ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) Update - 18 May 2026: A strong El Niño event is beginning to take shape across the equatorial Pacific. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/enso-el-ni...

American climber Shelley Johannesen was killed in an avalanche Monday on Mount Makalu in Nepal, CBS News reported citing officials.

Remnants of #Hagupit ( #05W / #Caloy) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11 (FINAL): 1500 UTC 10 May 2026: Hagupit dissipates in the #Philippine Sea. This is the last advisory. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/remnants-o...

Tropical Depression #Hagupit ( #05W / #CaloyPH) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1200 UTC 9 May 2026: Hagupit weakens to a tropical depression and may be dissipating. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

I don’t respect the decision of the Virginia Supreme Court

Tropical Storm #Hagupit ( #05W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 1200 UTC 8 May 2026: Hagupit starting to lose organization as it continues trekking across the islands of Yap State. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...

Tropical Storm #Hagupit ( #05W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 0000 UTC 8 May 2026: Hagupit a little stronger as it continues producing tropical storm conditions in Yap State. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...

Tropical Storm #Hagupit (#05W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 7 May 2026: Disorganized Hagupit producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the eastern portion of #Yap State willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...

Tropical Storm #Hagupit (#05W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3: 1200 UTC 6 May 2026: Tropical Storm Hagupit passing well to the south of Guam with no change in strength. Additional tropical storm warnings and watches issued for Yap State. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-s...

Tropical Depression #05W (formerly invest #93W) will pass well south of #Guam today. It is forecast to become a tropical storm today or tomorrow, but it does not look very well organized, and the poorly defined circulation seems to be decoupling from the convection.

Tropical Depression (Invest #93W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1: 1200 UTC 5 May 2026: New tropical depression forms well to the southeast of #Guam. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/tropical-d...

Invest #93W out near Chuuk is looking quite good right now. JTWC gives it a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours but it may become one much sooner than that at this rate. #Guam needs to keep a close eye on this.

The nascent El Niño is continuing to show in the form of early season activity in the eastern half of the WPAC basin. Invest #91W in Micronesia and another disturbance over the Marshall Islands could both become tropical cyclones by this weekend. Guam/CNMI needs to monitor.

And we now have the #tornado watch for today's main event, and today has already been quite eventful. A PDS tornado watch is now in effect for parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee through 11:00pm CDT. Multiple intense tornadoes are likely!

This is less than ideal. Wouldn't be shocked to see at least a moderate risk tomorrow. #mowx #ilwx #kywx #tornado

Fort Worth storm is trying to spin up another mesocyclone. This storm is trying to strengthen again and wouldn't be shocked to see it drop another #tornado if this keeps up. #txwx

Now downgraded to a regular severe thunderstorm warning. #txwx

#Tornado warning has been canceled for the Fort Worth area as the circulation has very quickly broadened. A "considerable damage threat" severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect for 2" hail and 70 mph wind gusts. Still a very dangerous situation. #txwx

Looks like the #tornado signature is weakening, which is good news, but this is still a potentially destructive storm headed for the Fort Worth area. Very large hail, frequent lightning, and destructive wind gusts remain likely. #txwx

‪PDS #tornado warning has been issued for Parker County, Texas, just west of Fort Worth. The Fort Worth area is going to get rocked, and there appears to be a large, rain-wrapped tornado on the ground.‬ #txwx

This may be the most insane radar velocity signature I have ever seen. Powerful thunderstorm likely with an intense #tornado west of Fort Worth, TX. #txwx

Some pretty nasty thunderstorms have finally made it to the #RVA area after getting through the cold air damming over the area. Not severe but very heavy rain and frequent lightning are likely. #vawx

NWS Guam issued their post storm report for Super Typhoon #Sinlaku (#04W) and its effects in Guam and the CNMI. The highest sustained wind was 113 kts (130 mph) on Tinian, which also had the lowest pressure of 915 mb. 1/2 www.weather.gov/media/gum/Tr...

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 (FINAL): 1500 UTC 19 April 2026: Sinlaku becomes a post-tropical cyclone over the cold waters of the west central Pacific. This is the last advisory. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/post-tropi...

Severe Tropical Storm #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21: 1200 UTC 18 April 2026: Sinlaku weakens to a tropical storm. Expected to become post-tropical on Sunday. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/severe-tro...

Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19: 1200 UTC 17 April 2026: Sinlaku slowly moving away from the northernmost Marianas. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...

Primary his ass

After blasting #Tinian and #Saipan with #typhoon force winds for over 48 hrs (and tropical storm force winds for longer than that), #Sinlaku (#04W) is finally moving away from the populated Northern Mariana Islands. It'll cross the northernmost (uninhabited) islands before heading out to sea.

Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17: 1200 UTC 16 April 2026: Sinlaku finally moving away from the populated Northern Mariana Islands after relentlessly lashing Tinian and #Saipan for over two days. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...

Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15: 1200 UTC 15 April 2026: #Typhoon conditions continuing on Tinian and #Saipan as Sinlaku moves slowly away from the islands. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...

Given that an AWS on Saipan reported pressures as low as 915 mb (after calibration) despite weakening, I confronted my worst enemy: math. I took JTWC best track data and other info from #Sinlaku at peak intensity and calculated a MSLP of 882 mb. This is probably wrong but I could see it being right.

Guam's radar seems to have been taken down for precautionary reasons but this last image from before then is pretty striking - once again, Tinian and Saipan are right smack in the middle of the eye of #Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W). (radar image courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social)

Some crazy satellite imagery of Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W ) - although it has weakened to a Category 4 #typhoon with 125 kt winds, it is still battering Tinian and Saipan in the Northern Marianas, and the large eye (still undergoing an ERC) is directly over BOTH islands. (images from Dapiya)

Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13: 1200 UTC 14 April 2026: Eye of extremely dangerous Sinlaku passing directly over #Tinian and #Saipan. Extreme wind warning issued for those islands. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...

The National Weather Service in Guam has issued an extreme wind warning for Tinian and Saipan for #Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W). This is the earliest such warning on record.

Super Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Advisory #11: 1200 UTC 4/13/26: Outer bands of Sinlaku moving over #Guam and the CNMI. Forecast to pass between #Tinian and #Saipan at or near Cat 5 strength late Tuesday night. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/super-typh...

JTWC Jan-Apr Cat5s: Surigae 195 mph Apr 17, 2021 Hester 185 mph Jan 1, 1953 #Sinlaku 185 mph Apr 12, 2026 Maysak 175 mph Mar 31, 2015 Thelma 175 mph Apr 20, 1956 Wutip 165 mph Feb 23, 2019 Isa 165 mph Apr 20, 1997 Mitag 160 mph Mar 5, 2002 Andy 160 mph Apr 21, 1989 Ophelia 160 mph Jan 13, 1958

#Sinlaku ( #04W)'s 18Z data point in JTWC's best track has been adjusted to an intensity of 160 kts and pressure of 890 mb. Truly insane for a storm in April; this would be lower than Surigae in 2021 that bottomed out at 895 mb.

Super Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 0000 UTC 13 April 2026: Potentially catastrophic Category 5 Sinlaku strengthens a little more while moving northwestward toward the Marianas. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/super-typh...

Still no signs of an eyewall replacement cycle with #Sinlaku, which continues to have an extremely impressive satellite signature. It should eventually start weakening as it moves over slightly cooler SSTs but it sure hasn't yet. Winds are still 155 kts.

#Sinlaku ( #04W) is an impressive and terrifying tropical cyclone, with winds of 150 kts. Realistically the intensity could be closer to 160-165 kts given sky high automated and manual Dvorak and D-PRINT estimates. Extremely dangerous situation unfolding for the CNMI.

Super Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9: 1500 UTC 12 April 2026: Sinlaku rapidly becomes a potentially catastrophic Cat 5 super typhoon. Typhoon warnings issued for Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. This is a particularly dangerous situation! willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/super-typh...

#Sinlaku's rapid intensification has been absolutely mind blowing. @UWCIMSS ADT analyzes it with a raw T-number of 7.7 (about 163 kts). Although the actual intensity isn't that high, it is very likely approaching super #typhoon strength. Very dangerous situation for #Guam and the CNMI.

Typhoon #Sinlaku ( #04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 0000 UTC 12 April 2026: Sinlaku explosively intensifying and now a Category 3 typhoon. Additional rapid intensification likely today. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/typhoon-si...

#Vaianu (#31P) appears to have transitioned back into a fully tropical cyclone not far from New Zealand. Despite SSTs of about 22°C, it has a deep warm core and a very compact inner core of convection with a small eye feature. These things don't normally happen in that area.

#Sinlaku (#04W) was upgraded to #typhoon status at 18Z, and it appears to be poised for rapid intensification. Microwave satellite imagery from about 1930Z suggests that an inner core has formed with a very small eye feature. This is bad news for #Guam.

I don't know, I think #Vaianu ( #31P) might be a tropical cyclone again. It still has a rather compact radius of maximum winds, a deep warm core, and plenty of deep convection near its center. It's certainly borderline.

#Vaianu (ex- #31P) continues to sport subtropical characteristics despite being over 22-23°C waters N of New Zealand, with a small core of deep convection just E of the center. Post-tropical Vaianu still packs winds of 55 kts and will bring dangerous conditions to NZ this weekend.

#Cyclone #Maila (#30P) has weakened at a spectacular rate, thanks to the combo of easterly shear and southwesterly flow associated with Tropical Storm #Sinlaku in the WPAC. It probably won't last much longer but the torrential rain threat will persist in Papua New Guinea this weekend.

Severe Tropical Storm #Sinlaku (#04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 1200 UTC 10 April 2026: Sinlaku continues to strengthen as it batters Chuuk with tropical storm conditions. willweatherrva.beehiiv.com/p/severe-tro...