With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.

Het Instituut @polscileiden.bsky.social is goed vertegenwoordigd bij de NOS uitslagenavond. Kersverse hoogleraar Nederlandse Politiek @sldelange.bsky.social is op televisie samen met Leids alumnus @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social (nu UvA) Op de radio alumna Josje den Ridder (nu SCP) en ikzelf

Voor de beste duiding staan vandaag en morgen overal politicologen tot uw dienst. Het zijn net pokemons, volg ze allemaal

Too close to call? Floridase toestanden in Nederland? Ik sprak de @nrc.nl over het fenomeen hertelling www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...

Election day also means a quick round up of my comments in the international media that have been published today. Pick your favorite language 🙂 www.bbc.com/news/article...

Ready to rumble! Live commentary on exit poll and results with @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social and yours truly from 8.30 PM till very late on NPO1

Onthoud, politici rechts, links en in het midden: "Democracy is a system in which parties lose elections" (Adam Przeworski)

The first few reviews are in for my book 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘋𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘌𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦 (Hurst/OUP)! Draper in 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘰𝘳𝘺: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Muzergues in 𝘗𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘲𝘶𝘦 𝘦́𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦̀𝘳𝘦: politique-etrangere.com/2025/06/19/p... Dressler in 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘗𝘰𝘴𝘵: feps-europe.eu/inspiration/...

🚨🚨🚨Announcing a special issue on “Political Violence in Democracies” published by @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social and edited by @andrearuggeri.bsky.social, U Daxecker, and me. In this very long 🧵, I will introduce the special issue with its 14 articles. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Interessant! @mrooduijn.bsky.social en @simonotjes.bsky.social zijn weer begonnen met hun serie "Plaatjes van de electoraatjes" over de kenmerken en opvattingen van de (potentiële) kiezers op een partij. Eerste aflevering: NSC.

📊 New dataset and paper alert! We’re proud to launch the Opposition Movements and Groups (OMG) Dataset, 1789–2019: a global dataset covering 1,452 mass mobilization movements. It was just published in Comparative Political Studies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Below follows a 🧵

Als je naar de huidige peilingen kijkt (zie de laatste peilingwijzer van @tomlouwerse.nl) ziet het er naar uit dat de formatie lastig zal worden. Nu zijn peilingen geen voorspellingen maar de trends (verdwijnen NSC, daling VVD, groei CDA,) maken het een lastig landschap.

In tegenstelling tot de gangbare Nederlandse telling, tellen de meeste politicologen internationaal een nieuw kabinet als de partijpolitieke samenstelling wijzigt. Dus nu Schoof III (VVD/BBB) na Schoof II (VVD/NSC/BBB) en Schoof I (PVV/VVD/NSC/BBB).

Excited to share my chapter “#Computational Methods in International Relations” is out in the Handbook of #IR. From Newton’s math to today’s algorithms; how computation helps us make sense of world #politics. For those into data, code & global affairs: doi.org/10.4337/9781...

If you’re curious the assassination of the IRGC commanders creates a rally around the flag. I suggest reading my recent coauthored article. #IRGC is not a liked in #Iran due to its participation in repression of oppositions. Some of Iranians actually celebrating it. academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...

Consider two photos: one of an immigrant mother being separated from her child and another of a burning car. Which leads the news? Which focuses attention on the harms of mass deportations? A challenge of violent protest tactics is that they often shift attention away from the injustices they decry.

🧵 New research on what citizens expect from opposition parties in democracy published in @wepsocial.bsky.social. @elinazorina.bsky.social and I surveyed people in Canada, Denmark, Netherlands & UK to understand their views on opposition roles. doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Media en politiek lopen weer als lemmings op 29 oktober af. stukroodvlees.nl/aflevering-1...

De Peilingwijzer is bijgewerkt met de nieuwste peiling van Ipsos I&O. 📊 📈 Alle cijfers & grafieken: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/ Bron Ipsos I&O: https://is.gd/EmlNjV

De trend van de PVV is in de recentste Peilingwijzer eerder omhoog dan omlaag, en van de VVD andersom, maar: beide binnen de foutmarge. Gevolg is wel dat de PVV nu duidelijk iets groter is dan de VVD (en GL-PvdA), want die verschillen vielen eerder binnen de foutmarge, en nu niet meer.

What happened in the Netherlands and what will happen next? I wrote a short piece about the collapse of the Dutch government for @ukandeu.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/when-not-if-...

