ISIS would film members of the public gathering to watch propaganda videos, branch members watching other branches etc. #Sahel #Nigeria

Russia's war in Ukraine started in 2014. #TheGlobalJigsaw looked into life under Russian occupation - this is what's at stake at the Alaska talks today. Crimea - www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w... Donbas - www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w... Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions - www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w...

Potentially significant military agreement reached yesterday between #Turkey and #Syria, coinciding with reported movement of Syrian government forces towards SDF areas in the North East www.longwarjournal.org/archives/202...

So far this month there have been two reported #JNIM attacks on sugar factories in #Mali's south-central region of Segou. In the first incident (1 Aug in Dougabougou) they took Chinese hostages. In the second, they also burned down a nearby financial institution.

A 🧵about the media sophistication and possible appearance of foreign fighters in the Islamic State's latest #Sahel province video, "Lions of the Desert" #Mali #Niger

IS Sahel (ISGS) has claimed to have killed around 60 pro-govt militia fighters in #Niger over the last few days, mostly around the Anzourou area of Tillaberi, north of Niamey