Similarly the northern mode also exhibits very high values of WmaxShear alone. This doesn't tell us anything about the kind of hazards, just that significant severe is likely. In the case of the northern mode, the primary hazard is tornadoes.

Dangerous severe weather day ahead today for the southern plains. HRRR model forecasts indicate widespread very high to extreme values of WmaxShear. This indicates a fairly high chance of significant severe. In this case primarily damaging wind and very large to giant hail.

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Sunrise update on Typhoon Sinlaku. Recent microwave imagery indicated that the typhoon was progressing through its eyewall replacement and may actually complete. However recent satellite trends cast some doubt on this as the outer convection on the north side has waned a lot lately

Typhoon Sinlaku has consolidated post eyewall replacement cycle and has settled into an intensity of 205 km/h (125 mph) acc to JTWC. Facing a reasonably favourable environment for the next 24 hrs, this intensity should hold relatively steady with accelerating weakening therafter

I had to reword this post. There seems to be some uncertainty as to the precise landflal location (if any) of Typhoon Sinlaku. While the JTWC reckons it made landfall on Tinian, the official products issued by JMA leave some doubt as to whether Sinlaku ever made landfall anywhere (1/3)

3 hours ago the VIIRS imager made this very high-resolution image of what was then Violent Typhoon Sinlaku, right after it had made its destructive passage through the islands of Tinian and Saipan.

Earlier today NASA'S Terra satellite snapped this high-res image of what was then still Super Typhoon Sinlaku in the midst of a prolonged eyewall replacement, as it was closing in on the islands of Tinian and Saipan. The dual eyewalls are very appearent in this one.

Radar data indicate that the inner eyewall of Sinlaku is now beginning to come on-shore on the islands of Tinian & Saipan. This should mean the return of very damaging Typhoon force winds after the relative lull that likely existed in the moat between the inner and outer eyweall

Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku is slowly getting ready to wrap up its eyewall replacement as its eye closes in on Tinian & Saipan. The inner eyewall starting to give way but still hanging in for now. For the islands this unfortunately means a potential double whamy of destructive winds.

About an hour later, NOAA-20 came by and snapped this high-resolution image of Super Typhoon/Violent Typhoon Sinlaku. At the time the official RSMC intensity had been held at 215 km/h (130 mph) 10 minute sustained, making it a 'Violent Typhoon', JMA's equivelant of Cat 5 SSHWS.

Forecasts for STY Sinlaku have continued to trend north today and while JTWC now progs a track to the north of Saipan, JMA still forecasts a historic landfall. In both scenarios the capital of the northern Marianas faces a likely devestating direct hit from this Violent Typhoon.

Earlier today the NOAA-21 satellite captured this stunning very high-res EIR image of Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku, slightly down from its peak of 295 km/h (185 mph) 1 min sustained but still displaying a beautiful structure at 280 km/h (175 mph) according to JTWC

After briefly recovering, the the satellite presentation of Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku has begun to deteriorate again in these last few hours and the eye's trochoidal wobble has increased (again). Indicative of Sinlaku slowly continuing to attempt to go through the motions of an ERC.

On agency forecasts from both JMA and JTWC Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Senlaku is forecast to make a potentially devestating direct hit on both the islands of Tinian and Saipan in less then 24h. For interests there, time ot make preperations to protect life and property is pretty much up

Some cracks are now starting to show in Super Typhoon Sinlaku's armor with the satellite presentation starting to show some of the telltale signs of (attempted) eye wall replacement. MW imagery indeed shows a large outer concentric band. May be a long one if it ever completes

More polar orbiting satellite images for Super Typhoon/Violent Typhoon Sinlaku. Looking absolutely stunning

It seems like under the prevailing low moonlight conditions the VIIRS imager's Day/Night band may have been able to make out gravity waves eminating through the upper atmosphere caused by Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku. Tho if anyone has another explenation pls correct me

Earlier today, the VIIRS instrument was able to capture the amazing structure of Super Typhoon Sinlaku in stunning detail. Especially in the first of these two passes that structure was very much textbook and in fact virtually perfect😍.

When I went to bed last nite, I knew that Sinlaku would become an absolute beast and boi did it deliver.Typhoon seaon hasn't just gone from zero straight to Super Typhoon but to 'Violent Typhoon'. An absolutely upper echelon Typhoon we are seeing here. It has likely levelled off now tho.

Typhoon Sinlaku has intensified very rapidly in the last 6 hours and is now a 205 km/h (125 mph) major typhoon (C3+ SSHWS) according to JMA. In these last 6 hours the eye has formed and quickly become well defined, while the CDO has also taken on a quite mature appearence.

Subtropical Storm Vaianu is about to make landfall on the north island of New Zealand. The system honestly looks as well organized as it had for quite some time but there are too many fronts involved for it to be considered tropical. It has an eye tho, which is cool.

The eye of Typhoon Sinlaku is developing at a decent clip and now the CDO is also becoming more symmtrical. At this point the system has propably reached the stage of Major Typhoon (C3 SSHWS) and seems well on its way to Super Typhoon status, perhaps even Violent Typhoon

Over the last 24 hours Typhoon Sinlaku has rapidly intensified and is now on the cusp of major Tyhoon (C3) status. Convective bursts keep rapidly wrapping around the dimple where the eye would be in a more mature storm. Track now further north of Guam for both JTWC & JMA.

I would say that that the trend is your friend if you are on Guam. Not so for folks in the northern Marianas. Od course interests on Guam still need to closely monitor the progress of dangerous Typhoon Sinlaku. Looking increasingly like another win for the newer AI models.

