“James Roscoe, the deputy to Britain’s ambassador in Washington, has abruptly ‘left his post’ with Foreign Office officials declining to give any explanation. Until his sudden departure, Roscoe held one of the most senior, high-profile roles in the British diplomatic service.”

“Two Russian warplanes ‘repeatedly & dangerously’ intercepted an unarmed RAF spy plane over the Black Sea last month, the UK Ministry of Defence has said. A Russian Su-35 fighter approached the Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft close enough to trigger its emergency systems, disabling its autopilot.

“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said every dollar paid for Russian oil is money for the war, which I think we can all agree with.”

“The US are issuing waivers on oil sanctions for Russia—a move that invoked pretty strict criticism from the UK government when they did it. We’ve pretty much gone and followed suit.”

“Moscow from now on never sleeps.” —Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces

“Xi Jinping told Donald Trump during their talks last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin might end up regretting his invasion of Ukraine, according to several people familiar with the US assessment of the Beijing summit.”

“During his summit with Xi, Trump also suggested that the US, China and Russia should join forces to combat the ICC, saying their interests were aligned, according to the people familiar with the talks.”

“A Romanian NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over Estonia. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry accused Moscow of intentionally redirecting Ukrainian drones into NATO territory. ‘We apologise to Estonia and all our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents.’”

Welcome to my TED Talk. Today’s topic: Taiwan, the UN, and how great powers keep creating “temporary” ambiguities that become permanent geopolitical traps.

The part too many people forget is that the government now based in Taiwan, the Republic of China, was not some random outsider to the postwar order. It was one of the founding members of the United Nations in 1945.

“Pew pew, mfs.”

“Ukraine is now launching more drones into Russia than Russia launches into Ukraine.” 🔥🐦‍🔥

Very happy to see ABC News Australia @news.abc.net.au now on Bluesky having X-tracted themselves. Give our national broadcaster a follow 🇦🇺 🦘

“In Russia, suspicious deaths are often assumed to be assassinations. But some members of Russia’s elite appear to have taken their own lives. Their final defection can be understood as an exit from a political order they no longer wished to support.”

“Reforming Putin’s rotten system is a fool’s errand. Russia will never be a trustworthy member of the family of nations as long as the Russian security services maintain their power over the people.” From 2023.

I contend MAGA was a revolution. “Countries that spring from revolutionary roots often create a powerful system of regime security rather than national security. They need to destroy any internal opposition. They are about protecting the leadership at all costs. Costs to the country be damned.”

“I saw firsthand what kind of people were & are running Russia. I came to the ultimate conclusion that it became immoral to serve them…Russia has been repeatedly raped & looted by its leadership… genocide of the Russian people by immoral criminals.”—Sergei Tretyakov KGB head of mission NYC 1995–2000

“The motivation of Russian sources over the years has shown uncanny consistency: secret Russian sources almost always make the choice to help the west after concluding that their system is evil & must be destroyed.” 1/2

“Russian spies have warned us again and again that the Kremlin is propped up by an evil state-within-a-state, and that Russia will never be a responsible member of the community of nations until its security services are destroyed.” From 2023 and still true.

“Two interesting things [re Ukrainian strikes on Moscow]: the psychological impact on Muscovites to see the war coming home to them; and, if more air defence is moved to the Moscow region, it gives even more opportunity for Ukraine to hit other targets elsewhere.” 1/2

“There are a hundred crucial ambassadorships that have not yet had an appointee named by the administration, including in the Gulf and including Russia and Ukraine.”

Ukraine is preparing for possible attack from Belarus.

Reminder.

“The United Arab Emirates said a drone strike had triggered a fire near its nuclear power station on Sunday, calling the incident a ‘dangerous escalation’.”

“Isolated Israel, its reputation in tatters, is overdue a national reckoning about exactly what sort of country it aspires to be. And Netanyahu, like Putin, is overdue a reckoning with the international criminal court.”

Trump is his own worst enemy. His rogue foreign policy—trade wars, climate crisis denial, abuse of allies, threats of imperial conquest, sucking up to dictators—has contributed to western dismay, pessimism & feelings of hopelessness. An end to Trump’s reign of error would help detoxify the world.”

“Putin’s presidency has never looked so vulnerable. The war is inflicting unsustainable economic costs on Russia, exacerbated by western sanctions. It is also an inescapable national humiliation. Ukraine not only survives but is more than holding its own on the battlefield.”

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has said that Europe should not fall for russian lies by entering into direct talks with russia while Ukraine is gaining the upper hand in the war.The response should be tougher sanctions, not helping the russians find a way out of the situation,sayd Tsahkna.

