The tornado threat is increasing across the Deep South, especially Mississippi and Alabama. Several supercells are expected, along with a couple tornadoes. An isolated strong tornado is possible. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6500

Will we pop any supercells ahead of the cold front? That comes down to possible "confluence bands," or strips of gathering air. As air converges, air pockets are kicked upwards, generating storms. Chance of that in southern Mississippi.

A reminder – even if tornadoes occur, they'll be incredibly difficult to see and may be rain-wrapped. Why? Waterlogged storms. Tons of humidity, low cloud bases and grungy visibility.

Machine learning models are bullish on southern Mississippi as a hotspot for potential tornado activity today IF rotating supercells can become established ahead of a line along the front. The extent of prefrontal convection (thunderstorms) remains unclear:

A narrow corridor of tornado potential exists across central and northern Arkansas. This threat will continue after dark. The tornado watch is in effect until midnight. Have a way to be notified if WARNINGS – which connote something imminent or occurring – are issued.

Yes, it’s May. No, the atmosphere doesn’t care. The Colorado Front Range and High Plains are getting a significant winter storm. Denver could see a plowable snow. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6498

TOMORROW: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama to an Enhanced Risk (3/5, orange) for severe storms. Very moist, unstable air and increasing wind shear will support supercells capable of tornadoes, along with damaging winds into the evening.

Several supercells with hail, wind, and tornado risk are expected Tuesday afternoon in Arkansas. A couple hail-producing cells are also possible in northeast Texas. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6497

The tornado risk will be maximized in northern Arkansas IF sufficient instability (storm fuel) builds despite stubborn cloud cover. A warm front, reinforced by an outflow boundary (exhaust from last night's storms), will help bolster low-level spin.

In Arkansas, a few scattered hail-producing storms, including a couple supercells, are expected this afternoon. Any supercell(s) could produce hail locally up to the size of hen eggs or even tennis balls.

We continue to have concern that a couple severe storms may sprout in the DFW MetroPlex this evening. Golf ball-sized hail would be a possibility. We'll have a special briefing for the region soon.

GOES Mesoscale Sectors are now in MyRadar A more focused look at the atmosphere — targeted satellite imagery over areas where storms are actively developing. Now available in MyRadar Premium. What feature do you want next in MyRadar? Let us know in the replies!

A few strong/severe storms are possible between Kansas City and Springfield, IL, including across much of MO. Damaging gusts, sized and a low-end tornado risk are expected. An isolated storm is also possible in OK along I-35. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6495

Chase, or chase not. There is no try. May the 4th be with you!

There is a slight risk of severe weather Saturday across northern Florida, the Panhandle and extreme southern Georgia. Isolated damaging gusts and quarter-sized hail are possible. Tornado risk is low, but not zero. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update myradar.com/videos/6494

SATURDAY, May 2 could feature an isolated tornado/supercell structure in the Big Bend or Panhandle of Florida. This would be during the morning hours. We have a front approaching and a wave of low pressure along said front. A squall line will be ongoing Saturday morning along the front.

We are monitoring the potential for an isolated tornado or transient supercell structure in the Florida Big Bend or extreme southern Georgia. This would be Saturday morning between 5 and 10 a.m.

SATURDAY: A more organized storm setup is taking shape across parts of Florida tomorrow. A Slight Risk (2/5, yellow) is in place from southern Georgia into north-central Florida, with storms possible from morning into early evening.

Aside from some general thunderstorm activity along the Southern border of the United States, the pattern has quieted down significantly. Just in time for the weekend!

NEW: Up to softball-sized hail is possible this afternoon with rotating supercells over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley in southwest Texas:

A few strong/severe hailstorms are possible across Texas and parts of the Gulf Coast. Sporadic hail, some up to pool ball size, is possible. There’s a very low tornado/wind threat. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6490

The main hazard today is large, damaging hail up to the size of hen eggs in central Texas. We're especially watching the Highway 90 stretch near San Antonio westward.

One thing we're watching – through late week, a saggy cold front slowly drifting south will help to focus Gulf moisture, potentially leading to heavy rainfall from the Edwards Plateau through the Gulf Coastal states. General 3-4 inches of rain likely. Locally 6"+.

A leftover front could cause severe hailstorms to form across portions of the Southern Plains, Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Hail up to softball size is possible. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update myradar.com/videos/6488

Particularly dangerous situation! A PDS tornado watch has been issued for the Mid-Mississippi Valley until 11 PM. Multiple rounds of dangerous tornadic supercells are expected. Strong tornadoes are possible! @matthewcappucci.bsky.social explains. myradar.com/videos/6487

A regional outbreak of severe weather, including several significant (EF3+) tornadoes, is anticipated this afternoon. While storms are possible from Wisconsin to Texas, the greatest risk is in Missouri, Illinois and the St. Louis area. myradar.com/videos/6485

TODAY, Monday, April 27 – UPGRADED tornado risk across eastern Missouri, the St. Louis area, Paducah and southern and central Illinois.

