JUST IN: A 7.6 magnitude earthquake struck just off the coast of northeastern Japan. The JMA has issued tsunami alerts.

🌧️A sneaky freezing rain/drizzle setup is coming together for Friday night in Washington D.C., Baltimore, and surrounding areas. A glaze of ice accretion will make for dangerous travel. MyRadar meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6277

DMV gang – please share! INCREASING risk of freezing drizzle developing between 7 p.m. and 1 a.m. overnight TONIGHT! Very slick travel possible. Drizzle freezes FASTER than rain due to higher surface area/volume ratio with tiny droplets. Freezing fog/mist likely too!

Senior meteorologist @MatthewCappucci recently visited Chestertown College, where he delivered a guest lecture on the science of tornadoes. “He is an amazing communicator of science … and it has been very surreal to have him here,” Dr. Karl Kehm told The Elm.

YIKES. Can you imagine!? Parts of Alaska and Yukon Canada could face temperatures of minus-40º to minus-50ºF late next week! "As winds diminish toward the early to middle part of next week, valley temperatures in the 40s and 50s below zero are not out of the question." – NWS

We're monitoring the potential for an active mid-December and pre-holiday period across the eastern United States. Colder than average temperatures are likely, with an increased risk of winter weather and/or storms.

🌨️The first winter storm of the season is working into New England, producing significant inland snows. Totals of 6-10 inches are likely. 🌧️At the coast, primarily rain is likely. Isolated thundersnow is possible in Downeast Maine. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6276

Here's how much snow is left to fall in New England:

Maybe a lil' bit of thundersnow across Downeast Maine this evening? 👀 Will be intrigued to see if any cloud to ground bolts can strike the Bull Hill Wind farm owned by Hancock Wind in Franklin, Maine.

❄️A significant winter storm will develop beginning Monday night, then track up the Appalachians while impacting the eastern U.S. Accumulating snows are likely from Kentucky to Maine, with icing along Interstate 81. Meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6275

Here's a look at expected ice accretions in western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Locally up to a quarter inch. That will cause slick and dangerous travel. It may LOOK wet but really be ice.

Classic freezing rain sounding (profile) in western Virginia for Tuesday morning. A "warm nose" at the mid levels guarantees liquid falls, but freezing/subfreezing surface layer promotes freezing and ice accretion at ground.

Growing concern for the I-81 corridor in western Virginia on Tuesday morning, as well as the Alleghenies of eastern West Virginia. Freezing rain/freezing drizzle will make for very treacherous travel.

Freezing rain is moving through the Little Rock metro as anticipated. Please drive cautiously! It may LOOK wet, but actually be ice.

We are growing concerned about the Interstate 81 in western Virginia and even extreme northeast Tennessee on Tuesday. Warm mid-level temperatures will allow rain to fall, BUT it will freeze on contact with the ground thanks to subfreezing surface temperatures. That will make for dangerous travel.

Hefty snow totals with this last system! Here’s a rundown of amounts:

THUNDERSNOW! If you live in southern/central Illinois or Indiana, don’t go out to shovel until the snow tapers down Saturday evening. LIGHTNING is occurring and is hitting the ground.

NEBRASKA and IOWA folks – FREEZING RAIN likely this evening for Omaha, Lincoln and Council Bluffs! It’s a bit warm upstairs, so rain will fall initially, but the ground is below freezing. That will allow raindrops to quickly freeze.

Winter storm WARNINGS now cover Chicago, Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Springfield, Peoria, Sioux Falls… virtually everyone getting 6-10 inches of snow out of this, and some folks seeing 12+ inches, especially in Iowa! Be to your destination tonight. Travel will be a nightmare at O’Hare.

UPDATE: Amounts have INCREASED for virtually everyone on the map since yesterday. This is the National Weather Service’s forecast. Snow begins this evening in Iowa and reaches Chicago by daybreak. Be where you need to be by sunset tonight, because you do NOT want to travel Saturday.

This map shows the National Weather Service’s forecast snow totals. In Iowa, there’s a chance that even higher totals area realized. Confidence is increasing for 8+ inches in Chicago and Madison, the bulk of which falls on Saturday. For Indianapolis and Columbus, amounts walk a tightrope.

This map shows the National Weather Service’s forecast snow totals. In Iowa, there’s a chance that even higher totals area realized. Confidence is increasing for 8+ inches in Chicago and Madison, the bulk of which falls on Saturday. For Indianapolis and Columbus, amounts walk a tightrope.

Here we go! SIGNIFICANT winter storm shaping up for much of the northern U.S., Northern Plains, Corn Belt, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Confidence is HIGH in a significant snowstorm for parts of the Corn Belt and Midwest this weekend. The storm system will tap into Gulf moisture working northward, leading to a strip of 8 to 12 inches of snow. Locally greater totals are possible.

Confidence is HIGH in a significant snowstorm for parts of the Corn Belt and Midwest this weekend. The main wildcard? Where exactly does the low pressure center track? That will determine where the rain/snow sets up. That makes northern Missouri a challenging forecast.

