With tropical storm 04B (still TD by IMD standards) a rare tropical Cyclone has formed in the straight of Malacca and only within 5° of the Equator, which is remarkable in and of itself. It won't be long for this worl but its mere existence is quite meteorologically remarkable

JMA has now also designated the system currently crossing out of the Sulu Sea & named it Koto (VerbenaPH). Some strengthening is expected but shear should begin to become unfavourable tomorrow. Koto also likely to get into a steering col by Thursday & may not reach the coast of Vietnam by weeks end.

The system moving through the Phillipines (VerbanaPH) has now been designated as a tropical depression by JTWC. While the system is forecast to become a brief typhoon in the South China sea, it is not expected to effect land as such and may not even reach land in the next 5 days. Next name: Koto

Cyclone Fina has actually almost reached Cat5 Aus Scale prior to her imminent landfall along the Kimberly coast of Australia. This was propably enabled by the unreasonably energetic waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. She seems to be on a weakening trend tho. Possibly due to an (attempted) ERC.

Fina seems to have briefly attained major hurricane status in the last couple of hours (00 ATCF 100 kts), tho recently the sat presentation has deterioated again. This intensity is supported by a 2051 UTC SAR pass and the very decent MW structure captured at around the same time.

Fina is currently making her closest approach to the city of Darwin, where tropical storm conditions prevail. Agency estimates place her at C2 SSHWS/C3 Aus. Radar reveals only a partial inner core and Shear is present but agencies indicate short-term strengthening regardless.

Fina has thankfully at most stagnated over the last 24 hours or so. The reason for this can be quite clearly seen on water vapor RGB, which shows cloud elements moving towards the south underneath the cirrus, indicating winds from that direction, likely inducing unfavourable shear.

Tropical Cyclone Fina has continued to gradually strengthen over the last 24 hours and some satellite estiamtes place it at or near hurricane strength. Latest JTWC also has a much stronger peak (near C2) and now has a strong landfall in Darwin Sunday night. BOM is quite a bit more bearish tho.

BOM gave Tropical Cyclone 05S the name Fina earlier today (first named storm of the season). Thankfully while the storm has gradually intensified over the last day, model solutions have no converged on lower-end outcomes. Fina is also set to effect a relatively sparsely populated area.

Wake up babe, a new Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert just dropped. Invest 97S looking rather healthy today, with nice rotating deep convection. Should form within the next day or two. After that environment should support strengthening to to C3 Aus scale. Too early for specifics

Interesting situation in Lecce province and its vicinity on Tuesday gives me an excuse to showcase my box sounding generation capabilities. If storms initialize, they could cause severe wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two can't be ruled out either if ICON/GFS verify.

Still looks like there will be some decent tornado potential in southern Portugal Wednesday night and in particular Thursday morning to early afternoon. This particular sounding for the general Lisboa vicinity but large hodos and plenty of 3CAPE across much of southern Portugal.

A SSMIS 91 Ghz microwave image of Typhoon Fung-wong, taken a couple of hours before landfall, very clearly shows that Uwan was in the midst of an eyewall replacement when it made landfall in Luzon. This cycle was however of course never able to fully complete.

A couple of hours ago Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan) made landfall in E Luzon on Baler bay as a Super Typhoon on the PAGASA scale. Winds where estimated by JTWC and PAGASA at 185 km/h (115 mph) 1 and 10 minute sustained respectively. Dangerous rain and wind continue across much of Luzon.

Fung-wong has seemingly levelled off in intensity now. Lack of symmetry, eye refusing to clear. Still PAGASA has upgraded Uwan to the stage of "Super Typhoon" with 10 minute sustained winds of 185 km/h. in their #9 Bulletin. Life-threatening conditions are occuring in Catanduanes

WOW! The latest SSMIS 183 Ghz microwave image of Fung-wong (Uwan) indicates a MW brightness temperatures of less then 110 Kelvin. Literally going off the scale. Just like with IR brightness temp, lower values mean more intense convection. Not sure if I have ever seen this before.

According to estimates by both JTWC and the RSMC in Tokyo Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan) has now reached (the equivelant of) Cat 3 SSWWS, with 1 and 10 minute sustained wind speeds of 205 km/h (125 mph) and 160 km/h (100 mph) respectively. Additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall.