Throughout the afternoon (my time) Polar orbitting satellites took a couple of images of Tropical Storm Sinlaku swirling over the waters of the WPAC. As you can see the system possessed some extremely cold cloud tops during that time and it also had that classic 🍤look

Tropical Storm Sinlaku has already got that classic 🍤kinda look. It had a different kind of look but with the same implications yesterday. Seems like it is going through all the textbook evolutionary steps of a powerful TC in the making. Typhoon season gonna kick off with a bang

Of course it should be noted that Sinlaku isn't a small storm and by the time it makes its closest appraoch to Guam, TS force winds are progged to extend up to ~400 km from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 100-150 km. Some impacts to Guam are therefor likely, esp. if it misses to the south

At present agencies generally prog Sinlaku as a (very) powerful typhoon uncomfortably close to Guam on Tuesday (local). While interests there certainly have to monitor the situation closely, it is worth noting that confidence is low and guidance mostly bifurcates around guam.

JMA progging Sinlaku to become a 100 kts 'very strong typhoon' (which is just on the cusp of 'violent typhoon', the highest stage on the JMA scale) this relatively early in the game certainly does not bode well for Guam. Interests there need to watch this storm very closely.

Overnight near Bullseye VIIRS image of Tropical Cyclone Maila. At the time 1 minute sustained winds were estimated at around 185 km/h (115 mph) but Maila had already begun to weaken at an accelerating rate due to increasginly hostile environmental conditions.

Despite these hostile environmental conditions, Maila is still set to become the strongest TC landfall on Muyua island since records began, if she does indeed landfall there. Admittedly it would only be like the third landfall ever and the previous record is 30 kts (ESTHER 1969) but still.

Since yesterday, Cyclone Maila has really begun to suffer. Not only is she moving firmly over her very significant cold pool, where sea surface temperatures may be as low as 18°C now but shear has also increased. Weakening may be quite rapid from here as a result.

It seems like Cyclone Vaianu will impact the North Island of New Zealand as a subtropical storm on Sunday local time. This is indicated by both phase diagrams as well as vertical cross sections at Tau 72. JTWC reckons STT will complete by Tau 48. MetService will take over tonight from FMS.

High-res VIIRS Thermal Infrared and day/night band (DNB)showing Cyclone Maila as she continued to meander over the Solomon Sea this afternoon (UTC). All images are at 375m resolution.

Time to share some more high-es VIIRS images of Cyclone Maila. Unfortuantely, the best quality images were produced at a time of comparetively bad satellite presentation. These are at 375 meter and 750 meter resolution respectively.

Overnight Cyclone Maila has drifted closer to the Solomon islands then forecast. This has exposed her to some less used up waters, allowing her to stay at 115 kts. It has also likely brought TS winds to part of the Solomon islands. The cold pool has only grown as a result tho

Earlier this evening Maila reached the absolutely ludicroously exceptional intensity of 125 kts but now Malia has begun to weaken. This is propably at least in part due to the system meandering back west deeper into her own cold pool.

Near Bullseye NOAA-20 VIIRS images of Tropical Cyclone Maila near her peak intensity according to objecitive automated fixes. This time the moon was favourable for a DNB image, turning night into day and producing a true pseudo visible reflectance image.

Over the last 12 hours Maila has once again rapidly strenthened to her preliminary peak intensity of 110 kts. This may have been aided by her drifting east over less depleted waters. Lately tho she has been meandering west again and clouds are begin to fill the eye again.

Vaianu has now passed its zenith and its only downhill from here. Shear is now becoming rather hostile, with bare DLS values starting to exceed 25 knots and dry air beginning to encroach on the system. Even increasingly favourable poleward outflow can no longer offset this.

Tropical Cyclone Vaianu has been held back by unfavoruable wind shear, that is clearly only partially offset by high OHC waters beneath and increasingly favourbale outflow aloft, venting into the subtropical jet. Only modest strengthening is forecast from here.

Recent Microwave data from GCOM-W1 still shows the presence of a concentric outer band inside of Maila. This is indicative of an attempted eyewall replacement. However due to a combination of easterly shear and upwelling, it is having trouble undergoing eye surgery.

I think it is worth mentioning again how anomolous even a 85 kts landfall in Papua New Guinea for Maila, as progged by HAFS-A would be. The strongest landfall on Papua New Guinean soil was Adel (1993) at 45 knots. That being said, an actual landfall is not guaranteed at this time

Since yesterday, the intensity of Maila has more or less stalled. The causes for this are likely multifaceted. Persistent easterly shear has throttled her efforts. By now upwelling of colder waters must be having a negative effect and now it also appears like an ERC is occuring.

There is another powerful cyclone in the making and its name is Vaianu, located between Vanuatu & Fiji. Agencies were a bit sluggish on this one to say the least. Anyway, this too expected to reach major Cyclone (C3+ SSHWSS) status but is luckily likely to stay well west of Fiji.

Maila is hands down one of the most anomolous cyclones I ever tracked. Hurricane strength storms are already unheard off in these waters and aided by some of the most energetic waters on earth, Malia is forecast to become an absolutely unprecedented major (C3+ SSHWS) Cyclone.

Indusa continues to swirl over the open SIO, well east of the Sister Islands, today. She looks better then ever, with both a distinct eye feature quickly emerging and a more well-defined rainband forming on the east side. Consequently JTWC has upgraded her to a C1 cyclone.

Model guidance is in good agreement on a cyclone to develop in the Solomon Sea and it may reach hurricane intensity. There has never been a hurricane-strength cyclone in this part of the solomon sea since reliable records began, so it would be quite extraordinary.

Todays enhanced risk will feature decent instability overlayed with 0-3 km shear and effective SRH values well supportive of a strong tornado or two. High MLS magnitudes also indicative of threat for damaging wind gusts. It seems like instability is the main potential failure mode.