“The Ukrainian flag has been removed from outside Essex County Council’s offices by the newly-elected Reform UK administration. The Ukraine flag had flown outside the building since March 2022, weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.”

Dom’s video for The Telegraph discusses Ukraine’s Delta situational awareness and battlefield management system at 5:32.

“When fleeing, Dmitry left via the 6,000 km Russia-Kazakhstan border. To cross safely, he had to make sure he would not be detected by the thermal imaging technology so he took the extraordinary step of hiding inside a dead cow.“

#NafoArticle5 👇

“Dmitry Senin is a former FSB operative who fled Russia in 2022 after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He had the highest level of clearance. He spoke on the power structures operating close to the Kremlin. He believes powerful people & institutions are already preparing for the end of Putin. 1/4

“The war isn’t costing America $25 billion. It’s costing hundreds of billions of dollars and quite possibly trillions. We’ll be a country that’s poorer, more constrained, and living with a worse set of possibilities than those we had before this war began.”

“You can’t say a puppy costs the $200 adoption fee. My dog also eats, gets expensive vet care & demands toys. You can’t say a war costs the missiles fired. Wars create future obligations: veterans’ medical care, disability payments, make it harder to recruit > higher recruitment/retention costs.”

“War doesn’t just assume resources in the moment. It also locks in a more expensive future.”

“A very senior Western security official painted a stark picture of the war and European preparedness for possible endgames. This person was saying that they expect a culmination point is reached in 2027 or, more likely, after another winter, in early 2028. 1/6

“The US House of Representatives is tentatively expected to vote on the Ukraine Support Act. Supporters moved to force a vote through a discharge petition, amounting to bypassing usual procedures. It’s in 3 sections. One reaffirms US support for Ukraine & NATO & includes reconstruction measures. 1/2

“Mr Hegseth, Secretary of War as he dubs himself, has just made another announcement on top of the Germany withdrawal of troops. Another 4,000 are no longer going to be deployed to Poland. This has caused a huge shock in Warsaw & caught them completely off guard & no explanation has been given.”

“Secretary of State Rubio called Ukraine’s armed forces the strongest & most powerful military in Europe. He said Russia is losing 5x as many soldiers/mth as Ukraine—a smaller country & army. They have developed new tactics, techniques, equipment & technology causing a hybrid asymmetrical warfare.”

“Yesterday, Russia attacked another UN humanitarian mission. A vehicle convoy delivering humanitarian aid in Khazan was hit twice by FPV drones. The point there: first person view, flown into a vehicle that clearly has UN on the side of it.”

“The incursion of Ukrainian drones in Latvian airspace a couple of weeks ago has sparked a political crisis in Latvia, leading to the Prime Minister’s resignation. Several drones entered Latvian airspace from Russia on 7 May. 2 crashed into an oil storage facility. 1/3

“Trump was asked directly whether he had agreed with the Russians to put pressure on the Ukrainians to give up Donbass, as some reports suggested. He categorically denied that. So he may have done this secret deal & is now thinking, I better withdraw from any kind of responsibility for that.”

“All this might explain why Putin suggested during a press conference last week the war is coming to an end—because he’s finally realised perhaps he’s losing & the terms recently on offer may be the best he can get. 1/

“A guest essay in The Economist: ‘a former senior official in the Russian government argues that Vladimir Putin is losing his grip’ starts off with the way officials no longer talk about ‘we’re’ doing this but about ‘him’: they’re awarding Putin ownership of the war — which is only the truth. 1/

The Trump administration continues to take incomprehensible steps that weaken the US, to the delight of Russia and China. Latest: US Army abruptly cancels deployment of 4,000 soldiers to Poland www.armytimes.com/news/your-ar...

“Putin did look old, ill and—one might conjecture—frightened. With rumours of a coup last week, it seems like this is very much impacting the way he holds himself. He was ushered away with unseemly haste by a bunch of bodyguards. As a projection of Russian power, the whole parade was a fiasco. 1/3

“Something feels different. It began with Putin’s bizarre performance of the victory parade. First we had the Kremlin announcing that no weapons would be paraded, just men, and none of those Russian soldiers, presumably because they couldn’t be spared. Then Putin himself requested a 2-day truce 1/4

“So it’s come to this, after all these years, that Zelensky, a man with no cards in his hand, has been begged by two presidents not to ruin Putin’s scaled-back victory parade.”

“China sees Iran having a nuclear bomb might establish deterrence vis-a-vis US & Israel that makes these think twice in future before attacking. This can encourage China’s rivals in the Indo-Pacific—Japan, Australia, South Korea—to pursue the same target to establish deterrence vis-a-vis China.”