BQ-Liberal polarization in Terrebonne squeezes Conservatives and NDP Low Conservative support de-polarizes Toronto ridings, lets NDP rebound Here’s the hard data analysis on Monday’s three by-elections: open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Another month of jobs losses in Ontario But this time jobs in manufacturing and construction were only slightly down The jobs carnage shifted to workers in schools and stores open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Sales at Canadian bars are down, starting when cannabis was legalized. Sales at table-service restaurants are down since the inflation wave of 2022. Are we losing public socializing spaces? And is this connected to the loneliness and unhappiness Canadians report? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

UCP’s $10B deficit, driven by 41% drop in expected royalties, hits Albertans even as oil companies pump record levels of crude substack.com/@tparkin/not...

Danielle Smith is using outright lies to blame UCP cuts on immigrants and Ottawa Her increasingly radical UCP will echo them to further their separatist and racist agenda — and distract people from UCP wasting the Alberta advantage. tparkin.substack.com/p/danielle-s...

The “predictable, long-term” $30B Transit Fund was announced in 2024. But in Carney’s first budget it disappeared. Turns out it was merged into another fund, cut by $5B, renamed and promoted as a new “generational investment” open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Ontario still has the highest tuition fees, despite a multi-year freeze, which the Ford PCs ended last week open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Sponsorship aftermath: political waves Scandal broke traditional Quebec voting, creating conditions for political waves — Layton’s NDP in 2011, Legault’s CAQ in 2018 Full interview on YouTube and podcast

The rise and crushing fall of François Legault, with political analyst Karl Bélanger And, Nikki and Tom discuss Danielle Smith’s help for Jeff Rath’s separation referendum and the backlash on Jimmy Pattinson on news of a deal with Trump’s ICE youtu.be/hZfzoQxBvBw?...

Canada’s Defence and Trump Left East to West — watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get podcasts

This week: Canada’s defence in the Trump era Feature interview with David Pugliese award-winning defence reporter and author Left East to West is your weekly check-in across Canada and interviews for people who build this country On YouTube and everywhere you get podcasts youtu.be/_zJD4Ss23JU?...

I guess I should not have been surprised at how really good this podcast is. In a busy field of commentary, Tom and Niki stand out. The analysis you won't get anywhere else.

Canada’s defence in the Trump era Releasing Monday, our Canada check-in and feature interview with defence reporter and author David Pugliese Find Left East to West on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts

Introducing Left East to West podcast. Subscribe for your weekly check-in across Canada and interviews for people building this country Launches Monday on YouTube and all the places you find podcasts open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Trading canola for cars further weakens manufacturing, which has been left to wither for years Unless we want all the stuff we buy to be made in USA or China, provinces need value-adding plans and Ottawa needs to back them But Ontario has no plan open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Love Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social and the fearless dive he does into the numbers. I'm finishing my contract in Ontario and headed home to BC because the work has dried up. I'll miss my patients, families and colleagues. 💔

Toronto’s road safety changes are paying off Traffic fatalities fell to the lowest level in 14 years in 2025, except 2020 COVID, led by a big drop pedestrian deaths, down more than half open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

In 1985, US Coast Guard Ship Polar Sea travelled from Greenland to Alaska through Canada’s Arctic without requesting Canadian permission Canadians were stunned. But it led to a treaty in 1988. Will Trump respect it? open.substack.com/pub/parkint/...

Doug Ford’s idea of protecting jobs is pouring out a bottle of whisky made by Canadian workers using Canadian-grown ingredients This explains why Ontario has the second worst unemployment rate in Canada open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

In 1988 the U.S. agreed it would seek permission to transit Canada’s Arctic after the USCG Polar Sea crossed without any request in 1985, raising a storm Will that 1988 deal hold as Trump threatens Canada and Denmark’s Greenland? open.substack.com/pub/parkint/...

In 1988 the U.S. agreed it would seek permission to transit Canada’s Arctic after the USCG Polar Sea crossed without any request in 1985, raising a storm Will that 1988 deal hold as Trump threatens Canada and Denmark’s Greenland? open.substack.com/pub/parkint/...

Toronto was a safer city last year. Muggings, break-ins, murder, car thefts — all down, some by LOT! It’s something to celebrate — and maybe that civic pride gives a better chance of continued improvement in 2026! open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Lives lost to opioids and stimulants have fallen for a sixth consecutive quarter up to June 30 Drug deaths are now down 44% from the crisis peak Still, nearly 2,000 died between April 1 and June 30, about 22 people a day open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

December polls show Liberals and Conservatives down with smaller parties rising. But there was no election, was there? So are their notional gains actually bankable? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

PBO report: Carney’s budget cuts housing investment 56%, his vaunted Build Canada Homes will increase housing supply by just 2% Pretty far from his election promise “to double the pace” of housing construction! open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Urban transit ridership fell across major Canadian cities last year — why? In Toronto, the hit comes as TTC finally gets the capital investment it’s been starved of for a decade Whatever the cause, Mark Carney’s transit cut won’t help open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