At its current trajectory the eyewall of Typhoon Uwan (int. name Fung-wong) and certainly the typhoon-force wind field looks likely the slam into the island of Catanduanes in like 6 hours time. Wind Signal No. 4 is in effect, interests there need to seek shelter ASAP.

The duality of agency forecasts for Fung-wong (Uwan) rn. According to the best of my knowlege, the JTWC forecast (left) is the most bearish and PAGASA (right) is (among) the most bullish. PAGASA landfall intensity is between about 1.2 times and 1.4 times more bullish then JTWC.

Satellie estimates suggest that Fung-wong is rapidly intensifying and has now reached category 3 on the SSHWS. Further strengthening to category 4 (Super Typhoon on the PAGASA scale) is expected for Uwan prior to landfall in Luzon Sunday night.

It is worth mentioning that Fung-wong (Uwan) is and will be an unusually large system. Hazardous conditions will extend far from the point of landfall. The forecast graphic from JTWC does a good job illustrating this, with its blue shaded Tropical storm wind danger area. CWA has a graphic for this.

Fung-wong (local name: Uwan) has been teasing a bonified eye a number of times now and it's doing it again. Will it pop out this time? Only time will tell. It's quite hard to close such a large eyewall fully but once it does, Uwan should explode in intensity. Expect that to happen before I wake up

Just for funzies, I pulled vortex averaged box soundings of Fung-wong (Uwan) from HAFS-A and HWRF via sharppy to check the Equilibrium level. The numbers are staggering. According to these models, the EL is at least at 16731 meters. So no wonder cloud tops are this cold.

Another indication that the rate of strengthening of Fung-Wong (Uwan) is beginning to hasten can be seen in the structure. Very deep convection, more then ever resembling a bonified core and eyewall, is surrounding a central eye-feature that has once again begun to rapidly warm.

Another thing that is very impressive about Fung-wong (Uwan) is its outflow. Unsurprisingly for such a large system, it is also very expansive. Also note how feathery white cirrus is present and expanding in all four quadrants. An indicaiton that rapid intensifcation has begun.

The fact that Typhoon Fung-wong is located over some of the most energetic waters on the planet really shows in that the system is generating not only lots of deep convection but also extremely deep convection. Cloud tops are reaching almost -100°C, almost off of most scales

Fung-wong has now also become a Typhoon according to PAGASA (and CMA). It also entered the PAR and has been officially given the domestic name "Uwan". PAGASA still expects a Super Typhoon landfall and Signal 5 to be hoisted. Also warning of a life-threatening storm surge up to 3m

Fung-wong, recently upgraded to a typhoon by JTWC, is currently making another (propably more promising) attempt at eye (and core) formation. Uwan is still expected to rapidly strengthen and become a powerful and extremely dangerous (Super) Typhoon before striking east Luzon Monday.

Do you see it? The eye of Typhoon (foreshadowing) Fung-wong taking shape? Surely the time has come for Fung-wong (pre-Uwan) to start putting the pieces together. Convection has wrapped around the LLCC and is starting to form an 'eye(-like) feature'. Fung wong is huge tho.

Fung-wong (UwanPH) is seemingly making some real organisational progress today. Convection is really starting to become more centralized near the center lately. Outflow is healthy as always. Still expected to rapidly intensify and strike Luzon as a Super Typhoon (PAGASA) Monday.

It's imperative that interests in NE Luzon, especially Aurora and Isabela (also Cagayan) make any preperations they can in advance of Uwan (Fung-Wong). Models & agency forecasts, particularly from PAGASA and JMA continue to point to an extremely dangerous landfall on Monday (local) (1/3)

Thankfully, in part due to an eyewall replacement that failed as a result of impiging shear, Kalmaegi lost some momentum before slamming into the coast of Vietnam somehwere near Quy Nhon in Bình Định province. It would have still been a dangerous major typhoon tho.

As impressive of a show as Kalmaegi has been putting on today, me thinks that the intensity is now starting to thankfully level off & may decrease again slightly prior to landfall. That's because Kalmaegi crosses the 29°C isothermic threshold and shear begins to pick up.

