The irony of Orban losing big due to the large number of seats chosen through single-member constituencies and lack of run-offs when he previously changed the constitution to create more single-member constituency seats and eliminated run-offs. instituteofgeoeconomics.org/en/research/...

I know the world is going from one crisis to another, but I haven't seen much written about the implication of a shift to a much more violent world order. Violence has been legitimized in a way it hasn't been since the 1930s. The consequences have been minimal. The odds of war increase everywhere.

For anyone discounting the consequences of stagflation: Dow Jones was basically unchanged between the first Oil Crisis (1973) and 1982. That's almost a decade of 0% returns.

Strange how decreases in oil prices don't affect gas prices for months, while increases in oil prices affect gas prices within a day. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/b...

Dictators always claim that the tyranny is necessary for providing their people security. And yet, they consistently show themselves to be more proficient at butchering their own people than at protecting them.

What happened in Iran is the fate of any society where extra-judicial killings go unpunished. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/25/w...

Curious what happened to all the realists claiming that who leads a country is irrelevant and that all rulers pursue a hardcoded set of national interests.

During this time, the Germans managed to reach Moscow and be pushed back to Berlin - and Putin got stuck near Myrnograd.

It's amazing how the same people who had "crypto" in their profiles have suddenly transformed into AI experts. Can't wait for their next transformation.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg of recent crimes against humanity in Sudan. news.un.org/en/story/202...

If Maduro is overthrown, what stops regime loyalists from teaming up with cartels to seize control over chunks of Venezuela? And what would prevent a very violent civil war between various armed groups for control of the drug routes? No new government could assert control over the entire country.

Since it's that time of the year (when NHL fans have hope for their team based on its preseason performance), I decided to run some correlations between performance in the preseason and the ensuing season. The correlation is 0.08. A perfect correlation is | 1 |. For the graphically inclined:

Important lesson for ruling party elites who believe there's nothing to fear as long as they remain loyal to those in power. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...

Since Putin is basically acting as if we're still in the 19th century in terms of foreign affairs, it's strange that he doesn't apply a 19th century logic to his current war. Back then, if you wanted to achieve maximalist goals, you needed to occupy the enemy capital.

Nominal GDP (in trillion $): Sweden: 0.62 Norway: 0.50 Denmark: 0.45 Finland: 0.30 Iceland: 0.04 Total Nordic: 1.91 Russia: 2.08

Might as well have promised to attack Estonia instead of Ukraine next time.

A lot of Russian actions in the past 3.5 years have been pretty predictable, but if you told me that Russia would suffer ~200k fatalities (about 10 times higher than in the Afghan War) and there would be no publish backlash, there's no chance I'd believe you.

Am I the only one curious how du Plessis, an Afrikaner MMA fighter, has the same last name as the famous French foreign minister, Cardinal Richelieu?

Curious if anyone researched how the widespread adoption of first the television and then social media has allowed authoritarian governments to maintain domestic legitimacy through a more effective form of propaganda than what came before. The internet itself was generally too hard to control.

It's interesting how so many of the anti-migrant rioters (in this case, in the UK) have took part in the same crimes they're willing to riot over when committed by migrants. They share a profile with Islamist terrorists in Europe, who tend to have a criminal record. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Given that the Russian-sponsored far right candidate in France is currently polling at 50% (in a second round match up), I can't imagine how much resources Russia will use to get its candidate into power in 2027. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/e...

BRICS Brazil summit declaration condemns Ukraine’s attacks of Russian infrastructure in Bryansk, Voronezh and Kursk regions. No word of Russian attacks of Ukraine, of course. As if it is Russia that is a victim of Ukrainian aggressive war of expansion

After a lengthy intervention in the Syrian civil war, Russia has now seen three of its allies/key military partners (Armenia, Syria, Iran) get attacked in the past 3 years and provided serious assistance to none of them.

Let's hope Putin doesn't do anything rash, like shooting missiles at Ukrainian cities, kidnap thousands of Ukrainian children, or try to conquer Ukrainian territory. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Even in countries that recently came back from the brink of dictatorship (Poland and South Korea), the parties that enabled the path toward authoritarianism lost at most 10-20% of their previous support. This is in contrast to many communist parties going extinct after the Soviet collapse.

Any professor that bases academic misconduct reports entirely on an an AI detection tool should themselves be written up for academic misconduct. The false positive rate for these tools is huge. Not to mention that basic decency requires a more thorough investigation. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/17/s...

What a depressing story from every angle. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/w...

Horrifying stories coming out of Sudan, Congo, and Syria, but each barely made the news cycle. Given the current priorities of the international community (to the extent it still exists), the likelihood anything will be done is near zero. If anything, things will get worse before they get better.

It was obvious from very early in the Kursk operation that the attack was a political move with 0 military merit. It's quite likely that this move strongly contributed to Ukrainian defeats in far more strategically important territory. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/08/w...

Is this the country Western investors want access to? www.nytimes.com/2025/02/22/w...

What happens when the cartels retaliate? This war will be much harder to retreat from than wars fought thousands of miles away. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

The left map shows the parts of Germany with the highest percentage of Syrian refugees. The right map shows public support for the anti-migrant AfD. Something to keep in mind when reading stories that posit a direct link between refugee numbers and support for the far-right.

The DeepSeek news about the cost-effectiveness of technology reminds me of the old joke about NASA:

Not even one whole day into the new year.

Pet peeve: people blaming capitalism for things that preexisted capitalism. You think inequality, poor social mobility, discrimination, etc. didn't exist under feudalism or manoralism? When these issues exist throughout space and time, it seems the problem is much deeper than the economic system.

Sounds like an "I'm sorry you're upset" apology. www.bbc.com/news/article...

It's tempting to trust (and share) stats that reinforce one's preexisting beliefs. But that's precisely when you should dig into and find the original source. And if there is no original source, heavily discount information from whoever "cited" it. There should be a social cost for misinformation.

A Russian leader spouting anti-Semitic rhetoric is about as surprising as an American health insurance company refusing to cover a needed medical procedure. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

Curious how someone in jail since 2020 could commit espionage. Russia isn't even trying anymore. www.bbc.com/news/article...

I would heavily discount reports of any agreements between Russia and Syrian rebels. Until the rebels consolidate control over their country, they have a huge incentive to avoid picking unnecessary fights.

Russian response to America's withdrawal from Afghanistan 3 years ago. www.rferl.org/a/afghanista...

Can't think of many successful armed rebellions (not military coups) this side of the millennium (Libya is close, but foreign powers played a huge role). And now there are two (Afghanistan and Syria).

Syrian army command tells officers that Assad's rule has ended, officer says - www.reuters.com/world/middle...

It doesn't look like Syria's regular forces are willing to die for Assad. The real question is what happens when all that's left for the rebels to take are the areas dominated by Alawites and Kurds. Will there be some kind of a compromise or a major bloodbath?

Suggests the end could be nearer for the Assad regime than anyone could have imagined a month ago. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/w...

Live by the foreign sword, die by the foreign sword. Assad had over a decade to consolidate support. Instead, he continued to rely on Russia and Hezbollah, both of whom are quite busy elsewhere.