Polling for LDP elections can help to show how the wind is blowing, but as Jeff points out, only members get to vote (and are actually very hard to pin-point in polling data so these estimates are always very rough). Plus, the decisive second round is very heavily weighted towards lawmakers’ votes.

Whoever leads the LDP next needs to balance holding together an increasingly fractured party with building alliances with opposition parties to pass legislation, as well as handling U.S. political instability and tough economic headwinds. Motegi probably ticks a couple of those boxes, at least.

I'd love to know what Suga and Koizumi said to him last night to get him to step down. My guess is that they convinced him that doing so opens a pathway to unite the party's moderates behind a preferred candidate - he's too stubborn to have given in because of threats of withdrawing support etc.

The Substance finally launched in Japan so we went to see it yesterday; between the dubious parables about eternal life backed up by body horror, and the copious amounts of wine we drank afterwards, that’s the most Catholic I’ve felt on a Sunday in quite a while.

Even as Ishiba’s detractors in the LDP furiously sharpen their knives for his back, it’s worth noting that his most defining qualities as a politician - boulder-level stubbornness and willingness to play a very long game - seem to be incredibly well suited to dealing with this Trump admin.

In Osaka for a few days; didn’t even make it through baggage claim before being hit with a drive-by Myaku-Myaku. (I’m not sure this little freak should be in charge of a vehicle.)

As ever, I am a trendsetter - whereas some millennials have become uncool, I’m waaaay ahead of them since I have never been cool.

The abrupt post-Golden Week transition from sipping wine coolers on a boat in Tokyo Bay to sitting through a morning of Zoom meetings is giving me mental whiplash. I just don’t think, at this age, that I’m meant to live an uncomfortable life, y’know?

Arguably the only silver lining to the Trump admin is that it's probably going to do to right-wing MAGA-esque movements around the world what Brexit did to the nativist stripe of Euroskepticism around the EU.

A collection of essays about Japan in the NYT? With an introduction by Pico Iyer of "the REAL Japan is when you make your wife translate everything for you for three decades" fame, you say? A lovely morning of dunking for GaiSky, but I think I'll preserve the remaining shreds of my sanity, thanks.

Process times at the catastrophically understaffed Immigration agency are now so long that renewed / changed visas don’t get issued until months into the renewal extension period (i.e., past the expiry date printed on the residence card) - an extension period banks universally refuse to acknowledge.

People keep saying these policies are out of the Gilded Age, but his statements make more sense if you go back many more centuries and think in terms of tribute, not tariffs. He's dreaming of obsequious courtiers from far-off vassal states coming to lay chests of gold at the feet of the Emperor.

Osaka High Court is the latest to rule that the failure to recognise same-sex marriages under law is unconstitutional. Today's ruling overturns an earlier district court ruling that was one of the only legal losses to date for the equal marriage cases. www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20...

The US 2020 Elections - @sjungkunz.bsky.social, @robfahey.net & Airo Hino investigate the dynamics of political violence justification & its connection with populist attitudes & conspiracy beliefs: https://buff.ly/3ZidmeI @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social #ECRs #polsky

I've been lax in plugging the Waseda podcast, but I particularly enjoyed this discussion with Prof. Liu-Farrer about migration in Asia. We talk about the artificial ideas of "skilled" migration, and how labour flows in Asia impact both sending and receiving nations: www.waseda.jp/top/en/news/...

Fought through crashing waves of jet-lag to see Sigourney Weaver’s last night in The Tempest - absolutely worth it! She was wonderful, of course, though the show was thoroughly stolen by the jawdropping set design and by Mason Alexander Park’s fantastically ethereal performance as Ariel.

I’ve been thinking lately that for all the focus on how social media has screwed up the information environment for ordinary people, we can overlook how much it’s also messing up political leaders. Thinking here of Yoon allegedly getting YouTube brain-poisoned into his attempted coup…

Doing our Christmas dinner on the 26th this year due to awkward midweek timing, but now I keep having momentary panic attacks that it’s Christmas Eve and none of the food prep is in progress. Perhaps I should sample a little of the egg nog to steady the nerves? 🤔

It must be the last lecture before the Christmas break, because we hit a section on Mishima Yukio and the words “oh THIS fucking diva” had escaped my lips before my brain even knew it was forming them. (In my defence: accurate and justified.)

Result on impeachment in the Korean National Assembly (200 / 300 needed to impeach) Votes to impeach: 204 Votes not to impeach: 85 President Yoon is impeached and suspended from office, pending trial at the Korean Constitutional Court

The Fukuoka High Court rules that Japan's ban on same-sex marriage is "Unconstitutional" (違憲). This ruling follows two previous ones this year, in Tokyo High Court (September) and Hokkaido High Court (March), which also found it unconstitutional. (1) mainichi.jp/articles/202...

There's good mileage to be had in placing bets on the next ambassador to Japan based purely on which of Trump's outer circle seems most likely to own a dakimakura. ... Oh god, it's Lindell, isn't it.

I've been interviewing researchers from various departments at Waseda for our university podcast series, and my first episode, with Prof. Marisa Kellam, was published last week. Hopefully my dulcet tones are more soothing than the grim topic of democratic backsliding. www.waseda.jp/top/en/news/...

Got out of the city for a weekend trip, nicely timed for the autumn colours! Lots of cities/wards in Japan own hot spring hotels in nearby resort areas which are steeply discounted for local residents - this is Shinjuku-ku’s ryokan in Hakone.