32W Fung-Wong has been gradually coming together today and is now a tropical storm. The system is embedded in favourable conditons. Located over some of the most energetic waters on the planet, with low shear and moderate radial outflow aloft. It remains rather broad tho.

HWRF and HAFS-A have been trending noticeably weaker for 32W Fung-wong in recent runs, as it intensifies slower then HAFS-A in particular anticipated. We would still likely be talking about a Super Typhoon here tho. This is less noticeable for other guides like GFS and GDM.

200 mbar flow and divergence/convergence (with flow overlayed in wind barbs) at this time, as progged for Kalmaegi by 12Z HAFS-A.

Recent Microwave images of Kalmaegi show a robust inner core with intense core convection particularly south of the eye. Near complete pink ring at 37 Ghz. Also to note is the narrower portion of the eyewall to the east, which is the upshear.

Recent developments are quite concerning for central Vietnam were Kalmaegi is expected to make landfall. Actually some uncertainty where excactly that will be. Either way recent developments have made a major Typhoon landfall nearly ievitable. HAFS-A & HWRF for illustration below

Things are really escelating quite quickly with Kalmaegi (TinoPH) now. Recent satellite images have lead me to believe that it is a Category 4 on the SSHWS or at least very close. A very impressive episode of rapid-intensification, we are witnessing.

With the designation of Fung-wong by JMA, CMA also initiated advisories and became the second agency to specifically call for a 'Super Typhoon'. They join PAGASA who has already progged this, for what they will name 'Uwan' when it enters PAR, since yesterday.

BREAKING: JMA has now officially named 32W as "Fung Wong". Their intensity forecast hasn't changed tho, calling for it to slam into NE Luzon as a 'Very Strong' Typhoon. Generally confidence is quite high that Fung-Wong (then UwanPH) will become a large and very dangerous typhoon.

CMA is now pulling out the big guns and forecasts Kalmaegi to become a Super Typhoon on their scale tonight. Thankfully they still expect it to weaken considerably before landfall in C Vietnam but would still be dangeorus. That landfall notably seems further north than progged by JMA.

According to latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimates Kalmaegi has now become a major hurricane eqiuvelant Typhoon with 1 minute sustained wind speeds of 185 km/h (115 mph). That is already higher then their previous progged peak and Kalmaegi isn't done yet.

For what its worth, CMA is now forecasting Kalmaegi to go to the cusp of Super Typhoon on their scale and while they forecast weakening till landfall, Kalmaegi would still be a dangerous major typhoon (C3 SSHWS) when it makes landfall in Vietnam. Quite concerning...

Erm, yeah I think JTWC is going to take quite a big L on Kalmaegi. The storm has propably already blown through JTWCs peak intensity estimate. JMA and CMA already have this at T5.5 and I think they are right. Kalmaegi making a run at cat4 intensity at this time.

Recent animated satellite imagery does indeed indicate that Kalmaegi is propably rapidly intensifying at this time and is likely at least on the cusp of major Typhoon status. That unfortunately would lay the groundwork for a very dangerous landfall in Vietnam.

In fact, the most recent intensity forecast by JMA explicitly calls for a major hurricane equivalent landfall in Vietnam tomorrow night (local). CMA is also in that camp, tho slightly more bearish then JMA. In light of recent satellite trends, they may be onto something.

Typhoon Kalmaegi has seemingly rexovered well from its passage through the Philippines. Is likely now a Cat2 SSHWS again. A major (C3+) landfall is still possible tho with increasing shear and decreasing oceanic potential near the coast, it highly depends on short-term intensification... (1/2)

While by now we have learned that we should be a bit more cautious interpreting GDM guidance. All but 3 (out of 50!) members call for future Fung Wong (UwanPH) to reach Cat4 or 5. Ensemble mean highly consistent sub 920. Besides, the signal from traditional modelling is also quite strong.

The environment that 32W encounters especially during the next 3-4 days will be absolutely cracked. Low to very low vertical wind shear, very high oceanic potential and a favourable highly diffluent multi-channel outflow pattern. Super Typhoon still seems likely to me.