Today looks to feature a regional severe weather/tornado outbreak across southeast Missouri, the Bootheel and southern Illinois. Much of the mid-Mississippi Valley will see significant severe weather. Have multiple ways to be notified of warnings!

The Storm Prediction Center has UPGRADED the tornado risk in portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma, now indicating that tornadoes could attain EF3 strength.

Giant hail — up to softball size — is possible in Oklahoma and extreme North Texas. Supercells will rapidly form around 3 p.m. The strongest storms could also produce tornadoes, including an isolated EF2+ significant tornado. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update myradar.com/videos/6481

Once again, we're continuing to monitor the potential for very large, destructive hail in Oklahoma and parts of North Texas and western Arkansas today. A few hailstones bigger than softball are possible.

Oklahoma and North Texas folks – an isolated significant (EF2+) tornado is possible today. There are two subtle boundaries along which surface winds are shifting a little bit. Extra spin along those boundaries may feed into storms, helping them to spin more robustly.

The tornado risk in southern Oklahoma and extreme northern Texas near the Red River is increasing. We now expect one or two tornadic supercells to form. Large, destructive hail to apple size (3+ inches) is also possible. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6479

Scattered severe storms are likely in southeastern Oklahoma, the Arklatex and the lower Mississippi Valley. In eastern areas, windy squalls are likely. To the west, supercells with very large hail. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6478

Increasing potential for cap to break in Oklahoma, allowing 1 or 2 supercells to develop. IF a supercell can sustain itself, baseball hail and tornadoes are possible. Tornado watch MAY be issued:

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains on Thursday. In northern areas, windy squalls are likely. To the south, tornadic supercells are possible — especially in Kansas. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6475

Another day, another challenging-to-communicate forecast. Unlikely the cap will break in most areas in Oklahoma. If it DOES, then lots of pent-up storm fuel will be released and form a mean supercell with tornado/baseball hail risk. Mostly sunny. Very isolated tornado.

Greatest risk of a couple supercells today, attendant with baseball-sized hail and a couple tornadoes, is in southeast Kansas along/southeast of I-35 and the Turnpike:

Oklahoma – mostly sunny with a slight chance of strong tornadoes. Yes, that's the forecast. Volatile "parameter space," or overlap of ingredients... but it's unlikely a storm can form given strong capping. If one DOES, it will be very high-end and severe.

While this model might be running a bit "hot", we still agree that the greatest risk for a tornado Thursday is in southern Kansas along/east of I-35. Farther north, windy squall lines are likely. But in southern areas, a couple more isolated tornadic supercells may occur.

Today is Earth day. It's incredible to think that combinations of air, water and heat are able to deliver every type of mesmerizing, terrifying, beautiful, destructive, elegant and otherwise surreal type of weather we experience. Our atmosphere is amazing.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY, April 25-26, will likely feature a classic Great Plains severe weather outbreak. There is an increasing risk of significant severe weather, including the chance of a few strong tornadoes.

From space, the full picture comes into view Clouds building Storms forming Systems interacting It’s all connected. And it’s why understanding weather matters. Happy Earth Day 🌎

A continued severe weather risk will accompany storms entering the Ohio Valley and Appalachians today. The main concern will be sporadic damaging gusts. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6473

Widespread strong/severe storms will impact the Midwest, Corn Belt, and Plains today! Multiple “storm modes” are expected — windy squall line(s) AND some tornadic supercell. Isolated strong tornado. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an important update. myradar.com/videos/6471

Numerous strong/severe thunderstorms are likely Friday from the Upper Midwest to the Plains. Damaging winds, large hail and a few strong tornadoes are expected. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a severe weather preview. myradar.com/videos/6470

Every year or two, Del Rio, Texas gets a large damaging hailstorm. Tonight MAY be the night. Isolated supercell with baseball-sized hail possible. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6469

An isolated hail-producing supercell is possible in Arkansas after 3-4 p.m. Large, damaging hail up to baseball size is possible. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6468

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may form along a stalled frontal boundary in New York State after 2 p.m. Damaging gusts, hail, or an isolated tornado are possible. @matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update. myradar.com/videos/6467

We're monitoring a differential heating boundary in New York State that may serve as a focus for several rotating supercells. Some tornado threat. Moisture has pooled north of boundary/hasn't mixed out. Convergence along boundary/extra helicity too. Video update soon.