The American operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was not as unusual as we like to think. But for the first time, we have a US president who doesn't see Europe as an ally - and is just as willing as his predecessors to use force. open.substack.com/pub/thesenti...

Europe's fragmented arms industry is much more pronounced on land than in the air, with companies like Airbus showing what cross-border integration could look like, writes Aurora d'Auria from Finabel in this guest op-ed: open.substack.com/pub/thesenti...

Donald Trump's National Security Strategy has jolted Europeans from their strategic slumber - but perhaps not in the way the US president hoped for. Rather than falling into line as usual, European leaders have started to see the US itself as a destabilising force. open.substack.com/pub/thesenti...

Introducing The Sentinel, a new publication tracking Europe's rearmament. The US surrender plan for Ukraine shows that the time has come for Europe to look to its own defence. The Sentinel will be following. Free newsletter now, and full launch in 2026. www.the-sentinel.media/p/the-sentin...

I'm going to set up a new page here for The Sentinel. Does anyone have a list of accounts to follow on European defence, please?

I have entered the air conditioning discourse open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

Some things I learned living in the Middle East, travelling in India and studying lots of languages - and why they're more relevant than ever today. www.theleopard.eu/p/race-relig...

Good morning, America! I need you to like this essay so people in Europe can read it. Thank you for your attention to this matter. www.theleopard.eu/p/american-f...

What a viral essay taught me about Europe's economy: If you want to conquer Europe, get big in America first. www.theleopard.eu/p/american-f...

Jeremy Corbyn splits the UK left with a new pro-Palestine vehicle, helping Nigel Farage on his way to Number 10. And it just so happens that I had drafted an essay on how Palestine activism has taken over the European left: open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

A big chunk of creative work is done away from the office. As AI takes away mundane tasks and frees us think more deeply, spending eight hours at the office isn't just unnecessary - it's a hindrance to the creative process. New essay: open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

The Liverpool ramming attack wasn't entirely apolitical - it was the natural extension of embedded, and sometimes violent, driver entitlement. New essay: www.theleopard.eu/p/militant-c...

Why do so many people in the West hate their own civilisation? I argue it's because of a lopsided teaching of history and culture, where the West gets an interrogation and other peoples get a hagiography. New essay: open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

I never doubted you for a second @economist.com

The global flood of misinformation could revive a dying breed: the foreign correspondent. Not long ago, the value of having a trusted reporter on the ground was in freefall as reliable information flowed on social media. Fake news is reversing that trend. open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

Too much stuff? Most cities in Europe provide you with a large storage space in front of your house for a token fee. You can put anything there so long as it's in a car.

The most dangerous racists are the people who think they can't possibly be racist. This week's essay: open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

The markets right now

I want my 55% tax back (Nala loves it but she doesn't pay tax)

An essay on the joy and toil of writing essays, with a digression into the Substack economy. Tl/dr: Work is really busy so I can't publish every week for the next few months. Going to prioritise quality over quantity and slow down a bit. open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

The death of Twitter left a void that hasn't adequately been filled. I've previously written (/moaned) about BlueSky and now it's the turn of LinkedIn - a place where people are posting more and more about politics but haven't shed their corporate masks. open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

My pet hate is when websites lock their language options to the country you're in. Why?!

Europeans are too often passive consumers of technology, media and culture made by and for Americans. This not only makes us dependent on the US, it impoverishes our culture and stops us reaching our full potential. This week's essay: www.theleopard.eu/p/the-inesca...

Good example of the awful journalistic habit of writing 'Brussels' when you mean 'EU' (which is shorter!) I read the first half of this headline and thought the city was doing an amnesty to stop the gun crime epidemic. Why not just 'EU proposes collective weapon purchases for member states'?

The importance of security to sustainable urbanism. Alternatives to car ownership are unviable in the absence of law and order. Stolen bicycles and violence on the metro drive people back into cars. Vandalism kills scooter and car rental companies. This is how Green politics lost Brussels.