Confidence is increasing in the likelihood of a significant winter storm across portions of the Corn Belt, Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend. In Iowa and northwest Illinois, a foot of snow is possible. Elsewhere, plowable snows will hamper post-Thanksgiving return travel.

Seiche ongoing! Check out this graphic showing water levels dropping on the west side of Lake Erie while they rise near Buffalo!

Seiche ongoing! Check out this graphic showing water levels dropping on the west side of Lake Erie while they rise near Buffalo!

Lake-effect snows will persist through Friday off Lakes Erie and Ontario... ...BUT the bands will only hover over a given area for 8-12 hours before pivoting, precluding a more significant event.

❄️Low pressure is continuing to pinwheel snow through Michigan, with additional bands expanding across the New York State snow belts off Lake Erie. 💨Strong winds are also expected, along with a “seiche”. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6273

Strong winds will push water to the east end of Lake Erie, causing up to a 6 foot rise in water levels. There could be some pockets of flooding near Buffalo.

Models showing some concerning trends for this afternoon, with redevelopment of potentially tornadic supercells in Alabama. New rotating storms fire as early as noontime.

🦃A pair of systems will bring active weather to the central and eastern U.S. — 1 before, & 1 after Thanksgiving. Snow is possible across the Midwest, Ozarks, and Tennessee Valley. Rain and wind elsewhere. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a brief national forecast. myradar.com/videos/6272

❄️Intensifying low pressure will pinwheel through Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan with a burst of snow through Wednesday. 💨Strong winds gusting 40 to 60 mph will follow as temperatures plummet. Meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6271

🌪️A morning squall line will push east, with redevelopment of scattered afternoon thunderstorms in its wake. A few rotating supercells are likely, with a couple of tornadoes possible. MyRadar meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6270

Midnight tonight, a cold front will sweep through Chicago. That will introduce strong west-northwesterly winds of 45+ mph as temperatures drop. Snow will be moderate in northern Wisconsin. By Wednesday morning, snow showers are pinwheeling into Chicago and Lower Michigan.

Two cities we're watching for travel issues – Atlanta, where severe weather will ramp up, especially this afternoon... and Chicago, where strong winds could cause flight problems. Check with your air carrier if you're flying through ORD, MDW or ATL.

Two cities we're watching for travel issues – Atlanta, where severe weather will ramp up, especially this afternoon... and Chicago, where strong winds could cause flight problems. Check with your air carrier if you're flying through ORD, MDW or ATL.

Alabama gang – not loving this. Infrared satellite suggests quick clearing behind our initial morning MCS, or mesoscale convective system (thunderstorm cluster). We'll quickly heat the ground and reload in terms of "juice" in the atmosphere. A few tornadic supercells later.

Concerned about probable redevelopment of thunderstorms, including rotating supercells, in Alabama this afternoon. Tornado risk is present!

At least EF1 tornado damage in the northwest Houston metro in Precinct 4. Photos by Harris County Constable Mark Herman. Damage was observed in the 8000 block of Summer Grove Circle. The tornado occurred about 3 miles north-northwest of Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Sneaky chance of an isolated clap of thundersnow in eastern Minnesota or western Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Why? A bit of "conditional symmetric instability," where parcels of air slide diagonally upwards in the atmosphere. Brief thump of heavy snow too! 5-10" possible.

Absolute wind bag of a system across the Northern Plains over the next 36 hours. Good idea to bring the trash cans indoors! The strongest winds actually occur *behind* our low pressure system/snowstorm thanks to cold/dry air advection.

On Tuesday, rain flipping to a brief thump of heavy snow will spread into northwest Minnesota, while a surge of cool, dry air rushes in behind the low. A burst of 45 to 65 mph wind gusts are likely across South Dakota, Nebraska and western Kansas, likely reaching the Corn Belt.

❄️A burst of snow will impact North Dakota and Minnesota, with plowable totals of 3 to 6 inches possible. Strong northwesterly winds will impact western Nebraska and South Dakota. Meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6269

🌪️Squall line with gusty winds, heavy rain/flooding moving through east Texas and Louisiana. Isolated tornadic supercells are possible ahead of the main line. MyRadar meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a midday update. myradar.com/videos/6268

We are watching two zones of funnel activity today. Along I-35 in Oklahoma, a few low-topped showers may produce funnel clouds or a brief, weak tornado. In East Texas/Louisiana, where instability (thunderstorm fuel) is greater, there’s a greater likelihood for a couple transient supercells.

6:10 p.m. CT update — some hail, likely to quarter size or perhaps up to half dollar size, on the west side of Lubbock. Fortunately hail size has waned some in the past hour.

🌪️Severe weather doesn’t vanish in the wintertime. In fact, there’s a secondary severe weather peak in the fall and early winter. MyRadar meteorologist @matthewcappucci.bsky.social breaks down this eerie “second season”. myradar.com/videos/6266

🌀Cyclone Fina is strengthening as it approaches Darwin. Direct eyewall impacts are likely. 300+ millimeters of rain and winds of 130 to 170 km/h are imminent. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a forecast for the Northern Territory. myradar.com/videos/6267