New video. Great suggestion by a colleague to take on this topic!

Today's @axios.com Macro newsletter gives two theories for divergent GDP & jobs: Either "something's gotta give" and GDP will weaken, or jobs weakness is overdone. Not discussed tho: Concentrated benefits from AI & robust consumer spending heavily tilted to the top end. www.axios.com/newsletters/...

New term for me, esp. interesting in light of recent econ Nobel: "Involution" sounds like "creative destruction" on steroids. www.wsj.com/world/china/... "China’s economy is trapped in a cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits and fueling a deflationary spiral"

Do low-income folks get higher inflation? This week for an interview, I refreshed my data on "inflation by income" from the BLS research series, which is now current through end of 2024. Here's the *cumulative* price rise (by income) since Covid... (1/5)

@richmondfed.bsky.social John Bailey Jones’ latest research focuses on the surge in older Americans aging-in-place—a decision both sentimental and financial, with implications for housing markets and labor mobility. Read more in @jeffhorwich.bsky.social For All spotlight. https://bit.ly/4hn36dS

What are the major trends determining the course of overall #inflation? @jeffhorwich.bsky.social#inflationlooks at durable goods, market-based services, and housing and utilities next to their recent historical performance. The results show why this is a challenging moment for policymakers. #EconSky

Private data like Harvard Business School Pricing Lab is now as important as ever. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social talked with Harvard's Alberto Cavallo about their findings on tariffs and how to interpret them. https://bit.ly/42zz4NM

As we edge closer to A Month-Without-a-CPI (or PCE, potentially) these data could play an important role in helping policymakers understand the lay of the land.

I live in St. Paul. I know where the barges hang out.

It's glum out there, per new @philadelphiafed.bsky.social survey: "Respondents’ net sentiment continued to decrease and is at its lowest point since the beginning of the LIFE Survey. For the first time, sentiment is negative across all demographic groups." www.philadelphiafed.org/consumer-fin...

Emoji-filled look under the hood at today's #PCE #inflation at tariff-sensitive lines: Mild goods inflation continues, though appliances & computer prices retreat. Furniture 🪑& bikes 🚴 are popping, garments 👗now rising too. Coffee surge ☕️no surprise, but look at produce.🥑🍅

On the hot topic of whether there is *any* evidence of tariffs in inflation data, enter unique data from @harvard.edu @harvardhbs.bsky.social Pricing Lab. It leaves little question on that basic matter and sketches path of prices ahead for retail goods. (Spoiler: We are likely just getting started.)

The Fed's tools to conduct monetary policy were changed dramatically by the Great Recession--a shift described as moving from a "corridor" to a "floor" system. Walk the halls for two minutes with @jeffhorwich.bsky.social to get a little more #FedFluent about the Fed's operating framework. #EconSky

How much are tariffs passing through to consumers? In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.

Many Americans worry about saving enough for retirement. Could simple changes to #retirement savings infrastructure affect the number of Americans who are prepared to live well in retirement? Read more in For All magazine from @oiginstitute.bsky.social: bit.ly/3Ep09u5

What does research tell us about the complex landscape of incentives, penalties, and nudges that shape how Americans save? @oiginstitute.bsky.social Senior Writer @lisacamnermckay.bsky.social picks up the magic 8 ball and digs into the economics: bit.ly/3Ep09u5

Sobering piece on staggering societal resources devoted to helping the 1% live to 150. Wouldn't be it something to see these billions instead directed toward, say, fatal childhood diseases or childhood malnutrition? www.wsj.com/health/welln...

Curious now to what extent this trend might offset drop in labor force from changes in immigration. Time to play with some data...

It's my particular pleasure to write and produce these video wrap-ups of our "Beige Book" reports in collaboration with our skilled team of regional economists. Another way @minneapolisfed.bsky.social is setting the standard for public engagement on social media. Have a look/listen!

The spindly "spider" from @atlantafed.org is a terrific visualization. Updated today with new JOLTS: On every measure except for initial jobless claims and job-finding (where we are close), we are now in a less healthy posture than one year ago. Hiring rate is approaching a long-term low.

Hello, Bluesky.