Vienna's Housing Model Holds Promise and Perils open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

Veteran's Day Post Are VA Home Loans a Good Deal? Mostly yes, with some caveats open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

By popular demand, my first foray into non-real estate topics. open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

Housing production suffers from diseconomies of scale, which helps explains high housing cost. open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New Housing Hell open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

I support proposals 2-4 on the NYC ballot, which would make it moderately easier adjust zoning for higher-density housing development. I have to say, seeing how controversial this is among people I know is giving me some new sympathy for the angry YIMBYs online.

New Housing Hell Tokyo is not a YIMBY dreamland, it's a deflated asset bubble. open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New Housing Hell I analyze the impacts of the Texas and California real estate tax regimes on housing production. Spoiler alert: Cali comes out better than critics would expect. open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New Housing Hell Vacancy rates a housing shortage do not make. open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New Housing Hell Stop comparing rent control in Argentina to US Rent Stabilization open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New Housing Hell Developers are not the enemy of landlords. Landlords are their customers open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New Housing Hell open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New article. SB 79 brings some welcome changes, but don't expect a building boom. open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New Substack Wall Street didn't cause the housing crisis, but YIMBYs still get the economics wrong (per usual) open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

New substack No matter what some YIMBYs say, the quantity of buildable land does not determine its price. open.substack.com/pub/precon/p...

JW and I have a paper on housing coming out soon, and we agree on this. I've thought about how land speculation would drive up rents, and I just don't see it. Quick thread

@jameskerlindsay.bsky.social Why did you take "statehood" out of your intro? Your videos on state emergence are some of your very best!

You remind me of the UK state’s fetish for signing long-term contracts for public services with private providers to avoid taking debt onto its balance sheet, then having to pay the private companies’ (much higher) finance costs/risk premiums instead of financing it themselves.

What in the actual fuck? You were on the campaign stage with Harris while simultaneously giving money to other candidates?

All through the 19th century, cause célebre cases of Antisemitism would dominate the headlines. European political leaders, be they elected or monarchs, would cynically condemn the injustice while simultaneously passing/supporting antisemitic laws in they own countries.

As far as I can tell, not a single Republican in Congress has said a word about Trump using the antisemitic slur "shylock" at a rally yesterday. I wonder how quickly someone like Rep. Elise Stefanik would speak out if someone on a college campus had said it.

Look, I hate Trump but the Social Security Trust Funds are accounting tools. "Insolvency" is a statutory issue. Meaning it's a matter of appropriating the funds. They are an intra-government account. They have no bearing on the economic ability to pay benefits.

It was discussed at length and the drafters of the 14th understood they were granted citizenship to children born to immigrant parents regardless of their status and said so at the time

When people ask me who I blame for the Israeli Palestinian conflict, I always surprise them. It's Germany, Russia, and to a much lesser extent, the UK.

Yes vacancy rates push down rents. It's why investors will never intentionally push up vacancy rates to a point where rents crash and their projects become non-viable. It's not a matter of anti-trust or collusion. Permitting data is public record.

Thanks, private equity. 😅

Nitpick on an otherwise informative thread, but this graphic implies that Nike can pass on income taxes it pays to consumers which is not true.

Sorry folks. Electing judges is grotesque.

Unpopular opinion: The Abraham Accords were a mistake. 1) It rewarded Israel for not annexing territory. Eg, for not doing a bad thing that it should not have done anyways. 2) It allowed Morroco to illegally annex Western Sahara in exchange for formal recognition of Israel. (1/2)

🐆🐆🐆🐆🐆🐆

Folks, we live under a monetary regime with built in increasing prices. Trust me, it's better than the alternative. Durable goods prices are the only category that has fallen in price and that's because we shifted to foreign labor that makes 1/100th as much as Americans. (1/2)

It's more subtle than that. Price increases, either for rent or to buy, is the biggest factor that drives private sector residential investment. Construction activity is the highest when prices are the fastest.

The fact that the YIMBY movement has collectively memory-holed the Japanese Lost Decades is genuinely hilarious.

The pound doesn't work for Scotland without the fiscal union with the rest of the UK. The Euro does not solve this problem. The Euro would not depreciate against the Pound to absorb the negative fiscal shock Scotland would suffer upon independence. Only a Scottish currency has a chance to work

One of the oldest arguments against giving any rights or process to the people we accuse is — one constantly “rediscovered” by the shallow and the dim — is “well they didn’t give their victims any rights or process.” That’s fatuous. /1

I really thought Trump was the biggest crybaby involved in politics. But Elon is making a run at the title.

Another masterclass from @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social youtu.be/fYnHfOS_D8w?...

He’s just now figuring this out

Bitcoin bros aren't the first group to demand the government fill their bags. Back in 1890, silver mining interests got the Sherman Silver Purchase Act passed, which required the government to buy 4.5 million ounces of silver a month to prop up silver prices.

Nobody more deserving of this role than @senatorheinrich.bsky.social. As a former mechanical engineer, conservationist, and lifetime sportsman, energy & natural resources are literally in his DNA. Our public lands and our energy future are in the best possible hands with his leadership.

I said exactly almost 20 years ago.

I called this over a decade ago. I said in 2006 that teams should be taking way more 3s.

It's terrible what they've done to our country.

Unfortunately, Biden not only kept Trump era tariffs on Canadian lumber, he increased them last August.

Left NIMBYs are wrong because they think social housing doesn't presenta it's own set of issues YIMBYs are wrong because they treat housing construction decisions as firms maximizing their production function rather than investors optimizing their portfolios.

Housing is a capital asset. Not a good. The threshold firms must clear to build housing is NOT Price > Marginal cost. It's Expected Return > Expected Return of next best investment opportunity in any asset class with similar level of risk/liquidity.

Somehow my account was used to repost a bunch of posts promoting an only fans account. Beyond weird. Changed password and enabled to factor identification.

Don't share your housing takes until you understand this chart.