Welcome to Brussels, where the enforcement of the law is rare enough to be newsworthy. Next up, drunk driver fined €10 and told to be careful driving home!

Trees vs cars - which would you rather in your city? One year since my last spring clean, these are my windows. On the left faces a courtyard with lots of trees. On the right faces a street with cars. We tolerate this so one-half of people can 'just get to work' in a massive metal box.

Very good essay by @ldfreedman.bsky.social here. Perhaps we should start calling POTUS the 'follower of the free world', that might just trigger the Americans enough.

We need better climate activists. www.theleopard.eu/p/the-strang...

Dear hivemind, can anyone recommend books or podcasts on the rise of Mussolini and Italian fascism? Realised that I know the German history very well but almost nothing about Italy in the same period. Thanks in advance.

Started active investing last year and honestly pretty happy that my first 2x trade is contributing to the defence of Europe. Ethical investing can be profitable too 🙂

I'm getting a lot of hate on here for my last post. But the essay it links to has had no more readers than I normally get by midday on Monday. Which suggests lots of people are piling onto me on the basis of 280 characters, rather than 1,500 carefully written words. *sigh*

One-fifth of German voters now support a party that all others consider too extreme to govern with. I don't believe one-fifth of Germans are fascist/racist/any other -ist, but they are concerned. It's time to have the uncomfortable conversations that voters demand. open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

guard dog / fren

Minimum security detail to go for a walk in Brussels

I've been giving the Substack some love including this new welcome email. Here you'll find links to some of my most successful essays, along with a short explanation of what they're about and why I think they struck a chord. In other words, it's a perfect time to sign up!

Historians are a more useful guide to current affairs than political 'insiders' at times of significant change, when a broad lens is called for. A tangential observation from this week's essay.

With the US security umbrella ripped away Europe looks much like it did in 1938: menaced by an expansionist dictator, capable of stopping him but unable yet to make the necessary tough decisions. Will we wake up in time, or will hope triumph over experience? www.theleopard.eu/p/europes-mu...

Remember that Nazi Germany annexed *all* of Czechoslovakia just six months after taking the Sudetenland in the Munich Agreement. If Trump forces peace now, and denies Ukraine NATO membership, the whole country could soon fall. If Europe wants to prevent that, it needs to tool up. Right now.

Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat its mistakes. Those who *do* study history are doomed to stand by helplessly and watch others repeat its mistakes.

Interesting speculation from @thebenedictevans.bsky.social that Apple and Samsung might skip the European market for new handsets because of USB-C regulation. After delays to Apple and Meta AI products coming to Europe because of the DMA, could we start to be left out of hardware as well?

A bright 29-year-old has had his career derailed simply for being in a WhatsApp group where *other people* sent 'offensive' messages 3+ years ago. He could hardly leave - the group was created by his then-boss. And we wonder why capable people don't go into public life.

A short guide to Iran, the world's most enigmatic country, from the Cyrus Cylinder to nuclear weapons. open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

Can't have nice things update: the supermarket in my (fairly nice) part of Brussels has hidden the razor blades and restricted access to self-checkout.

Trump’s threat to annex Gaza may be an attempt to get others, notably Saudi Arabia, to propose a better solution. This would be a good thing. That seems to be the Trump playbook: bring your opponents to the table with a maximalist or even outrageous position, then negotiate a deal.

... am I a robot?

I'm starting to see Substack Notes as my favourite Twitter replacement. Some advantages compared to X and BlueSky: - Less of a bubble (X & BS now skew strongly right/left respectively imo) - Most people write longform: ideas are more developed - Better UX for attaching photos, links, quotations etc.

Some evidence from this week’s Economist that fewer outdated regulations are being cut, even as more as being constantly added. The article is written from an American perspective; presumably the situation in Europe is even worse. www.economist.com/briefing/202...

With the world changing at warp speed, everyone should read more science fiction. It's home to interesting ideas beyond conventional politics and economics. This week's essay is an optimistic view of demographic and technological change: open.substack.com/pub/theleopa...

POV: You know how to get money out of Belgium before the new government takes office