GDP dropped 0.3% in October, the sixth month of decline in the first 10 months of 2025 GDP in Oct was $1.3B lower than January. We are in a recession, but the months of contraction are more spread out than the technical definition open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Conservatives lead among working class and poor voters, polls show But perhaps is it less a vote for the Conservatives than a Not Liberal vote — and the Conservative Party holds a monopoly on that? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Poilievre consistently points away from the real sources of working families’ worries He pointed at the carbon tax for inflation, at foreign workers for unemployment and costly housing Then the Liberals cut both. But working families’ worries weren’t fixed open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Trades get a lot of political attention, but in four of five major Canadian cities, almost all trades’ wages have fallen behind prices Premiers make “historic investments” in infrastructure with big numbers — but small impact for the people doing the work open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

In Ontario, building permits for condos have crashed from 4,000/month to near-zero and houses are down by half from over 2,000 What’s replacing them are corporate-owned rental, 75% of October’s units open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

The average of November’s 15 public polls shows NDP (+2.7) gaining, mostly from Liberals (-1.8), while Conservatives (-3.8) lose to Others, Liberals and NDP The Liberal rightward lean may create a path for the NDP to relieve its strategic voting juggernaut open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

The headline on November’s jobs report was 54,000 jobs added — and the PM cheered. But union leaders weren’t celebrating. Canada lost 9,400 full time jobs in November; the entire gain was part-time work. And 26,000 workers left the job market. Not so cheery. open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

PM Carney was practically popping champagne bottles over last Friday’s Q3 GDP report, which showed 0.6% growth But household spending turned down, capital investment was only held up by government weapons spending and the forecast for October is lower GDP open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Ontario, closed for business While business openings outpace closings in rest of Canada, business closings lead in Ontario Construction and retail businesses closing up But stay-in-Canada vacationing maybe keeping doors open in some sectors open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

McPherson narrowly leads Ashton in exciting potential NDP voters, but Ashton most exciting to those who might sign-up as a member to vote, according to Pollara poll open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

October was another horrible month for Ontario housing starts, pushing construction job losses to 42,000 Bit mysterious why some unions support a PC govt whose policy failure is killing their members’ jobs? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Housing prices continue to fall from a 2022 peak in most areas that fell under the housing bubble. Niagara prices are down 29.7% from 2022, Toronto is down 25.4% But in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which escaped the bubble, price reached new peaks this summer open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Toronto’s last murder was a month ago and the number this year is now less than half that in any of the past five years Murder and other major crime is dramatically and suddenly down in Toronto, police data shows What accounts for the sudden drop? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Doug Ford deflects about crime-on-bail though he’s the one creating longer bail times and has no bail-check program There’s strong electoral and democratic reasons Marit Stiles’ NDP should counter-attack Ford’s bail deflections open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Workers pay, unsafe bosses get away Though workplace deaths have increased, court prosecutions under the Ontario Occupational Health and Safety Act has dropped by half under PCs open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Doug Ford was celebrating these Oct employment numbers: - 14,700 full-time jobs cut - 20.7 million fewer hours worked The unemployment rate decline was completely due to a big increase in part-time work He is an unaffordable jobs disaster open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

After 10 months of Trump, where are federal and provincial Buy Canada provisions? Saw mill and steel mill workers lose jobs and billions in subsidies pay to counter Trump’s economic force against Canada But in August, $1.2B in lumber and steel was imported open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

After 10 months of Trump the PM still has no Buy Canadian plan and he talks about “generational” projects that won’t get shovels into dirt for years Where is urgency for the 1.5 million Canadians unemployed today? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

The federal NDP can build on two popular provincial governments, four official oppositions and 195 legislators A new federal leader who is an asset to them — defeating Danielle Smith along the way — makes them allies in building the federal NDP open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Poilievre’s wrong that population growth is causing unemployment — pop growth was under 1% last year But you can’t fight feelings with facts Can that feeling be displaced with social solidarity? Do demands for jobs and growth create feelings of unity in diversity? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Workers pay the price for Doug Ford having no jobs plan 47,000 Ontario jobs vanish in September and unemployment rate continues its two year rise hitting 7.9% Workers are leaving the labour market as jobs in manufacturing, construction and retail shrink open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

You pay for PCs dropping 338,000 Highway Traffic Acf charges, double the number from ten years ago 42% of stunt driving charges got dropped. 32% of charges for driving with a suspended licence dropped open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

To justify the UCP’s eight year minimum wage freeze, Premier Smith falsely claimed the Notley NDP’s increases caused “mass layoffs” of young workers In fact, there were 22,100 fewer unemployed young workers at the end of Notley’s term than at its beginning open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...

Doug Ford works hard to distract from his electricity muddle And Ontarians pay the price with money, emissions, and an uncertain electricity supply Ask yourself, how much should you pay for Doug Ford’s messes? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...