The shutting down of the Abe Faction of the LDP, which was dissolved in January over financial scandals, concludes today - the faction's offices in Tokyo are closing and its remaining funds are being transferred into the party coffers. www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

Drop your lockscreen Picture I took at the Cliffs of Moher a few years ago. (Also yes every class I teach titled <Something> Analysis ends up abbreviated like that 😓)

Post a perfect album from the '90s that isn’t Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, or Alice in Chains. (What an odd exclusion list - they're all great, but such a small corner of what was going on musically in the 90s!)

The scrum in the offices of The Atlantic over which of their pissbaby columnists gets to write this pitch has probably already reached the point of hair-pulling and nipple twisting.

My first reaction was to wonder when the Mail finally figured out that millennials are now in our thirties and forties. It’s Gen Z’s turn to be blamed for the downfall of civilisation*! * i.e., sad, dry sandwiches unadulterated by the degeneracy of woke avocados or the decadence of soft cheeses.

My ward (Shinjuku) just sent out a disaster prep package - disposable chemical toilets (usable when water is stopped), freeze dried onigiri, and an information booklet with local maps of assembly points etc., plus a catalogue of goods you can order to earthquake-proof your home.

FWIW, I think this is true in academic research too. If your paper title / abstract mentions AI, I'm immediately primed to expect a part in the methodology that's essentially "then a magical black box did a thing we don't understand but have made a LOT of untestable assumptions about".

This is a great explanation of the ¥1.03m "wall" in the tax system that the DPP is proposing to eliminate, supposedly to help low-income workers. They ran for election on simple, punchy slogans about this, but the reality is much more complex and their proposals are of limited practical benefit.

It's hard to overstate the intense focus of Japan's news media on trying to read the tea-leaves about Ishiba's (thus far non-existent) relationship with Trump. The airwaves are filled with pundits comparing lists of their hobbies, doomer prognostication, and over-analysis of diplomatic calendering.

Seen quite a few people trying out the "based on what you know about me make an image about what you think my life looks like" ChatGPT prompt, and I am somewhat pleased to report that when I tried it ChatGPT just whinged about not knowing anything about me.

IMO unless a public figure is on a moral crusade made hypocritical by their affairs, they're not really anyone's business - but if we're going to do social consequences for infidelity, Japan's "the man says sorry and life goes on, the woman loses her job and career" approach is truly the worst.

Sony's PS5 Pro launches this week, but the drive attachment you'd need to play disc games on it has been out of stock everywhere and going for 4x RRP second hand for weeks. Just the latest in a long line of supply chain screw-ups from them; when did Sony get so bad at being a hardware company?

Between the Japanese election, the U.S. election, and the endless joys* of academic job hunting season, I’m not even sure why I’m still tormenting myself by buying games I’m unlikely to be able to play this side of Christmas… * Joys not included.

Non-election Japan news: the Tokyo High Court rules that the failure to recognise same-sex marriage is a violation of Japan's constitution, but rejected plaintiffs' request for an award of damages. It's the second High Court to rule this way following Sapporo in March. www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

For those of you in Tokyo looking for something to do on Election Day morning, I'll be hosting Temple University Japan's official Election Day Watch Party with expert guests, donuts, and unlimited coffee:

The extent of the success of the DPP was the most surprising aspect of this election for me, so it's a little bit of a relief to find that it was also very surprising to the DPP.

Rather than continue spamming Bluesky with disconnected thoughts on the Japanese election, I connected a bunch of them together and wrote a quick run-down of the major winners and losers - including a few of the less obvious ones that may yet become important.

I don't think there's an official tally of vote totals from single-member districts yet, but I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation of PR votes to add to this chart. This looks like by far the LDP's worst electoral performance by absolute vote numbers - 2 million below the previous low in 2012.

The Nikkei is Japan’s financial newspaper and not usually given to big, tabloid-style headlines - opting for this style for their “LDP/Komeito Lose Majority” banner conveys pretty clearly what an upheaval this election has been.

NHK updates its forecast: the LDP and Komeito will get between 185 and 232 seats, falling short of a 233 majority. If it’s only a couple of seats, they’ll be able to make up the difference with independents, but a bigger shortfall will require a new coalition partner. Massive blow to the LDP.

It looks like LDP grandee Hagiuda Kouichi will hold Tokyo-24 by the skin of his teeth - with 94% counted, he's on 38.4% to the CDP's 35.4%. This is probably a preview for what's going to happen in many other tight races; the LDP wins due to opposition votes splitting among a bunch of candidates.

Not a whole lot of district results coming in at this point in the evening, but the CDP just hit 99 seats - exceeding their pre-election total of 98. Still very early in the night and they can expect a lot of gains from now on - CDP and DPP are likely to be the election's big winners.

This looks like it's going to be a good election for fringe parties. Left-wing populists Reiwa Shinsengumi will probably end up with more than ten seats, and both new nationalist parties - the hard-right Japan Conservative Party, and anti-vaxxers Sanseito - are forecast to get a handful of seats.

The first major LDP figure to fall tonight is Shimomura Hakubun - former Minister for Education - who loses his seat in Tokyo-11. Former Olympics Minister Marukawa Tamayo loses in Tokyo-7 too. Both are former Abe Faction members denied party endorsement over involvement in the slush fund scandal.

Polls shut at 8pm, and NHK's exit poll is out - it's putting the upper end of the LDP's seat forecast at 219, well short of the 233 line for a simple majority. The low end of the forecast is 153(!); with Komeito forecast for between 21 and 35 seats, it's possible the coalition won't have a majority.

Election turnout as of 4pm is 24.3%, now down 2.5% on 2021. More people did vote early this year, but short of a surge before the polls close at 8pm, we're probably going to see overall turnout numbers not much higher than 2014's record low. www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20...