Wat als het kabinet binnenkort valt, de peilingen van nu zeteltallen worden, hoe zal het kabinet er dan uit zien? Het kabinet Timmermans I

In de @peilingwijzer.bsky.social staan momenteel drie partijen op gelijke hoogte aan kop: PVV, VVD en GL-PvdA. Maar tussen nu en nieuwe verkiezingen kan er nog veel gebeuren. Welke onderwerpen staan centraal? Welk frame over de kabinetsval domineert? peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/grafiek_tren...

Dutch coalition crisis: PVV ministers exit government. Wilders had asked for additional far-reaching measures on migration, breaking open the coalition agreement. Other parties were not prepared to do this.

The PVV has left the Dutch coalition. What does this mean? Will there we be new elections? When? Who will win? Which government will form? 🧵

Seems plausible that future will involve post-college Advanced Placement-style proctored, subject-specific exams. Some research suggests national exams can help classroom dynamics because they put teacher and students on same team versus exam. Only works, though, to assess standardized knowledge.

Meta’s user-hostile approach to links worked for Instagram but porting it to Threads was a mistake. Sharing is core to being human and, for text-first social networks, sharing links is essential. Writers, media, news junkies, etc don’t want to live in Meta’s or X’s or anyone’s “walled garden.”

After a long break, got back to Bluesky and nice to see it is growing exponentially! Feeling more like old good days in Twitter.

For those who want to hear & engage with the latest security studies research in Europe and beyond, follow the European Initiative for Security Studies @eissnetwork.bsky.social , & to learn more about the initiative & our events, check our website eiss-europa.com/initiative.h...

I wrote a short piece with László Andor on responses to the Dutch election. Total Honesty and Far-right Lies: The confidence with which analysts have settled on the causes of Geert Wilders’ victory is misplaced. www.ips-journal.eu/topics/democ... Polisky EUsky

🚨🚨 Recruiting post-docs (or pre-docs)! Come work with me, Paul Atwell, Fernando Mello and others @ic3jm.bsky.social and pimlab.org in Madrid (UC3M)! India and/or CSS skills especially welcome this year, tho a diversity of profiles suitable. Full description here: www.dropbox.com/s/vk1d7h1vne...

New data alert! UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset (CID) is here! This global yearly dataset contains 14 832 conflict issues – divided into a four-tier typology with 120 categories at the most disaggregated level – raised by all armed non-state groups active in civil war, 1989-2017. t.co/3hrZxZr6Qo

Interessant onderzoek voor wetenschappers en journalisten met een (obsessieve/gezonde/gebrekkige) interesse in het opnemen van betrouwbaarheidsmarges bij opiniepeilingen. Kernpunt: het opnemen en bespreken van die marges is van invloed op hoe vaak kiezers gaan stemmen op de grootste partijen.👇

De Peilingwijzer is bijgewerkt met de slotpeilingen van I&O Research en Ipsos/EenVandaag. 📊 📈 Alle cijfers & grafieken: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/

I had the opportunity to discuss how India navigates its ties with Israel & Palestine after the oct 7 attack, with Nirupama Subramaniam last week for Awaaz South Asia youtu.be/pInc6vdrepE

NEW WP! What happens when wartime misinfo is corrected? To find out, @thomasjwood.bsky.social, Raushan Zhandayeva, Bailey Scott and I evaluate corrections in Russia, Ukraine, BLR, EST and KAZ. Overall: Corrections improve accuracy but don't affect which side people support: osf.io/efvsd/

Volgens de NOvA botsen de programma's van alle rechtse/conservatieve partijen op punten met de rechtsstaat (PVV, FvD, BBB, JA21, SGP, BVNL, VVD) & dit geldt ook voor NSC & CDA die soms in het midden worden geplaatst. Slechts bij 1 'linkse' partij (DENK) is dit het geval.

Happy to have a new paper out with the eminent Kristina Petrova! We explore the impact of disaster response on political trust in Pakistan and find that disaster relief can improve people’s evaluation of the government even in contexts of protracted violence. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Nu op StukRoodVlees: De Plaatjes van de Electoraatjes over de SGP en CU. @mrooduijn.bsky.social en ik kijken naar de mate waarin de kiezers van deze verwante partijen op elkaar lijken stukroodvlees.nl/plaatjes-van...

Reminder that we are hiring in international law or international organization polisky psjminfo

I made it here, too! Hello, Bluesky world!